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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #5,401
  • Aug 18, 2008 7:03am Aug 18, 2008 7:03am
Quoting jest1081
well, maybe, just maybe u've summed it up lah. lol.

i just think the teacher has become a bit fiesty as of late, proly due to our inability to grasps his teaching even after various examples. Im starting to believe that its impossible to learn this unless i get personal training from him. sigh.

anyway, i think the loss of several prominent members and some who has silently dissappeared to may have affected him, he's quite attached to a few of the veterans here and now the've gone. im just speculating tho, but if i were in his shoes i'd be affected too. aiya, what to do....
Hi! Jest1081,

Not possible at all to summarize. I think trading is on going thing and can only be finally said we are successful or not till the day we quit. I don't think everyperson will like trading, the passion toward trading cannot be teach, those who love trading...love it by born nature trait, hope I am right! and I bet you will never quit trading in your lifetime, regardless of your result, I knew it for sure. A little bit like gambling addition, Ha! Ha!

If trading can make one bankrupt (to the extreme), it must also able to make one rich. I think Mr FTI's way of trading is the highest level of trading which I mean is one can always survive in trading unlike other rigid trading method which (maybe) cannot last long enough when failed to adapt to change in market. You know, one thing100% sure is market must win or there will be no market, and this CANNOT happen. Lat time, I tend to ask/search/think how to know market's direction? How to predict PA will goes up or down? Ha! Ha! I still do it, but when I get more and more experienced, (specially after reading this thread that free my trading thought about rules of trading), I am able to spot it, guard it and overcome it more steadily, by telling myself that if I can predict, market will not exist. This mean my prediction is nothing more than a 50/50 guess, and I know I cannot win by only relying such a 50/50 guess to trade.

Thus, other factors must come in and works together hand in hand to win the trade, these is what Mr FTI has already mentioned and the most three important factors are the Market, Us the traders and the $ capitalisation.

I have so much to say yet (my thought, not sure wrong or right), but later when I free again. Oh!, Trust me, I believe Mr FTI's emotion will never ACTUALLY be influenced/affected by us or anybody based on his vast life/trading experience, his current financial status and his wisdom. If not, he will not be that successful in trading.....

regards,
  • #5,402
  • Aug 18, 2008 7:13am Aug 18, 2008 7:13am
Billionaire... well said and very wise

btw what does your avatar (rose) represent?

joy
  • #5,403
  • Aug 18, 2008 7:20am Aug 18, 2008 7:20am
Quoting fti
Hi,
Thanks for the white rose.
It is not necessary, not on your avatar.

Thanks for the gesture, but you may have misundertood. I am not .

regards
Hi! Mr FTI,

Sorry that I don't understand your reply above. Anyway, I did not think of anything, I have the habbit to think of this : How to explain "sweet" ? (It's funny to me) whenever I encounter something difficult to apprehand without experience.

regards,
  • #5,404
  • Aug 18, 2008 7:28am Aug 18, 2008 7:28am
Quoting joypips
Billionaire... well said and very wise

btw what does your avatar (rose) represent?

joy
Hi joypips,

No special meaning, just for the sake of putting one. I will change it quite often, I think.
Anyway, I like rose because it imply love!

regards,
  • #5,405
  • Aug 18, 2008 8:33am Aug 18, 2008 8:33am
Quoting piccolo
I am going to say something many have said before:

"I will re-read the thread again"

regards,

Hi

Thank you for help. A good place to start would be to re-read the thread again LOL.

Musgrove- thanks for the link

fti- will try flow with the river, and stop using my bucket
To keep trading, even when it gets hard.
  • #5,406
  • Edited 10:02am Aug 18, 2008 9:13am | Edited 10:02am
Quoting auxesis
Just a exercise for everyone, it will be interesting to see everyones views

given these two charts for the euro (or your own).

Whats the trend daily and other, are you Dollar bull or bear and why.
I'll jump into this topic, auxesis. The daily trend is down, and the shorter-term chart shows a retracement. I am a dollar bull until the daily trend changes, but will watch the shorter-term (1H) trend to indicate a trend reversal (it'll show up there before we see it on the day chart). I know there are traders here who will trade this in any direction, but I am ONLY a seller of the EUR/$ pair until the trend changes (no matter what song is playing).

