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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #107,861
  • Aug 20, 2008 4:29am Aug 20, 2008 4:29am
Quoting arezab
yes I think it could be a nice 600 pips fall right from here down to the weekly TL ...

But Actually we missed that nice pin bar on H4 chart. we could enter short there. That was the right place. I was not monitoring this pair for some days ...
u did, not me
i drew attention to that pair last week i think, but didn't find too much interest.

gbp/cad is giving us a wink though on 4h
  • #107,862
  • Aug 20, 2008 4:35am Aug 20, 2008 4:35am
Quoting arezab
Hey guys I'm really tired of this dollar strength. It is really going on my nerves.

Could one of you fundamental guys please investigate about this and find out where this damn strength is coming from and who are the buyers?

Every pull back is jumping back up again like a spring. This is really annoying me
I've found something :

Source:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5923.html

"If you’ve been wondering why the dollar has rallied so sharply, then stop wondering. The kind folks over at the Wall Street Journal have framed up the situation rather well. We’ve been keeping our Members up to speed on the relative game playing out in the currency market. Basically, even as the US economy fails to show any absolute improvement, the relative weakness from its competitors (primarily Europe and the United Kingdom) is driving their respective currencies lower and sending investment capital into the buck."

Source:
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost....19292467236494

"Recent Dollar Strength: Reasons & Implications / Dollar intervention? / Man, that's a lot of people

Why is the U.S. dollar so strong right now?
The U.S. dollar has taken off like a rocket over the past several weeks, rising from 1.60 versus the Euro to today's 1.50 and from less than 100 versus the Yen to today's 110. The main reason for this shift is not stronger than expected performance by the U.S. economy or any supportive or responsible actions being taken by the government or the Federal Reserve, our politicians are still spending money like drunken fishermen after a big catch, the Federal Funds rate is still as low as ever, and the Fed / Treasury are still printing money as fast as they can to bail out or lend to any financial institution that wants it.
The recent dollar strength can completely be attributed to the fact that Western Europe and Japan are experiencing much greater economic weakness than most analysts were forecasting. Currencies are all relative, even though the U.S. isn't really in any better shape than it was a month ago Europe and Japan are in worse shape.
Now as I have said in the past, I'm no gold bug. I would much rather use natural resources, like oil and natural gas, that get consumed to play the weak dollar than gold which just sits there, but a number of the gold bug websites are starting to talk about how the current dollar strength reeks of central bank intervention (see article: Gold Money - Mystery Solved). Do I think that is what is happening right now? It's tough to say. The dollar has fallen a lot and central banks have intervened to help freefalling currencies in the past.
http://www.goldmoney.com/en/images/c...2008-08-07.gif
What are the implications of a stronger dollar?
So for now the dollar is rapidly gaining strength. What are the implications of this? Well for one, U.S. citizens are getting some relief as the price of oil, which is priced in dollars, has started to decline. This is good news for the Federal Reserve because it means that it will be able to keep interest rates at their current low level, or even eventually lower them if growth continues to slow, and not have to hear all of the inflation hawks squawk about how they should be raising rates.
While the drop in the price of oil (which I strongly believe is only temporary) will certainly help the economy in the short run, the United States has many more problems than just expensive oil. The jobs market is still a mess and credit is still tight. I suspect that the economic weakness that we have been seeing will continue.
One aspect of a stronger dollar that I don't hear talked about much is that it will actually make goods that are produced in the U.S. more expensive for foreigners. Exports have been one of the few things that have been keeping the U.S. economy afloat while domestic consumption has slowed. If exports begin to slow too, the GDP could really fall off of a cliff. The government had better be careful what it wishes for, a weak dollar and the strong export numbers that go with it has been one of the few things that the U.S. economy has had going for it lately. Eliminate that and things would look really bad.
Regardless of why the U.S. dollar is rallying right now, I find it unbelievably hard to see how this is the beginning of a new, long term era of dollar strength. It is difficult to say how long the slowdown in Europe or Japan will last or whether it will be as bad as the one that we are likely to experience here in the U.S., but once this upward burst in the dollar is over I expect the long-term fundamentals of a huge current account deficit and a massive Federal debt to once again cause the dollar to continue to slide to even lower lows. It certainly is trendy to talk about how the dollar has seen its lows and how it will rally significantly from here. Time will tell."
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #107,863
  • Aug 20, 2008 4:40am Aug 20, 2008 4:40am
Quoting lilmoe
u did, not me
i drew attention to that pair last week i think, but didn't find too much interest.

gbp/cad is giving us a wink though on 4h
lilmoe,
euraud has a bullish pin bar on the daily though...i would rather wait for the weekly pin bar to break to enter short....
  • #107,864
  • Aug 20, 2008 4:47am Aug 20, 2008 4:47am
Quoting arezab
I've found something :
nice info !
  • #107,865
  • Aug 20, 2008 4:47am Aug 20, 2008 4:47am
Anyone trading kiwi take a look at 4hr/1hr. Ascending channel, possible bearish flag.
  • #107,866
  • Aug 20, 2008 4:49am Aug 20, 2008 4:49am
Quoting ns_karthik77
lilmoe,
euraud has a bullish pin bar on the daily though...i would rather wait for the weekly pin bar to break to enter short....
1 daily bullish pin VS 3 MASSIVE bearish pins? common!

i'm waiting for a daily close below gann to add more shoRts (rolling the "R")
  • #107,867
  • Aug 20, 2008 4:49am Aug 20, 2008 4:49am
Quoting belekas
Anyone trading kiwi take a look at 4hr/1hr. Ascending channel, possible bearish flag.
Not kiwi but I'm with AU ... I'm short and way into green trailing stop is on though.

