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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #5,461
  • Aug 19, 2008 4:28am Aug 19, 2008 4:28am
Quoting Billionaire
Hi! Joy,

May I know what currency pair you trade the most ?

Regards,
Hi Billionaire

I trade these days while learning from fti only eur/usd...however I watch aus/usd (I'm patriotic you see).... I also watch gbp/usd and usd/jpy

I was not always this disciplined, I used to watch and worse trade aus/usd, gbp/usd, eur/usd, usd/jpy, eur/jpy, usd/chf, usd/cad,gbp/jpyand aud/jpy.

well now after you have stopped laughing and fti stopped choking on those ciggies along with fosters...

I have seen the errors of my wicked ways and joined the fti harem
I can say I am now profitable, not wildly so but pleasantly so... typical of harems i'm told

please believe me when I say that immersing yourself in the archives will help you immensely.. go one step forward and two steps back, sometimes 3,4,5 steps back until you understand each step..

sorry I'm rambling again
joy
  • #5,462
  • Edited 5:23am Aug 19, 2008 4:47am | Edited 5:23am
Quoting hpr
I understand that you have sold some positions. Now you say 'dont waste energy'. So have you closed your positions?
Hi hpr,
Yes have cut the few pips loss, had dinner already. and waiting for the 8:30 figs.
and listening to some of my nice music collection and watching soccer on TV sound muted. Belgium just scored goal , nigeria should be going to the locker room.at 1:4 its like the odds trading the markets now.
Anything else before I go to the washroom?

regards

JUst to continue the rambling, when the forex markets behaves like coffee, or frozen concentrated orange juice, then they disgrace themselves, the market makers these days puchat la.
I really hate it when I am deep in the money and they pull a fast one like they did. Sure kiasu bunch, might as well not trade thin markets, not worth the trouble.
  • #5,463
  • Aug 19, 2008 5:22am Aug 19, 2008 5:22am
Quoting Billionaire
Hi MaMood,
May I know the time & price level of your scout & rescue ?

regards,
Hi Billionaire,

here is my blotter:

S x 1 x USDJPY x 109.75 0415 GMT Scout
S x 4 x USDJPY x 109.87 0450 GMT Rescue 1
S x 25 x USDJPY x 110.00 0515 GMT Rescue 2
S x 200 x USDJPY x 110.26 0630 GMT Rescue 3
B x 200 x USDJPY x 110.20 0640 GMT
B x 29 x USDJPY x 110.00 0700 GMT

Just for info: I'm trading minilots, that means largest position were 20 Lots, not 200 ;-)

I'm running some exercises for myself to get rid of the fear to trade large positions with real money. That's the reason, why I added so agressively in my rescues.
  • #5,464
  • Aug 19, 2008 5:27am Aug 19, 2008 5:27am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Billionaire,

here is my blotter:

S x 1 x USDJPY x 109.75 0415 GMT Scout
S x 4 x USDJPY x 109.87 0450 GMT Rescue 1
S x 25 x USDJPY x 110.00 0515 GMT Rescue 2
S x 200 x USDJPY x 110.26 0630 GMT Rescue 3
B x 200 x USDJPY x 110.20 0640 GMT
B x 29 x USDJPY x 110.00 0700 GMT

Just for info: I'm trading minilots, that means largest position were 20 Lots, not 200 ;-)

I'm running some exercises for myself to get rid of the fear to trade large positions with real money. That's the reason, why I added so agressively in my rescues.
Is this demo account?
  • #5,465
  • Aug 19, 2008 5:38am Aug 19, 2008 5:38am
OK, with the BS out of the way , now we wait for fish to talk.
  • #5,466
  • Aug 19, 2008 5:47am Aug 19, 2008 5:47am
Quoting auxesis
Is this demo account?
No, real money.
I could imagine, what you are thinking.

I had some good success to fight my acrophobia with such kind of extreme therapy. Went on skyscrapers coached by my doctor.

Hope it will work against the fears of loss too.
Target of the execercise is to keep a cool mind, when the numbers running against you ...
  • #5,467
  • Aug 19, 2008 5:52am Aug 19, 2008 5:52am
Quoting MaMood
No, real money.
I could imagine, what you are thinking.

I had some good success to fight my acrophobia with such kind of extreme therapy. Went on skyscrapers coached by my doctor.

Hope it will work against the fears of loss too.
Target of the execercise is to keep a cool mind, when the numbers running against you ...
Mamood,

jmho, but a demo cannot give you the feel of having live money on a trade, only when it hurts or you feel the urge to cut profits short fear/greed will the nerves get a work out.

Demo's are great to work on the mechanics, so trade them accordingly and like you would with real money, then when ready start small, very small, and adjust the water temperature until your comfortable.

just my thoughts.

regards,
  • #5,468
  • Aug 19, 2008 5:54am Aug 19, 2008 5:54am
Quoting auxesis
Mamood,

jmho, but a demo cannot give you the feel of having live money on a trade, only when it hurts or you feel the urge to cut profits short fear/greed will the nerves get a work out.