If you look at the most recent up move on the 1H chart, you will see that the PA has now moved to and stalled at approx. the 618 fib of the up move. For me, the wait trade is on until the market makes a decision. The formation is a typical reversal pattern but needs more time to prove this out. Might be interested in becoming a buyer if 4750 is breached.

That is what I see. And please, don't anyone tell me I am too ridged in trading this way.
  • #5,407
  • Aug 18, 2008 9:26am Aug 18, 2008 9:26am
Quoting auxesis
Just a exercise for everyone, it will be interesting to see everyones views

given these two charts for the euro (or your own).

Whats the trend daily and other, are you Dollar bull or bear and why.
I take the challenge,

If I look only at E/U then:
Daily: dollar bull - break out of range, then no clear bottom yet, no retrace.
Hourly: dollar bull - lower lows, lower highs
5min: dollar bull - same
  • #5,408
  • Aug 18, 2008 10:08am Aug 18, 2008 10:08am
Here's how I see it.

fwiw
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  • #5,409
  • Aug 18, 2008 10:18am Aug 18, 2008 10:18am
not sure if i would wanna punt a bottom yet. but 1hr may have completed a 5 wave formation too and ur 5 min charts also suggested 5 subwaves completion. so yeah maybe.

but if i were to dance, the dance would bring me short....i will seek to retest the pvs bottom. and by now i should be out of teh trades again squared due to the higher low created in the 5 mins.

nevertheless i will not consider any longs yet.
  • #5,410
  • Aug 18, 2008 11:11am Aug 18, 2008 11:11am
Done for the day with some profit..not bad for a slow Monday.

Comments
1D/1H are bullish...so I traded bullish...I did not pay attention to any pattern but I kept an eye on each 5M bar... and that was very healthy...Be carefull with dancing long: long momentum has a very short life when trading against 1D...If I were still trading today, I would wait until after lunch and I would keep dancing the bullish music: I would fibo-dollar-buy each 5M high.

Good luck
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #5,411
  • Aug 18, 2008 12:10pm Aug 18, 2008 12:10pm
Hi! All,

I have been thinking about "the rules of trading" all the while. If I was not wrong, Mr FTI said that there is no rules in trading. Some may not agree, but first of all, I want to know : What is the "rules" means? How to define it?, I think we may not finish arguing even for a thousand years. I think rules is subjective things; yes! it seem there are rules in trading like stoploss etc.., but I asked myself this : Mr FTI based on his experience, knowledge & wisdom, it's impossible that he is unable to understand/know whether there are rules in trading or not, just like a mathematic professor does not understand/know the answer of 1/2 + 1/4. So, Mr FTI should/must be correct about it; and finally, I think I understand it : trading has no rules.

My thought is : if there were many rules in trading, this has actually means NO RULES in/by itself. (Quite hard to explain with my simple English, my regret)

Good Night! Regards,
  • #5,412
  • Aug 18, 2008 12:14pm Aug 18, 2008 12:14pm
Quoting Billionaire
Hi! All,

I have been thinking about "the rules of trading" all the while. If I was not wrong, Mr FTI said that there is no rules in trading. Some may not agree, but first of all, I want to know : What is the "rules" means? How to define it?, I think we may not finish arguing even for a thousand years. I think rules is subjective things; yes! it seem there are rules in trading like stoploss etc.., but I asked myself this : Mr FTI based on his experience, knowledge & wisdom, it's impossible that he is unable to understand/know whether there are rules in trading or not, just like a mathematic professor does not understand/know the answer of 1/2 + 1/4. So, Mr FTI should/must be correct about it; and finally, I think I understand it : trading has no rules.

My thought is : if there were many rules in trading, this has actually means NO RULES in/by itself. (Quite hard to explain with my simple English, my regret)

Good Night! Regards,
Sure, there are rules.

Let me give you some rules.

1) Buy low and sell high.
2) Trading the news is gambling.
3) Emotional trading destroys the book.
4) Preserve your trading capital at all cost.
5) Babyseat your trades.
6) Stop losses are seating ducks.
Etc.

Aren't they good and objective rules?
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #5,413
  • Edited 1:48pm Aug 18, 2008 12:30pm | Edited 1:48pm
Quoting Billionaire
Hi! All,

I have been thinking about "the rules of trading" all the while. If I was not wrong, Mr FTI said that there is no rules in trading. Some may not agree, but first of all, I want to know : What is the "rules" means? How to define it?, I think we may not finish arguing even for a thousand years. I think rules is subjective things; yes! it seem there are rules in trading like stoploss etc.., but I asked myself this : Mr FTI based on his experience, knowledge & wisdom, it's impossible that he is unable to understand/know whether there are rules in trading or not, just like a mathematic professor does not understand/know the answer of 1/2 + 1/4. So, Mr FTI should/must be correct about it; and finally, I think I understand it : trading has no rules.

