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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #5,641
  • Aug 22, 2008 10:25pm Aug 22, 2008 10:25pm
You got me confused for awhile until I knew u were talking about EUR bull/bear and not USD bull/bear.

I totally agree on not focusing. Lately, I've become lazy, just waiting til a proper strong direction to show. Thank god I wasn't long at that moment or I will be waking up to a rescue or cut loss.
Read 'The disciplined trader'.
  • #5,642
  • Edited Aug 24, 2008 8:14am Aug 23, 2008 8:37am | Edited Aug 24, 2008 8:14am
Quoting lilpip
After yesterdays bearish rally I just new this was the begining of a retracement for the month that I was anticipating.
I new the bears were alive, so much so that I didn't pay attention to what the market was telling me, no need to feel her as I already new, any bullish retracement was only temperary and my rescues were as good as money in the bank.

Only to realize in the end it wasn't going to be my bank.

The price paid for not living in the here and now, not feeling the market and and recognizing what she wants to do.

It only takes 1 day of not focusing and your down 10%.
Lilpip, although painful, you will recover...

My thoughts for the day -maybe useful to you: I pay a lot of attention to 1D and 1H. It is not because they tell me about the 5M direction, but because they tell me about the mood of the day. I trade the 5M so I find the inmediate time -the last 1 or 2 hours- most useful. As long as give higher weight to 15M trend and rythm, I am Ok. Whenever I move my mind away from 15M, I am surprised. Meaning: TA farther than 15 min away from the moment is very risky:1-15M bar is just 3 -5M bars.

Regards
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #5,643
  • Edited 3:35pm Aug 24, 2008 12:09pm | Edited 3:35pm
Quoting luSan
Lilpip, although painful, you will recover...

My thoughts for the day -maybe useful to you: I pay a lot of attention to 1D and 1H. It is not because they tell me about the 5M direction, but because they tell me about the mood of the day. I trade the 5M so I find the inmediate time -the last 1 or 2 hours- most useful. As long as give higher weight to 15M trend and rythm, I am Ok. Whenever I move my mind away from 15M, I am surprised. Meaning: TA farther than 15 min away from the moment is very risky:1-15M bar is just 3 -5M bars.

Regards
I appreciate the reminders as I also just reviewed, reflected and meditated on AOW also.
Nothing would have helped me friday as my frame of mind was closed, focused on what I thought was going to happen and My rescues were even careless as they were sent to ride all the way back rather than getting out.

Its funny, you have a little success and it goes to your head.
Again thats covered in AOW also.

May we all stay alert and have a good last week of the month.
  • #5,644
  • Aug 24, 2008 12:15pm Aug 24, 2008 12:15pm
I chanced upon this thread exactly a week ago and have been lurking here since trying to catch up on what’s been discussed so far. What strikes me is the spirit of sharing and learning here. However, I’ve been slow on the uptake and am hoping that the more advanced learners here would help me along.

From what I’ve read (up to page 80 plus the more recent postings so far), I’m trying to make sense of fti methodology:

(a) Firstly, go along with the trend if there is any because the trend is our only friend. This we do so by aligning our position on our lower TF to the higher TF trend.
(b) Secondly, it’s in the corrective phase on a lower TF where our fti battles or MOs are waged. These battles are – in fti parlance – either attack campaigns (if our scout got it right the 1st time) or rescue campaigns. An area to pay attention to is the leg size of the correction phase and something like its TR or volatility is significant. Also, as per LeighSWW, we shouldn’t enter here on any preconceived levels but rather on whether the PA looks like it’s going back in the direction of the trend.
(c) Third is Money & Bet-Size Management. As I understand, this is the crux of fti’s methodology. It relies on fib progressions and averaging buy or sell scout entries. In a rescue campaign, we can theoretically keep sending larger forces to save the scout and the earlier rescue squads. In practice, we don’t have unlimited funds so we cannot do that. Sizing according to fib progressions in this MM, as Lusan explains “keeps the average in a safe place” though how it does so is, like fibo phenomena in nature, a mystery.
(d) The 4th concept is somewhat Zen-like and I find it even harder to catch on. It says cryptically to dance naked to the rhythm of the market…No indicators, not even trendlines or pre-conceived support/resistance levels. Or are there aspects of TA here that are not discussed? How then, for instance, do we decide at what price level to enter each time during a rescue campaign?