But this is what I see for kiwi :

I think a %61.8 fib retrace (0.6950) is on the way for this pair.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: kiwi.gif Size: 41 KB
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #107,868
  • Aug 20, 2008 4:52am Aug 20, 2008 4:52am
someone asked me how i keep up with all these pairs... simple:

i day trade cable/GJ/and Euro. but i "Swing" trade other pairs and futures. i only look for the best case scenario setups. it's not that hard. 2 months ago, i used to day trade more than 5 pairs at a time, worked good for a short period then i almost died of none sleep. looool.
  • #107,869
  • Aug 20, 2008 4:53am Aug 20, 2008 4:53am
Quoting arezab
Not kiwi but I'm with AU ... I'm short and way into green trailing stop is on though.
yes yes, i closed my aussy short some days ago for like 330pips, but i entered wayy to late, but pips are pips take a look at kiwi.
  • #107,870
  • Aug 20, 2008 4:54am Aug 20, 2008 4:54am
Quoting arezab
Not kiwi but I'm with AU ... I'm short and way into green trailing stop is on though.
i used to trail stop, BUT, i don't anymore. i move my stops above/below levels where i think price shouldn't go back to when broken. to me it's safer, but if that works for u then go ahead. i don't see why big boys wont fish for trails when they do fish for regular stops.
  • #107,871
  • Aug 20, 2008 4:55am Aug 20, 2008 4:55am
Quoting Jerry
I'm not, i'm planning to short.. if we dont break 110.30 during 2-3h.. lets wait and see..
by the way, monthly R1 is at 109.60 which looks rather tough. a close below that level and off we go

i'm not sure why, but i don't think bearish/bullish flags are the things to trust at the moment when the market is that crazy.
  • #107,872
  • Aug 20, 2008 4:57am Aug 20, 2008 4:57am
Quoting belekas
yes yes, i closed my aussy short some days ago for like 330pips, but i entered wayy to late, but pips are pips take a look at kiwi.
I uploaded a pic for kiwi. See my last post.
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #107,873
  • Aug 20, 2008 5:01am Aug 20, 2008 5:01am
Quoting lilmoe
i used to trail stop, BUT, i don't anymore. i move my stops above/below levels where i think price shouldn't go back to when broken. to me it's safer, but if that works for u then go ahead. i don't see why big boys wont fish for trails when they do fish for regular stops.
yes I use it sometimes and sometimes do it your way. BTW a stop is a stop. It depends on you expectations from that specific position and also which pair you are trading.

I use trailing stop 35 - 50 for regular pairs and 85 - 100 for GJ and GC. Sometimes I move them manually though. Depends on market movement and volatility.
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #107,874
  • Aug 20, 2008 5:04am Aug 20, 2008 5:04am
INFO:

http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...ds&vt=lf&hl=en
  • #107,875
  • Aug 20, 2008 5:04am Aug 20, 2008 5:04am
testing 204 again..
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #107,876
  • Aug 20, 2008 5:04am Aug 20, 2008 5:04am
anyone still thinking longs for GJ?
  • #107,877
  • Aug 20, 2008 5:05am Aug 20, 2008 5:05am
Quoting arezab
I uploaded a pic for kiwi. See my last post.
Dayme, thats alot of info on your chart hehe My chart is alot simplyfied if compared to yours, but its all good because everyone has their own uniq trading style and feel of the market. Based on montly bearish divergence on MACD im targeting the low of 2006 @ ~0.5928.This divergence was approoved my Mr. Igrok in his cave some time ago. So we have alot more room to the downside as well.

Cheers
  • #107,878
  • Aug 20, 2008 5:08am Aug 20, 2008 5:08am
Quoting karmostaji
testing 204 again..
yea, if this fails 1 more time, i think price will go back to 206, but let's hope this doesn't happen, i want to see this DIVE
  • #107,879
  • Aug 20, 2008 5:15am Aug 20, 2008 5:15am
Quoting lilmoe
yea, if this fails 1 more time, i think price will go back to 206, but let's hope this doesn't happen, i want to see this DIVE
i dont expect it to breakdown this week....closed my shorts for good profit to re enter on clear break of 204...or enter shoprt at higher levels....
  • #107,880
  • Aug 20, 2008 5:17am Aug 20, 2008 5:17am
Buying some here with more to come but will be sure to be able to cover all the way down 600 pips
Timing is everything
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