Demo's are great to work on the mechanics, so trade them accordingly and like you would with real money, then when ready start small, very small, and adjust the water temperature until your comfortable.

just my thoughts.

regards,
Maybe you got me wrong.
It was real money ....

And to be honest: I didn't felt comfortable. After squaring all positions I had to take a little rest to calm down ....
  • #5,469
  • Aug 19, 2008 5:56am Aug 19, 2008 5:56am
Quoting MaMood
Maybe you got me wrong.
It was real money ....
Ooops my bad!

I understand now, apologies
  • #5,470
  • Aug 19, 2008 6:08am Aug 19, 2008 6:08am
MaMood, for me it seemed you went in large too soon.

It is excellent that you have the capacity to rescue with big size.

But how will you rescue 200?
  • #5,471
  • Aug 19, 2008 6:12am Aug 19, 2008 6:12am
Quoting piccolo
MaMood, for me it seemed you went in large too soon.

It is excellent that you have the capacity to rescue with big size.

But how will you rescue 200?
Have done that before.. And tried to rescue it.. and it grew and grew til I had to bite the bullet.. scary but made me stronger
Read 'The disciplined trader'.
  • #5,472
  • Aug 19, 2008 6:15am Aug 19, 2008 6:15am
Quoting piccolo
MaMood, for me it seemed you went in large too soon.

It is excellent that you have the capacity to rescue with big size.

But how will you rescue 200?
Yes, you are probably right.
But that was part of my exercise. I wanted to get in trouble. And I was in big trouble. Much bigger than I'm able to handle with out getting a heartattack.

To your question: If price rose to fridays high of round about 110.70 without a successful rescue, I had to get out to save my book and my health.

Conclusion: I won't do that kind of exercise very soon again. I have to get much more confident, before taking such a big position again ....
  • #5,473
  • Aug 19, 2008 6:22am Aug 19, 2008 6:22am
Hi ALL,


Is it my charts only or is everyone experiencing gaps every where.
According to interbank dealers, the markets are quite smooth.
BUT my charts are like crazy.

A few times , they quoted me 15 pips from my charts and I f them, but they told me that was where the market was.
Then later the charts just gapped there.


regards
  • #5,474
  • Aug 19, 2008 6:22am Aug 19, 2008 6:22am
Quoting MaMood
Yes, you are probably right.
But that was part of my exercise. I wanted to get in trouble. And I was in big trouble. Much bigger than I'm able to handle with out getting a heartattack.

To your question: If price rose to fridays high of round about 110.70 without a successful rescue, I had to get out to save my book and my health.

Conclusion: I won't do that kind of exercise very soon again. I have to get much more confident, before taking such a big position again ....
The difference between Management and Ownership, the later deals with your own money.

That which doesn't eat us makes us stronger.
  • #5,475
  • Aug 19, 2008 6:22am Aug 19, 2008 6:22am
Quoting MaMood
Yes, you are probably right.
But that was part of my exercise. I wanted to get in trouble. And I was in big trouble. Much bigger than I'm able to handle with out getting a heartattack.

To your question: If price rose to fridays high of round about 110.70 without a successful rescue, I had to get out to save my book and my health.

Conclusion: I won't do that kind of exercise very soon again. I have to get much more confident, before taking such a big position again ....
what about 1,1,2,3,5,8,5,3..?

but to be honest (even tho I do it myself from time to time), this is asking for trouble.
  • #5,476
  • Aug 19, 2008 6:24am Aug 19, 2008 6:24am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,


Is it my charts only or is everyone experiencing gaps every where.
According to interbank dealers, the markets are quite smooth.
BUT my charts are like crazy.

regards
Noise charts here...reset a couple times..Oanda...Now ok
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #5,477
  • Aug 19, 2008 6:24am Aug 19, 2008 6:24am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,


Is it my charts only or is everyone experiencing gaps every where.
According to interbank dealers, the markets are quite smooth.
BUT my charts are like crazy.

regards
Hi fti,

I had a gap only during USD PPI news. Now all is smooth.

regards
  • #5,478
  • Aug 19, 2008 6:24am Aug 19, 2008 6:24am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,


Is it my charts only or is everyone experiencing gaps every where.
According to interbank dealers, the markets are quite smooth.
BUT my charts are like crazy.

regards
Hi fti,

seems to be your charting software/service.
I coudn't find any gaps.
Even the 30second charts are smooth
  • #5,479
  • Aug 19, 2008 6:29am Aug 19, 2008 6:29am
Quoting MaMood
Hi fti,

seems to be your charting software/service.
I coudn't find any gaps.
Even the 30second charts are smooth
Thanks, Noted.
Spoils my trading feel.
I am changing servers now.

regards.
  • #5,480
  • Aug 19, 2008 6:44am Aug 19, 2008 6:44am
And jsut another insight of my "rescue adventure" this morning:

Whenever you are doing a rescue with high risk:
If you reach breakeven or you are even close to it, reduce your exposure!
You can get the missing pips/$$ later.
Always reduce your exposure as soon as possible.

Don't try to get some large profits with your very large rescue troops.
Scale down,
listen to the dance again
and if indicated: Start an attack!

It would get very fast very horrible, when the market runs against your level 2 or level 3 rescue ....
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