Simplicity is the Key

Quoting jac28403

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Hi trader101,

I just started reading this thread yesterday. I've been realy impressed with how well you've kept on top of things. I also find it interesting that in many of your posts you mention alot about time. I've always been fascinated how people use time as an element in their trading strategy. All you usually ever hear is price. I've always wanted to learn how time can be used as part of disecting the a market. Keep up the great work and I look forward to next week.

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Quoting trader101

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Hello,
I was thinking of writing this topic last week but i was short of time then, now i have that extra time to bring to you this topic.
--I know, one way or another you have been toying the idea or already subscribing to a website that offers a "reliable" signal whose subscription ranges from 150 to 300 bucks. They normally advertise the 80-90% success rate and even attached some performance table showing they are making like 500-600 pips a month. I am not saying that they are scam of not. What i want to bring out here is the analysis of how they are making thier signals. Some signalling businesses are not doing the analysis themselves, rather they buy it from somebody for a certain fee and then send these signals to their subscribers. They are making a hefty profit for this.There are also some companies that they have their in-house kind of technical group that generate these signals to be send to thier subscribers. This technical group that they have are being pressured to generate the signals because of the promise to their subscriber of at least 2 signals a day. So what happend, this poor guys working with them will just generate signals even if it is not reliable. You cannot dictate the price movements of a certain currency pair, nor tell it to trend. Signals doesnt come 2 times a day as they promise to thier subscriber.

One thing, I notice in this signalling system is they always try to predict the peak of uptrend or downtrend using the retracement method and then set their signal say BUY EUR/USD @1.2890 SL 1.2860 TP 1.2950 , but if you further analyze the signal given, it is 500 pips(exaggerated) away from the current price.Theyll say "Well if it hits, it hits". You on the other hand create a limit order that was not hit for a week and you get bored waiting for it to hit and cancell the order after 2 days of waiting, because you want to trade and will not tie-down you margin to this limit oder if there is some opportunity to trade. Then after the 4 days it hits while you are in another trade. Damn, i should not traded this one. You call your signalling company, they say "You should budget your margins properly and plan your trade".

Because of this, the sytem that i am testing now, is trying to get the waistline of the trend rather than the peak, which is quicker to hit, not days of waiting but minutes, hours at most. Then I ride the trend to the peak which normally delivers about 50 pips. Once i catch the correct location of the trend waistline, determining the peak is easy. After reaching the peak, my other system of trend reversal will take over and ride it to the opposite direction. The second system ( trend reversal) is still in the develomental stage which eventually i am going to test it also in this Forum.

My advice to those who are buying these signals, make your analysis too, is this signal they are giving you is for real???Ask yourself.. If they are giving you signals which is 500 pips away from the current price, then they are giving it for the sake of giving you. The ideal signals should be within 20-25 pips away from the current price by the time they give you. Furthermore, study how they make their signals that they are sending to you, perhaps you can develop your own so you can trade with confidence and not relying on somebody else hit or miss method.
Regards

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Quoting trader101

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Trade #5
Buy GBP/USD@ 95.64
SL 25 +spread
TP --TBA

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