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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #5,861
  • Sep 3, 2008 2:37am Sep 3, 2008 2:37am
This is one of the most useful, calm and friendly threads of all time. even Seeit has good surprises in him, hehe.

Nice work guys.

Leighsww, thank you for your continues contributions.
  • #5,862
  • Sep 3, 2008 2:58am Sep 3, 2008 2:58am
Quoting leighsww
Joy ... Here's three excellent posts of fti's regarding that --> hourly benchmark

Click on and read the bottom-most post first, then work your way up, as that's the sequence of his posts.
Good job on the reminder.
  • #5,863
  • Sep 3, 2008 3:07am Sep 3, 2008 3:07am
Hi again,

as I'm always diving for some "historical pearls" in this thread, here is some more.
Quote
As i do believe non of us have the crystal ball nor the time travel machine, it is impossible to predict the outcome of any positions. Best we can do is to manage it. To rescue if when in trouble, to attack when victory is easy and to throe in the towel if necessary, if position becomes "dead".

So if you understand the mindset, your position must not give you confidence when right, nor despair when wrong, you have to manage it as per what is happening in the market now, and now keeps changing as time forwards, and yor strategies have to be adjusted to the changing market , only mindset holds firm. Therefore as per your example, if you see the 3 crows, you may want to initiate some position, however its what the market does after you're position that determines your forward strategies, not the crows any more, they are history. New developments will tell you what you must do to be profitable.

Probabilities won't make you money , only tells you odds. Its your strategic reaction to market conditions that can make you money and your ability to keep in rhythm.
On the flip, odds mostly will serve to harden your ability to feel and may make you candidates for pain threshold tests. Try to stay nimble, but focused on the dance. Remember, rigidity kills.
You can chose to make the price patterns predictive indications, or you can use them as hints for strategic reaction, it depends on your mindset.

regards

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2852
  • #5,864
  • Sep 3, 2008 5:00am Sep 3, 2008 5:00am
Quoting MaMood
Hi again,

as I'm always diving for some "historical pearls" in this thread, here is some more.


http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2852
MaMood...thankyou, I hereby class you as one of the pearls of this thread

Leigh...thankyou also our special treasure.. a couple of questions

1)which sma which chart...
2)back in my notes I have 15m 4 and 16 and 5m 12
3)fti also says 48 for the 4h but we don't use 4hr charts??
4)fti also says 1hr 12sma...so do we use the 12 for 1hr and 15m
5)why sma and not ema?

joy
  • #5,865
  • Sep 3, 2008 5:14am Sep 3, 2008 5:14am
Quoting joypips
MaMood...thankyou, I hereby class you as one of the pearls of this thread

Leigh...thankyou also our special treasure.. a couple of questions

1)which sma which chart...
2)back in my notes I have 15m 4 and 16 and 5m 12
3)fti also says 48 for the 4h but we don't use 4hr charts??
4)fti also says 1hr 12sma...so do we use the 12 for 1hr and 15m
5)why sma and not ema?

joy
Quoting fti
[20:57] fti: sma are really only average prices
[20:58] fti: the 12 sma incdicates to me where the hourly average traded price should be
[20:58] fti: and the 48 tells me the 4hrly average prices.
[20:58] fti: they are just price indications
[20:59] fti: the significant indication is which is on top
[20:59] fti: whether its a bear or bull
on 5min chart, 12 sma is like a 1h average price (5min * 12 = 60min)
on 5min chart, 48 sma is like a 4h average price (5min * 48 = 240min)

ema is calculated differently and would not represent the 1h and 4h prices.

good luck,
  • #5,866
  • Sep 3, 2008 5:45am Sep 3, 2008 5:45am
Quoting piccolo
on 5min chart, 12 sma is like a 1h average price (5min * 12 = 60min)
on 5min chart, 48 sma is like a 4h average price (5min * 48 = 240min)
piccolo.. thanks so much
so we have 12 and 48 on 5M ... this will be hard messing up my
nice naked charts
  • #5,867
  • Edited 10:53am Sep 3, 2008 6:33am | Edited 10:53am
Quoting joypips
piccolo.. thanks so much
so we have 12 and 48 on 5M ... this will be hard messing up my
nice naked charts
Hi Joy,

You are correct, you put those there, and that will be the end of your ability to dance.

