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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #321
  • Aug 31, 2008 2:55pm Aug 31, 2008 2:55pm
Quoting marketwavez
Gbp/Usd
Hmmmm , What do we have here ?.........

Talk about going to Hell in a Hand-Basket ..........

- When will this slippage end ? ............
Have no idea either
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  • #322
  • Aug 31, 2008 2:57pm Aug 31, 2008 2:57pm
G/U Price now: 8145

G/J: = = : 196.75
  • #323
  • Aug 31, 2008 3:23pm Aug 31, 2008 3:23pm
Okay, .786 is TOAST.

It is a holiday in the states and for as far back as I can remember,
this is one of the days in the year reserved for beating the hell out of the us dollar.
Any holiday actually that the US fed is closed is an opportunity to bash the buck.
If that holds true vis a vis the dollar yen then G/J is at the mercy of the JPY.
Since the Pound has been doing the driving as of late, and it looks sick as a dog,
it's shaping up to be another St. Patricks Day massacre !

Who woulda guessed the beast would find comfort at 19666, anybody hmmmm?

Watch market's reaction at 19508, if it prints. Could be good for 100 pip bounce.

After that, looking out a few days, we could be in for some major volatility.




Quoting toshi
I'm have a bit a trouble nailing down the .786 on GBP/JPY.

Because of the capitulation low set on 03/17/2008 was a rather forceful bottom,
with a nearly 600 pip range that day and lowest price traded coming in
anywhere from 192.25 to 192.50, Could anyone out there sound off about
where they've pegged the St. Patricks Day low on Pound Yen ?

Of course, if we trade under 197 this week, it's a moot point.

Also, 2 other 100% retracement possibilities exist: the lows from 03/20 (19685) and 03/30 (19508).
Anyone targeting these as potential objectives ?

I am reminded that fib retracements are just spots on the map and only have
as much validity as are placed in them by the market as a collective whole.
No where is it written in stone that a market must stop on a dime at .xyz% retracement.

So, that being said, if one were short this pair, does it appear the .786 has ALREADY printed, or not quite yet?
If it has, i'm inclined to cover another piece and move my stop down just above the .707
  • #324
  • Aug 31, 2008 3:28pm Aug 31, 2008 3:28pm
Usd/Cad

A Ray of Hope ! ...........

---------------------------------------------
Only a Probability, ............ Not Cast in Stone !
----------------------------------------------
http://i35.tinypic.com/155j6lu.gif

http://i34.tinypic.com/2a4pi50.jpg
  • #325
  • Aug 31, 2008 3:44pm Aug 31, 2008 3:44pm
Eur/Usd
------------------------
Long-Term View........

---------------------------
http://i35.tinypic.com/10dxs1h.gif
  • #326
  • Aug 31, 2008 3:45pm Aug 31, 2008 3:45pm
Quoting nedal26
G/U Price now: 8145

G/J: = = : 196.75

Hi Nedal,

I was wondering how did u get the numbers?
  • #327
  • Aug 31, 2008 5:15pm Aug 31, 2008 5:15pm
Quoting Blue bottle
Hi Nedal,

I was wondering how did u get the numbers?

Maybe he got it from Oanda, FXstreet or special broker.
  • #328
  • Sep 1, 2008 1:37am Sep 1, 2008 1:37am
EUR/USD is in a contracting triangle this appears self evident now. Wave D is near a bottom around 1.4615 range in the .786 fibo area, and could head up higher to form w.E to complete larger w.(IV) around 1.4690 -ish. There is a good trend line from the previous w.iv of (III) top at 1.5081 through 1.4904 w.c of this triangle. I doubt w.E will break above that trend line, or the one 20 pips higher from the all time high on July 15 as solid resistance, and may turn down for big w.(V) lower anywhere past 1.4650-ish. (triangle e wave is often short when the other 4 waves touch the trend lines).

The first move in w.i of w.1 of w.(V) should be a vertical drop. If you miss it, wait for the w.ii retracement, just make sure you count 5 down and 3 corrective wave back to .618 fibo or close as a safe entry. Stop would be above w.E high in the 1.4700-50 range, so a great risk/reward ratio opportunity. Timing, well, it may take until Tueday London open to make the start of w.(V), and even Wed for the w.ii retracement entry.

