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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #109,041
  • Aug 28, 2008 3:14am Aug 28, 2008 3:14am
Quoting karmostaji
monthly/weekly trend is definitely bearish but I don't open/close trades based on those TF's only, so enjoy waiting for the next top if we start bouncing

yea i'll wait
  • #109,042
  • Aug 28, 2008 3:14am Aug 28, 2008 3:14am
Quoting lilmoe
199.78 reached, congrats to me

that's where i took partial profit.

still holding shorts from wayyyyyy above
did you TP ??
  • #109,043
  • Aug 28, 2008 3:15am Aug 28, 2008 3:15am
Quoting Piters
did you TP ??

some

this is wave 5 after all, and trust me, trying to pick its bottom is the biggest mistake a trader would ever do
  • #109,044
  • Aug 28, 2008 3:16am Aug 28, 2008 3:16am
Quoting Big Bruv
At the mo my analysis still suggests that price will have to go to 206 area before continuing dowm...hmmm ...lets see baby
My dear friend, just want to know, are you still holding your prediction over 206 area?

Will this be mantained if we crack the 199.7x zone?

I usually like your analisis big time, just want to confirm your opinion, and how its supported.

Thanks my man.
The market can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #109,045
  • Aug 28, 2008 3:17am Aug 28, 2008 3:17am
its anyones game right now.

if it breaks 200.27, im going long, to hope to see it challenge 201.20
  • #109,046
  • Aug 28, 2008 3:17am Aug 28, 2008 3:17am
i think selling presure is going to squeeze the pound saterling and clearing 199.70 today is inevitable cause the big Market speculators racing the time to discount an expected rate cut in the next BOE meeting decision.



next targeted level is 193.00 but this one will take some time tobe reached and cleared.

this is my humble analysis not a call.

lucky trading to all.
I always knew that someday I would make it big
  • #109,047
  • Aug 28, 2008 3:20am Aug 28, 2008 3:20am
Quoting forexer
i think selling presure is going to squeeze the pound saterling and clearing 199.70 today is inevitable cause the big Market speculators racing the time to discount an expected rate cut in the next BOE meeting decision.



next targeted level is 193.00 but this one will take some time tobe reached and cleared.

this is my humble analysis not a call.

lucky trading to all.
Wait wait wait, why are we specting a GBP rate cut?, can you explain more?
The market can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent.
  • #109,048
  • Aug 28, 2008 3:20am Aug 28, 2008 3:20am
Quoting karmostaji
200.00 is a good support level looking at the daily chart

this might be our temporary bottom for now, daily chart is screaming for a retracement.
what u think about this karmo..!!
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  • #109,049
  • Aug 28, 2008 3:34am Aug 28, 2008 3:34am
Quoting bmvmx
Wait wait wait, why are we specting a GBP rate cut?, can you explain more?

hi bmvmx,

a rate cut expectaion is just a speculation in the markets, cause the UK economy is in the worst condition since 1970.

there is a historical deterioration in the UK housing sector along with unemployement rate and at the same time rising inflation this what the economist call (stagflation)

therefore pound sterling is expensive and no longer attractive .

so maybe i'm right or wrong it's just speculations and you have to use your skills to play the market in a smart way.


lucky trading to you.
I always knew that someday I would make it big
  • #109,050
  • Aug 28, 2008 3:35am Aug 28, 2008 3:35am
nothing has changed. 5m last 2 up bars. HH on decreasing vol. the bars tested a prior area with more bulls inside but got lower bull action. this tells me that during this congestion the pro's have successfully established to begin removing bulls.
hopefully they dont' try to fool me
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  • #109,051
  • Aug 28, 2008 3:37am Aug 28, 2008 3:37am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
nothing has changed. 5m last 2 up bars. HH on decreasing vol. the bars tested a prior area with more bulls inside but got lower bull action. this tells me that during this congestion the pro's have successfully established to begin removing bulls.
hopefully they dont' try to fool me
do you think we'll break our supports are ~200.2 before we get past 199.7?
  • #109,052
  • Aug 28, 2008 3:40am Aug 28, 2008 3:40am
Quoting mywinfx
what u think about this karmo..!!
be careful, watch out for a break of that CCI TL
  • #109,053
  • Aug 28, 2008 3:42am Aug 28, 2008 3:42am
Quoting rogerdoger
do you think we'll break our supports are ~200.2 before we get past 199.7?
i have no idea. until now it looks bearish without retracing much...but we know the boys which play the geppy, they can change it from one second to the other.

we have reduced vol so i am preparing for a storm to come up hopefully downwards...

just another sign of weakness!! last 5m high vol up bar which even wasn't able to close above any of the 4 prior bars which had lower vol than itself. so in this up bar there definitely was much selling taking place. on of the next bars has to be bearish to show that this vol contained much selling and we still have the same situation.
  • #109,054
  • Aug 28, 2008 3:58am Aug 28, 2008 3:58am
if hour closes above 200.27

we could see gbp/jpy move higher.

I think this is the start of something beautiful

I really think 199.77 will hold for a retracement on the dailies.

way too early to call....but i think that area of 199.77 and 200.27 was a fight, and the longs one out.

But that whole area is support now.
  • #109,055
  • Aug 28, 2008 4:06am Aug 28, 2008 4:06am
Daily chart
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Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #109,056
  • Aug 28, 2008 4:08am Aug 28, 2008 4:08am
200 is full of bids, but i suppose we currently also find enough sell stops above. sidelining till the break of any side. 199.70 or at least 200.50-60 going to 201.15. this congestion sucks much players in for an explosive break. i currently still think any long is a fakeout and effort without result, because it is not sustained as the current move showed.

don't take this as advice. do your own analysis
  • #109,057
  • Aug 28, 2008 4:10am Aug 28, 2008 4:10am
Quoting karmostaji
Daily chart
karmo, had nearly the same situation with eurusd before the current drop and was tempted to join the wrong side...long and was a short.


but end of the day will tell more
  • #109,058
  • Aug 28, 2008 4:11am Aug 28, 2008 4:11am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
200 is full of bids, but i suppose we currently also find enough sell stops above. sidelining till the break of any side. 199.70 or at least 200.50-60 going to 201.15. this congestion sucks much players in for an explosive break. i currently still think any long is a fakeout and effort without result, because it is not sustained as the current move showed.

don't take this as advice. do your own analysis

yeh agreed - early days.

but for some reason, my gut says its going to move to the upside.....my gut is a great barometer.

But your right...anything premature could be a fakeout.
  • #109,059
  • Aug 28, 2008 4:17am Aug 28, 2008 4:17am
Quoting karmostaji
Daily chart
Huge difference between now and the last time it touched 200 and shot back up - UK GDP is 0 and the frail state of the economy is much more evident than back in May.

Plus we are nearer to a rate cut (market expectations). Hence i dont really see the same pattern unfolding because fundamentals have changed quite a lot for UK.
  • #109,060
  • Aug 28, 2008 4:22am Aug 28, 2008 4:22am
this raise also aligns with the yen futures retrace which is taking place.
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