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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #2,541
  • Aug 9, 2008 6:04pm Aug 9, 2008 6:04pm
Some resistance for usd/cad
Monthly
Attached Image

Weekly
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  • #2,542
  • Aug 11, 2008 12:03pm Aug 11, 2008 12:03pm
Folks, keep an eye on this pair. If the oil market is shrugging off the potential of disturbance in supply both last Friday and today, a deflationary drop in consumption as a theme is being reinforced.
A general weakness continues in the commodity markets today.
Who really knows how far this could run? Just need to be on the proper side of the trend to make money.
  • #2,543
  • Edited 8:42am Aug 12, 2008 8:12am | Edited 8:42am
My preority to Buy near 1.0617, but if it breaks it's Signal for Sell after retrecmant

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_nmIuQsC9b-...er++usdcad.png
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  • #2,544
  • Aug 12, 2008 12:13pm Aug 12, 2008 12:13pm
possible scenario?
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  • #2,545
  • Aug 12, 2008 12:15pm Aug 12, 2008 12:15pm
Quoting goranFX
possible scenario?


or this...
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  • #2,546
  • Aug 12, 2008 12:20pm Aug 12, 2008 12:20pm
You right goran I bouth at 1.0619, but if goes 23 pips lower I'll be looking break even and I'll be looking for good Sell. Very simple.Thank you
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  • #2,547
  • Aug 12, 2008 12:25pm Aug 12, 2008 12:25pm
Quoting Algirdas
You right goran I bouth at 1.0619, but if goes 23 pips lower I'll be looking break even and I'll be looking for good Sell. Very simple.Thank you

I entered a small long with SL 1.0600 as you, but in doubt
  • #2,548
  • Aug 12, 2008 4:01pm Aug 12, 2008 4:01pm
USD/CAD
Now USD/CAD loosing steem Nort, We bouth at 1.0617, take profit now or wait until 1.0655, but good Sell I see at 1.0673
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_nmIuQsC9b-...er++cadddd.png
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  • #2,549
  • Aug 12, 2008 4:03pm Aug 12, 2008 4:03pm
Past few days Cad went up fast but it didn't retrace very much today. Oil remains going down. This might just be a consolidation before the next leg up. Chart certainly has promise.
Good luck
  • #2,550
  • Aug 12, 2008 4:07pm Aug 12, 2008 4:07pm
My trading time frame is probably longer then yours, just looking to cach a good ride. In and out trading I always get chewed up.
  • #2,551
  • Aug 12, 2008 4:44pm Aug 12, 2008 4:44pm
Quoting foto
My trading time frame is probably longer then yours, just looking to cach a good ride. In and out trading I always get chewed up.
Some days I'm intrested in Intraday, some days Daily, but like EUR/USD I still Short since 1.5500,,,,,,I don't know how it come.....
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  • #2,552
  • Aug 12, 2008 5:06pm Aug 12, 2008 5:06pm
Quoting goranFX
I entered a small long with SL 1.0600 as you, but in doubt
just closed my long for small 20+ pips profit ...will see from here
  • #2,553
  • Aug 12, 2008 7:14pm Aug 12, 2008 7:14pm
Quoting Algirdas
USD/CAD
Now USD/CAD loosing steem Nort, We bouth at 1.0617, take profit now or wait until 1.0655, but good Sell I see at 1.0673
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_nmIuQsC9b-...er++cadddd.png
I'll take 1/2 profit for 40 pips and will move stops to Entry
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  • #2,554
  • Aug 12, 2008 11:25pm Aug 12, 2008 11:25pm
this pair will go down soon

any one agree ?
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  • #2,555
  • Aug 13, 2008 8:08am Aug 13, 2008 8:08am
overall Cad economy is weak. Recent job loss figures do not encourage any quick reversal of GDP in Canada. Couple that with falling commodity prices and weak consumer it is difficult to project anything but either a neutral or dovish monetary policy for the future.

As long as U.S. economy is in bottoming out phase of business cycle, this pair should continue either sideways or upwards. My analysis sugests that is where the probability is.

Technical analysis does not allow for this fundamental dynamic to be included. That is why I mix them.
  • #2,556
  • Aug 13, 2008 1:02pm Aug 13, 2008 1:02pm
Perfect move since 1.0710
Now Short and do not forget to Buy near 1.0615
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nmIuQsC9b-...erver++cad.png
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  • #2,557
  • Aug 13, 2008 2:33pm Aug 13, 2008 2:33pm
Oil prices backed up a bit today, probably attributable to U.S. troops to be used in Georgia for humanitarian aid.
This should actually calm things down in energy. Russia will not be happy campers but they will not directly confront the U.S. military at this time.

Might present an opportunity to go long this pair.
It remains a bit overbought but that may just be the underlieing strength in this pair.
  • #2,558
  • Aug 13, 2008 6:17pm Aug 13, 2008 6:17pm
Quoting Algirdas
Perfect move since 1.0710
Now Short and do not forget to Buy near 1.0615
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nmIuQsC9b-...erver++cad.png
USD/CAD Long Break even
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  • #2,559
  • Aug 13, 2008 7:33pm Aug 13, 2008 7:33pm
Latest report Japans economy is now submerging. With all major ships sinking or sunk exactly what is supposed to keep the price of oil and commodities up?
Does this seem like the backdrop for a continued bull market in commodities? Is it reasonable to believe the analysts pushing 200/barrel are on target?

I would think 80 or below is more sensible.
  • #2,560
  • Aug 15, 2008 2:32pm Aug 15, 2008 2:32pm
Anyone think the rally has exhausted itself here? The chart is starting to look bearish - I think we could see low 1.05 - high 1.04 by the end of next week.
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