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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #109,721
  • Sep 2, 2008 5:04am Sep 2, 2008 5:04am
Quoting PandoraBox
There is one method, where we can make GJ down, beside using technical and fundemental analyse:

The method is : All of us agree GJ will go beyond then 189 and nobody long this pair. Then we can make selling pressure.
too much buying pressure on the crosses, i bought 7 yards of aud/jpy at 90 and 14 yards of nzd/jpy at 74
  • #109,722
  • Sep 2, 2008 5:05am Sep 2, 2008 5:05am
It's so much more stress free trading on the longer term time frames. I am also convinced that in the current market conditions(for the gbp/usd) oscillators are worthless, no maybe that's a bit strong, lets say ineffective.

What I mean is that ALL oscillators are stuck on oversold (and probably varying degrees of divergence), implying a pending retrace which given the fundamentals don't appear to be coming. I also find the QQE on the smaller time frames to be lagging in this type of market.

So I've been using price action, fibs and pivots. If all goes according to plan, the next medium term target will be MS3 then the 50% of the entire uptrend since 2001. gbp/usd broke major support at 1.8100 and so the direction was almost absolutely assured .
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  • #109,723
  • Sep 2, 2008 5:09am Sep 2, 2008 5:09am
from a brocker:

Quote
FX: The GBPUSD move came quickly after the OECD announced their negative growth outlook, with UK’s annualized QoQ growth expected to drop by 0.3% in Q3, and the obvious difficulties which the inflation picture poses for the BoE’s rate outlook. A little more focus now also on EURGBP as it may re-test the 0.8150-60 level, and retains a bid tone.
''Art is making something out of nothing and selling it'' Frank Zappa
  • #109,724
  • Sep 2, 2008 5:10am Sep 2, 2008 5:10am
Quoting Clouds
too much buying pressure on the crosses, i bought 7 yards of aud/jpy at 90 and 14 yards of nzd/jpy at 74

That is the problem. When selling power equal with buying power, we are not going any where.

Somebody need to convince all retail traders GJ need to go below 192.42.
  • #109,725
  • Sep 2, 2008 5:13am Sep 2, 2008 5:13am
Quoting Clouds
aud/jpy may need to hit 90 before the yen crosses move up, random thought
done..
  • #109,726
  • Sep 2, 2008 5:17am Sep 2, 2008 5:17am
Quoting 4x_Trader
now is the right time to buy! placed 1.5 yards long @ 195.30 no sl tp open!


Just an info not a reco!
i thought you on long side..
  • #109,727
  • Sep 2, 2008 5:34am Sep 2, 2008 5:34am
Where do you all get your resources from? lots and stops, how much movement is hedged etc from the general market and favourite websites, I`m still (after 3 years trading) coming across more questions! thx to those who give their time
scale in, scale out
  • #109,728
  • Sep 2, 2008 5:41am Sep 2, 2008 5:41am
Quoting GodfreyH
It's so much more stress free trading on the longer term time frames. I am also convinced that in the current market conditions(for the gbp/usd) oscillators are worthless, no maybe that's a bit strong, lets say ineffective.

What I mean is that ALL oscillators are stuck on oversold (and probably varying degrees of divergence), implying a pending retrace which given the fundamentals don't appear to be coming. I also find the QQE on the smaller time frames to be lagging in this type of market.

So I've been using price action, fibs and pivots. If all goes according to plan, the next medium term target will be MS3 then the 50% of the entire uptrend since 2001. gbp/usd broke major support at 1.8100 and so the direction was almost absolutely assured .

sure Godfrey what you said is accurate,the cable broke the major support at 1.8100 and the way is full of aggressive sellers.

i think the trend indicators like ADX and moving averages are approperiate tools in a trending Market like this.