Ok, I’m sure many of you will be able to spot deficiencies in my notes. I hope you’ll be kind enough to point them out for the benefit of late stragglers like me…many thanks in advance!
  • #5,645
  • Edited 4:40pm Aug 24, 2008 3:46pm | Edited 4:40pm
Quoting sichuan
I chanced upon this thread exactly a week ago and have been lurking here since trying to catch up on what’s been discussed so far. What strikes me is the spirit of sharing and learning here. However, I’ve been slow on the uptake and am hoping that the more advanced learners here would help me along.

From what I’ve read (up to page 80 plus the more recent postings so far), I’m trying to make sense of fti methodology:

(a) Firstly, go along with the trend if there is any because the trend is our only friend. This we do so by aligning our position on our lower TF to the higher TF trend.
(b) Secondly, it’s in the corrective phase on a lower TF where our fti battles or MOs are waged. These battles are – in fti parlance – either attack campaigns (if our scout got it right the 1st time) or rescue campaigns. An area to pay attention to is the leg size of the correction phase and something like its TR or volatility is significant. Also, as per LeighSWW, we shouldn’t enter here on any preconceived levels but rather on whether the PA looks like it’s going back in the direction of the trend.
(c) Third is Money & Bet-Size Management. As I understand, this is the crux of fti’s methodology. It relies on fib progressions and averaging buy or sell scout entries. In a rescue campaign, we can theoretically keep sending larger forces to save the scout and the earlier rescue squads. In practice, we don’t have unlimited funds so we cannot do that. Sizing according to fib progressions in this MM, as Lusan explains “keeps the average in a safe place” though how it does so is, like fibo phenomena in nature, a mystery.
(d) The 4th concept is somewhat Zen-like and I find it even harder to catch on. It says cryptically to dance naked to the rhythm of the market…No indicators, not even trendlines or pre-conceived support/resistance levels. Or are there aspects of TA here that are not discussed? How then, for instance, do we decide at what price level to enter each time during a rescue campaign?

Ok, I’m sure many of you will be able to spot deficiencies in my notes. I hope you’ll be kind enough to point them out for the benefit of late stragglers like me…many thanks in advance!
As you read through the thread and as you reread fti's posts and responses the picture becomes clearer.
As far as rescues, each trade is different depending on PA is my understanding.
Review his examples of rescueing.
  • #5,646
  • Aug 25, 2008 12:05am Aug 25, 2008 12:05am
Hi ALL,

The distribution after a fierce bull run, inspite of bad USD fundamental undertones.
Is the bull dead?
The bears certainly are.
I do not believe any bear would have held to positions.
So where is the dangers?
Now, a bull is not every bulls friend, as when they were on the run.
Now every bull is the other bulls enemy.

But where is this bull's greatest dangers?

HINT: Who is carrying most USD surpluses from trade?

regards

This is Undertone and Directional Analysis (THINKING), do not let this affect the dance.
  • #5,647
  • Aug 25, 2008 12:07am Aug 25, 2008 12:07am
hello fti and everyone

back on page 320 and noticed fti's avatar changed from beautiful dragon to wise .....owl.

loved that dragon miss it already

may we all have a successful trading week

joy
  • #5,648
  • Aug 25, 2008 12:16am Aug 25, 2008 12:16am
Hi ALL,
Anyone knows , which economy was weakest, in this whole episode?
They had no answer to the markets , cos they had no natural resource.
And the whole "cost" equation of industrialisation is now the driving force.
Therefore to survive many of their industry champions have to operate from off home, be aware, they had been very quiet, to seek the alternatives.
But do not forget , that they are the world's second in command , as far as international trade is concerned, at least to the "free" world.

regards

Again , do not allow this think tanking to affect your dance.
I am trying to understand the fundamentals that may be at the forefront of the play.
  • #5,649
  • Aug 25, 2008 12:20am Aug 25, 2008 12:20am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,

The distribution after a fierce bull run, inspite of bad USD fundamental undertones.
Is the bull dead?
The bears certainly are.
I do not believe any bear would have held to positions.
So where is the dangers?
Now, a bull is not every bulls friend, as when they were on the run.
Now every bull is the other bulls enemy.

But where is this bull's greatest dangers?

