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New Expert Advisor PROFIT FACTOR 19.39

  • #21
  • Aug 15, 2008 3:02pm Aug 15, 2008 3:02pm
Quoting mrgreen
And just what exactly was I supposed to contribute - accolades

Get real sport - you screwed up your testing. You need to quit being so thin skinned.

SPORT, now thats funny! Reminds me of a college prof that I had. I wasn't really looking for much just an explination of the profit factor. I knew less then one was bad yet had never seen one of this high over any period of time short or long.

But please, tell me about how you use PIPBOXER or something like that and that is your entire career full of riches and travel and time travel.
  • #22
  • Aug 15, 2008 3:20pm Aug 15, 2008 3:20pm
Quoting jyett77
If I am doing it so wrong then what is the magic answer? Prove to me that backtesting wil EVER work better then forward or live tests! I was asking if a profit factor could sustain that high thats all. My EA isn't different then anyone else on here trying to make it work.
Backtesting is not better than forward testing but, it's a helluva lot faster and a whole lot cheaper. There are appropriate and responsible ways to backtest. You can forward test on old data if you shield a percentage of your data from development and optimization runs.

Your EA isn't different than the others and that's part of the problem. You can't learn to play golf by playing with someone worse than you. Trading is the same way. I would say that 9 out of every 10 "brilliant" systems I developed ended up in the trash can. Keep chipping away and you'll eventually find something that is both, rewarding and worth the wait.

My first piece of advice would be to dump metatrader.
  • #23
  • Aug 15, 2008 3:32pm Aug 15, 2008 3:32pm
Quoting philmcgrew
Backtesting is not better than forward testing but, it's a helluva lot faster and a whole lot cheaper. There are appropriate and responsible ways to backtest. You can forward test on old data if you shield a percentage of your data from development and optimization runs.

Your EA isn't different than the others and that's part of the problem. You can't learn to play golf by playing with someone worse than you. Trading is the same way. I would say that 9 out of every 10 "brilliant" systems I developed ended up in the trash can. Keep chipping away and you'll eventually find something that is both, rewarding and worth the wait.

My first piece of advice would be to dump metatrader.

Fair Enough. Whats wrong with metatrader4? Because it isn't mutithread? I have develped stuff for MBTrading also using C# but they suck as bad as the next guy. I used OANDA before and they have a moving spread that just turned retarded. One minute it is .9/.7 next it is 40 with no actual news to motivate that change.

The EA I have been developing has been a work in progress. Most the time it does good for a while and then craps out. I expect this run to be no different, but still have to prove it.

What type of systems do you trade/use? What platform?
  • #24
  • Aug 15, 2008 6:40pm Aug 15, 2008 6:40pm
Hi Jyet77,

I like to see thing in positive way. No matter it's wrong or right. we just keep learning. Either easy way or hard way.

You have your personal reason not to share everything. that's fine.

Looking at your excell results, just quite interesting as I see:

each trade you set 10 pips tp
each trade quite big lot: 1.0
severals trade taken at same time with same big lot.
your EA I can consider very aggresive type
which conventional MM is not follow(that's fine) for trial..
when close it closeall...not sure you close base on total profit or time or indicators driven...

Thanks for sharing whatever you want to share...surely other people will learn something..keep posting your EA progress..I like to see trades that different from others...some crazy idea give crazy results..think outside the box..because not many people think inside the box really success..some failed too...

For people with negative feedback, thanks too because we sure will learn from their feedback, somehow..

I am experimenting some crazy idea too...not really follow normal MM or R:R
as my another account is following that and not in real success too.


my 2 pips.
  • #25
  • Aug 15, 2008 6:51pm Aug 15, 2008 6:51pm
Quoting philmcgrew
.......
My first piece of advice would be to dump metatrader.
Phil - I'm just curious - what do you see as being wrong with MetaTrader?

Thanks,
David
  • #26
  • Aug 15, 2008 6:57pm Aug 15, 2008 6:57pm
Quoting Ronald Raygun
Perhaps I should clarify:

ROI ultimately is the only metric an investor will care about. "If I give you $100, how much will I get back?"

Net Profit is a part of that, it really should be Net Profit / Deposit.
Ronald, I don't disagree, but I prefer Profit Factor to ROI, because it takes MM out of the equation.

For example, Trader A's annual ROI is 100%, B's is 50%. But A is risking 5% of his capital on each trade, B only 2%. I would argue that B's system is more efficient than A's. B could equal A's ROI by simply increasing position sizes to 4%. Now he is achieving the same ROI, but with less risk per trade.

PF gives a direct measure of expectancy: return divided by drawdown.

Just my 2c.

David
  • #27
  • Aug 15, 2008 7:06pm Aug 15, 2008 7:06pm
Quoting jyett77
Hi everyone!