trade well.
I always knew that someday I would make it big
  • #109,729
  • Sep 2, 2008 6:00am Sep 2, 2008 6:00am
Post it and let us see it, my ow seems to be different from yours
Quoting karmostaji
187.50 is the Monthly 61.8% fibo
  • #109,730
  • Sep 2, 2008 6:14am Sep 2, 2008 6:14am
Quoting uncletrumpet
Post it and let us see it, my ow seems to be different from yours
.
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Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #109,731
  • Sep 2, 2008 6:27am Sep 2, 2008 6:27am
this is what i see on this pair.
monthly chart shows that we are in a downtrend and price is stuck somewhere between 50 and 61.8 fibo. judging by this chart, i would go for a target at the red trend line, which for now stands @ 176 area. a break of green descending trend line would invalidate this scenario.
weekly chart shows that we are during 5th wave of the fall. typically, it should go well beyond 192.60, and i am thinking at least 61.8 fibo monthly which is at 187.49. but let's take a look at daily to see what's going on.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #109,732
  • Edited 6:44am Sep 2, 2008 6:27am | Edited 6:44am
daily shows just a big drop, no significant retrace. if we consider that this is ONLY THE BEGINNING of the 5th weekly wave, then we need to see at least one retracement on daily, and then another big drop. price going above 210.60 invalidates this scenario.
so now let's turn to short term, because h4 chart should show us where this first 2200+ pips drop would end. well, to tell you the truth, there is more to come. my scenario is that we need to see a small retrace, probably to 200/201 area (maybe a little bit higher, to 5sma weekly) and then down again to complete the daily wave. and only then we would be able to talk about a consistent retracement (to monthly 5sma, for example).
who wants to ride the small wave up... just watch h1 timeframe for a candle that close above 5sma h4 (get a multi-timeframe indicator...).
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #109,733
  • Sep 2, 2008 6:31am Sep 2, 2008 6:31am
but when market makers are at work on gbp, like they seem to be now... i think indicators are pretty much useless. i have no intention of going long, just patiently wait until all retracements are done and then will add more shorts.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #109,734
  • Sep 2, 2008 6:36am Sep 2, 2008 6:36am
what a sell-off !

they're all dumping the poor pound sterling against the US dollar and i'm doing the same. .

i 'm going to reintiate my short position targeting 1.7440

bye bye pound sterling ,my arms wide open for you US dollars welcome

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
I always knew that someday I would make it big
  • #109,735
  • Sep 2, 2008 6:44am Sep 2, 2008 6:44am
nice analysis Scrat

damn, how beast this pair if we go to 61.8 of monthly fibo before filling the gap..
  • #109,736
  • Sep 2, 2008 6:52am Sep 2, 2008 6:52am
it will do stop huntng just around 194.80 and then go down to 192
  • #109,737
  • Sep 2, 2008 6:56am Sep 2, 2008 6:56am
NY will do exactly opposite of London....
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #109,738
  • Sep 2, 2008 7:03am Sep 2, 2008 7:03am
Quoting Scrat
daily shows just a big drop, no significant retrace. if we consider that this is ONLY THE BEGINNING of the 5th weekly wave, then we need to see at least one retracement on daily, and then another big drop. price going above 210.60 invalidates this scenario.
so now let's turn to short term, because h4 chart should show us where this first 2200+ pips drop would end. well, to tell you the truth, there is more to come. my scenario is that we need to see a small retrace, probably to 200/201 area (maybe a little bit higher, to 5sma weekly) and then down again to complete the daily wave. and only then we would be able to talk about a consistent retracement (to monthly 5sma, for example).
who wants to ride the small wave up... just watch h1 timeframe for a candle that close above 5sma h4 (get a multi-timeframe indicator...).
Is this break of your green monthly trend line?
Regards
  • #109,739
  • Sep 2, 2008 7:07am Sep 2, 2008 7:07am
Maybe I should change my TP's to 187.50 hmm?

Quoting karmostaji
187.50 is the Monthly 61.8% fibo
  • #109,740
  • Sep 2, 2008 7:11am Sep 2, 2008 7:11am
When many folks added to their longs at 199.00, we were tempted but didnt go for it.

And now I am tempted to get longs down low here where it is a good "value"
laugh!.

But I think even though she is clearly oversold, she is coming down some more.

My TP's on the shorts are still set at 189.00, but 187.50 wouldnt be too bad either as a final target.

Quoting PandoraBox
There is one method, where we can make GJ down, beside using technical and fundemental analyse:

The method is : All of us agree GJ will go beyond then 189 and nobody long this pair. Then we can make selling pressure.
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