We had a break out to a new high this morning to 1.9777 and a sharp and fast rejection of it. It broke the EMA at 1.9725. The retracement was small, < 38.6% before it moved to new lows. Entry was taken at 1.9723.
I am concerned with the small retracement even though price is now testing 1.9710. If the small retrace is too small to count this entire move short can be one wave and on to new highs. The retracement to come is the thing to watch and I won't make up my mind on the validity of this move until it retraces, fails and then breaks to new lows.
EDIT 1: Price retraced 38.2% from 1.9707 and moved to set new interim low at 1.9090 which is a promising sign that this move will continue. There is a bunch of US news in 1hr 15, CPI, Housing reports and Unemployment claims that we'll have to get through and if they are favorable to this move then a big push short is in the cards.
EDIT 2: 2.40pm Price broke to new interim low post news at 1.9634 in what looks to be an orderly manner. Currently going through a small retracement. Initial TP pushed through with ease so TP moved to 1.9531ish. This could be the start of a move to 1.8990 but its way too early to tell. Next target is a break of yesterdays low of 1.9589.
EDIT 3: 3.20pm Price has continued to retrace from the low and ihas broken though 38.2% retrace from the 1.9777 high and just hit 50%. Stops at breakeven so I'll need a sharp rejection of this long move soon and move to new lows to stay in.
EDIT 4: 3.27pm Price has broken EMA with a current high of 1.9717 so not only am I likely to be stopped out its got the potential to set up for a long trade. Lets see how it plays out.
EDIT 5: 3.34pm Stopped out at break even (again). Also not entering this trade long. I'm going to sit on the sidelines and get my trade strategy re take profits right. These large wins (+200, +300) have been more of a problem than I first thought as I've moved away from my trade strategy and not exiting at +50 as was my goal. Now I'm out 2 trades of +50 and missed another all because I was holding out for the big trade win. My next trade has to be to take profit at +50 no matter what (at least on 1 account). Continual wins are good for the trading mindset and mental attitude which is more important for long term success than any windfall trade.
I am concerned with the small retracement even though price is now testing 1.9710. If the small retrace is too small to count this entire move short can be one wave and on to new highs. The retracement to come is the thing to watch and I won't make up my mind on the validity of this move until it retraces, fails and then breaks to new lows.
EDIT 1: Price retraced 38.2% from 1.9707 and moved to set new interim low at 1.9090 which is a promising sign that this move will continue. There is a bunch of US news in 1hr 15, CPI, Housing reports and Unemployment claims that we'll have to get through and if they are favorable to this move then a big push short is in the cards.
EDIT 2: 2.40pm Price broke to new interim low post news at 1.9634 in what looks to be an orderly manner. Currently going through a small retracement. Initial TP pushed through with ease so TP moved to 1.9531ish. This could be the start of a move to 1.8990 but its way too early to tell. Next target is a break of yesterdays low of 1.9589.
EDIT 3: 3.20pm Price has continued to retrace from the low and ihas broken though 38.2% retrace from the 1.9777 high and just hit 50%. Stops at breakeven so I'll need a sharp rejection of this long move soon and move to new lows to stay in.
EDIT 4: 3.27pm Price has broken EMA with a current high of 1.9717 so not only am I likely to be stopped out its got the potential to set up for a long trade. Lets see how it plays out.
EDIT 5: 3.34pm Stopped out at break even (again). Also not entering this trade long. I'm going to sit on the sidelines and get my trade strategy re take profits right. These large wins (+200, +300) have been more of a problem than I first thought as I've moved away from my trade strategy and not exiting at +50 as was my goal. Now I'm out 2 trades of +50 and missed another all because I was holding out for the big trade win. My next trade has to be to take profit at +50 no matter what (at least on 1 account). Continual wins are good for the trading mindset and mental attitude which is more important for long term success than any windfall trade.