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Knowledge is Power

  • #841
  • Aug 7, 2008 10:53pm Aug 7, 2008 10:53pm
Quoting Qwert
Yeah, right. Maybe you'll say otherwise again since E/U is dropping. EU was between 1.5239 - 1.5245 as of your above post. You better say at what price you made your long EU and what TP. But I'm sure you'll wait for price to go up before you respond.

Please be reminded that Warren trade using fundamentals but scalps. As far as I know, fundamentalist don't scalp a few pips.

Note to those who were burned by shorting UJ because of Warren - Check out the post below that might have made Warren go to EURUSD thread. I thought it won't make a dent on his EGO but I guess it did.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=11127
From the EURUSD thread:

I now have completed 28 FX trades for a profit of $2,356.25 US Dollars !

My last 2 FX trades I got in at 1.52058 and 1.52077 at 9:17 and 9:19 PM and got out at 9:25 PM for a quick profit of $188.00 US Dollars.

Just a short time before the anouncement he wrote he was long on the EURUSD.

Always amazes me after many years of seeing these lies that he still continues along the same route.

He will probably return to answer these criticisms with some twisted answer.

And all this on a mickey mouse demo platform.

Just imagine what he has done to the one million in Managed forex funds which he says he has.

He is and always will be a complete liar.

DO NOT READ OR USE FUNDAMENTALS UNLESS YOUR LEVERAGE IS BELOW 1:1
  • #842
  • Aug 7, 2008 11:15pm Aug 7, 2008 11:15pm
Quoting Qwert
Yeah, right. Maybe you'll say otherwise again since E/U is dropping. EU was between 1.5239 - 1.5245 as of your above post. You better say at what price you made your long EU and what TP. But I'm sure you'll wait for price to go up before you respond.

Please be reminded that Warren trade using fundamentals but scalps. As far as I know, fundamentalist don't scalp a few pips.

Note to those who were burned by shorting UJ because of Warren - Check out the post below that might have made Warren go to EURUSD thread. I thought it won't make a dent on his EGO but I guess it did.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=11127

With Respect To You Personally ! Who Are You ?

I do not need to answer to you. Your agenda is clear based on your comments. By replying anymore we will not keep with the spirit of this thread.

You are welcome to stick to FX trading and leave the personal comments out.

They serve no purpose and are in violation of Rule Number One.

Have A Good Evening !!!


Bruce
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  • #843
  • Aug 7, 2008 11:22pm Aug 7, 2008 11:22pm
Quoting Warren Forex
With Respect To You Personally ! Who Are You ?

I do not need to answer to you. Your agenda is clear based on your comments. By replying anymore we will not keep with the spirit of this thread.

You are welcome to stick to FX trading and leave the personal comments out.

They serve no purpose and are in violation of Rule Number One.

Have A Good Evening !!!


Bruce
Once again proven completely wrong. How many mickey mouse demo platforms have you blown apart now ?

I sincerely apologise for writing that you are a liar, this was wrong of me.
  • #844
  • Aug 9, 2008 4:23pm Aug 9, 2008 4:23pm
Have A Nice Pleasant Weekend !

Where will EUR/USD end up same time next week ?

My pure guess only is 1.5225

Where will USD/JPY end up same time next week ?

My pure guess only is 109.00

What is your call ?


Bruce
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  • #845
  • Aug 10, 2008 1:23am Aug 10, 2008 1:23am
Quoting Warren Forex
Have A Nice Pleasant Weekend !

Where will EUR/USD end up same time next week ?

My pure guess only is 1.5225

Where will USD/JPY end up same time next week ?

My pure guess only is 109.00

What is your call ?


Bruce
Bruce,

Any analysis to explain why you are bullish on EUR/USD??

sonic
  • #846
  • Aug 10, 2008 8:51pm Aug 10, 2008 8:51pm
Quoting Warren Forex
Have A Nice Pleasant Weekend !

Where will EUR/USD end up same time next week ?

My pure guess only is 1.5225

Where will USD/JPY end up same time next week ?

