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Steviet's Live Trades!

  • #901
  • Feb 13, 2007 4:28pm Feb 13, 2007 4:28pm
  •  markt
  • | Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Would be... Full time trader | 88 Posts
Hi Steve, my demo account is down to the last few £££'s now. Remember, I have traded 8 pairs including gbp/jpy & eur/jpy with a more, lets say aggresive approach. Its been fun, but is my account about to BLOW. I will know in the morning. A good example how not to trade I think!

I believe to that this could be the start of a long run on the GU. If so its "adios" from me. :-( Don't worry I will be tuned in with interest to see how you progress! Back to plan (b)... I must say, its going quite well! :-)

Hey, forget the usd/cad, its a dog on my system too!
  • #902
  • Feb 13, 2007 4:29pm Feb 13, 2007 4:29pm
Quoting monarch
GBP/USD Daily Chart

With the Candle formation shown on the Chart, does it indicate closing your Short and opening a Long?

Thank you.
Hi Ken,

Well, its a doji which means indecision and the market sure has been undecided today

I should have gone short at or around 9600 and would already have pips locked in. I would only go long after a confirmation bullish bar and don't mind taking a small loss if that's the case as this would be a pretty safe trade.

To be quite honest if I had to make a decision now and opening a new trade, I would stay short pending confirmation of market direction. We have had poor US news today which the market seemed to brush off - the only surprise to me was that it retraced so far back to the 9470's.

On my chart (daily bars closing at 10pm GMT), we have had 2 consecutive doji candlesticks. It's very rare to get that on such a large daily ranging pair as GU. I guess we're not alone in not knowing where it's headed next

Sorry I can't be any more help lol

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #903
  • Feb 13, 2007 4:33pm Feb 13, 2007 4:33pm
Quoting markt
Hi Steve, my demo account is down to the last few £££'s now. Remember, I have traded 8 pairs including gbp/jpy & eur/jpy with a more, lets say aggresive approach. Its been fun, but is my account about to BLOW. I will know in the morning. A good example how not to trade I think!

I believe to that this could be the start of a long run on the GU. If so its "adios" from me. :-( Don't worry I will be tuned in with interest to see how you progress! Back to plan (b)... I must say, its going quite well! :-)

Hey, forget the usd/cad, its a dog on my system too!
Hi Mark,

Great to hear plan b is going well - keep your MM in check - that will make or break you.

Actually UCAD will be my best performing pair this month if I can lock in some of this profit on the short from 1.1732 - mind you that's not saying much with this months figures lol.

Catch you soon mate

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #904
  • Feb 14, 2007 6:21am Feb 14, 2007 6:21am
Well, EU was stopped out for minus 84 pips overnight as expected with GU following suit this morning for minus 56 pips.

GU was a result of a mistake I made days ago not going short at around the 9600 level. That one mistake has resulted in over 100 pips being lost and a further 60 not being gained so a very expensive one for me.

Current positions are up around 70 pips so would like to lock in some profit on UCAD at least tonight before they all decide to reverse on me.

Am 800 pips in the hole this month which equates to an account balance loss of around 12.5%. Been a big hit but now EU has finally broken through 3050 so hoping for a close above this level for confirmation.

Overall, am still up 1167 pips from the start but need a few hundred plus pip winners to get me back on track.

Still smiling

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #905
  • Feb 14, 2007 6:59am Feb 14, 2007 6:59am
Steve,

You know i mentioned it yesterday. So, i saw it coming your way but by now you should be used to it anyway.

I hope this movement goes as expected to end the week bullish. This will help put you on the blue at least for the week.

i believe you should be going long come 5pm est. today although there may be a retracement again before the bulls set in fully. Just my opinion anyway.

Take care.

Dollar-Manhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/dollar.gif
  • #906
  • Feb 14, 2007 11:36am Feb 14, 2007 11:36am
Quoting Dollar-Man
Steve,

You know i mentioned it yesterday. So, i saw it coming your way but by now you should be used to it anyway.