Here is my latest test of V4 of my EA. Forgive the spread sheet. I took this route because the Paramaters are proprietary for now. Don't flame me for making this up. I have the real back test and FORWARD test for the exact time frames to prove it.

As soon as I can get the .html report to black out my paramaters i will post it.

Anyhow, what do you think? Can this sustain over time? I have been working on this for over 1 year and hope I am getting close. Any suggestions?

jyett77
Jyett77, some of my thoughts on systems and performance metrics here, if you're interested.

I'm afraid I must agree with Phil, anything with a PF > 2 makes me query the statistical validity of the result. With a PF > 5 you could compound your gains to turn $1k into $1b in a very short time. Not too many traders achieve that.

Good luck, anyway,
David
  • #28
  • Aug 15, 2008 11:28pm Aug 15, 2008 11:28pm
Quoting hanover
Jyett77, some of my thoughts on systems and performance metrics here, if you're interested.

I'm afraid I must agree with Phil, anything with a PF > 2 makes me query the statistical validity of the result. With a PF > 5 you could compound your gains to turn $1k into $1b in a very short time. Not too many traders achieve that.

Good luck, anyway,
David

That is how I started the post. I just wanted to know if a profit factor of 19 was sustainable. I don't use the strat tester that much. I wasn't sure if 1.5 or so was normal because when I optimize this the PF is at 1.52 but the data has mismatch errors. I am not sure what that all means but I do know that over a years time It started with 3k and had around 17k If I remember right by the end of the trial.

Anyhow. I will post later on long term results. Trust me, I will be the first to say if it failed and then everyone can say I TOLD YOU SO.

jyett
  • #29
  • Aug 17, 2008 1:16am Aug 17, 2008 1:16am
Quoting nanningbob
So you have an EA that makes money, are you bragging? What good does that do for the traders here? Are you planning on selling it? Last year I doubled a 5000 demo account. What good did that do for you?
or you for that matter
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #30
  • Aug 17, 2008 3:46am Aug 17, 2008 3:46am
just sharing

Met and known an fx trader who never has any ea but now driving a ferrari, gt2 porsche, vacation houses thoroughout the world, sometimes trading on his lovely mega yatch or while jetsetting on his gulfstreamV.

Down to earth, low profile, humble......always a coward towards market coz to him the market is too huge for him to impress his views on the it. So money management, he is smart on that by being a coward. year in year out making in excess of normal roi

Living pretty nice live

Stick with your belief and have faith
  • #31
  • Aug 17, 2008 4:19am Aug 17, 2008 4:19am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
or you for that matter
Actually I have. You can read about my journey with an EA at:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=1#post2169294 The good and the bad about 40 pages worth. I have many people trying it and showing some success. Nothing is hidden. Their suggestions and advice have helped make it a viable EA. We have been testing it for almost 9 months and we are about to go live from our demo testing. So nothing is hidden.
  • #32
  • Aug 17, 2008 2:23pm Aug 17, 2008 2:23pm
Quoting jyett77
Thats why I didn't actually post the file. I knew I would get flamed even more.

Here is the deal. All I was wondering is if the EA could sustain a profit factor of over 19 because I have never seen that before. Also I rarely rely on backtesting because it isn't accurate.

People can look at the orders and say what they want. I have never even seen a Expert that ever made any money in the long run ever so if someone actually has one prove it.

That beind said, if it did actually work then no I wouldn't sell it. What would be the point. You could make more money off of the EA then you ever could selling it. Other then helping people out there wouldn't be a need for selling it.
I may be a little slow to catch on, but I'm still not sure exactly what it is that you do want. Is it help, feedback, recognition of your accomplishment, or what?

As I said before, with the proper approach, people here are willing to assist you.

People tend to get flamed for making bold claims of discovering a way to produce huge profits from EAs - especially when using a bragging attitude.

Oh well, that's the price you have to pay to try something new. Keep going.

pd
  • #33
  • Aug 17, 2008 11:00pm Aug 17, 2008 11:00pm
Quoting PistolDave
I may be a little slow to catch on, but I'm still not sure exactly what it is that you do want. Is it help, feedback, recognition of your accomplishment, or what?

As I said before, with the proper approach, people here are willing to assist you.

People tend to get flamed for making bold claims of discovering a way to produce huge profits from EAs - especially when using a bragging attitude.

Oh well, that's the price you have to pay to try something new. Keep going.

pd
Really I was trying to figure out the mt4 strat tester. Best I can come up with is that it is a POS. I have downloaded the data set and get crazy mismatch errors, it doesn't run for th full time frame I set and the optimization only messes up the previous good results.

Bottom line, Not gonna even use the strat tester and go back to FORWARD test only. It is the only real results anyhow.
  • #34
  • Aug 20, 2008 10:50pm Aug 20, 2008 10:50pm
Quoting akukaya
Hi Jyet77,

I like to see thing in positive way. No matter it's wrong or right. we just keep learning. Either easy way or hard way.