My pure guess only is 109.00

What is your call ?


Bruce
Quoting sonicdeejay
Bruce,

Any analysis to explain why you are bullish on EUR/USD??

sonic
It is very clear that oldtimer said he's purely guessing. A fundamentalist that now state his position very clearly on E/U and U/J. In case anyone didn't see it clearly, it reads - "PURE GUESS."
  • #847
  • Aug 10, 2008 9:56pm Aug 10, 2008 9:56pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
Bruce,

Any analysis to explain why you are bullish on EUR/USD??

sonic
Hello ! How Are You ?

I posted this earlier tonight on the EUR/USD Thread !!!

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/s...n/post_old.gif Aug 10, 2008 7:34pm
Warren Forex http://www.forexfactory.com/images/s...ser_online.gif
Warrenforex
Member Since Sep 2006
Posts: 1,382


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif This Is The Way It Works Fundamentally !!!
This is my personal view of how to play EUR/USD

This is also my view of what will probably happen to cause EUR/USD to return to the 1.5500 level. Japan has yet to open so we need to see if anymore liquidation of EUR/USD longs will come from Japan.

Then we need to see if there is anymore longs to be sold in Europe. This selling will also include Margin Calls.

When the entities that NEED to buy their Inventory which is MONEY see that the market has stabilized the first ones that need to build up their inventory of Euro Dollars will start to buy. When the others see it move up they will get in to buy at the best price possible. Others that have lost fortunes since Thursday such as large Hedge Funds will start to buy as well.

It is called Supply and Demand !!! The More Buyers there is the more the EUR/USD goes up. The INTERVENTION and Panic Selling has ended.

I will not buy EUR/USD until I see it move over 1.5000 and hold there and above. I will wait until at least 2:00 AM EST before I go back into EUR/USD

I am also watching USD/JPY because I have a feeling that it might be ready to reverse directions if the Dow starts to sell off again.

If for any reason you see Oil moving Back over $120.00 or better yet $125.00 you will also see Gold move back towards $900.00

You should also watch the Yield on the 2 Year Treasury Bonds and the 10 Year Ones. The spread between the two of them is also important.

That tells you were the money is flowing. When the US Bonds are sold the Yield Goes Up and the Cash either goes into Oil or Gold Or other Currencies.

Follow the Money Flow. The Charts are useful to see where the New Support and Resistance Levels are.

I am going to be highly amused when I see the so called experts talking about the need to CUT FED funds to below 2% as the Meltdown continues in Housing and Financials.

Then Trichet will Hint at a Rate Increase and Guess What, The EUR/USD is again above 1.5500

The Lower Euro causes more inflation since it is also more expensive to buy Oil. If and When Oil goes back up the Inflation issue is back on the table.

When the Dow melts down Risk Aversion is back on the Table and USD/JPY heads back towards 106.00

Gold will eventually go Over $900 US again and sooner than even I think because of the constant printing of Dollars by the Central Banks to replace Money the Banks are not lending because they themselves are in serious financial shape.

These are my thoughts and mine alone. Right or Wrong I have shared them with you. It should be a interesting week in Forex .


Good FX Trading To All !!!

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

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  • #848
  • Aug 11, 2008 3:30am Aug 11, 2008 3:30am
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/s...n/post_new.gif Aug 11, 2008 4:27am
Warren Forex http://www.forexfactory.com/images/s...ser_online.gif
Warrenforex
Member Since Sep 2006
Posts: 1,402


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif Now I Know Why Insanity Rules !!!
My trade platform as I previously posted has been calling for a retrace to 1.4910

These are Experts People. Now they are calling Long to 1.5200

Great Consistency !!!

Here is part of why the EUR/USD got Stronger !!!

Trichet's BUDDY just said on Friday reported now NEVER MIND !!! Game On !!!

Insanity Rules and Fools Follow along at the cost of Billions of loss.

None of us are fools but the market is exactly that !!!