I hope this movement goes as expected to end the week bullish. This will help put you on the blue at least for the week.

i believe you should be going long come 5pm est. today although there may be a retracement again before the bulls set in fully. Just my opinion anyway.

Take care.

Dollar-Manhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/dollar.gif
Yup, rules are rules & once in a position I stay in. Good that EU has broken out of that range - will be going long EU & GU tonight. Currently the other 3 trades are up over 170 pips and will be able to lock in some profit on UCAD short later

Looking back over the last two years drawdown has never been over 1000 pips for a month so here's hoping we will now see a bigger range or better still a trend to grab some pips.

Cheers
Steve
  • #907
  • Feb 14, 2007 2:38pm Feb 14, 2007 2:38pm
i read my post again and i was a bit worried that it might be taken the wrong way!

all it really meant is that my risk tolerance is probably a bit lower than yours right now, so what that really means is the way you trade takes more guts than the way i trade!

Quoting steviet
Hi

1. Correlation - you may be right here and if necessary this will be addressed after the year is up.

2. Money management - as you know I trade 5 pairs and use around 2% of account balance on each trade. In reality, the initial stop loss is often under that and this is tightened after day 1 if I'm still in the trade. My biggest loser so far is 98 pips (under 2%) and average loser is under 50 pips (under 1%). You will also have noted that as my balance decreased recently after some losses, so did my trade size. Again, you may be right here and I could be too aggressive but I want to get through the full year live testing before changing anything at all. As you know, its rarely the system that is at fault rather the trader trading it lol.

Thanks for your concerns - duly noted

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #908
  • Feb 14, 2007 2:43pm Feb 14, 2007 2:43pm
Quoting Isotonic
i read my post again and i was a bit worried that it might be taken the wrong way!

all it really meant is that my risk tolerance is probably a bit lower than yours right now, so what that really means is the way you trade takes more guts than the way i trade!
No offence taken

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #909
  • Feb 14, 2007 2:45pm Feb 14, 2007 2:45pm
Again that is what I like to see! If you can bounce back and recover your losses and take out your equity high in the process then you would of passed your first big drawdown and further confirmation you can succeed with this approach!

oh btw before i forget! all my suggestions so far should not be taken as to meddle with your system! they're just pointers for future experimentation. stick to your guns (for another 9 months at least!) - sharpen those pip-shooters, stevie!!!

Quoting steviet
Yup, rules are rules & once in a position I stay in. Good that EU has broken out of that range - will be going long EU & GU tonight. Currently the other 3 trades are up over 170 pips and will be able to lock in some profit on UCAD short later

Looking back over the last two years drawdown has never been over 1000 pips for a month so here's hoping we will now see a bigger range or better still a trend to grab some pips.

Cheers
Steve
  • #910
  • Feb 14, 2007 2:57pm Feb 14, 2007 2:57pm
Quoting Isotonic
Again that is what I like to see! If you can bounce back and recover your losses and take out your equity high in the process then you would of passed your first big drawdown and further confirmation you can succeed with this approach!

oh btw before i forget! all my suggestions so far should not be taken as to meddle with your system! they're just pointers for future experimentation. stick to your guns (for another 9 months at least!) - sharpen those pip-shooters, stevie!!!
Looking positively, will be able to lock in some profits on UCAD in an hour and open position now nearing 200 pips. It's good to see a few winners popping up again & maybe we're just starting to turn the corner. You never know, I may end up end of Feb near break even. If not, no worries, I'm not going anywhere and there will be a few nice runs before the year is out - my pip-shooters are sharpened & ready to go .

Your suggestions are most welcome - after all I'm the noob & you actually know what you're doing lol. I stumbled upon this method whilst going through old daily charts and thought maybe, just maybe I may be onto something here.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #911
  • Feb 14, 2007 3:12pm Feb 14, 2007 3:12pm
Well the way I see it the month is still young and you never what will happen in the next 14 days. heck a few good trade and you will be at break even or more in no time other wise you would be making 10k pips a month.

