Is This My Holy Grail EA :D

Quoting auto9817

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Hi ya

I am trying to calculate the enough account balance to use 100 tp 40 system in micro account with starting lot of 0.01.

I have done some calc below.


Sample calculation 1
Currency =GBPUSD
Assume 1st buy price =1.9876
Start lot size =0.01
Multiple factor = 1.5
worst case price( Level 7 -150 point) =1.9486


Total Loss =684

Level-------Price---- Lot size---- Loss in dollar
Level 1---------1.98760 --------0.01-------------------- 39
Level 2---------1.98360 --------0.015 -------------------52.3
Level 3----------1.97960-------- 0.023------------------ 69.7
Level 4-----------1.97560------- 0.034------------------ 91.1
Level 5-----------1.97160-------- 0.051---------------116.4
Level 6-----------1.96760--------- 0.076--------------- 144.3
Level 7-----------1.96360 ----------0.114--------------- 170.9




In worst case scenario (try to be bit conseervative), the price further drop 150 points from level 7 and retrace back for level 7 take profit (i.e up to 1.9736)

and I tried subtract worst case price from buy price in each level!!

I have reached the conclusion to have at least 1000 US dollar for 100 tp 40 EA system to go with starting lot of 0.01 to be safe from wiping out your account .

I am Wondering if I have any mistakes in my cals.
Obviously I do not want to wipe off my account by keeping too small money on account!!


thanks guys in advance and also this will be useful fact for other newbie like me.


auto9817

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Quoting fotoposter1

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Hi Bob:

I want ask you how you can trade many pairs every day, because not allways you have the trigguer that you mention in you system. There are days that the MACD or yellow line is in the midle of the chart not over nivel 80 o under nivel 20 and this is frecuently in most of the pairs. What do you do? wait until get the nivel 80 or 20 or enter looking the direction of the trend in 4h ?

I Enclose a chart with the sample.

If you open the chart begining the day and you find that this is the stoch and MACD what you do? Dont trade this day in this pair? and find the triguer in another pair?

Thanks

Ricardo

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Quoting bubo

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Hello Nanningbob,

Thank you for your persistence and for sharing your progress with us. Wonderful stuff!

I am doing my best reading through the thread. There is one question I am still uncertain about.

Is there a more formal way of recognizing when a death trade is building? By definition, you recognize a death trade when it has wiped out your account, but that is a little late.

Are you using more formalized criteria for early warning signs when you decide to eliminate the trade? I read a deviation of 300-400 pips within a day. Or will you automatically eliminate death trades at the end of the day, so you won't have to worry about them too much anymore during the day?

I would appreciate if you could point me to a post or explain what criteria you use. Thank you again for sharing your great ideas!

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Quoting PistolDave

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My first report from testing the system following the rules outlined in Post #652, Page 44.

1. The rules of this test are very specific and do not allow for any manual intervention. To understand what I am testing, please read that post carefully.
2. I will edit this post until the test is finished with updated results.
3. Test started 00:00 GMT Aug 20 2008.
4. The results shown are the gains/losses at for each account at 17:00 GMT each day, which is the latest time all postions are closed and EA is restarted for the next day's trading period.
5. I will not be modifying the rules until this test is over. Any changes will be noted here.

Results Week #1:

Date Acct#1 Acct#2 Acct#3

Aug 20: -$9.75 -$34.99 -$51.74
Aug 21: -$82.54 -$433.23 -$25.74
Aug 22: -600.21 -271.11 -$512.32

All rules have been followed properly each day.

______________________________________

Changes to post:

______________________________________

Note: No matter what the end result is, this test will not show that this is a good system, bad system, or that you can or cannot profit from it...

... because the time when the positions are entered/exited is important to the profitability to this system, IMHO.

If you do things differently, you could have dramatically different results.

Determining when and how to do that effectively would seem to be the key to this system. That's what I am trying to learn.

This test is simply to try to determine whether this one specific method of opening/closing all trades at these specific times without manual intervention is going to be profitable or not.

However, this will be exact, specific data that can be used to make an informed decision without guesswork. If we can learn to use this system more effectively it will be worth it.

I hope nanningbob is not offended by me posting my results here.

PD

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Quoting nanningbob

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The whole purpose of this thread is to recognize the death trade before it wipes out your account. I define the death trade is any trade that goes beyond the range of the EA you are using. If you use a 40 step reentrance and go 8 levels deep, when price goes beyond the last entrance (at the 320 pip in the hole from the first entrance) You are in a potential death trade. You then begin looking for a way out of the trade that is the least expensive to your account. My philosophy is you will always face a potential death trade at some point of trading. Recognizing it, taking a loss and going on is the only way to trade with a martingale system. You can never avoid the death trade, you have to face it and deal with it. Once you are successful at dealing with it, you can trade martingale systems.