08:09 EUR/USD: Asian Demand On-Going As EUR Re-Claims 1.50 London, August 11. The constantly changing position at the ECB is generating volatility with the latest standpoint from Liebscher providing EUR/USD with a bounce back to and through the 1.50 level. The ECB official has said there is no room for complacency on rates. This follows last week"s ECB rhetoric suggesting there were growth concerns within the central bank.

Asian demand has been prevalent from the European open along with buying out of Zurich. The bulk of the demand kicked in from 1.4930 and small intraday stops helped the EUR through 1.4970, 1.5000 and 1.5025 to reach 1.5055. We had seen scope to 1.4900 as early bounces from 1.4910 found supply but the ECB views look to have shaped a new bias for the EUR. Initial resistance now at 1.5065, a sell off point from late Friday. [email protected]

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

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  • #849
  • Aug 11, 2008 4:29am Aug 11, 2008 4:29am
Quoting Warren Forex
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/s...n/post_new.gif Aug 11, 2008 4:27am
Warren Forex http://www.forexfactory.com/images/s...ser_online.gif
Warrenforex
Member Since Sep 2006
Posts: 1,402


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif Now I Know Why Insanity Rules !!!
My trade platform as I previously posted has been calling for a retrace to 1.4910

These are Experts People. Now they are calling Long to 1.5200

Great Consistency !!!

Here is part of why the EUR/USD got Stronger !!!

Trichet's BUDDY just said on Friday reported now NEVER MIND !!! Game On !!!

Insanity Rules and Fools Follow along at the cost of Billions of loss.

None of us are fools but the market is exactly that !!!

08:09 EUR/USD: Asian Demand On-Going As EUR Re-Claims 1.50 London, August 11. The constantly changing position at the ECB is generating volatility with the latest standpoint from Liebscher providing EUR/USD with a bounce back to and through the 1.50 level. The ECB official has said there is no room for complacency on rates. This follows last week"s ECB rhetoric suggesting there were growth concerns within the central bank.

Asian demand has been prevalent from the European open along with buying out of Zurich. The bulk of the demand kicked in from 1.4930 and small intraday stops helped the EUR through 1.4970, 1.5000 and 1.5025 to reach 1.5055. We had seen scope to 1.4900 as early bounces from 1.4910 found supply but the ECB views look to have shaped a new bias for the EUR. Initial resistance now at 1.5065, a sell off point from late Friday. [email protected]

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

I enjoy your posts and always have but you do know that you are wasting your time in the EU thread right? Those people will not listen nor care, they know it all already and nothing you say or do will change that, they already have the answers before you post.
I gave up on that thread a long time ago and every once in a while I will post and immediately I will have a negative response so I just delete my stuff and let them continue to know everything and lose money.

dont bother with them, they are the wannabes of trading, wanna be traders but never will because they have the answers already and refuse to be educated on the simple things that move markets. Its squiggly lines and lots of trendlines intersecting that move it, didnt yu know that?
Don't chase the market, Let the market come to you
  • #850
  • Aug 11, 2008 5:54am Aug 11, 2008 5:54am
Quoting Tmac
I enjoy your posts and always have but you do know that you are wasting your time in the EU thread right? Those people will not listen nor care, they know it all already and nothing you say or do will change that, they already have the answers before you post.
I gave up on that thread a long time ago and every once in a while I will post and immediately I will have a negative response so I just delete my stuff and let them continue to know everything and lose money.

dont bother with them, they are the wannabes of trading, wanna be traders but never will because they have the answers already and refuse to be educated on the simple things that move markets. Its squiggly lines and lots of trendlines intersecting that move it, didnt yu know that?
Thank You for your remarks. I have similar experiences at Oanda so I am used to it. I know I help because I get many PM'S so I try hard to move on but yesterday was worse than usual. Thanks for your support.


Bruce
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  • #851
  • Aug 15, 2008 11:51pm Aug 15, 2008 11:51pm
I will post in this thread again if there is any interest in my doing so.

Please let me know. Thank You !!!


Bruce
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  • #852
  • Aug 17, 2008 8:10am Aug 17, 2008 8:10am
I found this post a few minutes ago and it is really informative so I am posting the link here to be read if it interests you.

