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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #5,381
  • Edited 10:49pm Aug 17, 2008 9:43pm | Edited 10:49pm
Hi,
For All Flower Loving People.

夏川りみ - 花Flower （すべての人の心に花を）
Inserted Video


GoodBye My love.
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  • #5,382
  • Aug 17, 2008 10:45pm Aug 17, 2008 10:45pm
Hi all,

fti- I have a question, (probably a silly question, but a question none the less).

I realize that your 'method/system' works on dancing what you see on the chart (naked), and incorporates MM skews in attack and rescue.

I have utilized the rescue MM skew, enough times to know that it works. My question is-

How do we know what dance we are dancing?

I seem to be rescueing ALL the time. I seem to keep getting it wrong, wanting to waltz when its the tango....

Are there any clues that show us which way to go?

Thanks
To keep trading, even when it gets hard.
  • #5,383
  • Edited 11:13pm Aug 17, 2008 10:50pm | Edited 11:13pm
Quoting MichaelSA
Hi all,

fti- I have a question, (probably a silly question, but a question none the less).

I realize that your 'method/system' works on dancing what you see on the chart (naked), and incorporates MM skews in attack and rescue.

I have utilized the rescue MM skew, enough times to know that it works. My question is-

How do we know what dance we are dancing?

I seem to be rescueing ALL the time. I seem to keep getting it wrong, wanting to waltz when its the tango....

Are there any clues that show us which way to go?

Thanks
Hi,
Yes

If you go down to the river and try to carry the river away in a bucket, then you clearly do not understand.

regards
  • #5,384
  • Aug 17, 2008 11:07pm Aug 17, 2008 11:07pm
Quoting MichaelSA
Hi all,

Are there any clues that show us which way to go?

Thanks
Here is a good site for formations and such http://thepatternsite.com/chartpatterns.html
  • #5,385
  • Aug 18, 2008 12:24am Aug 18, 2008 12:24am
Well lets sit down and discuss again while we are seeing euro rally.

There are a few pillars in the method but we are not sanctioned by secular rigidity. So what are they ways we can use to identify our perceivable directions?

1. FTI has always indicated that the dailiy trend is important.
2. The 1hour trend.
3. The 5minute bars.

Personally i've always found that the easiest and high percentile returning approach is when all three frames are lining up nicely together.

But note that when trading fx, you are not walled by 'time factor'. The trade can go on as long as it needs to, depending on the trend and the mode that you are in (attack/rescue).

Now how do we conduct a proper attack? Simple, as long as prices keeps moving in direction, keep adding. What would you do if it decides to reverse?

There are two things that are likely to happen if price reversed.

1. just a retracement,
2. you are facing a possible reversal.

so how do we know which one is which? ANS : We dont.

My approach is, as long as price reversed beyond the level where my scout entered, i cut loss on attacks to a more manageable skew. Sometimes i cut all and only left the scout in

from there on I am only doing 1 thing in such a predicatment....Rescue.

1. Price retracement ended and moves back towards my scout....Send in the rescue. No attacking whatsoever.

Even after rescue, my book may still be -ve due to attack losses, thus at this moment, i will usually sit back and re-look at the possibilities. I have to admit this moments are the moments where i feel the utmost anxiety,

coz i usually will have a few things going on in my mind.

1. I will ponder the trend.
2. I will be too eager to get back into the market to win back my losses. Sigh. (This point i usually lose all psycholgical groundings)

On bad dancing
Then they will be times when i cut my attacks, only to see price moving back to my direction, (utterly bad dancing). What do i do? No choice, attack again lor.

Learning more
A few things i have learned, when dancing, dont be afraid to attack hard. If it fails, cut. Usually price runs on trends are very consistent, its not often you will find yourself in a situation where you will have to cut out ur attacks, so the next time ur attack fails, you will realise, 'hey somethings not right here, the price isnt moving as it used to, somethings going on'.

Count the waves. 12345. Its not someting that is cast in stone but its good to at least have it at the back of your mind. (by far this is the nearest thing to TA that fti has shared.)

