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I see oil reaching 100 USD?!

  • #261
  • Jul 29, 2008 10:01am Jul 29, 2008 10:01am
Quoting merlin


yeah im starting to smell a short opportunity here. two of my best fundies trades in the past couple years have been shorting this beast, and the chart is looking about the same as it does now. remember those trades, narafa? with that said, i wouldnt even consider shorting this long term, it would be more like a robbery where im in and out with the quickness LOL. the fundamentals are with the bulls right now, demand is simply growing faster than supply. economics always win at the end of the day
I expect 1 a double top/head/shoulder formation before this one settles below $100
100% of traders are losers. Just that some win more than they lose!
  • #262
  • Aug 19, 2008 5:18pm Aug 19, 2008 5:18pm
wish i could say ive been profiting from this oil nose dive, but unfortunately i havent been paying much attention to the markets lately.

so whats going on? is this opec shorting, global tensions easing, a bubble popping, or just a short term correct? those that know me know my choice
Relax and be happy.
  • #263
  • Aug 20, 2008 11:14pm Aug 20, 2008 11:14pm
Weekly report comes out with "9.3 million barrel increase in crude stocks" and price drops, firms into support and moves back up, hmmmmm.

Though I am thinking if it doesn't gain further traction on Thursday support will break.
  • #264
  • Aug 20, 2008 11:51pm Aug 20, 2008 11:51pm
Quoting merlin
wish i could say ive been profiting from this oil nose dive, but unfortunately i havent been paying much attention to the markets lately.

so whats going on? is this opec shorting, global tensions easing, a bubble popping, or just a short term correct? those that know me know my choice
I don't really "know" anybody here, but aren't you a bubble popping kind of guy?

I'm a "short correction" person myself for this market, though I don't trade oil. The reason is that according to the photovoltaics experts (we get professors come over to talk about the state of the art because it's a research center) the solar powered tech won't reach 40% efficiency in another 40 years or so. It's basically unusable right now at a large scale. Germany, which is leading in energy source development, is actually swtiching FROM nuclear and to "renewable" sources within 20 years - which is kind of long term, and people are calling them crazy. This is a shock for nuclear-loving folk like myself, and I'm sure FF nuclear engineers had a thing or two to tell the german govmint about fear mongering, but I digress.

In short, why would oil prices continue to fall for more than a month or two? Bubbles don't exist in inelastic markets, I thought.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #265
  • Aug 24, 2008 11:43am Aug 24, 2008 11:43am
NEW YORK POST

OIL'S FUTURE PRICE IS REALLY DEPENDENT ON WHO YOU ASK

By John Aidan Byrne, Post Wires

August 24, 2008 --

Drivers looking for insight into how much they'll be paying at the pump this winter shouldn't look to Wall Street for any guidance - oil analysts on the Street don't seem to have a clue.

Take the gaping difference between the estimates of oil analysts at two firms - Goldman Sachs and Hong Kong-based GaveKal Research.

Goldman is predicting oil, which settled at $114.63 a barrel on Friday, will not continue its easing pattern but do an about-face and rise 30 percent by Dec. 31 to $149 on growing demand in emerging markets. GaveKal, looking at the same data, predicts oil will fall 19 percent to between $85 a barrel and $100 a barrel as production remains high.

Oil has fallen 22 percent from its July peak as US demand has slowed and production has not slowed. But no two analysts on the Street seem to be able to agree on what lies down the road.

For example:

* On China' demand for oil: Goldman, in a recent report, writes that China shows no sign of curbing consumption, noting that oil demand has increased 9.5 percent in the year to July. GaveKal reports that with Olympic preparations behind them, China has stopped importing diesel.

* On oil production: Goldman sees disruptions in supply, including Caspian production, which is down 550,000 barrels a day, because of a damaged rail link in Georgia. Meanwhile, GaveKal reports Saudi Arabia is producing at its highest rate in 26 years.

* On the affect of the US dollar on oil prices: The impact of the US dollar on oil is limited, reports Goldman. Oh yeah? "Weakening US dollar prompted 'profit-taking' in greenbacks and crude," GaveKal said in a recent report.

