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Lusan's trade Journal

  • #181
  • Aug 13, 2008 4:21pm Aug 13, 2008 4:21pm
Profit: -1.0 % ROE
A very normal day: bad start ended with an uphill battle saving the day...

The news my friends...they are killing me...What is stopping from turning off the Computer?..
I think I will start going for a walk 10 min before any news...that is my new strategy...
Clearly I am dealing with psychology here...The right skew for this type of dance would be 1-2-3-5-8...the last trade have to big large. Remember
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #182
  • Aug 14, 2008 8:09am Aug 14, 2008 8:09am
What is going on?...I stay out until the news are out...This is my trend analysis for the day and possible for the rest of the week.

  1. Long term Dollar bull
  2. Pullback ongoing toward 5000 today
  3. Bullish dollar flag
  4. Short term 1H bearish
  5. If 4826 breaks then long term bull returns and we buy dollars
  6. If 5088 breaks then major trend reversal and we sell dollars

So either (1) stay out or (2)dance bearish...Actually considering that we have another news coming out and the session will be brief and 5000 is only 75 pips away, unless there is a major news impact at 10:30 am, I will not trade today....I like the idea of formally on writing analysis the day and deciding on the trading strategy.

Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #183
  • Aug 15, 2008 8:21am Aug 15, 2008 8:21am
So it happens..I trades the exit fromt he congestion...I counted waves with a scout set PT at 40 and I had to reenter...I ride the 2345 waves..Last exit was not premature but I want to go to bed and position could not be left open on wave 5...20 min later it reverted.

Note: I was not watching these trades until wave 5. It was an overnight position. So the second entry was forced as I could not babysit.

Next time?
1. Trust the analysis. Enter prior to wave 1
2. No PT but collection at conclusion of 5.

Profit: 90 pips
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Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #184
  • Aug 15, 2008 8:26am Aug 15, 2008 8:26am
Quoting luSan
So it happens..I trades the exit fromt he congestion...I counted waves with a scout set PT at 40 and I had to reenter...I ride the 2345 waves..Last exit was not premature but I want to go to bed and position could not be left open on wave 5...20 min later it reverted.

Note: I was not watching these trades until wave 5. It was an overnight position. So the second entry was forced as I could not babysit.

Next time?
1. Trust the analysis. Enter prior to wave 1
2. No PT but collection at conclusion of 5.

Profit: 90 pips
next time it will complete on 3rd wave or do a false breakout to trick you..

be open minded.
  • #185
  • Edited 10:47pm Aug 15, 2008 8:36am | Edited 10:47pm
Quoting piccolo
next time it will complete on 3rd wave or do a false breakout to trick you..

be open minded.
Actually,

1) Although it looks like a break out it was not, but a retracement on wave 2...see the chart...so the entry was exactly what I wanted...hey..I am not supposed to chase PA..I went short because 1H bullish...I entered at the high of wave 2, right?

2) Correct, 3 wave turn could happens...but I was sleep...so no skew but long sword

Regards
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #186
  • Edited 11:29am Aug 16, 2008 10:34am | Edited 11:29am

I am reviewing all my trading strategies, skews, and approaches. Because I find day trading psycholologically demanding, I mantain a set of laws to help me stay present. I found that whenever I violated these laws, PA punished me. So here are my latest version of the law.


10 Day Trading Commandments


You shall
1. Never trade during news announcements
2. Never trade with the hope of winning
3. Never trade without a relaxed and clear mind
4. Never trade against the 1H trend
5. Never trade more than 1 pair
6. Never rescue against a major impulse
7. Never trade the normal troops overnight
8. Never leave the normal troops unattended
9. Never chase price action
10. Be Patient.

Note: Some might wonder about my reasons for uneding evaluation of this strategy and making public my trades. Why not just trade or dance and stop considering? I evaluate the strategy because it is my way of learning and I have a very sketical mind. All must be questioned, made explicit and made clear. When questioning stops, then all learning stops.

I need clarity to trade with confidence. I post my trades so others can give me feedback and show me places when I went wrong. For statistical reason, a good profit is NOT a good feedback.

Lately my trading have been very erratic as a reflection of a seeking mind and all seeking minds are confused mind, right? However, I am happy about it. I have not hurt my base account and I very please with my chaotic learning.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #187
  • Aug 16, 2008 11:13am Aug 16, 2008 11:13am
Adorable Journal.