It supposed to be on another 5 min chart to be used in the back ground. Only use it if you lost your ability to "feel" and have to re reference for your realignment. Mostly you would only need that if you do not have the ability to 'feel". This is for novice trader guidance only. It is the least rigid of the indicators and are not of rigid minset although parameter dependent, it flows. BUT it is still a lagger.

regards
  • #5,868
  • Sep 3, 2008 7:00am Sep 3, 2008 7:00am
Quoting fti
Hi Joy,

You are correct, you put those there, and that will be the end of your ability to dance.
........

regards
Hello!

Yes, I agree, to put the sma's in the 5 min chart only confuses me.

Regards,

Textor
  • #5,869
  • Sep 3, 2008 7:06am Sep 3, 2008 7:06am
Quoting joypips
piccolo.. thanks so much
so we have 12 and 48 on 5M ... this will be hard messing up my
nice naked charts
it will, i don't recommend to have more than one MA on your "main" chart as you will be tempted to take the crosses as some sort of indication.. which will cloud the judgement.

re-read the part from FTI that MaMood highlighted earlier today. then re-read it again till it sinks in.

fibs, MAs, S/Rs can appear as some sort of barrier/safe way to trade.. which they are not, especially MAs.
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  • #5,870
  • Sep 3, 2008 10:54am Sep 3, 2008 10:54am
THe market is changed !
  • #5,871
  • Sep 3, 2008 11:01am Sep 3, 2008 11:01am
Quoting fti
THe market is changed !
Indeed. Thanks.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #5,872
  • Sep 3, 2008 11:04am Sep 3, 2008 11:04am
Quoting fti
THe market is changed !
Yes. Wonder if beige book in 2 hours time will impact change normally doesn't tho.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #5,873
  • Sep 3, 2008 11:07am Sep 3, 2008 11:07am
Quoting fti
THe market is changed !
Hi, FTI:

Agreed, all pairs execpt U/J have hammers by now.

Anyway EUR has depretiated against USD by 10% this wave, according to your prof. experiences, are chances of strong rebound high?
  • #5,874
  • Edited 11:49am Sep 3, 2008 11:18am | Edited 11:49am
Quoting DutchAngel
Yes. Wonder if beige book in 2 hours time will impact change normally doesn't tho.
Hi Dutchangel, David,
The change is due to tiring bulls, more than bear's presence.
I don't know about the beige book, It cannot be saying that the economy is in good standing. The best it can indicate is how badly the recession is affecting the businesses. I think the good news are nowhere to be found, but the market doesn't wanna listen, because there's other things driving it.

Normally, things just doesn't change from bull to bear suddenly, The bulls are probably taking a breather due to level 1 target being achieved, refer to day charts. (long long term).

The Bulls are begining to self feeding on themselves, and it can get very violent.
You still have to pulse her, only now the tempo may pick up on the USD dips.

It is getting very tricky. The Mmakers tried to get my Euros during lunch,by force shading in thin markets. But I taught mine his lesson. Hope he didn't die.
14450/60 seems a good vantage point for the longer haul. We may not see it again for some time to come.

regards.

ps : take a good look at the hourly charts for all kgdom, she's telling.
and keep an eye out on the Eyen.
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  • #5,875
  • Sep 3, 2008 11:36am Sep 3, 2008 11:36am
Quoting fti
Hi Dutchangel, David,
The change is due to tiring bulls, more than bear's presence.
I don't know about the beige book, It cannot be saying that the economy is in good standing. The best it can indicate is how badly the recession is affecting the businesses. I think the good news are nowhere to be found, but the market doesn't wanna listen, because there's other things driving it.

Normally, things just doesn't change from bull to bear suddenly, The bulls are probably taking a breather due to level 1 target being achieved, refer to day charts. (long long term).

The Bulls are begining to self feeding on themselves, and it can get very violent.
You still have to pulse her, only now the tempo may pick up on the USD dips.

It is getting very tricky. The Mmakers tried to get my Euros during lunch,by force shading in thin markets. But I taught mine his lesson. Hope he didn't die.
14450/60 seems a good vantage point for the longer haul. We may not see it again for some time to come.

regards.
Thanks.