Have a GREAT Sunday and an excellent FX trading week.

http://www.oanda.com/products/bigmac/bigmac.shtml


Bruce
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  • #853
  • Aug 17, 2008 1:17pm Aug 17, 2008 1:17pm
05:44 JPY Outlook For The Week - JPY May Play "Catch-Up
Sydney, August 17:

Review The JPY was strong through the early part of last week and defied the USD trend higher until Thursday/Friday. The JPY strength was not due to rising risk aversion or strong Japanese data, but was simply due to the fact that the market was unwinding "decoupling" strategies and the JPY was not one of the beneficiaries of the decoupling strategies when they were put on by long-term investors. The JPY was also buoyed by Japanese retail investors unwinding carry trades that were under extreme pressure due to the heavy falls in currencies such as the AUD and GBP. Another JPY supportive factor was talk all last week of heavy redemptions and coupon repayments in both Euro-bonds and Treasuries. The supporting flows dried up by Friday and the USD/JPY finally broke above the 110.00 level and stayed bid right through to the US close on Friday.

Preview The JPY only lost 0.15% against the rising USD last week on an open close basis, but now looks poised to play "catch-up" if the US dollar continues to broadly trend higher. The shake out of carry trades by Japanese retail investors was fairly light and not expected to continue to any great degree. The break and close above the 110 level in the USD/JPY was a bullish event and has set the stage for a run up to 112.

Key Japan data in the week ahead
18-19 n/a BoJ holds two-day policy board meeting
18Aug 05:00 Leading ind (rev)
19Aug 06:30 BoJ"s Shirakawa holds regular news conference
20Aug 23:50 All-industry activity
20Aug 05:00 BoJ releases monthly economic report
22Aug 23:50 Trade balance
22Aug 23:50 BoJ releases minutes of Jul 14-15 policy board meeting

Technical View The break and close above 110.35 was a bullish event for the USD/JPY. The base of the weekly ichimoku cloud comes in around 110.60 at the start of the week and then descends to 109.45 by the end of the week. There is no other technical resistance until a weekly high at 112.65 and the nest strong resistance is found at 114.65. Support is found at the ascending tenkan line at 109.20 and a break below that level would ease the upward pressure. --

[email protected]
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  • #854
  • Aug 18, 2008 2:18am Aug 18, 2008 2:18am
Thanks for your insights and pls dnt mind those guys they are a bit lacking in maturity,pls i will like to ask how do u measure the difference between the 2 and 10 yr bond,i.e when greater than what value will it favor the dollar or viceversa,you insight are highly appreciated and valued,thanks
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #855
  • Aug 18, 2008 4:04am Aug 18, 2008 4:04am
Quoting lordgbengs
Thanks for your insights and pls dnt mind those guys they are a bit lacking in maturity,pls i will like to ask how do u measure the difference between the 2 and 10 yr bond,i.e when greater than what value will it favor the dollar or viceversa,you insight are highly appreciated and valued,thanks
Thank you for your comments !

As for the Yield on the 2 Year and 10 Year when the Bonds are sold the Yield goes up and this usually means the funds are going elsewhere. Try to see where they might be going. When they are being bought the Yield goes up and it means funds are going into the safety of Bonds but it depends why it is happening. I use the spread berween the 2 Bonds in question to see how it relates to USD/JPY.

When the USD/JPY was lower months ago the spread stayed around 166 Basis points. As the US Dollar got stronger the spread got more narrow. Now the Yield on the 10 Year is 3.83% so it is going down and this happens as Yen is getting Stronger as is Gold this AM.

I hope this helps you some. In summary my main benefit is in seeing where the money is flowing.


Bruce
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  • #856
  • Aug 19, 2008 1:07am Aug 19, 2008 1:07am
For Those Who Have Not Seen This !

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif Fred's Rules !!!
These are rules of trading done by my friend Fred, a commodity trader. The rules were published in a futures trading magazine called "Trends In Futures"

These rules should be followed as they stand the test of time !!!