A falling dollar encourages selling from investors who bought crude oil and other commodities as a hedge against inflation and weakness in the US currency.

The sudden and rapid run-up in price on Aug. 21 and sudden about-face on Aug. 22 had many traders shaking their heads.

"This is extreme volatility," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy, Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Ill. "The fact that we erased all of Thursday's gains so fast suggests that we're still in a bear market. There's just not much demand out there."

At the pump, a gallon of regular fell another penny overnight to a new national average of $3.692, according to auto club AAA, the Oil Price Information Service and Wright Express. Prices had peaked at $4.114 a gallon on July 17, but have come down as high-energy costs force Americans to cut back on their driving.
  • #266
  • Aug 25, 2008 6:18am Aug 25, 2008 6:18am
Quoting Plutonite
I don't really "know" anybody here, but aren't you a bubble popping kind of guy?

I'm a "short correction" person myself for this market, though I don't trade oil. The reason is that according to the photovoltaics experts (we get professors come over to talk about the state of the art because it's a research center) the solar powered tech won't reach 40% efficiency in another 40 years or so. It's basically unusable right now at a large scale. Germany, which is leading in energy source development, is actually swtiching FROM nuclear and to "renewable" sources within 20 years - which is kind of long term, and people are calling them crazy. This is a shock for nuclear-loving folk like myself, and I'm sure FF nuclear engineers had a thing or two to tell the german govmint about fear mongering, but I digress.

In short, why would oil prices continue to fall for more than a month or two? Bubbles don't exist in inelastic markets, I thought.

Solar is very usable and is not "in the future" it is very much today. On a large scale yes it's very inefficient but, and its a big butt, small wind and solar combined are creating energy independent houses all over the world, and is only becoming more and more popular as homeowners look for ways to save money, and the latest figure from a real estate agency quoted that every dollar you save adds $20 to the value of your house. And with many states giving tax rebates to people who are adding solar panels and small wind turbines it is becoming a very affordable option. So as the popularity increases the load on the "grid" decreases. Also adding to the decreasing demand from the grid are the new green houses, office buildings, industrial centers etc. etc. My friend is an architect and every single project he has now or has been on in the last five years has had an emphasis on being as energy efficient as possible. And whats funny is they are using old technology to create these new green homes. So my point is the tides are changing where new developments become energy independent, existing infrastructure rebuilds itself (renewables), and there will be less demand on the centralized grid. Solar and wind play a huge part in this as well as the small percentage of houses that actually sell energy back to the grid instead of taking from the grid.
Just Trade It
  • #267
  • Aug 25, 2008 7:22am Aug 25, 2008 7:22am
I would think energy efficiency is contributing more, right now, than Solar or Wind. I know more people here in Florida that have high-energy efficiency AC units, new appliances (fridges, micro and convection ovens, etc.) than have solar units on their roof. In the USA I think they still make up 1% or less.
  • #268
  • Aug 25, 2008 7:27am Aug 25, 2008 7:27am
Quoting SunTrader
I would think energy efficiency is contributing more, right now, than Solar or Wind. I know more people here in Florida that have high-energy efficiency AC units, new appliances (fridges, micro and convection ovens, etc.) than have solar units on their roof. In the USA I think they still make up 1% or less.
The percentage is still small, but it is growing hand over feet every year. (just look at some solar sales figures) Also I said throughout the world. Solar panels are going up everywhere in Europe, and small wind in the U.K since they only see the sun on vacation.
Just Trade It
  • #269
  • Sep 8, 2008 9:50pm Sep 8, 2008 9:50pm
From Futures magazine column:

Crude Bottom?
Extent of oil price decline depends mainly on Saudi Arabia’s implicit price floor. Crude oil prices on a nearest-futures basis have so far fallen by a total of $41.81 (-28.4%) from the record high of $147.27 posted in early July. The sell-off has been due to the sharp rally in the dollar, heavy technical long liquidation pressure, and importantly the hike in OPEC (ex-Iraq) production by 725,000 barrels per day (bpd) from April through July.
OPEC production (ex-Iraq) posted a record high of 30.315 million bpd in July and then fell back a bit to 30.265 million bpd in August. Saudi Arabia, with its 400,000 bpd production hike, accounted for the bulk of OPEC’s overall production hike in April-July as it attempted to halt the oil price rally.
Market participants are unanimously expecting OPEC at its upcoming quarterly meeting on Sept. 9 to leave its production quotas unchanged. OPEC members with a quota are already producing well above their production ceiling of 29.673 million bpd by 592,000 bpd, meaning there is little point in cutting their official target until they bring actual production back down to the ceiling.
OPEC members have discovered that the world economy can survive much higher oil prices than anyone ever thought possible. OPEC has therefore ratcheted up its unofficial target band accordingly. Iran and Venezuela want to defend oil prices at $100 per barrel. However, Saudi Arabia continues to be the main swing producer in OPEC, as it has for decades, which means that Saudi Arabia’s opinion on the floor for oil prices is the one that matters most.
There is much debate in the market about where oil prices may bottom out. There is no way of knowing for sure what Saudi Arabia’s desired price range might be for oil prices. Saudi Arabia probably does not want to be seen defending $100 oil with the global economy in trouble. Yet Saudi Arabia is already cutting production with oil near $110 to slow the decline in oil prices. Thus the market may be overly optimistic if it is hoping for oil prices to fall as low as $80. At that level, the OPEC hawks would be in full rebellion since they have now become accustomed to the huge revenues from $100+ oil.
  • #270
  • Sep 15, 2008 10:53am Sep 15, 2008 10:53am
Stuck between Gann Fan and previous support turn resistance:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #271
  • Sep 15, 2008 2:32pm Sep 15, 2008 2:32pm
first $100 dollar was a long call, then a short call, now its back to a long call

Oil markets
Just Trade It
  • #272
  • Sep 15, 2008 2:32pm Sep 15, 2008 2:32pm
Quoting SunTrader
Stuck between Gann Fan and previous support turn resistance:
Nice chart, me still looking for da 80's
Check Mate GAME OVER
  • #273
  • Sep 15, 2008 3:05pm Sep 15, 2008 3:05pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
first $100 dollar was a long call, then a short call, now its back to a long call

Oil markets
...
its just money
  • #274
  • Sep 15, 2008 3:19pm Sep 15, 2008 3:19pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
first $100 dollar was a long call, then a short call, now its back to a long call

Oil markets
Joke must of flown right over my head.
  • #275
  • Edited 10:55pm Sep 15, 2008 10:08pm | Edited 10:55pm
Like a hot knife through butter right now, support levels are cracking.

100 barrels of oil in the ground, 100 barrels of oil, if one of those barrels of oil should drop {short} - pick it up and then drop {short} some more.

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  • #276
  • Sep 22, 2008 1:30pm Sep 22, 2008 1:30pm
CNBC is calling oil $130 +$25 for the day, although is not showing in their charts..

WTH is going on?
  • #277
  • Sep 22, 2008 2:40pm Sep 22, 2008 2:40pm
Im not sure how OIL are ordered and delivered; and today is the expiration for October contract.

Does this mean that OIL deliveries for October placed no earlier than today will have to pay the Penalty price for the last minute rally?

Just curious.
  • #278
  • Sep 22, 2008 3:41pm Sep 22, 2008 3:41pm
Quoting BurgerKing
Im not sure how OIL are ordered and delivered; and today is the expiration for October contract.

Does this mean that OIL deliveries for October placed no earlier than today will have to pay the Penalty price for the last minute rally?

Just curious.
Looks like someone went short oil last week and got squeezed till their pips squeaked

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...dNU&refer=home
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The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan.
  • #279
  • Sep 22, 2008 3:53pm Sep 22, 2008 3:53pm
Quoting steve10%
Looks like someone went short oil last week and got squeezed till their pips squeaked

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...dNU&refer=home
Yup.. apparently this guy was staring at the huge candle.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?p...d=itmCSMZIuXuY
  • #280
  • Sep 22, 2008 3:59pm Sep 22, 2008 3:59pm
Quoting cesarnc
Yup.. apparently this guy was staring at the huge candle.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?p...d=itmCSMZIuXuY
Yea he looks like he has had better days
I hope he works on the ground floor
The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan.
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