You have your personal reason not to share everything. that's fine.

Looking at your excell results, just quite interesting as I see:

each trade you set 10 pips tp
each trade quite big lot: 1.0
severals trade taken at same time with same big lot.
your EA I can consider very aggresive type
which conventional MM is not follow(that's fine) for trial..
when close it closeall...not sure you close base on total profit or time or indicators driven...

Thanks for sharing whatever you want to share...surely other people will learn something..keep posting your EA progress..I like to see trades that different from others...some crazy idea give crazy results..think outside the box..because not many people think inside the box really success..some failed too...

For people with negative feedback, thanks too because we sure will learn from their feedback, somehow..

I am experimenting some crazy idea too...not really follow normal MM or R:R
as my another account is following that and not in real success too.


my 2 pips.

Actually it has built in MM with scaling lot size, profit targets, account at risk and close a certain level gain feature. The orders are scaled in and out.

Good luck with yours as well.
  • #35
  • Sep 6, 2008 1:04am Sep 6, 2008 1:04am
Yeah I know, it cant be done.

Ha! is all I have to say. 150% rate on return in 4 days? Yeah, been there done that.
  • #36
  • Sep 6, 2008 1:24am Sep 6, 2008 1:24am
Well we have a lot of FF heavy hitters weighing in on this thread. And though I have my own opinions about this discussion, I choose to keep them to myself for once.

The entertainment value of spectating is a nice change of scenery for me.
  • #37
  • Edited 8:31am Sep 7, 2008 8:10am | Edited 8:31am
there is not enough data to say it can or can't continue. I can tell in about 10 seconds based on a strategy if it will work or not. good Eas' require mtf , multi indicator, multi mm, and maximum modeling. This looks like curve fitting with variable get in and get out strategy.. any live ea will gettin eatin up unless you have steel balls with that type of strategy....
From my experience, any weakness in an ea on any of these parameters and the market will find the weakness and destroy your account..
also, why some one would spend more than a week in live testing (let alone 9 months) and test to make a profit with an ea is bewildering.
I looked at your viable ea "nanningbob"".....and I can tell you with certainty that your gonna wake up one morning and see your account wiped out.
  • #38
  • Sep 7, 2008 9:15pm Sep 7, 2008 9:15pm
Quoting 4XWeezal
there is not enough data to say it can or can't continue. I can tell in about 10 seconds based on a strategy if it will work or not. good Eas' require mtf , multi indicator, multi mm, and maximum modeling. This looks like curve fitting with variable get in and get out strategy.. any live ea will gettin eatin up unless you have steel balls with that type of strategy....
From my experience, any weakness in an ea on any of these parameters and the market will find the weakness and destroy your account..
also, why some one would spend more than a week in live testing (let alone 9 months) and test to make a profit with an ea is bewildering.
I looked at your viable ea "nanningbob"".....and I can tell you with certainty that your gonna wake up one morning and see your account wiped out.

Thats cause you don't know any better. I understand that everyone thinks that they have the more knowledge and such. 9 months of testing doesn't prove anything more then 1 week. Why? Because there is always the unknown. The very best that you can hope for is proper funding of account, good money management, and an expert that works most of the time. When it doesn't work, then you have a way or multiple ways to cut losses and then continue on with your wins. Anyone that says more indicators is going to be the key is pipe dreaming.

The market is as much random as anything else and no matter what cannot prove randomness other then it will occure. If indicators equals profit then I would just line all of them out on the screen, when most matched place an order. That will just make you pissed when you find out that you have loosing trades still.

I work my EA like others do or at least should. Money management will keep it alive and working fine. All forward test and not back test other then the initial report. I know that it won't do 19.39 for ever, but keep in mind that anything above 1 means making money.
  • #39
  • Sep 8, 2008 10:35pm Sep 8, 2008 10:35pm
hey, run your 19 .39 until your blu in the face...get rich on me for that matter. Heck, maybe if your lucky you ll even sell it to someone --- which I think is the point of the title of this thread. so the market it is random...whoopde do. Then use your indicators to use randomness and take the indicators that give you a higher ratio. Its not like we all sit there and go.. I think the market is going to do this today...
or macd has some type of funky look. It doesn't work that way.
  • #40
  • Sep 9, 2008 10:37am Sep 9, 2008 10:37am
Actually it wasn't the point. I have no intentions on selling it. There would be no point.

I should have put a different title to the original post. I was wondering if you could sustain a high profit factor is all. They you get all the people who insist that it cant be done.

The reality is, people don't want others to succeed, they just are mad when there own EA doesn't work.

I have been testing on a live account as well as a demo before this. The strategy is solid because it doesn't care what direction the market moves.

So. UP/DOWN/SIDEWAYS it will continue to make money. That is until it doesn't.
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