I have 9 losses in row. Best MM ? | Forex Factory

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I have 9 losses in row. Best MM ?

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 20, 2008 9:54am Aug 20, 2008 9:54am
Hi,

During my manual backtesting and paper trading I have found that I have as max 9 losses in row.

Which type of money management do you suggest ?

Thanks in advance....
  • #2
  • Aug 20, 2008 9:56am Aug 20, 2008 9:56am
Use like 1% of your acc in each trade depending on how much you have till you learn better and is able to achieve better results.Don't forget to adapt SL and TP if you want use to current market situation
  • #3
  • Aug 20, 2008 10:10am Aug 20, 2008 10:10am
Hi,

You can read : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=7439
  • #4
  • Aug 20, 2008 11:16am Aug 20, 2008 11:16am
That really depends on your risk appetite. Just because the maximum string of losses is nine in the past does not mean that there will not be a longer string in the future. Ten sigma events do happen, if the prospect of blowing your account fills you with dread, err on the side of caution and make sure you live to tell the tale when everyone else has blown up spectacularly. Everything that can happen, will happen, it is just a matter of time.

On the other hand, perhaps you are willing to take a lot of risk and are looking for a high growth rate, accepting that the improbable could spell the end of your account - then perhaps you could risk 5% of your account on each trade.
  • #5
  • Aug 20, 2008 12:11pm Aug 20, 2008 12:11pm
Thanks for all answers. Will try with the risk version and check if my heart fix it.
  • #6
  • Aug 20, 2008 12:52pm Aug 20, 2008 12:52pm
Since you are new and your system may not yet be profitable, (or rather you may not know how to trade it profitably). I would suggest no MM as an MM strategy requires a profitable system.
I suggest you simply adopt a 'survival strategy'. Risk no more than 1/2% or even 1/4% per trade until you have an idea what will happen in real time w/ your strategy and yourself. If profitable then pursue a MM strategy.

Quoting WarrBenj
Hi,

During my manual backtesting and paper trading I have found that I have as max 9 losses in row.

Which type of money management do you suggest ?

Thanks in advance....
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
  • #7
  • Aug 20, 2008 12:57pm Aug 20, 2008 12:57pm
Normally if I have 3 in a row I'd stop trading for a few days.
Take a report.
  • #8
  • Aug 20, 2008 1:01pm Aug 20, 2008 1:01pm
Quote
Ten sigma events do happen, if the prospect of blowing your account fills you with dread, err on the side of caution and make sure you live to tell the tale when everyone else has blown up spectacularly. Everything that can happen, will happen, it is just a matter of time.

Are you saying that every profitable system will blow an account, just a matter of time? What kind of timescales are we talking about here?
  • #9
  • Aug 20, 2008 1:13pm Aug 20, 2008 1:13pm
Quoting truthy
Are you saying that every profitable system will blow an account, just a matter of time? What kind of timescales are we talking about here?

There is a possibility that you could have a string of losses long enough to seriously dent any account using any system. This is why it is important to be sufficiently capitalized and to use an appropriate money management strategy, just like you can be whipped out of a 'good' trade by having a stop loss too close to entry, accounts can be blown just though the randomness of the market. A system that is 70% profitable in the long run will not produce 7 profitable trades in every 10 taken, this is just the expected incidence. So, my point was not that any system will fail in the long run (and I do not subscribe to the belief about monkeys, typewriters and the works of Shakespeare either), but that it is prudent that any strategy should take into account multiple deviations from the mean. With reckless money management, even the greatest system can blow an account if the market conditions conspire against us.
  • #10
  • Aug 20, 2008 1:17pm Aug 20, 2008 1:17pm
Quoting CateFul
Normally if I have 3 in a row I'd stop trading for a few days.

Hi,

The system I trade will max trigger 2-3 trades a week.
Some week 0 trade.

So not really same trade methods
  • #11
  • Aug 20, 2008 1:35pm Aug 20, 2008 1:35pm
Quoting mrgreen
Since you are new and your system may not yet be profitable, (or rather you may not know how to trade it profitably). I would suggest no MM as an MM strategy requires a profitable system.
I suggest you simply adopt a 'survival strategy'. Risk no more than 1/2% or even 1/4% per trade until you have an idea what will happen in real time w/ your strategy and yourself. If profitable then pursue a MM strategy.
Ditto Mrgreen
Visit my journal here.
  • #12
  • Aug 20, 2008 1:50pm Aug 20, 2008 1:50pm
Quoting WarrBenj
Hi,

The system I trade will max trigger 2-3 trades a week.
Some week 0 trade.

So not really same trade methods
Low frequency trading doesn't change the fact that you will encounter a big string of losses at some point in the future. Sure, if you are doing day trading then you'll probably experience this sooner than later, but the big string of losses will eventually come no matter what time frame you're using and what's your trading frequency.
"I say high, You say low, You say why, and I say I don't know..."
  • #13
  • Aug 20, 2008 2:03pm Aug 20, 2008 2:03pm
Of course will I encounter a big string of losses. That's why I need a good MM system.
  • #14
  • Last Post: Aug 20, 2008 2:40pm Aug 20, 2008 2:40pm
have a play with this.

it works for me.
If you enter your deposit and trades it will let you know you system acurracy
Imho poor accuracy = poor system signals

have a play and let me know what you think

cheers

Kiwi
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