I sense from your statement that you have a strong character. Keep it up.

By the way, a tips from me: Use as minimum decision-maker as you can. Like what you did now. Hence it's already making money.

What you need right now is to find the market's intuition. Good luck.
  • #188
  • Edited 1:01pm Aug 16, 2008 11:43am | Edited 1:01pm
Quoting goldrushrush
Adorable Journal.

I sense from your statement that you have a strong character. Keep it up.

By the way, a tips from me: Use as minimum decision-maker as you can. Like what you did now. Hence it's already making money.

What you need right now is to find the market's intuition. Good luck.
Thanks for the visit...

Yes, making some $...but I am not into profit making yet, but into understanding...I was extremnly successful at the beginning...and it is now when I begin to see that I was into Simple Elliot wave trading with a 1H-5M-30S time frame approach...I am in the process of expanding into the 1D-1H-5M time frame while keeping the initial approach...Not an easy transition because of the need to switch continously from a very fast to a slow mindset...why am I doing it?....A different market environment: London open to full day both London and New York open...

Still no much has changed but some different rules for the new market environment...

Minimum decision making process"...I totally agree...and that most be decided before turning the computer on and looking at the charts, otherwise we would not know where to focus our attention.

Good luck.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #189
  • Aug 16, 2008 2:23pm Aug 16, 2008 2:23pm
You are very welcome.

I used only Monthly and Weekly Pivot S/R. Those are my main lines for the decision. I used back this indicator, because of "bleeding" myself by testing hundreds or thousands indicators.
For scalping I focused only in the Daily chart. I never bother with what will be happened lower than that, until now.

Maybe learning The Art of Hedging may come in handy for you. It's a good method too. Mostly biggy-banks used this style to protect their profit. But take your time, it's not a 2-3 day then you can do it. Take your time and...

I wish you a good luck then.
  • #190
  • Aug 16, 2008 11:10pm Aug 16, 2008 11:10pm
Oops...after 2 days of evaluating my trading MO and verifying fit's thread.

Conclusions
1. The beginning of this journal gives a very rough picture of his strategy: you consider each 5M bar, my friend.
2. The journal until several weeks ago focused on non impulse market environment, then it went bersek.
3. 5 market environment identified: Short, Long, Short transition, Long transition, and Bear/Bull balance.
4. Minor adjustment on skew, scout direction, and profit target will be enough for the day trading transition.
5. No S/R, no indicators, patterns, nor wave counting are needed.
6. Daily and hourly trend analysis required to help with scouting process. For that analysis, candlestick reading and prior day ranges/limits should be sufficient.
7. Rescue method adjusted to about 7 bar minimum and 5M trend break.
8. Candlestick reading neccessarily: need to pay attention to each 5M bar to take the pulse of the market
9. What is the pulse? It is the bear-bull balance.

so simple...that is hard to believe...now I am just waiting for Monday morning to start dancing with my 5 new strategies...it will be real fun.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #191
  • Edited 5:20pm Aug 18, 2008 11:02am | Edited 5:20pm
Profit: 0.7 % ROE

1D/1H shorts-->so short bias
5M trade
1M help feeling the market.

Applied strategy and most basic approach and in relaxed way. Missed a couple opportunites to end the dance...Exited all positions prior to New York Lunch and because I am tired...-

Missed profit taken?...Sure. This is the first time that I really dance multiple dances with my original MO...Not bad...but I changed my PT...so I go back and I use the old PT approach for non trending days...during trending days, PT will be taken when I percieve PA entering into a 1H congestion.

I am happy with this session. Note that I almost always sold high...that is very good indeed.

Lessons

  1. First time a have multiple dances. I can see at least 3 of them with the beginning of a third one when I stopped. I must remember to more aggresively take profit: at the beginning of my dance steps. Why I did not? because I targetted for 1% profit today and that is rigid...Imagine 1% per dance...too much greed...so I did not reacted fast enough.
  2. Need to slow my entry by 2 min to improve timing. It is too aggresive!

Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #192
  • Edited Aug 20, 2008 10:31am Aug 19, 2008 1:21pm | Edited Aug 20, 2008 10:31am
Profit: -1.1 % ROE

What a great day!
One of my best days...It was a very bad scenarious with my scout behind by 130 pips, against the 5M trend, ending with a outside day reversal...Few days will be worst than this...still fib attack reduced the risk to a minimum...So I could really relax and use this form of attack (1-1-2-3-5-8) without fear...Gosh, I was so relaxed the whole day that it is hard to believe.

Bias: Bull but on a Day doji-I knew it was going to be risk...I need to consider very careful 1D doji days...When that happens I will use 15M as main trend since PA direction is not clear...Something to test.

I pull the plug when I was tired...probably the full book could be recovered...but it would take several hours as US is coming to the close...

Why did not close sooner?...Waiting for the reversal but then PA went above yesterday high...Maybe I should look into seting my trend change line as 0.5(H-L) of yesterday candle...I mean: when PA get to that point I should reconsider that maybe things are reverting...and if exposure I would waited out...(I marked that spot in my image)...I was blinded by the action.

A good strategy for bad days: keep going with your attack and wait to the congestion to execute aggressive rescue operation. Make sure you have enough troop and away from margin call...

Note: These notes are my own exploration into day trading. Why? There are not physicallly available mentors nor book about this things...at least for me-besides I might want to discover this on my own, right?...so I will not commit heavy cash until all these things are ironed out.:nerd:
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #193
  • Edited 5:20pm Aug 20, 2008 10:03am | Edited 5:20pm
Profit: 0.4 % ROE

Yesterday key reversal --> long bias
1H confused me: falling--> closed position, took a break...considered my bull-bear balance line...Bear dollar...> so sell dollar lows...PT @ 15 pips..only 2 waves allowed because of the uncertainty.

PT is rigid!...yes, it will change after resetting my mindset....let me get use to singles then I will go for double...forget about home runs.

Edit: there is another more flexible way to set PT...I will look into it....Also I think that 15M is more than important for me than 1H...that was my original main trend...

I chased PA!...I saw it when I sold the dollar and inmediately closed the trade...I could not allow this bad habit...no chasing...Better to miss the bus than to be in the wrong bus...Note how there was a 15+ drop right there...

Bull-bear line is the mid point of the previous day bar: (L+0.5*(H-L)...I will use it to remind me of a potential transition on bull-bear tendency. Today it confirmed me on my bearishness...It is NOT S/R...But an alarm of potential wind changes.
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Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #194
  • Edited 11:02am Aug 21, 2008 9:41am | Edited 11:02am
Profit: 0.40 % ROE

8:30 and 10:00 and 10:30 am news...Messy day to trade...Almost met my desired profit target but (1) greed and (2) I had to bail out due 10 min before the news go the best of me... Now I do not feel much upside momentum...Either I fight as a bull going against 1D or I am out...So I am out.

Desired daily profit target: above 0.5 % ROE

Odd market...see the 4 dojis priot to the news...Bulls and bears did not know what to do...Staying was plain gambling...
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Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #195
  • Edited 10:13am Aug 22, 2008 7:13am | Edited 10:13am
No trading today because of too many confusing signals. It is Friday. If I take the wrong turn, I will not have enough trading time to protect my book. Besides it is a beautiful outdoor day.

Look at this factors:
1.Prior day-bearish

2.PA facing a wall -bullish
3.PA @ Maginot line - undecided
4.Current 1H bullish
5.Friday morning - Oanda liquid out by 12 hr
6.Bernanke talking in 2 hours


PA seems trapped...so I should wait...but being Friday...there is no time...ah!!

Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #196
  • Edited 10:06am Aug 25, 2008 9:37am | Edited 10:06am
Profit: 0.18 % or 37 pips/troop

Not so hot of a day...Monday

Trading climate:
Day - bearish
Last candle - bullish -dark cloud cover
Likely: bullish or doji

Trend:
1H and 15M bearish...so scout became a bear...Remember 15M rules for me now...I returned to my original ways: 15M-5M-1M...1H and 1D is just climate...the actual dance is whatever is going on...so I was a bear...ggrrr..

tight PT because of (1) ceiling, (2) 10 am news announcement, (3) Monday, and (4) Bank Holiday in London....Remember "when in doubt, you get out."

First attack: Ok
Second attack: premature?...Narrow range and Monday...No time to wait
Third attack: strong impulse from low volatility base...chasing allowed.

