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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #5,901
  • Sep 3, 2008 11:44pm Sep 3, 2008 11:44pm
Hi fti, leighwww:

Miscommunications again.

Joys ,humors, good time in your YM should belong to you only. And in a public forum, most people don't like their personal identity and their true aspects of life to be known to the other people. And fti told you some "know-how" to you, that is your previlege, and they are gifts, special treatment and appreciations from fti to you.

Therefore, to be fair,

Leighswww, I think better not post private conversations in a public forum. But you are highly appreciated if you can edit and summarize them, put in your own language and share with us.
  • #5,902
  • Sep 3, 2008 11:50pm Sep 3, 2008 11:50pm
Quoting joypips
hello everyone

It seems my questions have caused this mis-understanding...I am so sorry

Dutch Angel ... another poem to calm the troubled waters please

joy
It is OK. I also use MAs. I put 20 EMA and 50 EMA into my chart for reference. But I put the EMAs' color into grey, so, distractions to PAs are reduced greatly.

EMA is smother, parameter 20, and 50 is similiar to 12 and 48. Since there is no precision in any indicatrors or TA, the difference is ignorable and insignificant.
  • #5,903
  • Sep 4, 2008 12:55am Sep 4, 2008 12:55am
Quoting David
Joys ,humors, good time in your YM should belong to you only. And in a public forum, most people don't like their personal identity and their true aspects of life to be known to the other people. And fti told you some "know-how" to you, that is your previlege, and they are gifts, special treatment and appreciations from fti to you.
David ... I would NEVER divulge any personal information or anything like that. I have said several times in my posts that I have stripped out/edited ALL the chit-chat (meaning personal stuff and anything not having to do with trading). I have only posted things pertaining to the dancing, mindset, etc. and only what he has already shared/disclosed himself previously in this thread.

I had spent hours and hours stripping out all the other stuff, so please give me some credit for knowing better, my friend. Please read good my posts so you will see that I have mentioned this.

Unfortunately, it is impossible to summarize the dance displayed in the sessions. Would you be able to after seeing what went on? You have to see the sequence of events, and how the dancing unfolds to gain a better understanding of what he is doing, how he danced. How many times have we tried to summarize things, and still nobody gets it. That's why fti finally started showing people his actual trading live, here. The only thing missing, was his explanations on how and why he was entering and exiting where he was, etc.

With the chat sessions, he explained more things in detail as we danced the market, so it brought clearer understanding to all. It makes a huge difference.

I thought I was helping by posting those ride-alongs, but evidently, I was wrong.

I had posted a few chat sessions a few months back when he disappeared for a long time, remember? It is in the archives, I am too mentally exhausted at this point to look it up and link it for you, sorry. I posted that same snippet regarding his giving me approval to share it, before doing so. When he returned, fti did not say anything to me back then about not posting the sessions. If he didn't approve, he would have told me back then, I would think.

Those chat session logs helped a lot of people back then, too. Again, I stripped out unnecessary verbiage. With these later logs I had to leave in my own convos, cuz I had asked a lot of questions and it wouldn't make sense if I stripped those out.

Even though he gave me approval to share my chat session logs, I at least had the common sense to strip/edit out what was not applicable to the lesson. That's why you will see many time lapses in between our chats.

Throughout this thread I have always showed utmost concern and care for fti and I have expressed them to him in my emails and chats with him. If he, nor everyone here can see that I have always been more concerned for his health and welfare than for his sharing of information, then I give up. My only concern has always been his welfare first-and-foremost, and the welfare of those in this thread, as well.

Money means nothing to me. That is just materialistic thing. People and relationships mean a lot to me.

I'm sorry if nobody can see that.

Take care.
  • #5,904
  • Sep 4, 2008 1:02am Sep 4, 2008 1:02am
Quoting joypips
It seems my questions have caused this mis-understanding...I am so sorry
Joy, oh my, you are not responsible for any of this. It is my responsibility. Please do not blame yourself
  • #5,905
  • Sep 4, 2008 1:07am Sep 4, 2008 1:07am
And again "good morning" to you, FRIENDS!

Puuuh - that was a strange day yesterday, trading the USDJPY.

The saying "Fortune favors fools" was proofen to me.

Gave a wrong order to my broker:
Instead of S x USDJPY x 0.3 lots x 108.69, I typed 30.0 lots.
Got filled immediately.
Price moved in my direction before I could do anything.
From there on I decided to use this unwanted gift, watched that baby very closely. Well - I have the heart to whisper to you a forbidden concept: I used a trailing stop. made sure that the postion could not do any damage to my book. And got 21 lucky pips.

Yeah - I can tell you. It is a very shocking moment, when you recognize the wrong sizing and you missed the chance for pressing the cancel button.

