I never proved anything | Forex Factory

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I never proved anything

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 26, 2008 10:49pm Aug 26, 2008 10:49pm
The fact of the matter is, my strategy made a killing some years, and some years it barely made anything.

So what I'm saying is, without premise (there's that word again) you are speculating (a kinder word for gambling.) Then it comes down to the ordering of the sequence of your wins and losses.

All this chatter about "I proved this" and "I proved that" is horse rubbish. The truth is that without a solid reason for your trades to succeed, you will have hot and cold streaks.

Get over it.
  • #2
  • Aug 26, 2008 11:05pm Aug 26, 2008 11:05pm
Well, that post was like a little ray of sunshine.
  • #3
  • Aug 26, 2008 11:20pm Aug 26, 2008 11:20pm
Quoting tdion
The fact of the matter is, my strategy made a killing some years, and some years it barely made anything.


Get over it.

As long as it still made, even if barely, then your ok. Nothing works 100%, but if you made a killing some years and only a little in others, your still making money- no matter how slowly and surely.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #4
  • Aug 27, 2008 12:11am Aug 27, 2008 12:11am
Hey Tdion

Did you feel like stirring the pot on the done to death "the market will equalise all gains in an [almost] zero sum game" issue again?? haha

Or does this one belong to the "systems lose their edge as market adapts and evolves debate"?

Can I for the sake of further frustrating you also cheekily get in here and toot my horn and my 'proof' [due sense of irony intended] on the former debate about a non random market, given that im currently on a 10 trade winner (10 trades documented on FF before hand that is; the streak is slightly more than that otherwise) that accepting a random (ie unpredictable 50/50 proposition as to direction excepting spread) market would mean im impressively beating the odds 1/1024. I think ill go buy a lotto ticket

And yes the above tooting of my horn was entirely tongue in cheek. That sort of streak is nothing special and is something that pro traders are doing every day.

Keep up the agitating!
Lemming Forex! The Way to Trade....
  • #5
  • Aug 27, 2008 12:29am Aug 27, 2008 12:29am
hey putto long time no see

maybe i am getting old or something because i just don't feel like bickering much these days. you are welcome to cheekily disagree all you want to.


yeah, i just wanted to say that a month of good trades is meaningless without being able to show WHY they worked.... and even a year is pretty worthless.
  • #6
  • Aug 27, 2008 12:53am Aug 27, 2008 12:53am
I like the title of the thread.

"I never proved anything"

The truth is nobody has.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #7
  • Aug 27, 2008 1:20am Aug 27, 2008 1:20am
my strategy??

which one.?..I can't seem to able to find it...

sonic
  • #8
  • Aug 27, 2008 1:27am Aug 27, 2008 1:27am
Quote
The fact of the matter is, my strategy made a killing some years, and some years it barely made anything.

I guess to you, 30-40 % annual returns are "barely anything".
  • #9
  • Aug 27, 2008 1:36am Aug 27, 2008 1:36am
hi truthy....

what makes you say that?

i guess the REAL point i was trying to make was that if you can make 1000%s in one year and 50% the next, there isn't too much stopping you from blowing an account.

so trading (in my world) is as entertaining as it is about being a capitist. Because I can't control my outcome (I trade EAs remember)
  • #10
  • Aug 27, 2008 1:37am Aug 27, 2008 1:37am
Quote

i guess the REAL point i was trying to make was that if you can make 1000%s in one year and 50% the next, there isn't too much stopping you from blowing an account.
If people aren't willing to account for say, 3 times the max drawdown seen in a backtest from a significantly large sample, then they shouldn't be trading.
  • #11
  • Aug 27, 2008 1:39am Aug 27, 2008 1:39am
i have posted several profitable strategies, but my best stuff stays secret.

Quoting sonicdeejay
my strategy??

which one.?..I can't seem to able to find it...

sonic
  • #12
  • Aug 27, 2008 1:49am Aug 27, 2008 1:49am
Hey Tom ... you are definitely mellowing with age.
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #13
  • Aug 27, 2008 1:57am Aug 27, 2008 1:57am
Quoting johnedoe
Hey Tom ... you are definitely mellowing with age.
I can definitely appreciate a mellow Tdion...but its hard to have a good argument with yourself though!
Lemming Forex! The Way to Trade....
  • #14
  • Aug 27, 2008 3:38am Aug 27, 2008 3:38am
I know how and why the financial markets works for me.

- It is simple, just buy low and sell high.

- Make sure you have a system that are widely used by Financial Institutions. Not the retail one. Forget about trend trading, PA, FA, TA, psychological, emotions. It is useless.

- Adjust your risk.

- Set your goal.

- Know your limits.

If you fail on these points, you should stop trading. Waste of money.
  • #15
  • Aug 27, 2008 4:05am Aug 27, 2008 4:05am
Didn`t you prove that you believe in yourself?
  • #16
  • Aug 27, 2008 4:24am Aug 27, 2008 4:24am
Quoting 300%mark
I know how and why the financial markets works for me.

- It is simple, just buy low and sell high.

.
huu, how many times does that work out of 100%, i can tell you not more than 60-65% of times. rest times, lows are powerfully breached and highs are powerfully broken, e.g were you not there to see the events of the last week of july/1st week of august ?
well only a good technical trader can spot the 60-65% accurately a 90-100% of times ooooooooo.

well i may be wrong. nothing works a 100% of times in forex that is my orientation. i am still trying to perfect how i can be right in 8 out of 10 trades averagely, though i have gone beyond 6 out of 10.
know thy edge and abide by it ! 4 in it shall thou be successful !
  • #17
  • Aug 27, 2008 4:40am Aug 27, 2008 4:40am
Is it not the case that a theory is only proven when it is proven wrong? Until that point it is impossible to say for certain. So, if you never proved anything, I'd guess you were pretty successful.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
  • #18
  • Aug 27, 2008 5:15am Aug 27, 2008 5:15am
Quoting robertsonakp
huu, how many times does that work out of 100%, i can tell you not more than 60-65% of times. rest times, lows are powerfully breached and highs are powerfully broken, e.g were you not there to see the events of the last week of july/1st week of august ?
well only a good technical trader can spot the 60-65% accurately a 90-100% of times ooooooooo.

well i may be wrong. nothing works a 100% of times in forex that is my orientation. i am still trying to perfect how i can be right in 8 out of 10 trades averagely, though i have gone beyond 6 out of 10.
Yup, I know, you are the same like 95% of the traders.
  • #19
  • Aug 27, 2008 6:28am Aug 27, 2008 6:28am
Quoting 300%mark
Yup, I know, you are the same like 95% of the traders.

Hi 300%mark,

what the 5% are doing that we don't ?
  • #20
  • Edited 7:57pm Aug 27, 2008 7:39pm | Edited 7:57pm
i'm going to start a new thread called "give me something for nothing."

that way, all the freeloaders wanting "BEST EA MAKE ME FOR MONEY" can post there. maybe the threads won't be so cluttered after that....
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