My thought is : if there were many rules in trading, this has actually means NO RULES in/by itself. (Quite hard to explain with my simple English, my regret)

Good Night! Regards,
I strongly believe that you must trade with some set of rules (I call it a trading strategy) that you have experience executing. The FTI method has a strong set of rules that you should learn and practice before trading with a live account. Try to successfully execute this strategy in a demo account first. Please do not place a live trade with real money until you accept this fact. Go back and re-read this entire thread.
A few I suggest you follow:
Trade with the trend (you establish your own rule of which trend you trade)
Use scout trades to establish a market position
Snowball trades that go in your favor (you need to know the recommended rules for this)
Rescue trades that go against you (go back and review the rules for rescue)
Rescue only when you are trading with the trend (you need to know the rescue rules for snowballing)
Establish your "threshold of pain" and stick to it to protect your margin account
Show no fear or greed when trading
Turn off technical indicators (which is not to say you should not do technical analysis) to establish a feel for PA

Good luck!
  • #5,414
  • Aug 18, 2008 1:25pm Aug 18, 2008 1:25pm
Quoting luSan
Sure, there are rules.

Let me give you some rules.

1) Buy low and sell high. Basic fact as we cannot profit if we don't buy low sell high, just like we cannot survive if we don't eat before we talk about what and how to eat. Again, buy low sell high, but how ? any rules ?..

2) Trading the news is gambling. Gambling or not depends on individual's method of trading, financial status etc

3) Emotional trading destroys the book. Basic fact as we cannot simply eat, we must eat "food", just like baby (novice trader) will simply eat, adults (experienced traders) will eat only "eatable food"

4) Preserve your trading capital at all cost. Basic fact as we are not able to trade without capital, just like we are not able to buy things without money before we think what to buy and how to buy. Again, any specific rules to preserve capital?

5) Babyseat your trades. Basic fact as we will not know how is the situation going on in order to react, just like we must look at the progress while we are playing chess. But how to babyseat, any specific rules?

6) Stop losses are seating ducks. I think this is correct under certain circumstances/trading method. Again, it's subjective and depends how we view about stoplosses, can I see "bite the bullet" in Mr FTI's trading style as a form of stoploss ? And also, I think we are not sure whether we can make profit or not just basing on whether we apply "stoploss" or not. So, can we definitely not making profit if we apply any "form" of stoplosses?
Etc.

Aren't they good and objective rules?
Hi! luSan,
You are right!, as I said rule is subjective in definition to me. If you treat the above as rules, then, they are rules to you. For me, some are "basic facts" and others depands on how you look at it. For e.g highlighted in blue above.

regards,
  • #5,415
  • Edited Aug 19, 2008 1:30am Aug 18, 2008 1:38pm | Edited Aug 19, 2008 1:30am
Quoting rapaduski1
I strongly believe that you must trade with some set of rules (I call it a trading strategy) that you have experience executing. The FTI method has a strong set of rules that you should learn and practice before trading with a live account. Try to successfully execute this strategy in a demo account first. Please do not place a live trade with real money until you accept this fact. Go back are re-read this entire thread. Ask better question about what is being taught here.
Hi! rapaduski1,

Thank you for your advice. Yes! You are right. If you see trading strategy, each & every strategy as rules, then, they are rules to you!

Anyway, my appreciation if you don't mind state Mr FTI's strong set of rules for me ? I hope to learn more!

Just a thought of mine : If the "rules" can be explained, then, the explanation is not the actual/real rules. (Like Chinese saying: 道可道, 非常道). (Sorry, forgot to state that this paragraph was me talking to myself )

regards,
  • #5,416
  • Edited 8:49pm Aug 18, 2008 1:43pm | Edited 8:49pm
Quoting Billionaire
Hi! luSan,
You are right!, as I said rule is subjective in definition to me. If you treat the above as rules, then, they are rules to you. For me, some are "basic facts" and others depands on how you look at it. For e.g highlighted in blue above.

regards,
fine with me if you want call "these rules" facts....facts are objectives..You buy low and sell high by dancing:buy when everybody is selling. Thats obvious. This is semantic.