And you might be on the phone saying "You want me to do what for Berkshire Hathaway" LOL
  • #912
  • Feb 14, 2007 3:15pm Feb 14, 2007 3:15pm
Quoting turbokaos
Well the way I see it the month is still young and you never what will happen in the next 14 days. heck a few good trade and you will be at break even or more in no time other wise you would be making 10k pips a month.
Yep, you never know - my wife even got me 2 boxes of chocolates (yumyum) today & we've been married nearly 16 years
  • #913
  • Feb 14, 2007 4:11pm Feb 14, 2007 4:11pm
OK, another day closes and 3 remaining trades looking good. Now I've locked in a little profit on UCAD it becomes my best pair for the month lol. A dollar neutral or negative day would ensure locked in profits on all these trades....

USDCHF short from 1.2468 (s/l 1.2486 guarantees minus 18 pips)
USDJPY short from 121.16 (s/l 121.46 guarantees minus 30 pips)
USDCAD short from 1.1732 (s/l 1.1699 guarantees plus 33 pips)

New trades......

EURUSD long from 1.3131 (s/l 1.3013 guarantees minus 118 pips)
GBPUSD long from 1.9629 (s/l 1.9444 guarantees minus 185 pips )

Big moves from EU & GU today means we may see a little pullback overnight but hopefully more of the same tomorrow. Once in a while it would be nice to get in on the start of one of these runs and sometimes it happens.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #914
  • Feb 14, 2007 4:35pm Feb 14, 2007 4:35pm
You know Steve, , you are pretty good at using the candlesticks for choosing directional entry when required to do so under your system, so why not utilise that skill on the other side - the exit/reverse. No need to spend any more time on it, but if there was a REALLY obvious reversal formation on the dailies, then exit and reverse.

I realise you don't want to change the system until the 12 months is done, but maybe run a demo account parallel to your live trades, utilise your candle skills on both sides of the trades, and see how it lines up. Cost you nothing to compare....

This 'deviation from the system' may not actually occur very often if you set very high standards for justifying an exit/reversal, but over the long run it might add thousands of piperoonies to the bottom line
  • #915
  • Feb 14, 2007 4:53pm Feb 14, 2007 4:53pm
Quoting Xerof
You know Steve, , you are pretty good at using the candlesticks for choosing directional entry when required to do so under your system, so why not utilise that skill on the other side - the exit/reverse. No need to spend any more time on it, but if there was a REALLY obvious reversal formation on the dailies, then exit and reverse.

I realise you don't want to change the system until the 12 months is done, but maybe run a demo account parallel to your live trades, utilise your candle skills on both sides of the trades, and see how it lines up. Cost you nothing to compare....

This 'deviation from the system' may not actually occur very often if you set very high standards for justifying an exit/reversal, but over the long run it might add thousands of piperoonies to the bottom line
Just an FYI for other readers not for steve to adjust his system

I've allowed this with my variation however only if I get stopped out and there is no existing trade. I am using the "very high standards" judgement to do so. The only one i've done so far is the last big YEN reversal, and it's worked in my favor. Time will tell if this is actually a good idea, i'm doing it with the expectation i'll get screwed over by it.
To be one with the market, you must first be one with yourself.
  • #916
  • Feb 14, 2007 4:56pm Feb 14, 2007 4:56pm
Quoting Xerof
You know Steve, , you are pretty good at using the candlesticks for choosing directional entry when required to do so under your system, so why not utilise that skill on the other side - the exit/reverse. No need to spend any more time on it, but if there was a REALLY obvious reversal formation on the dailies, then exit and reverse.

I realise you don't want to change the system until the 12 months is done, but maybe run a demo account parallel to your live trades, utilise your candle skills on both sides of the trades, and see how it lines up. Cost you nothing to compare....