Exit too soon: 30 min away from the news make me nervous...Probably we could get as close as 10 min if winning...but...you never know...so I closed the trade and...of course... I saw the bear screaming form another 15 pips.
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Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #197
  • Edited Aug 27, 2008 8:00am Aug 26, 2008 11:10am | Edited Aug 27, 2008 8:00am
Profit: 0.0 % ROE - 0 pips

Trading climate:
1D- bull
1H - bear
15M - bull when I first checked

School day!...News out @ 10 and again @ 2:00 pm...
Action happens between 8:00 and 10:00 am...I missed it. I think I need to allow myself to trade at least up to 20 min before the news...

My mistake?...I traded against 15M...and that is a no-no...I allowed myself to be influenced by 1D...so I passed the period saving the book with 2 rescue operations..And another point: Too late/early enter into the trade..this need to be addressed too.

I ended the day when PA is turning but...(1) news in 2 hrs, (2) New York at lunch, and (3) I am exhausted....Probably it will be in a range until 2:00 pm...So I am out...

I need to remember never to trade against 15M...I will create a check list to remind me
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #198
  • Edited 6:58pm Aug 27, 2008 10:30am | Edited 6:58pm
Let us consider this strategy.

Pro:
1. Attack and rescue - effective way for managing 5M trades.
2. High win rate - 95+ % if you are patient
3. Clear defined actions -

Con:
1. Huge screen time- you must always babysit trades
2. Intense - demand full concentration for several hours
3. Psychologically draining - always in decision mode: Bear or bull?
4. Martingale-type risky - If wrong, gains are easily wipe out
5. London open best time - Impact my sleep
6. Patience and speed - Both are simultaneouly needed
7. Requires to manage the News impact

Conclusion:
The psychological demands are beyond me a this time. I cannot translate this strategy to a more relaxed trading style. Therefore I will move on to a higher time frame. I will close this journal by the end of the week and start another one with my explorations of a slower and higher time frame.

Note: However, I will keep doing my 5M dances striving for a more relaxed style.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #199
  • Aug 27, 2008 1:00pm Aug 27, 2008 1:00pm
Lusan,

I read you post on Fti’s thread, thought I'd post a reply here as to not pull away from the other thread.

Moving up to a higher time frame isn’t necessarily the answer, as you still need to know the direction of the different time frame directions: immediate, short, intermediate and long. Trading the short or intermediate, you’ll want to enter when the immediate is turning your direction. You can trade the higher time frames with success but you’ll time your self with the immediate (NOW) timeframe - where FTI wants to keep focus.

It’s easy to get into the mindset that every time I turn on the screen I should be in a trade, but the opposite is true, we want to enter when price tells us too, and not live and die with every tic.

Trading while away from the screen, brings up a whole different set of concerns, that are totally alien to this approach, so think carefully, tis best to reduce size and widen scope.’

I would suggest studying some Wyckoff , it’s a good foundational basis for price action in wave and consolidation/range analysis.

Good luck in the journey!

a
  • #200
  • Edited 6:59pm Aug 27, 2008 1:16pm | Edited 6:59pm
Quoting auxesis
Lusan,

I read you post on Fti’s thread, thought I'd post a reply here as to not pull away from the other thread.

Moving up to a higher time frame isn’t necessarily the answer, as you still need to know the direction of the different time frame directions: immediate, short, intermediate and long. Trading the short or intermediate, you’ll want to enter when the immediate is turning your direction. You can trade the higher time frames with success but you’ll time your self with the immediate (NOW) timeframe - where FTI wants to keep focus.

It’s easy to get into the mindset that every time I turn on the screen I should be in a trade, but the opposite is true, we want to enter when price tells us too, and not live and die with every tic.

Trading while away from the screen, brings up a whole different set of concerns, that are totally alien to this approach, so think carefully, tis best to reduce size and widen scope.’

I would suggest studying some Wyckoff , it’s a good foundational basis for price action in wave and consolidation/range analysis.

Good luck in the journey!

a
You are correct....

Current plan
Main assumption: Market are fractals. So whatever I learned by watching 5M is probably useful trading 1H.
Long trend: 1D trend
Main trend: 4H
Timing: 1H or 15M
Development size: 100 E/U units
PT @ next S/R or whenever I feel like
Stop: none, mental, maybe rescue on 5M...TBD
Actually this is a dance done on the 4H1H


Thanks again
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
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