Hope you will all have some fortune, too when triggering a catastrophic trade ....
  • #5,906
  • Sep 4, 2008 2:01am Sep 4, 2008 2:01am
Quoting mijamoto
As I am here the youngest and maybe the craziest I started reading ECB working paper, which is about microstructure of FOREX and also about influence of central bank intervention. Somebody who is good mathematician will learn a lot, but I am a little bit too young and can't understand equations. So any explanations would be desired. In the text i also noticed many things which is FTI talking about. Unwinding customers' postions , Inter-delars tradings, order flow, noise after public infos, CB interventions through brokers or direct on banks and so on. Valuble text but on the very high level. Otherwise happy trading regards
Hi mijamato,

thanx for that document. Sounds interesting. Hope I'll find the time to give it a chance ....

By the way:
If I remember right, you have statet earlier in this thread, that you have some probs in "getting in contact" with maths and equations, coz you are young ....
Be careful, that repeatedly stating, that you have probs in mathematics won't get a "self fulfilling prophecy.
I can tell you from my experience (from school over several activities in science and Business to my trading business) there is nothing special on maths, but it's allways your advantage, when you have a grasp to the basic concepts. Just be open minded and give it a try. It could be even somehow fascinating ...
  • #5,907
  • Sep 4, 2008 2:06am Sep 4, 2008 2:06am
@MaMood
You were lucky! I did a similar thing once and before I could kill the deal I lost some of my account cos I initially didn't notice my error.

@fti
You were right about beige book
Fed Beige Book Sees 'Slow' Economy
The U.S. Federal Reserve said economic conditions remain "slow" as consumers pull back and focus on essentials, though exports continue to provide some boost to the economy. Meanwhile, businesses reported that they've raised retail prices in response to the recent sharp increase in material and other input costs. However, many Fed district banks noted the latest decline in energy and commodity prices, which along with retrained wages should keep inflation from further accelerating.
"Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that the pace of economic activity has been slow in most Districts," the Fed said in its anecdotal summary of economic activity, known as the Beige Book.

@joy
No poems today, but a quote:
If a man should conquer in battle a thousand and a thousand more, and another should conquer himself, his would be the greater victory because the greatest of victories is the victory over oneself.

Warning some scorpions serve a purpose:
Kill all my demons and my angels may die too

regards
DutchAngel
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #5,908
  • Sep 4, 2008 2:16am Sep 4, 2008 2:16am
Quoting DutchAngel
@joy
No poems today, but a quote:
If a man should conquer in battle a thousand and a thousand more, and another should conquer himself, his would be the greater victory because the greatest of victories is the victory over oneself.

Warning some scorpions serve a purpose:
Kill all my demons and my angels may die too

regards
DutchAngel
Hi Dutchangel,
in this rainy morning here in bavaria, your wisdom and prudence gives me some warming glow. I'm deeply impressed by you
  • #5,909
  • Sep 4, 2008 2:27am Sep 4, 2008 2:27am
Hi, FTI and all:

If E/U breaks up 1.4550 effectively, shall we see a head and shoulders formation in 1H chart?
  • #5,910
  • Sep 4, 2008 2:32am Sep 4, 2008 2:32am
Quoting Green_David
Hi, FTI and all:

If E/U breaks up 1.4550 effectively, shall we see a head and shoulders formation in 1H chart?
Hi David

I see inverted h/s on hrly forming right now, but who knows where it is going. Will be watching tho.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #5,911
  • Sep 4, 2008 2:38am Sep 4, 2008 2:38am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Dutchangel,
in this rainy morning here in bavaria, your wisdom and prudence gives me some warming glow. I'm deeply impressed by you
Hi MaMood

A bit touchy about the wisdom word right now (the old are wise) as I turned 40 last week and had to put up with my wicked brothers making jokes about buying me walking sticks or gift vouchers for a stairlift etc for my birthday. lol

I quickly shut them up by informing them that I, like all dutchwomen, carry a whip in my bag and would use it on them if they persisted. (My brothers are English so they don't know that this is not true.)
Obviously all this whipping in the thread has entered my subconscious mind.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #5,912
  • Sep 4, 2008 2:45am Sep 4, 2008 2:45am
Is this thread still of the mind that fundamentals move markets? Or did you talk yourself out of that, even fundamentals cannot be relied upon?
  • #5,913
  • Sep 4, 2008 2:48am Sep 4, 2008 2:48am
Hi ALL,

Noticed that they are selling the yen for everything else in the markets.
Somethingy seem brewing in the Jap economy. Wonder what?

regards

you can see it happening in all yen crosses now.
Seems the kdm relationships will be changing. esp against yen.
  • #5,914
  • Sep 4, 2008 2:53am Sep 4, 2008 2:53am
Quoting FXoffshore
Is this thread still of the mind that fundamentals move markets? Or did you talk yourself out of that, even fundamentals cannot be relied upon?
The fallacy is that any muppet can open a chart throw some indicators on it and make themselves millionaires. Google "forex" and you will see all the false promises of easy money touted by so called guru's trying to make a buck off the naive. To quote fti:

Any person with a good brain on their shoulders, will ultimate come to the realisation that these are just tools. Tools that are built on historical and lagging databases. Moreover the rigidity of the parameters used in the studies imposes rigid responses to changing market conditions. Have we forgotten that the market is a live beast that learns and adapts to trader behaviours? Many have forgotten that the market is the sum total of the behaviour of the participants engaged in the market place. These tools are used for measuring the markets health, not so unlike the thermometer to a doctor, or the measuring tape to a carpenter, just a tool.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #5,915
  • Sep 4, 2008 3:02am Sep 4, 2008 3:02am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,

Noticed that they are selling the yen for everything else in the markets.
Somethingy seem brewing in the Jap economy. Wonder what?

regards

you can see it happening in all yen crosses now.
Seems the kdm relationships will be changing. esp against yen.
Hi fti,

noticed that too - especially as a USDJPY trader ...

May be it is relating to the resignation of the JAP PM Fukuda?
There is some uncertainty for the economic/fiscal course ahead ...
  • #5,916
  • Sep 4, 2008 3:05am Sep 4, 2008 3:05am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,

Noticed that they are selling the yen for everything else in the markets.
Somethingy seem brewing in the Jap economy. Wonder what?

regards

you can see it happening in all yen crosses now.
Seems the kdm relationships will be changing. esp against yen.
Hi fti

This could be the cause

TOKYO, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average fell 1 percent to a five-month closing low on Thursday, dragged down by Tokyo Electron Ltd (8035.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and other tech shares as worries grew about tech spending in the face of increasing economic gloom.
full link here http://www.reuters.com/article/tokyo...14351120080904
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #5,917
  • Sep 4, 2008 3:06am Sep 4, 2008 3:06am
Quoting fti
~~
Seems the kdm relationships will be changing. esp against yen.
That's some tear.
Am I right in thinking if it was a sweep it would come down just as quick as it went up?
Good Trading
  • #5,918
  • Edited 3:27am Sep 4, 2008 3:06am | Edited 3:27am
Quoting leighsww
As far as you feeling that I compromised my integrity. I wish you reconsider, cuz I have not done so here or anywhere else. I assure you, I take my integrity seriously. I have many, many friends, family, business associates, customers, etc. who can attest to that.
leighsww and fti. please work it out in private. leighsww posted chat session which were good contribution but this aftermath is no benefit to this thread. If anything is over the line or a violation of ones privacy/ideas then please say so. fti, if you speak your mind to leighsww I am sure she will listen.

she stepped in when this thread had low moral to bring it up (again!) for the benefit of all friends here. that was much appreciated.

yesterday I made about 130 "natural" pips (meaning not multiplied by lots and various troops) on the short side on eur/usd and if you look at the daily candle it is in the opposite direction, so I consider it as a good day. this is partly because of this thread and partly from the information I gather from charts & the feel..
  • #5,919
  • Sep 4, 2008 3:09am Sep 4, 2008 3:09am
Quoting DutchAngel
Hi David

I see inverted h/s on hrly forming right now, but who knows where it is going. Will be watching tho.
This is just a warning. If it goes that way, I may keep my positions built yesterday, one of them is as low as 1.4397.

Do you know the highest price of E/U short position I set up last month? It was about 1.6018. But it is such a shame that I didn't make money! Because I didn't always keep bearish on E/U during this 1.6-1.44 fall, been a stupid pig all the time.

keep steady fast is very difficult. I wonder if FTI has any comment on this.
  • #5,920
  • Sep 4, 2008 3:12am Sep 4, 2008 3:12am
I'm relating to that report ...

Quote

70 pct of Japanese executives see negative impact from Fukuda's exit - report
Mittwoch, 3. September 2008 00:12:00





TOKYO (Thomson Financial) - Nearly 70 percent of top executives at major companies expect Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda's abrupt resignation to have a negative influence on the future course of the economy and government policies, a survey conducted by the Nikkei business daily showed on Wednesday.

The poll also found that about 30 percent of respondents called for a snap election at an early date after a new cabinet is formed.

On Fukuda's exit, 16 percent said they expect negative consequences, while 53 percent predicted a rather negative impact and only 9 percent said it will have a positive effect, according to the survey.

With an economic slowdown and higher prices for raw materials and energy weighing on earnings, almost half the business leaders in the survey pointed out that a political vacuum would stall policy implementation.

The survey also showed that on the timing of the dissolution of the lower house and a subsequent general election, 28 percent said it should be year-end or early next year while 19 percent said it should come after the budget has passed the Diet.

($1=108.75 yen)

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