Fred’s Rules

FINALLY...
I would like to share with you My personal parameters for
successful commodity trading, provided by FS, a
TIF subscriber. I think these are great and they mirror many of
my personal trading rules. Serious traders, consider this a
keeper. Here it is in Freds words:
With regard to my rules, most of them have been around
a lot longer than me and although well-known on the logic
level, are sometimes difficult to implement/execute.
Personally, I think the most important rule is the first one
since all the others are essentially predicated on it. Keep up
the good work with TIF!
1. NEVER trade with funds you cannot afford to lose
the stress will negatively impact your judgment.
2. NEVER put on a trade without a SIMULTANEOUS
stop loss. Period. This is seminal.
3. NEVER change a stop loss except to move it up/down
as a position moves in your favor. Otherwise just let the stop
loss take you out of the position within predetermined
parameters.
4.When in doubt for whatever reason (instinct?)
GET OUT.
5. Avoid overtrading.
6. When trading profitably, get AGGRESSIVE. (We all
have streaks!)
7. Never use more than 50% of your equity at one time
and, depending on the size of your account, make certain
that no SINGLE trade uses more than X% of your equity. (I
use 4%.)
8. Never add to a losing position. PERIOD.
9. Forget your EGO because the market is ALWAYS
right PERIOD.
10. Have patience in winning trades and give them time
to unfold.
11. Determine in advance what your TIME parameters
are for a trade, as this will impact both strategy as well as
predetermined RISK parameters.
12. Money management is at least as important as trade
selection and can be MORE important.
13. Trade multiple markets but not more than SEVEN
at a time.


P.S. These are my friends rules which I had been following before I met him a few years ago. These were rules that were published in TIF magazine. I endorse these RULES 100%
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  • #857
  • Aug 19, 2008 2:07pm Aug 19, 2008 2:07pm
Quoting Warren Forex
For Those Who Have Not Seen This !

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif Fred's Rules !!!
These are rules of trading done by my friend Fred, a commodity trader. The rules were published in a futures trading magazine called "Trends In Futures"

These rules should be followed as they stand the test of time !!!



Fred’s Rules

FINALLY...
I would like to share with you My personal parameters for
successful commodity trading, provided by FS, a
TIF subscriber. I think these are great and they mirror many of
my personal trading rules. Serious traders, consider this a
keeper. Here it is in Freds words:
With regard to my rules, most of them have been around
a lot longer than me and although well-known on the logic
level, are sometimes difficult to implement/execute.
Personally, I think the most important rule is the first one
since all the others are essentially predicated on it. Keep up
the good work with TIF!
1. NEVER trade with funds you cannot afford to lose
the stress will negatively impact your judgment.
2. NEVER put on a trade without a SIMULTANEOUS
stop loss. Period. This is seminal.
3. NEVER change a stop loss except to move it up/down
as a position moves in your favor. Otherwise just let the stop
loss take you out of the position within predetermined
parameters.
4.When in doubt for whatever reason (instinct?)
GET OUT.
5. Avoid overtrading.
6. When trading profitably, get AGGRESSIVE. (We all
have streaks!)
7. Never use more than 50% of your equity at one time
and, depending on the size of your account, make certain
that no SINGLE trade uses more than X% of your equity. (I
use 4%.)
8. Never add to a losing position. PERIOD.
9. Forget your EGO because the market is ALWAYS
right PERIOD.
10. Have patience in winning trades and give them time
to unfold.
11. Determine in advance what your TIME parameters
are for a trade, as this will impact both strategy as well as
predetermined RISK parameters.
12. Money management is at least as important as trade
selection and can be MORE important.
13. Trade multiple markets but not more than SEVEN
at a time.


P.S. These are my friends rules which I had been following before I met him a few years ago. These were rules that were published in TIF magazine. I endorse these RULES 100%
Most of this is total and utter ....

Missing very important, if not the most important rule

14. Always trade with the trend, and when the trend reverses get out.

Bruce thats why you aren't doing so well with your demo accounts.

Two percent Rules.

