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A System i'm working on

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 14, 2007 1:20am Feb 14, 2007 1:20am
Hello Everybody.

I'm working in the last few weeks on a system, it's very based on a very basic methods.

I'm not going to get into it atm, because i still not sure if it worth anyting.

I have a question to all of you, i know most systems trying to catch big moves, with a good win/lose ratio and etc.

I've backtest my system for the EURUSD intraday data from 2002.

The system is always working on hard 15 pips target and 15 pips stop loss, only a 1:1 ratio, and only 15 pips for winning trades.

But, it is very stable, it's based only on the less active hours, (2 - 3 hours after the the US markets are closed).

My back testing results are around 400 positions in the last 5 years, 23% loses and 77% wins.

The max loses in a row was 5 loses and the max wins in a row was 24.

I've backtested that system, also only on the 2006 data, and got almost the exact same results.

Do you think that it worth anyting, 77% winning trades and only 5 loses in a row aginst max 24 winning a row is Great.

But each winning/losing trade is only 15 pips, and the ratio is only 1:1.

What do you think ?

Thanks.
  • #2
  • Feb 14, 2007 1:35am Feb 14, 2007 1:35am
post it up, let me take a look at it and will add some spice on it and make those losses go away.
{Promotion Removed}
  • #3
  • Feb 14, 2007 7:11pm Feb 14, 2007 7:11pm
Hello Benzonakatan, I am really interested in you posting you system as a system that have a good winning ratio after 17:00pm ET is certainely for me as I work from 08:00am ET to 16:00PM ET. So, I am definetely interested. Also, a 77% win ratio is very good for me.

And if Forexpert310 want to help you refine it, I am more than 100% sure that this will become a very profitable system.

So, please go ahead and post it so we can havea look at it

Thank in advance and have great trading

Sincerly

Shreem
  • #4
  • Feb 14, 2007 7:55pm Feb 14, 2007 7:55pm
Agree, please post it
  • #5
  • Feb 14, 2007 8:08pm Feb 14, 2007 8:08pm
Quoting benzonakatan
Hello Everybody.

I'm working in the last few weeks on a system, it's very based on a very basic methods.

I'm not going to get into it atm, because i still not sure if it worth anyting.

I have a question to all of you, i know most systems trying to catch big moves, with a good win/lose ratio and etc.

I've backtest my system for the EURUSD intraday data from 2002.

The system is always working on hard 15 pips target and 15 pips stop loss, only a 1:1 ratio, and only 15 pips for winning trades.

But, it is very stable, it's based only on the less active hours, (2 - 3 hours after the the US markets are closed).

My back testing results are around 400 positions in the last 5 years, 23% loses and 77% wins.

The max loses in a row was 5 loses and the max wins in a row was 24.

I've backtested that system, also only on the 2006 data, and got almost the exact same results.

Do you think that it worth anyting, 77% winning trades and only 5 loses in a row aginst max 24 winning a row is Great.

But each winning/losing trade is only 15 pips, and the ratio is only 1:1.

What do you think ?

Thanks.
If your system actually performs as you describe, it will be phenomenal to trade. I would caution you that with such low tp/sl points, spreads and slippage are going to very important factors in the real world. I'm not sure how you accounted or such things, but regardless I would recommend that your forward test it on a very small live account so you can get a feel for those results.

And don't share it. You worked hard to find it. Don't give it away to any Joe that asks for it. If you want to give back then (after it is extensively tested on a live account) take on a few students.
  • #6
  • Feb 15, 2007 3:05am Feb 15, 2007 3:05am
Hi,
Quoting benzonakatan
The system is always working on hard 15 pips target and 15 pips stop loss, only a 1:1 ratio, and only 15 pips for winning trades.
With small targets and stoploss, spread becomes a large factor. Just make sure the spread is fully accounted for.

Best regards
Alan
  • #7
  • Feb 19, 2007 11:56am Feb 19, 2007 11:56am
Ok, here is an update for my system, i'm not planning to list it in the near future, i want to continue backtest it, then demo test it, then real time test it, make some money out of it and then i'll be happy to share it.

This is the current results that i got, i run it this time on the USDCHF pair, backtest results since 2002.

For each trade the stop loss is 30 pips and the target is 28 pips (yes i know, it's less than 1:1).

Here are the results :

Total Stops:87, Targets:232.
Total TimeStopLoses:23, TimeStopWins:30.
Total NonTriggered:686.
Max Loses in a row:6.
Max Wins in a row:19.

TimeStopLoses/TimeStopWins are positions that got into a specific time without hitting the stop/target, so then automaticly closed.

Here is more detail info for the amount of winning/losing positions in a row :

losing in a row status:
1 --> 43 Times.
2 --> 11 Times.
3 --> 5 Times.
6 --> 1 Times.

winning in a row status:
1 --> 14 Times.
2 --> 12 Times.
3 --> 8 Times.
4 --> 10 Times.
5 --> 5 Times.
6 --> 3 Times.
7 --> 2 Times.
8 --> 2 Times.
9 --> 2 Times.
10 --> 2 Times.
19 --> 1 Times.

For example, 1 --> 43, means that it won 1 position in a row for 43 times, 2 ---> 11 means that i got 2 times in a row for 11 times and etc.

As you can see it lost only one time 6 positions in a row (in the last 5 years), and on around 80% it's never lose more than 2 positions in a row.

Total Pips Won/Lost: 3228.00000000001

I know that 3228 pips aren't alot for 5 years, but note that it's almost never losing more then 2 positions in a row, and got a 1:2.5 winning ratio, so you can use it with higher levearge trades as well.

I'm continuing testing this system, please tell me if you think that kind of system worth anyting.

Thanks.
  • #8
  • Feb 20, 2007 1:49am Feb 20, 2007 1:49am
Benzonakatan, what is the reason of your thread? I believe that people open threads for getting opinions or help, and you just post the statistics, which looks great, so what is then?
  • #9
  • Feb 20, 2007 2:40am Feb 20, 2007 2:40am
Quoting Trader83
Benzonakatan, what is the reason of your thread? I believe that people open threads for getting opinions or help, and you just post the statistics, which looks great, so what is then?
i think he still working hard to tweak his system to be more perfect.be patience dude
  • #10
  • Feb 20, 2007 4:32am Feb 20, 2007 4:32am
Quoting Trader83
Benzonakatan, what is the reason of your thread? I believe that people open threads for getting opinions or help, and you just post the statistics, which looks great, so what is then?
The reason is that i'm kind of newbie for forex trading, i keep heaing trade only with a minimum of 1:2 ratio, and etc..

My system is even a little bet less than 1:1 and it's kinda diffrent from all of the other systems, so i'm not sure if it worth anyting.

That's why i'm asking.
  • #11
  • Feb 20, 2007 9:38pm Feb 20, 2007 9:38pm
Quoting benzonakatan
The reason is that i'm kind of newbie for forex trading, i keep heaing trade only with a minimum of 1:2 ratio, and etc..

My system is even a little bet less than 1:1 and it's kinda diffrent from all of the other systems, so i'm not sure if it worth anyting.

That's why i'm asking.

Dude,

Its worth something, maybe one of our programmers here can tweak it a little, but regardless, its worth taking a look at, you shouldnt worry about it being a holy grail or not sharing it, cause that doesnt exist, you should post it, and get the experienced people here involved.
just my thoughts
  • #12
  • Last Post: Feb 21, 2007 5:50am Feb 21, 2007 5:50am
if you have such a nice winning % and not so many loses in a row ,and fixed pip target you should also consider using martingale principle, it should increase your earnings

good luck
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