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No Estimates for NZD data?

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 13, 2007 12:07am Feb 13, 2007 12:07am
There are 2 NZD news this week with no estimates?

Earlier we had Quarterly PPI which came out very NZD negative. Wednesday, its Retail Sales; unfortunately, with no estimates.

I wonder how it will turn out?
  • #2
  • Feb 13, 2007 1:13am Feb 13, 2007 1:13am
hello BK.

I think if there's no estimate or consensus, the previous number will be versus actual one, i mean the market will act about these 2 number, i am only guessing i am not sure...
  • #3
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:20am Feb 14, 2007 10:20am
BK , did you get any new info regarding this news?
  • #4
  • Feb 14, 2007 10:47am Feb 14, 2007 10:47am
Retail Sales are forecasted to be quite strong. Bloomberg posted a table of forecasts in an article.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...efer=australia


Quote
The following is a table of forecasts for the change in retail sales in December after adjusting to remove seasonal variations, and for fourth-quarter sales excluding inflation.

Dec. 4th-Qtr
============================================
Median 0.7% 1.3%
High 1.3% 2.2%
Low 0.5% 0.9%
No. of Replies 11 11
============================================
ANZ Banking Group 0.7% 1.6%
ASB Bank 0.5% 1.1%
Bank of New Zealand 0.8% 2.2%
Barclays 0.6% 1.3%
Citigroup 0.5% 0.9%
Deutsche Bank 0.9% 1.7%
First NZ 0.8% 1.8%
Goldman Sachs JBWere 1.1% 1.3%
Macquarie 0.7% 1.0%
TD 0.7% 1.1%
Westpac 1.3% 2.1%
=============================================
I am personally still undecided if I want to trade it, kiwi can be quite evil. If retail sales are really good, it will almost be a forsure hike in march.

-MaTt
  • #5
  • Edited 1:35pm Feb 14, 2007 1:10pm | Edited 1:35pm
Previous months were negative for NZD with below 0.0% increase in Retail Sales. Today, the number is for December - does NZlanders celebrate christmas just the same way as in US/Europe?

If so, then Retail Sales should pick up. After all, RS for Oct and Nov were very low, it does not need much to boost it upward.

HOWEVER, should the number come out dissapointingly low, it could sent NZD down. Problem is, what number is considered low? Bloomberg just published estimates from a few financial houses; will traders use this as gauge?

Times like this, straddling is easier to play and let the big boys push the prices.

BTW. The KIWI is hitting the 0.700 once again as heavy model funds are seen buying the NZDUSD pair in the last 24 hours. NZD rate hike expectation is supporting the Kiwi due mainly to the increase in food prices and the infamouse NZDJPY carry trade (NZD 7.25% is the highest thus far)...

The C C & C Factor (from Bloomberg)
Quote
Credit Cards, Cars

Recent figures have shown more spending on credit cards and increased car sales, adding to evidence retail sales may have risen in December. Consumer confidence had its biggest gain in more than six years, according to a survey by Westpac Banking Corp. and McDermott Miller Ltd.

Credit card spending jumped 3.2 percent, according to central bank figures. New car registrations surged 24 percent from November, a government report showed.

Reminder: NZ Retail Sales comes out as Retail Sales and Retail Sales ex-auto; but traders trade the full Retail Sales figure including cars, food, fuel...
  • #6
  • Feb 14, 2007 2:27pm Feb 14, 2007 2:27pm
New Zealand does celebrate a Christmas, it is predominantly Christian (75%). It is also combined with there summer holidays. Also there biggest tourism time. So I could see retail sales skyrocketing.

I am going to straddle this news and decide what to do once I see the numbers and the reaction. Good retail sales would send kiwi up into the .7000s and make for a nice carry trade, due to almost a garenteed rate hike. If it produces some bad numbers, were going to see quite a violent move down. I just hope its not in the middle range which could throw a curve ball due to the lack of solid consensus. Lets hope the New Zealanders have been saving there money for Christmas time and its over 1%.

-MaTt
  • #7
  • Feb 14, 2007 2:31pm Feb 14, 2007 2:31pm
If you do trade the news, what pair? USD or AUS?
  • #8
  • Feb 14, 2007 2:35pm Feb 14, 2007 2:35pm
The estimate for today's announce is posted - it is 0.7% up from the previous period of -0.2%
  • #9
  • Feb 14, 2007 2:48pm Feb 14, 2007 2:48pm
Iam worried that the market has not already allowed for the move as the kiwi has been climbing for the last 24 hours....

Retail sales for December and the Jan sales would have been good but most of it would have been put on credit cards, remember we are one of the most indebit countries in the world.

Glenn
  • #10
  • Feb 14, 2007 3:29pm Feb 14, 2007 3:29pm
i will buy...
Sorry about my english...
  • #11
  • Feb 14, 2007 3:49pm Feb 14, 2007 3:49pm
retail sales nw .7%
but it doesn't move up !!!!!!!!! or even down
If you count on hope in any trade ……. Get out of it
  • #12
  • Feb 14, 2007 3:51pm Feb 14, 2007 3:51pm
Retail sales 0.7 % as expected. Almost every single piece of news for february came out with little or no deviation. Not good for us.
  • #13
  • Feb 14, 2007 4:01pm Feb 14, 2007 4:01pm
Quoting PipStar
Retail sales 0.7 % as expected. Almost every single piece of news for February came out with little or no deviation. Not good for us.
yea you're right, February was not good month, January was great...
  • #14
  • Feb 14, 2007 4:02pm Feb 14, 2007 4:02pm
Eco-no-miss

They were right for this..

And not much of crap movement were seen.
  • #15
  • Feb 14, 2007 4:03pm Feb 14, 2007 4:03pm
What do you think where kiwi will go? Drop ?
  • #16
  • Feb 14, 2007 4:08pm Feb 14, 2007 4:08pm
well we do have jpy GDP coming... hope to see some pips from this one...
  • #17
  • Feb 14, 2007 4:32pm Feb 14, 2007 4:32pm
Quoting mohsen57
well we do have jpy GDP coming... hope to see some pips from this one...
I have been HOPING since last week - though I got one from CAD but it was just a bait. I have been in a loosing streak after NFP and had decided to lower my lot sizes but CAD news rekindled hope and decided to increase lot size again.

I have been telling myself "hope to see some pips" every piece of news.

I guess these were all false hopes and the last trades I ended with big losses wiping out my profits for the 2007.

Bottom line: If you want to trade JPY GDP, trade half of what you usually do and maintain doing so until you have fully recovered the losses. Dont expect every piece of news are going to give you pips; expect the other side as well.
  • #18
  • Feb 14, 2007 5:24pm Feb 14, 2007 5:24pm
thank you bk, appreciate you comment, i know what you mean, and i agree with you, i like guys from Philippine, i used to have a friend from there before, he came Iran to work in a big oil company, he was very good man, nice and polite, nice to have you here...
  • #19
  • Feb 14, 2007 5:44pm Feb 14, 2007 5:44pm
Well, kiwi news sucked, deleted entries. Common yen news!

-MaTt
  • #20
  • Feb 14, 2007 5:52pm Feb 14, 2007 5:52pm
I was setting up my system when data came out!

Just my stupid luck..
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