Elliott Wave Trading

USDJPY, a bit of zoom in on H1. It looks like an expanding triangle although it could be a flat too and go down to ~109.50 before doing another high. If it does the high tomorrow (26 August) then expect a strong top.

Continuing http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=207.
The top is in place, for now. We still need to have the TL broken before loading shorts. I'll look to short on the break of 1.6170.

basically this is what see.
EW combined with some other stuff.

anyone with this trade?

Cable..

Cable Update
..

AudUsd pair update..

Closed my trade with 70pips in profit..

EurChf..

Hi all Elliott traders,

I have a questions,

Which wave do you guys trade for better win ratio?

My mentor always say wave C is the best and easy picking.

Update..

I was lucky to get out with profit here..

Failed here..

Hit my SL with -40 pips..

EUR/USD appears to have favored the downside completion of wave (V). A top may be in on w.(IV) at 1.4907, and w.1 down did turn higher last night at 1.4695 as predicted for 100 pip move up to put in w.2 top. Today brought a nice impulsive w.i of 3 down that completed at 1.4670 with a clear 5 wave movement, to help see the trend looks down.

I am watching for an entry with the trend, short @ 1.4720-25 range where the previous wave iv was and .382 fibo. Catching wave 3-5 down is the goal.

With German IFO coming out in 10 minutes, that should be the time to be ready, just from a risk point of view. It is close now....

good trading.

Yes it failed indeed, and this just shows how hard is to spot beforehand the form and the length of a correction...
As of now from my point of view we have again a short setup here. We are at a confluence of 38% and a=c. The question is how do we know the correction is done and dont get stopped again? We don't , but every time we can enter either aggresive or conservative.
In the attached chart the aggresive entry would be at the break of the thin green line (marked 1)). The break of that line tells us that indeed the S/R that we found turned the price around and the large move that we anticipate might follow. However at this point we don't know if it is an impulse move down or just a small bounce or even another correction.
The safest entry is at the break of the green dotted line (marked 2)). It means that we have for a bottom to be in place and we enter on the break of the bottom. Again we don't know that the move will unfold in 5 waves (we never know) but looking at the pattern of the trend the chances are high. In the worst case scenario we'll get a 3 wave move if we're stopped out it would be for a small loss, or be.
Oh there is a 3rd kind of entry, the mindless entry when one enters because he thinks price would turn around without any kind of confirmation from price itself. It looks like for some people it works though. Not for me.

P.S. Price could still go a bit higher, next S/R being at 1.0572 where again we have a confluence.

1.4700 --> 1.4600

100 pips in 12 minutes, and out. nice.

German news was not well received, and EW waves were about to go down any how.

Yap, there were other technical formations to point out the direction. I posted the attached chart on another forum this morning, classic H&S pattern.

Now let's see if the targets are reached.

I like your chart on CAD, looks like a good entry plan.

I drilled down to count the wave in micro level, and see A complete as a flat 3-3-5, then a 3 up for B is done, and C is hard to tell, there was a data feed problem in the pattern with my chart, but guessing around the big gap, it looks like the 5th wave is complete or nearly there, maybe adding more to the tip of 5 of C.

C = 97 A = 93 at this moment +/- using cross-hair rough measurement.

Rather than wait until CAD moves down from 1.0535 to 10435, and give up 100 pips, personally, I would enter after part of C gets taken out around 1.0500. The trick is to use a 1 min BAR chart (not candles), zoomed out to one less than maximum, so you can see every tick and the form it takes. You can actually count 5, 3, flats, triangles, zig-zags, and every thing else in micro detail, and the Fractals are reliable. A favorite MACD type oscillator can help confirm the waves and divergence, plus confirm the count on a medium Stoch for a third time with relative ease. Otherwise, it is difficult to enter when you cannot count the completion of waves. A threw a parallel channel from 0-w.B, and everything fits nicely, with a little throw over on C right now. It looks like a good trade, now, and safer when it turns down around 1.0542-50

Iif you see now the price moved higher, it didn't activate the aggressive setup. Next resistance I see being 1.0572. Then I'll look for an aggressive entry again.

Sometimes it is good to zoom in to lower timeframes, personally however I never zoom lower than 1H. I don't have the time and belief that lower timeframes can really help me that's why I rather identify congestion or S/R areas that I think if they are broken then there's my entry. I place my orders and get back to real work . But as I said this is how it works for me.

Good call on the Head & Shoulders pattern in H4 chart. I saw your other post.

H&S is the top ranked pattern by Bolkowski, but yet just has a 56% chance of meeting its price target. That is not much better than flipping a coin.

Elliot provides ways to improve those pattern odds, by eliminating the false H&S that accounts for the other half of trades, using wave counts. The secret is counting 5s up and down from the head, not 3s. If we get a three coming off the apex, and take a sell at the neckline breakout, we could get stopped by the next impulse wave going up, or an x-wave for a double/triple three.

Learned this lesson the hard way on GBP last summer, and figured out where I went wrong was believing Bulkowski, when Elliot had a superior test to take the trade.

Very nice said FXoffshore! Completely agree.

I prefer wave 3, then 5, then C in that order.

w.1 paves the way by showing a 5 impulse, so you know which way the trend is in that time frame. Wave 2 is the setup, after I count 5, then 3 correction, I am in the zone to catch waves 3-5.

I work off a plan of measured objectives and fibo targets for the range, but put my trust in counting waves in the correct form. When I count the last C wave, and conservatively wait for a turn into the start of the smallest 5 impulse fractal, then I enter on the pullback. If the count is wrong, and goes the other way, my max risk is the gap between the start of w.1 and the end of w.2 - typically .382 of 1. If w.2 is not done and wants to continue, it is a rule that it cannot go beyond the start of w.1, or else the count is invalidated. One of the 3 rules in Elliot.

I also find w.2 much easier to read than w.4, which can be the most complex to figure out in large cycles, like the w.4 the USD Index has been in since March 17th, makes for choppy markets without clear trends. After 5 months in w.4 DX, it will be nice to see impulse waves for long runs inside channels.

Stock Indexes like S&P are in a Supercycle w.(C) now, entering the 3rd of the 3rd down. Wave A began in 2000, and B in 2003, so C is likely going to be a deep bear for a couple more years. This is the Trade of a lifetime shorting the Indexes, if you can do it on small margin. It took 34 years to reach a peak in large w.(V) and nearly everyone missed it, but it may only take 3 years to get back to a DOW level w.(4) from 1974.