daily/weekly trend trading journal

hello,

I've decided to set up a journal,
1) to have a mental "obligation" to think more before trading
2) gather opinions and suggestions
3) have an archive

I'll be posting the forex trades I make on this journal, or the ones I'll be getting into.

First the chart with the last candle 18-08-2008 (that needed confirmation), then a 19-08-2008 view for USD/PLN ($ to polish zloty) on another chart, since I do not have currently access to the computer with my charting program.

taken today short on the open, SL 21 pips over the HH

I regard this as a risky one, since it might take a correction somewhere. This is a very, very large movement from 4.8 a couple of years ago. this might not be the "grand correction", but who knows??

either way the ichimoku shows a propable movement to 2.15, and I'm short from 2.25.

this is the longterm usd/pln (monthly 10year). the eurpln looks respectively downward.

this pair was for me for about a year now almost a "jacko style trading" pair btw: if you're reading jacko - thanks for all your posts, i'm trying to implement them from some time... overcoming the psyche is quite hard, but the results... its really simple. see and trade. works brilliantly.

as to my trading style - ichimoku + candlestick patterns, usually daily BUT weekly for confirmation. as for the oscillators - macd standard periods (i just like it!), and rsi (5) and cci (3) - as you can see it. these are VERY common and simple indicators. they serve the purpose of seeing the short-term propabilities. I do not have any strict rules reg them. they are there because I like them, no more, no less. I dislike fancy indicators (though laguerre is nice).

as for the candlesticks, I use bulkowski's works, but as he shown that - the best patterns have 80% (meaning 20% fail), and most are in the 60-70% range (30-40% fail).

as for the ichimoku - i prefer to use it over trendlines and other "trending" indicator, though ichimoku has its flaws, that can beat a trader many times. mechanically the kijun-tenkan cross is even worse then simple ema/sma 7/15 cross.

stop losses - "trending way". so I place them not necessirily close to the price. But if the investment is risky, and on the verge of going other way - I prefer to either take profit, or move SL tighter. and if I get out - I try to stay out, never getting the same way into the price, until I have a good confirmed candle signal.

it's more of an interpretary way of trading and art then a scheme. I somewhat hate mechanical systems. they leave out the human as a button clicker. I've tried some mechanical, some trending ways of trading, seems that this works for me (but i know it might not work for everybody). losses sometimes come up, there is no denying it.

this is mostly it. my first "professional" log of my forex activities i had a journal on a polish forex forum, but i think that i can post here - more people read this and sometimes there is less bias.

hello,

well, my funds have reached this account, so it was time to look at the situation on the most pairs.

i've decided to enter the best potentially looking pair at the moment, the aud/usd. the pattern from days -4 to -1 looks like a mutated morning star, with the star hanging a bit too high. nevertheless it got confirmed by two candles, so the chart looks positive.

the bloody problem with this pair is that the cat might bounce, and this had fallen quite heavily. i gather it was more of a carry unwinding like in the past. but one has to look out.

i have made 3 positive predictions of this index going upward. negation is under 0.8600. therefore today I have entered long at 0.8731.

either way it is confirmed, unlike the eur/usd. something is not right with how the e/u looks on the daily, so I'll stick to my method of not trading something i do not understand

yesterday I also made two trades, out of the planned ordinary of posting before taking. these were usdchf short 1.0945 (going) and eurusd long 1.4798 (closed 1.4859 - darn, it went there and continued upward as usual ). the e/u was a planned daytrade, not a longer time period position.

for the usdchf chart what made me consider shorting this beast - long way to equilibrium upward, lower highs and bottoms on the 15minute interval, and indicators going way up meaning that this movement upward should correct itself. a couple hundred pips maybe. the current stop loss is over the recent HH.

as for the eurusd - i'll be looking into long entry in the 1.4820-14800 range. if I will not get it, then I will surely profit from the usdchf which should fall if the eurusd grows today. so no worry here. a correction of the yesterday movement would be nice. here is a chart with the possible outcome

took a manual fill for EUR/USD at 1.4838, though I could have taken it lower. should have sticked with the 1.4825 limit order I had, but well it seemed like a good idea.

either way I'm back in E/U long at 1.4838

so:
long aud/usd from 0.8731
long eur/usd from 1.4838
short usd/chf from 1.0945

stoplosses as I have said - recent HH and LL +- 10-20 pips.

still its just "working the daily candle".

the "recent" here means that it is on the daily candle of course. hence, a stop loss that is below the support that NEGATES the movement in the direction of the trade, or gives a confirmed opposite signal. either way it is a long way off. also I am trying not to leverage too much, since that killed me once - and may do that again. the current loss per trade made is averaging around "horrendous" 2.5% deposit. (although I stick with 1% of my "dedicated investment capital" - not wiring all my funds at once - just for safe measures). i plan to trade 10k lots for the time being.

entry and exit basing on:
a) candle reversal patterns
b) their position on the ichimoku based chart
c) yes i am waiting for a close, so I will not give a SL that would be made by a bearish engulfing, since the price may go down abruptly, but end the day making new highs/lows in the direction of the trade. the SL i below the HH/LL of the daily candles that would negate an upward movement.

as far as ichimoku - it goes a way off equilibrium and posts a reversal - go in. and all other rules. I do not trade "mechanically" the crosses. the candles usually put one into a trade way before the cross is made.

if I won't take that trade than that is it, I am not exactly looking at an entry place. If I feel overlevaraged in that market direction (i.e. short dollar pairs) I do not enter such trades.

so now having eurusd, usdchf and audusd I am NOT looking at the usd pairs for safety reasons. maybe the e/u is an "overleverage" here, but well, that can happen.

so much to the money management of my trading.

also one good thing about trading the daily/weekly chart - it makes You more immune to daily flunctuations. at least a bit psychologically.

is it a good way to trade? time will tell. back testing this is easy. but it is prone for bad entries as any method, as I can prove numerous times. it's not personal, it's bussiness.

so propably - "sayonara for the weekend"

and so it now is clear, the dollar strenghtens more. I've got the e/u stopped out and awaiting to "hedge" jacko style. if there will be a chance. the aussie got stopped out, and is over the stop now, so I cant apply that strategy, furthermore the bloody aussie is still as if on the 1H and 4H in a downtrend... so I am not doing anything about it at the moment. looks strange. as for the usdchf i'm still below my stop so its still rolling.

i've shorted the cable at 1.8428, longed the eurchf at 99.94, longed eurjpy at 162.04.

I've decided to work on smaller positions, just in case this method wouldn't work out as expected. it works on stocks, but they are not 24h... hmmm...

I've made some extensive back-testing, and well, the daily candles are good with forex, but it seems that their fail ratio is higher than for stocks and futures I trade using this method. I've made some "demo" trades, moving day-by-day and unfortunately in the long run (at least for the E/U) i came negative. A mistake then on my part. I've made a demo run (using 2007 data) for the 4h candles and the results were much better. Unfortunately it is not the EOD I prefer - so honestly I'm not sure whether this journal should be titles as it titled )

As for the current positions I do have is:
EUR/USD short from 1.4790 (current 1.4718)
GBP/USD short from 1.8465 (current 1.8471)

as for my previous entries I have liquidated them quite shortly after they have rallied in my direction a bit. but that was like 4-8pips.

so for now I will stick with the 4h candlesticks, comparing them with 1h. I'll post more in the morning, I sat way too long today testing it all...