Did you dance today? If you did, then I hope you sold high!

Note: I hope you read at least 200 pages. If so, you already know that the only way to learn dancing if by dancing. Talking does not help much.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #5,417
  • Aug 18, 2008 1:51pm Aug 18, 2008 1:51pm
Quoting Billionaire
Hi! rapaduski1,

Thank you for your advice. Yes! You are right. If you see trading strategy, each & every strategy as rules, then, they are rules to you!

Anyway, my appreciation if you don't mind state Mr FTI's strong set of rules for me ? I hope to learn more!

Just a thought of mine : If the "rules" can be explained, then, the explanation is not the actual/real rules. (Like Chinese saying: 道可道, 非常道).

regards,
Hi, I added a few thoughts to my original post. Please take a look at it. As for Chinese saying, I am not Chinese nor do I play one TV, so not sure what you mean.
  • #5,418
  • Aug 18, 2008 2:13pm Aug 18, 2008 2:13pm
Quoting Billionaire
Hi! All,

I have been thinking about "the rules of trading" all the while. If I was not wrong, Mr FTI said that there is no rules in trading. Some may not agree, but first of all, I want to know : What is the "rules" means? How to define it?, I think we may not finish arguing even for a thousand years. I think rules is subjective things; yes! it seem there are rules in trading like stoploss etc.., but I asked myself this : Mr FTI based on his experience, knowledge & wisdom, it's impossible that he is unable to understand/know whether there are rules in trading or not, just like a mathematic professor does not understand/know the answer of 1/2 + 1/4. So, Mr FTI should/must be correct about it; and finally, I think I understand it : trading has no rules.

My thought is : if there were many rules in trading, this has actually means NO RULES in/by itself. (Quite hard to explain with my simple English, my regret)

Good Night! Regards,
actually u struck a point. in reality there are no rules, but humans being humans needs guidelines just so that they wont go astray. lol. we tend to box oursleves over and over again. its evident in my pvs posts too. how alarming!

to come to terms with this, all you need to do is pull a random trade...and let the mental setup settle everything, trading is indeed very much a mindset approach. What you really need to succeed .... is to own money you really meant to throw away. hahaha, and that settles half the battle.

most of the time i find myslef caught up in a profit protection battle rather than pruning it, why is that so? attachment....

so what are the rules? nothing really, it removes all sort of rigidity, all that matters is....how positive is ur book and how much pressure can u take before u succumb?

no matter what antiques you play, the market will continue to adapt and re-adapt. thus fti has shared one of the most important thing, the only way for you to keep the stop losses away is to pace the market....that word pace...has a very important meaning. you dont ever try to beat her, pace her, if she moves forward u move forward, if she moves backward while ur were pacing her forward, give her sometime, see if she tracks back to u, else, chase her or seduce her (if you can) lol.

good day billionaire
  • #5,419
  • Aug 18, 2008 5:29pm Aug 18, 2008 5:29pm
[quote=jest1081;2171299]actually u struck a point. in reality there are no rules, but humans being humans needs guidelines just so that they wont go astray. lol. we tend to box oursleves over and over again. its evident in my pvs posts too. how alarming!

to come to terms with this, all you need to do is pull a random trade...and let the mental setup settle everything, trading is indeed very much a mindset approach. What you really need to succeed .... is to own money you really meant to throw away. hahaha, and that settles half the battle.

most of the time i find myslef caught up in a profit protection battle rather than pruning it, why is that so? attachment....

so what are the rules? nothing really, it removes all sort of rigidity, all that matters is....how positive is ur book and how much pressure can u take before u succumb?

no matter what antiques you play, the market will continue to adapt and re-adapt. thus fti has shared one of the most important thing, the only way for you to keep the stop losses away is to pace the market....that word pace...has a very important meaning. you dont ever try to beat her, pace her, if she moves forward u move forward, if she moves backward while ur were pacing her forward, give her sometime, see if she tracks back to u, else, chase her or seduce her (if you can) lol.


This is more like the jest I have come to know and admire....welcome back

joy
  • #5,420
  • Aug 18, 2008 7:09pm Aug 18, 2008 7:09pm
Quoting jest1081
so what are the rules? nothing really, it removes all sort of rigidity, all that matters is....how positive is ur book and how much pressure can u take before u succumb?
well established guide lines seems to be what we have
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