This 'deviation from the system' may not actually occur very often if you set very high standards for justifying an exit/reversal, but over the long run it might add thousands of piperoonies to the bottom line
Hi Xerof,

Yes, I had this in mind to take a look at in the future. Of course I'm not always right or anywhere close but certainly when GU is trending down for example, a doji seems to be an 80% reversal the next day. On the upside, a doji often just shows indecision and then a continuation or, if it is exhausting you tend to get another doji or shooting star before the reversal down actually occurs.

Often you will not get such a large reversal bar as today so you can get a good portion of any trend - today was almost too much which is why we may see a pause tomorrow although I hope not!

At the moment though it's business as usual but these things are being note for the future.

Thanks for your observations

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #917
  • Feb 14, 2007 4:58pm Feb 14, 2007 4:58pm
Quoting Unforeseen
Just an FYI for other readers not for steve to adjust his system

I've allowed this with my variation however only if I get stopped out and there is no existing trade. I am using the "very high standards" judgement to do so. The only one i've done so far is the last big YEN reversal, and it's worked in my favor. Time will tell if this is actually a good idea, i'm doing it with the expectation i'll get screwed over by it.
It would be interesting to see - thanks for your comments

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #918
  • Feb 15, 2007 3:07am Feb 15, 2007 3:07am
just an off-hand comment, I believe the trending will start in March-April.
  • #919
  • Feb 15, 2007 1:22pm Feb 15, 2007 1:22pm
one good aspect of always being in the market is that, providing your chart reading skills are up to scratch, you will be there to catch the big moves and if managed properly, claw your losses back and surge ahead.

however few people can live with the losing sequences so that's why the majority try to time the market with breakouts, indicators along with pattern reading. i would place myself in that bunch - but with breakouts i will tag along nowadays rather than waiting for pullbacks (like i used to do).

you're in a special group of traders if you can pull this off and from what i've seen so far i believe you can do it! i dunno about 500 pips a month but if you're up by at least 3000 by year end you're doing very well!

that's why i'm always here - i see a great trader in the making (even if you can't see it yet)! good enough to be a professional fund manager with your customer services skills (which nearly all traders don't have btw).

ok now that i've put you on a pedestal, keep it going!!!

Quoting steviet
Looking positively, will be able to lock in some profits on UCAD in an hour and open position now nearing 200 pips. It's good to see a few winners popping up again & maybe we're just starting to turn the corner. You never know, I may end up end of Feb near break even. If not, no worries, I'm not going anywhere and there will be a few nice runs before the year is out - my pip-shooters are sharpened & ready to go .

Your suggestions are most welcome - after all I'm the noob & you actually know what you're doing lol. I stumbled upon this method whilst going through old daily charts and thought maybe, just maybe I may be onto something here.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #920
  • Feb 15, 2007 1:31pm Feb 15, 2007 1:31pm
Quoting Isotonic
one good aspect of always being in the market is that, providing your chart reading skills are up to scratch, you will be there to catch the big moves and if managed properly, claw your losses back and surge ahead.

however few people can live with the losing sequences so that's why the majority try to time the market with breakouts, indicators along with pattern reading. i would place myself in that bunch - but with breakouts i will tag along nowadays rather than waiting for pullbacks (like i used to do).

you're in a special group of traders if you can pull this off and from what i've seen so far i believe you can do it! i dunno about 500 pips a month but if you're up by at least 3000 by year end you're doing very well!

that's why i'm always here - i see a great trader in the making (even if you can't see it yet)! good enough to be a professional fund manager with your customer services skills (which nearly all traders don't have btw).

ok now that i've put you on a pedestal, keep it going!!!
- wow, thanks

Well, it's been a good day so far in steviet land lol. Currently GU down 97 pips (get that out of the way lol), EU up 2 pips, UCHF up 110 pips, UJ up 167 pips & UCAD up 96 pips

Will be able to lock in some profit tonight but because of the big moves today not as much as I'd like - tomorrow is key to lock some more in for the weekend.

I'm so pleased I started this journal - the amount of support & encouragement has been truly staggering - thanks peeps

OK, update later & don't let any dollar bulls out just yet

Kind Regards
Steve
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