FTI, please vet the above, i am i doing it right?
and also how do you approach your failed attacks, do you cut em, or you continue to snowball em?
  • #5,386
  • Aug 18, 2008 1:24am Aug 18, 2008 1:24am
Quoting fti
Hi, so if thats the case, then it wouldn't mean much if I just deleted this thread. Sure wouldn't wnat to waste all the TA's time on this junk.
hey fti,

you shouldnt feel offended. You see, us newbs come frm a different school of knowledge. To us Macds, candle patterns, rsi, triple timeframe anlaysis, MAs and all its junk. Thats TA to us, or whatever makes of it.

You have opened a new window to the old perspective, for us. Running with price realtime, thats new. Most of us used to trade 'Signals', none of us have the 'feel', remember the books taught us to detest 'feelings'.

Why did i say elliot waves was the closst thing? Coz its the only reference that i have that have any real meaning to TA before i read your thread. The rest are entirely new to me. Tearing, dancing, etc.

anyway, why is it TA? You have taught us not to analyse but instead follow. Well i'd agree if its called technical trading. Just an opinion. You can get the whips prepared if you think im off.

regards
jest
  • #5,387
  • Aug 18, 2008 2:02am Aug 18, 2008 2:02am
hello everyone

jest... I don't know if I dance correctly but I have managed over 100 pips today. I have a day off work and decided this morning to try and dance asian session....I checked daily aus, eur and gbp then hrly and 5min.

what did I see... well not clever like you lot but did spot that p/bar on gbp and said to myself eur it is, let's dance, if I find myself out of step I know how to rescue if necessary and I felt that music and was rewarded.

I felt from your post that you were looking for a hard and fast set of rules... I have learnt that best not to have any pre-conceived rules in mind when doing this dance but them them come to you.(I didn't explain that properly but I don't know how)

sorry for poor explanation hope you can read between lines ... there is so much reading between the lines with fti's posts and there have been times when he hasn't answered my posts and I take that to mean 'you are not trying hard enough' and I search again .. mostly inside myself and the answers come.

now back to dancing..

joy
  • #5,388
  • Edited 2:41am Aug 18, 2008 2:05am | Edited 2:41am
Quoting jest1081
hey fti,

you shouldnt feel offended. You see, us newbs come frm a different school of knowledge. To us Macds, candle patterns, rsi, triple timeframe anlaysis, MAs and all its junk. Thats TA to us, or whatever makes of it.

You have opened a new window to the old perspective, for us. Running with price realtime, thats new. Most of us used to trade 'Signals', none of us have the 'feel', remember the books taught us to detest 'feelings'.

Why did i say elliot waves was the closst thing? Coz its the only reference that i have that have any real meaning to TA before i read your thread. The rest are entirely new to me. Tearing, dancing, etc.

anyway, why is it TA? You have taught us not to analyse but instead follow. Well i'd agree if its called technical trading. Just an opinion. You can get the whips prepared if you think im off.

regards
jest
Good morning fti and everyone...
Just wake up and saw the bear around and being monday i am planning to get back to the sack...and I could not avoid to send this message.

Jest, please take a look to this...actually let's read together a thousand time these 2 messages...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57639&page=163

messages # 2431 and 2432

There you will see how to think/feel PA...these 2 messages are extremly important to understand what fti is trying to tell us...and explain why he has been totally right on complaining about our inability to listen to him and the market. Yes, we are not listeining to him nor the market...to listen we must abandon all: indicators, S/R, levels and pattern predictions...it is just the candles and ourselves: the bears, the bulls and the traders.

I am returning to my original way of trading....you take it from there.

Me? Being so out of step, I am totally embarrased! Ok...I go back to the seat.