1. Determine a strategy with at least an 80 % plus success ratio, which generates an average minimum of 50 % per month, over one year at least.

2. Discipline your self, mentally and physically to only play your strategy and also absorb the pain of losing.

3. Be extremely patient, and wait for the right set up for your strategy, never break your own rules.

4. If you want to be a winner in Business, focus only on that.

5. Forget about demo platforms..... Learn the hard way.
  • #858
  • Aug 21, 2008 4:22am Aug 21, 2008 4:22am
Quoting Two percent
Most of this is total and utter ....

Missing very important, if not the most important rule

14. Always trade with the trend, and when the trend reverses get out.

Bruce thats why you aren't doing so well with your demo accounts.

Two percent Rules.

1. Determine a strategy with at least an 80 % plus success ratio, which generates an average minimum of 50 % per month, over one year at least.

2. Discipline your self, mentally and physically to only play your strategy and also absorb the pain of losing.

3. Be extremely patient, and wait for the right set up for your strategy, never break your own rules.

4. If you want to be a winner in Business, focus only on that.

5. Forget about demo platforms..... Learn the hard way.
You are right!
Only the last sentence isn't correct...
You can learn mutch more on a demo than with your own money.
If you are under the pressure of loosing everything you'll most probablly make stupid mistakes.
It's better to test and test all kinds of strategy till you think you are ready to make it on a live account.
  • #859
  • Aug 23, 2008 8:10am Aug 23, 2008 8:10am
This is my Home Thread and I intend to start posting here again. If you have nothing to say that is meant to be helpful please do not post here.

You do not have to agree but try hard to add to the knowledge here.

Now on to positive things.

Keeping with the Title of the Thread "Knowledge Is Power" here is what I just posted on the EUR/USD Thread !!!
#23065
Aug 23, 2008 8:51am (7 min ago)
Warren Forex
Warrenforex
Member Since Sep 2006
Posts: 1,742


Just My Opinion Why !
Quote:
Originally Posted by scyang
Not only do they change their positions, they also have conflicting opinions on the same page, depending on which analyst wrote which piece. For example, they have a piece that says USDCAD is set to go higher, and at the same time, another says that cable is about to rebound. You know USDCAD and GBPUSD cannot both go up at the same time.

In fact I would state that it is closer to a fact of life rather than an opinion.

Most of these sources use technical analysis and faulty fundamental analysis.

Technical analysis is nothing more than the EXACT Human Pyschology at the moment. It cannot and will not PREDICT the Future. Yes it can show a Trend BUT that Trend whatever time frame will change if a NEW Fundamental fact comes out that CHANGES the present PERCEPTION from a false one to the real one.

Look at the Video on FTP attached to my signature for a BETTER explanation than I am capable of.

As long as 1 + 1 = 2 THIS IS THE FACT ... Not An Opinion !

That is why I see technical calls sometimes changed 3 times in one day.

The Fundamental Facts are ALWAYS SPUN so unless you understand the TRUTH They and You are LOST IN SPACE !!!

I have posted this link perhaps hundreds of times and I hope some have actually gone there to read the information on a daily basis at the end of the day in order to distinguish between SPIN and the TRUE facts.

Garbage In is Garbage Out !!!

PLEASE Do yourself a BIG Service and check out the days news and added commentary including charts from the MOST informative site on the Internet and it is FREE !!!

One More Time For All To Try ...

WWW.JSMINESET.COM

I will post a Snippet here in a few minutes of one of the better posts of Friday for those TOO STUBBORN to listen to me since they probably need no help because they constantly WIN at FX using their proven method of FX success !

From Mr Jim Sinclair ...