The GBP/USD made a move that stretched the EA to its limit. Most of my systems show it at level 6,7 or 8. For those that closed down Friday and took the loss, live to trade for another day. On my demos, even closing down that trade Friday, I still made a profit for the week. I have some demos where I am keeping the trade over the weekend. This will be the perfect lesson on why you should not keep a trade over the weekend. If the GBP/USD now gaps over the weekend, you will be looking at a huge loss instead of a manageable one.

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Quoting bubo

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Thank you! I am beginning to understand when to eliminate a death trade.
I guess your GBP/USD example of today shows it can occur within a day and closing all positions daily does not always help.

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Quoting nanningbob

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... Look for the retracement during the JPY session and see if you can minimize the damage or even turn a small profit. What you are looking for is a 30-60 pip retracement and this will really cut your loss to a minimum. Live lessons not past charts of how you should have done it. Now you can practice it live.

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Quoting nanningbob

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The GBP/USD is a potential death trade, but it is not there yet. I still have about 100 pips to play with. For those who still have this trade going Monday, it will be a perfect day to practice getting out with the least amount of damage. Look for the retracement during the JPY session and see if you can minimize the damage or even turn a small profit. What you are looking for is a 30-60 pip retracement and this will really cut your loss to a minimum. Live lessons not past charts of how you should have done it. Now you can practice it live.

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Quoting PistolDave

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That's what I was thinking when I said the time when you enter/exit is critical to the profit or loss.

For example, you could have a position go against you for 5 or 6 levels and be sitting on a large potential loss. Close the position at that point and you just realized the loss. Wait until it retraces some and it's a profit. Timing is the thing that makes the difference.

Obviously, you can make money in these situations:
1) Price on a pair moves continously in the direction you enter; the EA regularly enters a position, takes profit, enters, TP, over and over.
2) Price moves against your position 8 levels or less and retraces enough to get you out at a profit -- and then you close out all the positions on that pair at that time.
3) Price moves against your position, the EA opens a position ,then price continues on in your direction enough so the TP is hit and there is a profit.

You lose money when:
1) Price continuously goes against your position 8 levels and you have to close all positions on that pair at a large loss to avoid death trade.
2) Price moves against your position on a pair and then retraces to a point when closing it would have been profitable, but you are unable to close the position (because you aren't available, for instance) and then it continues on to become unprofitable again.

Becoming aware of this makes me think that you should be concerned mainly with managing each individual pair -- in it's current state of progress of the trade it happens to be in at the time.

For instance, even if you are working with 15 or 20 different pairs each one could be in a different condition (number of levels against it, retracement, with or against the trend of that pair, etc.) so each one would have to be considered individually at all times instead of blindly opening and closing all trades as a group.

Since we can't predict price direction, all we can control is how we manage our trades. This will ultimately determine whether this method is profitable or not for the individual trader. Again, experience and diligence would seem to come into play to know when to exit. In fact, the way I see it now, entry is practically irrelevent -- but exit is everything.

I hope this makes sense to someone. Maybe it sounds like I am just rambling on, I don't know.

Bob, am I on the right track?

PD

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Quoting auto9817

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Thanks bob.

I was in my second day of testing with your 100 tp 40 system and I was quite supried to see EA open level 7 buy order and I am in death trade area or (near death trade area) right now. Thanks for your advice!!

I got feeling that it will retrace enough for 100 take profit but can't say for sure.. Let's see what happen.

auto9817

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Quoting Romano

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Hi Bob
Public results of my demo.
The first, running from two weeks, as you know, not allow me to save the file and I do not know why.
Then write the data here:
Departure from 9000.00 dollars, the first operation of 23.03 hours 10-08-2008, last Friday 22-08-2008 hours 17.04.
Balance 10780.23 - equivalent 10662.44 - float -117.79
Work on couples: EUR-USD/USD-CHF/GBP-USD/USD-JPY/GBP-JPY
I can not see the maxDD.
The second demo instead allowed me to save the report that enclosed here.
This second demo is, quite deliberately, "extreme".
Active trades has 46 pairs and I did the demo on all 46, including gold and silver.
The results of the first week are attached.
I see that you are online at this time.
You ask me know what couples have to activate the two new demo with two EA you done for me.
See my post No 680 page 46.
Thank you
Romano

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