Regards,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #5,389
  • Aug 18, 2008 2:30am Aug 18, 2008 2:30am
LuSan... did you get my email requesting missing pdf's

joy
  • #5,390
  • Aug 18, 2008 2:40am Aug 18, 2008 2:40am
Quoting joypips
LuSan... did you get my email requesting missing pdf's

joy
Sorry...I forgot...I own a paper copy of Livingston...there are not pdf...
Just in case, Livingston is just for general knowledge and inspiration...he was feeling the market on his own way as I remember now.

Regards
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #5,391
  • Aug 18, 2008 2:51am Aug 18, 2008 2:51am
Quoting luSan
Sorry...I forgot...I own a paper copy of Livingston...there are not pdf...
Just in case, Livingston is just for general knowledge and inspiration...he was feeling the market on his own way as I remember now.

Regards
Thanks anyway LuSan

Can anyone help me with the missing files that fti referred to in post 1561... I didn't ask for them before because there was too much to absorb

But now that I am more advanced I would appreciate someones help.

joy
  • #5,392
  • Aug 18, 2008 3:35am Aug 18, 2008 3:35am
Quoting fti
In Memory of Teng Li Jun.

The moon reps my heart.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bv_cEeDlop0

How can you explain.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzd2kUosrds

Honey sweet smiles.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SE-HlEG9m7I

Thousand Words.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_L2mwehCKq0

Goodbye My Love.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q13XsdfpcHA

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-Mraii8OWE&NR=1

I only care for you.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N72dsXD2GdM

Apologies
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxbDwPq4XDs

I gotta stop there's a few hundred songs.
The thing I feel most sorry for her , was after that problem ,she never got married all her life. Thats the problem with Fu Zhou families, We don't have full freedom yet, even until this day and age. One of the negatives to culture and heritage.


regards
Hi, Mr FTI & All, I think I know the person supposed to get married with Teng Li Jun. It's very very pity that some people cannot live FREELY without being chained by wealth, fame and foolish (to me) loyalty to family relationship.

Live is a journey to me, and want it to be : "No Scare during the journey and No Regret at the end of it" . However, everything means differently to everyone, and it's easier said than done.
  • #5,393
  • Aug 18, 2008 3:55am Aug 18, 2008 3:55am
Quoting fti
Hi All,
many request for me to comment on your rigidities.
I am sorry, there is much mis-communications.

When Have i ever presented to cut after 100 pips and the likes.
You want to be rigid , then its your choice.

I said dance the rhytym, then apply appropriate MM.

Some of you are so engrossed with levels , I can't see How you can dance.

And also David is so worried about levels that he can't dance.

Look I took profits of my Eur yesterday at 1.4855
then I went short Eur again after that at 1.4830.
So am I stupid or what?
Later I appied attack seq at 14810/15 zone.
Guess where I took profits.

Why you people so rigid?
I tell you why, you people have little conidence of you ability to dance.
It is that which you need to focus, not the MM. The MM is only a tool to help yourposition average. You dance bad, and you average to the poor house.


regards
Hi Mr FTI & All,

The sentence highlighted in blue really hit me because it is so accurately stated. And I also think that one main reason most (me also) failed in trading because we don't REALLY ABSOLUTELY BELIEVE that the particular method/stye of trading we use will DEFINITELY EVENTUALLY brings in profit or ended with profit. We tend to lose faith during drawdown when trading a style/method. However, easier said than done again !

regards,
  • #5,394
  • Edited 4:08am Aug 18, 2008 3:57am | Edited 4:08am
lusan. thanks!

again some questions, comes to mind. pls bear with me fti and all. forgive my stupidity.

from the conv
fti mentioned rescues, 35mins after scouts failure.

fib progression for rescues : 3,8,21...
fib progression for attacks : 2,5,13...

then fti said, that we should use a 1,3,3 attack
and, 1,5,5 for rescues. I dont get it?

anyway im quite clear abt the surrenders, i've done it plenty of times, they're very painful to take. Im talking abt failed attacks. how do we manage em, i have an idea but i wanna know how fti and the likes of you manage em.

how are ur attacks skewed like? anyhow?