PLEASE READ AND UNDERSTAND IT !!! Thank You For You (SMILE)


http://www.jsmineset.com/spacer.gif








Posted On: Friday, August 22, 2008, 2:12:00 PM EST
http://www.jsmineset.com/spacer.gif
5 Questions For Ben Bernanke
http://www.jsmineset.com/spacer.gif
Author: Jim Sinclair
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Dear CIGAs,
Greg Hunter, always the gentleman, presents the following.
5 Questions for Ben Bernanke
By Greg Hunter
In April of this year former Fed Chief Paul Volcker described the problems facing the economy as “The mother of all crises.” That was a critical and amazing statement. Not just because of the implications of what was said but more importantly by who said it. It almost seemed over the top at the time but now every day everyone from Wall Street to Main Street is wondering just how bad the economy will get and when it will bottom. It seems every week there is a new and even bigger crisis. This week the GSE’s Fannie and Freddie are being talked about in terms of when, not if they will be taken over by the government. This is big, folks, because these two GSE’s hold half the mortgages in America… a staggering amount of more than 5 trillion dollars. The cost of the bailout according to the Congressional Budget Office is anywhere from 0 to 100 billion dollars. Wow!!! What a spread in price! That estimate leads me to believe that the CBO just does not really have a handle on the answer.
In another crisis, last week the Attorney General of New York and others announced the beginning of settlements to force almost all the big financial institutions to buy back hundreds of billions in “Auction Rate” securities. These “securities” were supposed to be as safe and liquid as a money market account but as NY AG Andrew Cuomo has said, they were anything but safe and liquid. Cuomo has fined the biggest players in the brokerage and banking business hundreds of millions of dollars in penalties. In some cases State AG Cuomo alleged outright fraud. These folks are lucky no one is going to jail over this problem.
And let’s not forget the reoccurring nightmare of the continuous bank and brokerage write offs and losses due to the subprime crisis. (AKA the over the counter derivative or securitized debt) This kind of securitized debt is unprecedented in history. The total amount ranges from 500 to 1000 trillion. During the last decade almost every debt was packaged in to a bond or security and sold. The masters on Wall Street “securitized” everything it could get their hands on, subprime to prime mortgages, car loans, student loans and credit card debt just to name a few. This kind of debt was supposed to be a financial innovation and according to Alan Greenspan and others needed no regulation. This means there are no standards and no guarantees and plenty of other not so nice characteristics of this kind of “security”. These “securities” in most cases were sold as triple A rated or equal to a U.S. Treasury and that means “riskless”. So far those “riskless” mortgage backed securities and others have caused an estimated 500 billion in losses for the banks and brokerages. According to Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics at New York University, the tab for this credit crisis will cost the Banks and brokerages at least 1 trillion dollars and as much as 2 trillion dollars before it is over. Maybe that’s why former Chief of Economics at the International Monetary Fund and Harvard Professor Kenneth Rogoff predicted this week that “We’re not just going to see mid-sized banks go under in the next few months ... “We’re going to see a whopper ... one of the big investment banks or big banks.” Given this back drop it is no wonder Treasury Secretary Paulson and Fed Chief Bernanke are floating ideas about ways to let even large and systemically important institutions go bankrupt if they are insolvent. So my 5 questions to Ben Bernanke are as follows:

  1. If the housing market continues to sink in the next few years could it cost more than 100 billion dollars to bailout Fannie and Freddie?
  2. What do you think the bailout of Fannie and Freddie means to the balance sheet and credit rating of the United States of America?
  3. Given the huge loses the banks and brokerages still face should there be regulation in the securitized debt market?
  4. Should the rating agencies that gave triple A ratings to worthless debt be investigated?
  5. What are the criteria you will use to let a systemically important institution fail? (In other words which companies will you let fail and which will you bailout?)

To Ben Bernanke’s credit he did not cause these problems. He walked in to a mess largely caused by his predecessor. Unfortunately, Bernanke is left to deal with this “Mother of all crises”.




Bruce
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One Of My Favorite Video's on FX Trading !!!
http://broadcast.ino.com/education/t...eboard_6/?blog
Last edited by Warren Forex, Aug 23, 2008 8:58am (1 min ago) 8:58am Reason: Here It Is As Promised From Mr Jim Sinclair

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  • Aug 23, 2008 8:20am Aug 23, 2008 8:20am
http://www.tradingeducation.com/weeklycurrency.htm


Bruce
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