Better get up early tomorrow 7:am(Beijing time, GMT 23:00), these days, tokyo open have strong movement.
  • #5,876
  • Edited 4:11pm Sep 3, 2008 12:17pm | Edited 4:11pm
" "
  • #5,877
  • Sep 3, 2008 12:29pm Sep 3, 2008 12:29pm
Hi fti

Are you going to explain those three charts yesterday? All having different candles. Is there anything to explain?
  • #5,878
  • Edited 3:56pm Sep 3, 2008 12:54pm | Edited 3:56pm
" "
  • #5,879
  • Sep 3, 2008 12:56pm Sep 3, 2008 12:56pm
Quoting Zoran
Hi fti

Are you going to explain those three charts yesterday? All having different candles. Is there anything to explain?
Hi Zoran,
too busy to talk now. maybe later.


regards
  • #5,880
  • Edited 1:37pm Sep 3, 2008 1:19pm | Edited 1:37pm
fti ... read this after you are all squared on your trades, but I'm going to go ahead and post this now, cuz I have to head on out.

--------------

Quoting fti
You are correct, you put those there, and that will be the end of your ability to dance.

It supposed to be on another 5 min chart to be used in the back ground.
Huh? You never once mentioned to use the smas in a background chart.

So, are all the ride-along chat sessions useless then and not how you actually dance/trade? What the heck did we go through all that for then? lol.

However, if I'm interpreting the chat sessions correctly, it seemed very much a part of the dance (as I had mentioned here --> Post #5803) and as you defined how you used them in your posts here --> Post #1472

You clearly state that they are not to be used as triggers, cuz they are laggers, but how can they not be part of the dance from what you say in the post I linked above and how in the ride-along chat sessions we would wait for the PA to test those zones, or wait if the PA is too far from 12sma, etc. before making our moves?

Okay, I am now totally confused, lol.

Even if now you mention that they are only used for novice traders, how then do you gauge, when more advanced, what you mentioned in your Post #1472?

I don't see the point in using them in another chart in the background from what your post describe their uses as (or how we used them to dance in our ride-along sessions).

I am just questioning now, because so many people were missing vital information and not understanding things, that I thought might be more clear in the chat sessions logs, but I guess I was wrong, lol.

Anyway, I think it's clear that our chat sessions may not be useful here then, if you are now saying these things. There's no point for me to continue to spend time editing out our chit-chat, lol.

fti ... please keep in mind that after close to 400+ pages and over 5880+ posts, and if you are getting frustrated with people who seem still not to "get it" as was clearly seen in your Post #5688, then maybe you need to step back and reassess why that is.

If you want your students to learn well, then you need to lead by example. If you scold them about being a pig or for reading the patterns, etc., then you need to not do the same (at least when you are training them. Do it privately yourself without demonstrating what you yourself call "bad habits" in front of them). It only confuses them more and more, and gets them scolded for only doing what they see their teacher doing.

This thread is full of inconsistencies (as Zoran had once mentioned) and now it seems, so were our chat sessions.

Even through all the inconsistencies though, lol, this is a GREAT thread, you have shared much wonderful info, and I, as well as everyone here, appreciates and thanks you for all that you have been (and we have told you that many, many times, so hopefully, by now, you know that )

I am sorry for my part in our misunderstanding, and now we both need to just move on. Take care and I wish you and your family all the best.

Please keep an open-mind about what I told you in my email about Zoran's "gift" and your family, okay? Also, don't lead people down a path like yours (health wise) if you know it will be that of self-destruction. There's a portion of our chat convos where you shared honestly things, that I worry some will aspire to become replications of you, and that scares me. So, please choose wisely how you lead them, okay?

And for everybody else, choose wisely how you are led. If you were in the military and your commanding officer told you to shoot a 5 year old child, you better question the reason. Please always think for yourself (I can see that many of you already do, so that's good). Sorry, but a Mom thingy again

And keep questioning the teacher if you need to be clear on something.

A good guide for me in life/trading/etc. has been --> Suffering is Optional (lol)

Quoting fti
what was in the " Allo Allo" clip, that upsets you.
It didn't upset me (read my post again, I had some "lol" in there ).

Okay, maybe it's just me, haha, but I would never have seen any relation to "how thin the market was on Labor Day" with that video clip, lol, thus I interpreted "she will not repeat anything" as "disclosing information" lol. You sure you watched the same video you posted? lol -->
Inserted Video
(it was funny cuz of what he meant by "repeat" even though I took the interpretation for your posting it with regards to "disclosing" haha)
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