apologies all, im my best trying to understand here. i love the techinque, im so used to winning that im afraid that i dont have contingencies when it comes to a point where i start to lose, burn out... there are so many ways to skin a chicken, it doesnt take much for us to cut our hands too. Im sorry if im being rigid, but right now i really wanna understand e management more dancing aside. i understand rescues, from what is being shared, now i need to know how to face up a bad attack.(due to bad dancing)
  • #5,395
  • Aug 18, 2008 5:12am Aug 18, 2008 5:12am
Hi ! Mr FTI & All,

I found I have more white hair after reading this valuable thread,

The "dance" , many times it seem that I get it, but when further thought of it, I lost it. However, at least I learnt what kind of mindset should be when trading looking at the chart : No prediction, focus on the last PA to feel the flow, absolutely nimble to react (rescue? attack? reverse? rescue/attack again? , etc until we win the battle), and absolutely no rigidity as to price level, amount of lost (this is with sufficient capitalization) & profit we get during the battle, treat it as nothing more than a number.

Is the "feel" & "dance" beyond language description ? like we are unable to tell/explain 100% what is "sweet" except to experience the taste ?

regards.
  • #5,396
  • Aug 18, 2008 5:22am Aug 18, 2008 5:22am
Quoting Billionaire
Hi ! Mr FTI & All,

I found I have more white hair after reading this valuable thread,

The "dance" , many times it seem that I get it, but when further thought of it, I lost it. However, at least I learnt what kind of mindset should be when trading looking at the chart : No prediction, focus on the last PA to feel the flow, absolutely nimble to react (rescue? attack? reverse? rescue/attack again? , etc until we win the battle), and absolutely no rigidity as to price level, amount of lost (this is with sufficient capitalization) & profit we get during the battle, treat it as nothing more than a number.

Is the "feel" & "dance" beyond language description ? like we are unable to tell/explain 100% what is "sweet" except to experience the taste ?

regards.
well, maybe, just maybe u've summed it up lah. lol.

i just think the teacher has become a bit fiesty as of late, proly due to our inability to grasps his teaching even after various examples. Im starting to believe that its impossible to learn this unless i get personal training from him. sigh.

anyway, i think the loss of several prominent members and some who has silently dissappeared to may have affected him, he's quite attached to a few of the veterans here and now the've gone. im just speculating tho, but if i were in his shoes i'd be affected too. aiya, what to do....
  • #5,397
  • Aug 18, 2008 5:48am Aug 18, 2008 5:48am
Just a exercise for everyone, it will be interesting to see everyones views

given these two charts for the euro (or your own).

Whats the trend daily and other, are you Dollar bull or bear and why.
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  • #5,398
  • Aug 18, 2008 6:20am Aug 18, 2008 6:20am
Quoting Billionaire
Hi ! Mr FTI & All,

I found I have more white hair after reading this valuable thread,

The "dance" , many times it seem that I get it, but when further thought of it, I lost it. However, at least I learnt what kind of mindset should be when trading looking at the chart : No prediction, focus on the last PA to feel the flow, absolutely nimble to react (rescue? attack? reverse? rescue/attack again? , etc until we win the battle), and absolutely no rigidity as to price level, amount of lost (this is with sufficient capitalization) & profit we get during the battle, treat it as nothing more than a number.

Is the "feel" & "dance" beyond language description ? like we are unable to tell/explain 100% what is "sweet" except to experience the taste ?

regards.
Hi,
Thanks for the white rose.
It is not necessary, not on your avatar.

Thanks for the gesture, but you may have misundertood. I am not .

regards
  • #5,399
  • Edited 6:44am Aug 18, 2008 6:23am | Edited 6:44am
hello Fti & all
I use Fti sentance (follow never lead)
in the daily eur/usd ithink we still have way down(bull usd)
but in my 5m chart I see that there a retrace i,m wating till it say where she want to go??

Regards
  • #5,400
  • Aug 18, 2008 6:47am Aug 18, 2008 6:47am
I am going to say something many have said before:

"I will re-read the thread again"

regards,
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