News that NATO will sanction Russia, or that Russia may retaliate with turning off gas pipeline to EU could be a huge news event. This is getting to be big, like the 1963 cuban missle crisis, and as important for Russia.
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  • #329
  • Edited 3:04am Sep 1, 2008 2:39am | Edited 3:04am
Quoting FXoffshore
EUR/USD is in a contracting triangle this appears self evident now. Wave D is near a bottom around 1.4615 range in the .786 fibo area, and could head up higher to form w.E to complete larger w.(IV) around 1.4690 -ish. There is a good trend line from the previous w.iv of (III) top at 1.5081 through 1.4904 w.c of this triangle. I doubt w.E will break above that trend line, or the one 20 pips higher from the all time high on July 15 as solid resistance, and may turn down for big w.(V) lower anywhere past 1.4650-ish. (triangle e wave is often short when the other 4 waves touch the trend lines).

The first move in w.i of w.1 of w.(V) should be a vertical drop. If you miss it, wait for the w.ii retracement, just make sure you count 5 down and 3 corrective wave back to .618 fibo or close as a safe entry. Stop would be above w.E high in the 1.4700-50 range, so a great risk/reward ratio opportunity. Timing, well, it may take until Tueday London open to make the start of w.(V), and even Wed for the w.ii retracement entry.

News that NATO will sanction Russia, or that Russia may retaliate with turning off gas pipeline to EU could be a huge news event. This is getting to be big, like the 1963 cuban missle crisis, and as important for Russia.

Great analysis FXoffshore, nice chart too.

i too believe that we are heading towards wave E..

Just entered long at 1.4644 for 80 pips profit.
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  • #330
  • Edited 3:34am Sep 1, 2008 3:21am | Edited 3:34am
Wish I were correct. STill in learning phase. Plz do correct me.
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  • #331
  • Sep 1, 2008 6:58am Sep 1, 2008 6:58am
Hey traders!
One qiuck post from me. I received a lot of emails about my wave count on the EUR/USD daily, so I decided to post the chart in this tread.
Some good elliotticans in this tread. Nice work guys.

Here is my chart. Grega

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  • #332
  • Sep 1, 2008 12:36pm Sep 1, 2008 12:36pm
Nice chart, Grega. Perfectly clear for all 2008 in a nutshell.

We have a nice short trade coming up when w.E is in place. Could take the intra-day long from w.D up to w.E for 150 pips, but it is counter-trend and at the turning point, so risk needs to be cut in half and monitored carefully. Otherwise wait a couple days for the turn around 1.4750-95.
  • #333
  • Sep 1, 2008 5:08pm Sep 1, 2008 5:08pm
Quoting lancelot41
Hey traders!
One qiuck post from me. I received a lot of emails about my wave count on the EUR/USD daily, so I decided to post the chart in this tread.
Some good elliotticans in this tread. Nice work guys.

Here is my chart. Grega
Great work Grega..

am glad that you have chosen this thread to post ur charts..
  • #334
  • Sep 1, 2008 5:27pm Sep 1, 2008 5:27pm
Quoting lancelot41
Hey traders!
One qiuck post from me. I received a lot of emails about my wave count on the EUR/USD daily, so I decided to post the chart in this tread.
Some good elliotticans in this tread. Nice work guys.

Here is my chart. Grega

Attachment
I concur - A super chart and very clear.
  • #335
  • Sep 1, 2008 8:02pm Sep 1, 2008 8:02pm
Now EURO has fallen below 1.4571 that represented the w.c triangle leg low, the prospect of a contracting triangle is broken/eliminated. It now becomes a terminal diagonal triangle - currently in w.iii of (V) of C.

This change in form, means wave (IV) was complete in the 3 wave upward movement that ended at 1.4907 a week ago. In other words, the final minor waves iv and v will complete the correction from the 1.6037 high. Target is likely the support from the rising trend line back to last June 2007, around 1.4500 and a declining trend line from the w.(III) low on Aug 15 at 1.4644.

That changes things greatly, from looking for a short opportunity for the duration of wave 5 down, to waiting for the end of (V) of C for the move up to test 1.6037 over Sept - Oct.

As a terminal triangle, we are assured that there can be no further corrective waves down can be added when this is done. Expect a large wave 5 starting with impulse waves, likely this time next week.
  • #336
  • Sep 2, 2008 1:01am Sep 2, 2008 1:01am
gold
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  • #337
  • Sep 2, 2008 8:24am Sep 2, 2008 8:24am
Gbp/Usd

Short-Term Update :

--------------------------
http://i34.tinypic.com/65u8gy.gif
  • #338
  • Sep 2, 2008 11:10am Sep 2, 2008 11:10am
gold update zoom in
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  • #339
  • Sep 2, 2008 11:46am Sep 2, 2008 11:46am
Quoting 5ysfx
gold update zoom in
ok..........
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  • #340
  • Sep 2, 2008 2:25pm Sep 2, 2008 2:25pm
My view for Gbp/Jpy pair.
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