HINT: Who is carrying most USD surpluses from trade?

regards

This is Undertone and Directional Analysis (THINKING), do not let this affect the dance.
I have read this so many times my head hurts...will have to come back to it later as dancing at present..

joy
  • #5,650
  • Aug 25, 2008 12:21am Aug 25, 2008 12:21am
Morning FTI,

'Zhongguo'

ps - why would a bull be an enemy to another bull?
  • #5,651
  • Aug 25, 2008 12:23am Aug 25, 2008 12:23am
Good morning friends!

Quoting fti

[...]

HINT: Who is carrying most USD surpluses from trade?
Ouuuuch - using my brain after getting/waking up this way is painful.
USD trade surplus?
Round about 120 billion = China???
  • #5,652
  • Aug 25, 2008 12:30am Aug 25, 2008 12:30am
Quoting piccolo
Morning FTI,

'Zhongguo'

ps - why would a bull be an enemy to another bull?
Hi piccolo,
Because , on the charge they feeding on the bears.
Mostly there's no bears around. Either they are bleeding and had sized for long long term, or they are waiting for reinforcements, mostly waiting.
So what should bulls feed on now?
If you understand this then you would understand all the gapping action thats taking place.

regards
  • #5,653
  • Edited 1:18am Aug 25, 2008 12:31am | Edited 1:18am
Quoting MaMood
Good morning friends!



Ouuuuch - using my brain after getting/waking up this way is painful.
USD trade surplus?
Round about 120 billion = China???
Hi MaMood,
Any ideas what all this Eurodollar's are doing?

regards

Before any one start OT posts.
Let me educate you that.

Eurodollar= Eurodollar deposits= Deposits of USD outside the USA.and this is a Money market instrument.


Please do not mistaken with.

EUR/USD= European Currency against USD
This currency pair in interbank is known as "E" "Q".
  • #5,654
  • Aug 25, 2008 1:01am Aug 25, 2008 1:01am
Quoting fti
Hi MaMood,
Any ideas what all this Eurodollar's are doing?
Hi fti,

thanx for your differentiation between eurodollar and EURUSD.

OK - what are all these eurodollars are doing?
No idea - I'm very weak on economic insights. But let me try:
- carry on interest?
- investing in foreign economies?

Btw; Sorry for my delay in this lesson. Dancing USDJPY on the longside with reduced sizes.
  • #5,655
  • Edited 1:06am Aug 25, 2008 1:04am | Edited 1:06am
Quoting MaMood
Hi fti,

thanx for your differentiation between eurodollar and EURUSD.

OK - what are all these eurodollars are doing?
No idea - I'm very weak on economic insights. But let me try:
- carry on interest?
- investing in foreign economies?
and eurodollars not subject to rules and regulations set by fed reserve.
eg. interest rates (i'm not very clever with this stuff either but trying to learn)
  • #5,656
  • Aug 25, 2008 1:14am Aug 25, 2008 1:14am
Quoting joypips
and eurodollars not subject to rules and regulations set by fed reserve.
eg. interest rates (i'm not very clever with this stuff either but trying to learn)
Hi joy,

fti's question are some good reminders to finish/start reading Adam Smith book "Paper money". I'm sorry to say I stopped reading at page 70 ...
  • #5,657
  • Aug 25, 2008 1:17am Aug 25, 2008 1:17am
Quoting MaMood
Hi joy,

fti's question are some good reminders to finish/start reading Adam Smith book "Paper money". I'm sorry to say I stopped reading at page 70 ...
Yes same here i need to reread paper money myself...
  • #5,658
  • Edited 1:51am Aug 25, 2008 1:17am | Edited 1:51am
Quoting joypips
and eurodollars not subject to rules and regulations set by fed reserve.
eg. interest rates (i'm not very clever with this stuff either but trying to learn)
Hi joypips,

You're correct, and in the ACU markets, how many economies, can withstand the proxy of this external USD reserves?

regards

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  • #5,659
  • Aug 25, 2008 1:23am Aug 25, 2008 1:23am
Quoting MaMood
Hi joy,

fti's question are some good reminders to finish/start reading Adam Smith book "Paper money". I'm sorry to say I stopped reading at page 70 ...
hi MaMood
I have finished 'paper money' and even though quite a lot of it I didn't understand, I absolutely loved it. It has made me want to know and understand more.... I am going to re-read it after a bit more study about opec today.

joy
  • #5,660
  • Aug 25, 2008 1:23am Aug 25, 2008 1:23am
Some info's on eurodollars:

http://www.richmondfed.org/publicati...arket/ch05.cfm
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