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Joined Jun 2008
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Status: Safe swings g/y g/u u/y
|222 Posts
it is a breakout below the 204.5 floor, something news related.
Interest rate futures probably. boe might drop intest rates.
Well this is good. the prices climbing back to 204 levels. this
pattern should range between 204 and 200 in the days to come.
entered a trade at 203.2 short with a stop loss placed around 204.5
hoping to atleast make 200 pips if the rollover doesn't eat up profits.
Hi Sree, I don't know how far hoping and wishing gets us in this game. Interesting analysis. How did you come up with your target, and what time/day did you place your trade?
I've been following your journal for a while trying to learn a right way to trade, all thanks to your posts.
I want to attach this pic about gbp/jpy drop of this morning (CET), and about the trade I missed, maybe comparing my analysis with yours and see if I was right or it was only my lucky guess
H1 graph. Great opportunity for a sell @ 204.5 where fib 50%, ceiling bollinger, stochastic pointing down to 50 and neckline before yesterday's drop.
It was 100 pips opportunity, maybe 150/200, pointing down to bollinger's bottom or S1 (making a double down) Who knows? What's sure it was 100 pips missed. At least.
Hi Metcalfe. I don't use fibs much, so I'm not the expert to be able to critique (but can see that price did come off important 50.0 fib). My preference for support and resistance are pivot points. What time frame are you showing? Looks like price came off a double top or a recent ceiling. Anyway, I think your analysis (at the the time of move?) is spot on.
I miss trades too, like yesterday's session. Duck out for a minute and price has dropped 100+pips when I return. Can't get 'em all, darn it.
Hindsight is 20/20 of course. But at the time of taking this trade (see following post for charts, summary) I had no idea price would drop over 100 pips this session. It's Thursday nightm after all, end of the trading week. I figured traders disappeared for the week. So I was apprehensive about taking a trade, nearly bailed out of positions a few times on the initial chop before price decided to head down, and then the lightning fast spike up at GBP news (1:30am, PDT). After that price began to fall convincingly. Traders were coming out of the woodwork and jumping on board. I still thought price could reverse any time and take my trade out at breakeven entry. When the ride was over just before 2:00 am (PDT), two million traders, hedge funds, computer programs instantly disappeared back into the woodwork. It serves to show, there must be a lot of players always waiting on the sidelines for just the right setup. Bang, 100+pips: out, no hanging around.
Hi Metcalf. I don't use fibs much, so I'm not the expert to be able to critique. My preference for support and resistance are pivot points. What time frame are you showing? Looks like price came off a double top.
I miss trades too, like yesterday's session. Duck out for a minute and price has dropped 100+pips when I return. Can't get 'em all, darn it.
Cheers
Ignored
Graph is H1.
I'm not fan of fibs very much either, but sometimes it helps me to confirm a signal or see where it can stop or retrace. Now stalling @ 23.6 after touching bollinger floor
Yesterday's drop was too early for me, but today I have no excuses. Angry because I did not take it, but with good analysis there will be other trades.
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Joined Jun 2008
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Status: Safe swings g/y g/u u/y
|222 Posts
the last trade stopped out. the next trade placed around 204.26 - short is in
the money. the ceiling around 204.5 is holding up and looks like a range
between 204 and 200 as the breakout should last. this time stops at 205.5
limit at 200.5. so it is a long term trade with 400pips potential.
This strategy is longer term but with more profit potential and 100 to 125 pips loss risk to the downside. i am still debating to take smaller profits
when it hits the median between 204 and 200 - around 202. (would have
got me 200pips thursday night).
Pivot point trading is stressful and returns are in the order of 100 pips which tightens up stops(or mental stops) to get a good risk to rewards ratio while this method seems promising. need to
try it out for a few months, fine tune my profit limits and feel for trends.
you are right Greg, regarding hoping doesn't get anywhere but this method
of entry seems pretty accurate considering that the 204.26 is
pretty much a pivot point as the buyers have lost steam around 204.6 and
sellers are bring g/y back (turning it around) into the range below 204.
what is missing is a reasoable profit pt.
With pivot around 204.5 and low
and high 203.5,205.5 (100pips away), the std pivot S1,S2,S3,S4 are 203.5,202.5,200.5 and 198.5. That gives me my profit pt at S3 - 200.5.
~400pip gain. R1 is at 205.5 which neatly ties in with my stop loss pt and
hence the proof.
it may take a few days to a week to get to S3 but that is what this
trading style is about.
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Joined Jun 2008
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Status: Safe swings g/y g/u u/y
|222 Posts
Got in 204.26 and waited for stop out at 200.5 - S3. It almost got there
right before I gave in and exited around 201.3. 300pip
or alnmost. The technique is in using the ATR - it indicates average movement
and when i use it to make up the supports and resistances, it lines up.
w/ ATR of 200 for g/y that would make a calc from pivot up 1/2 ATR (100pips) and down 1/2 ATR (100 pips) to get R1, S1, then use the
std support resistance calculator to calculate the other S and Rs.
stops can be financial - 4% capital or technical R1 (for shorts) or S1 (for longs)
Hi Sree, Well, I really hope the ATR strategy works for you. The bottom line of course is to get to the point where we are hitting the ball consistently, i.e. consistently catching a few pips each session (ideally). To that end, hat's off, "cheers!" Greg
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Joined Jun 2008
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Status: Safe swings g/y g/u u/y
|222 Posts
450pip gain! but then had lost it all!
helped to fine tune my strategy.
Entered short at 194.95 and exited at 190.4 - ~ 450pips, the biggest
gain made so far. stopped out 3 times before that as the
stops were 150pips away and pretty much evens out all gain..
ATR strategy is working but entries were too optimistic. Need
correction and do a worst case entry using worst case ceiling and
having stops places 1/2 ATR on top of that. Then calculate my entries
based on my stops (not the other way around,
it never made any sense to pippoint entry point withing ceilings/floors as
they are ranges). Since my
financial stops are 150pips (the max hit i am willing to take taking into
account my leverage is around 4%, that would make my losses not more
than 6% - could run 3,4 losses in a row and still only lose a quarter of
my balance-worst case), makes the entry @ 150pip below my stop pt.
So for Sunday, the ceiling ranged b/w 192.5 and 194.5. Given 194.5
worst case, and ATR close to 300pips, 194.5+ATR/2 = 194.5+1.5=196
would be the stop loss pt.
Now with max fin loss 150pips, makes my
entry 196-150pips = 194.5 (short ofcource)
Then to calc the exit limits, again using ATR,
it would be 195.5 (pivot pt) - ATR/2 = 194 --> S1,
195.5 - 2*(ATR/2) = 192.5 --> S2
195.5 - 3*(ATR/2) = 191 --> S3
195.5 - 4*(ATR/2) = 189.5 -->S4
Using ATR(5) for all calc above. Usually exit aroung S3, the ATR was more
like 340pips(trying to be exact here;-)and that stretched the supports a bit to 190.4 for S3 (& that is were that final exit came from)!
