Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 266 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #5,301
  • Edited 4:07am Aug 15, 2008 3:53am | Edited 4:07am
Be a little careful now.
a 5 wave completion is seen in the Eur.whether it will extend.
I don't know. Just otta dance it.
It best to realign your size exposures.

Actually, its best to be sq.
Not much of market is expected with our Eur friends on holiday.
Moreover , if the pressure continues, could be in zig zags, so unless you are up to trading ranges, best take a rest . LOL


regards

Inserted Video


Inserted Video


Inserted Video
  • #5,302
  • Aug 15, 2008 4:13am Aug 15, 2008 4:13am
Quoting fti
Be a little careful now.
a 5 wave completion is seen in the Eur.whether it will extend.
I don't know. Just otta dance it.
It best to realign your size exposures.

Actually, its best to be sq.
Not much of market is expected with our Eur friends on holiday.
Moreover , if the pressure continues, could be in zig zags, so unless you are up to trading ranges, best take a rest . LOL


regards

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1l0uU7AgQks
for the benefit of the team. i've attached the image below. I was a little skeptical about trading the last wave, i initially thought that it might be shallow but boy, she went all the way down to 700.

the hourly was harder to count. but it may have reached the last count too imo. Im not sure shorts is still the smart money now.

Further to that, no predictions going forward, just watching from hindsight.

jest
Attached Image
  • #5,303
  • Aug 15, 2008 4:15am Aug 15, 2008 4:15am
Quoting fti
Be a little careful now.
a 5 wave completion is seen in the Eur.whether it will extend.
I don't know. Just otta dance it.
It best to realign your size exposures.

Actually, its best to be sq.
Not much of market is expected with our Eur friends on holiday.
Moreover , if the pressure continues, could be in zig zags, so unless you are up to trading ranges, best take a rest . LOL
[...]
Hi fti,

thanx for the warnings.
I did some dance with the USDJPY lady on the long side.
Now I'm squared.

Had some problems with my self defined max. loss, that I would except before biting the bullet. As the limit was reached, I hesitated and was not able to pull the trigger. To take some loss is somehow against the philosophy of reaveraging. At least the situation turned in my direction. But nevertheless: There is still a lot of work to do on my mindset.

Will take a small rest - taking lunch somewhere downtown - till the US boys will get up ...
  • #5,304
  • Aug 15, 2008 4:35am Aug 15, 2008 4:35am
Quoting jest1081
for the benefit of the team. i've attached the image below. I was a little skeptical about trading the last wave, i initially thought that it might be shallow but boy, she went all the way down to 700.

the hourly was harder to count. but it may have reached the last count too imo. Im not sure shorts is still the smart money now.

Further to that, no predictions going forward, just watching from hindsight.

jest
Hello everyone

Thanks jest...I always have trouble counting those waves.

Thanks fti ... Taken your advice and closed my positions.. good pips to be had today despite eur. holiday.

Have been busy with the olympics (watching not competing)so not much trading for me..spare minutes I spend in archives of this thread..I'm a slow learner, but my account is steadily increasing so I must be doing something right.

MaMood... I was really excited for you when I read of your lightbulb moment, it gives me hope that I might someday achieve that as well.

joy
  • #5,305
  • Edited 4:49am Aug 15, 2008 4:37am | Edited 4:49am
Quoting MaMood
Hi fti,

thanx for the warnings.
I did some dance with the USDJPY lady on the long side.
Now I'm squared.

Had some problems with my self defined max. loss, that I would except before biting the bullet. As the limit was reached, I hesitated and was not able to pull the trigger. To take some loss is somehow against the philosophy of reaveraging. At least the situation turned in my direction. But nevertheless: There is still a lot of work to do on my mindset.

Will take a small rest - taking lunch somewhere downtown - till the US boys will get up ...
hi mamood,

since you have raised this topic, allow me to share with you my little rescue science. LIke you i dont have a deep book. So i will usually will have good bye zone.

From the above you can see that i only have 3 levels of rescue. By the time the loss reaches -100pips. i pull the trigger. The amount imo is good enough to tell you that you are fighting the wrong war, i.e. trend may have changed.

oh remember i dun rescue if i know i am trading against the daily trend.

The fonts in blue can be variable, i dont neccesarily send rescues at 35, 55, 75. it can be anywhere depending on PA. But what i am sure abt is i take all loss at -100pips.

Oh and i dun usually wait till i get to BE. say i need 15pips to break even, i may cut out at 11 or 12. and accept take the rest at a loss. The idea of rescues is to minimise the loss and not to get a positive book. We need to be clear abt this.

attacks is the same too. but i use 3,5 only for attacks. fti pls comment. thx.
Attached Image
  • #5,306
  • Edited 5:23am Aug 15, 2008 4:39am | Edited 5:23am
Quoting joypips
Hello everyone

Thanks jest...I always have trouble counting those waves.

Thanks fti ... Taken your advice and closed my positions.. good pips to be had today despite eur. holiday.

Have been busy with the olympics (watching not competing)so not much trading for me..spare minutes I spend in archives of this thread..I'm a slow learner, but my account is steadily increasing so I must be doing something right.

MaMood... I was really excited for you when I read of your lightbulb moment, it gives me hope that I might someday achieve that as well.

joy
Hi Joy.
Go slow it will come.

Inserted Video



regards

Inserted Video


Inserted Video


Inserted Video
  • #5,307
  • Edited 5:22am Aug 15, 2008 5:11am | Edited 5:22am
Quoting jest1081
hi mamood,

since you have raised this topic, allow me to share with you my little rescue science. LIke you i dont have a deep book. So i will usually will have good bye zone.

From the above you can see that i only have 3 levels of rescue. By the time the loss reaches -100pips. i pull the trigger. The amount imo is good enough to tell you that you are fighting the wrong war, i.e. trend may have changed.

oh remember i dun rescue if i know i am trading against the daily trend.

The fonts in blue can be variable, i dont neccesarily send rescues at 35, 55, 75. it can be anywhere depending on PA. But what i am sure abt is i take all loss at -100pips.

Oh and i dun usually wait till i get to BE. say i need 15pips to break even, i may cut out at 11 or 12. and accept take the rest at a loss. The idea of rescues is to minimise the loss and not to get a positive book. We need to be clear abt this.

attacks is the same too. but i use 3,5 only for attacks. fti pls comment. thx.
i don't agree fully but to some extent.

100 pip loss really depends on size. if its just scout bleeding (which should be only scout at this point), then you should either cut it or rescue when the wave/move is complete according to PA, could be 300 pips down easily but then again, scout should not hurt your book that much.

when you are in with bigger size, some attack/rescue troops caught in the red, then you have to be much more agile than just waiting for your loss tolerance to hit, because believe me.. it will!

for me the most hurting is the downtime.. i manage to get out of losses fine (except last time when i was playing Don Quixote) but then again it can take days..
  • #5,308
  • Aug 15, 2008 5:15am Aug 15, 2008 5:15am
Hi, FTI, guys:

On Aug. 8, besides fireworks in Beijing Olimpics Open Ceremony, we also saw a fireworks in E/U, 5300, 5200, 5100, 5000 all broken in one day, dropped more than 300 pips. Could anyone, ever predict that?

I just don't understand why so many people long E/U when E/U is congesting around 4900. Maybe concentration on 5M chart just blocked your mindset.

One of three basic premises of TA is: "Trend will continue". So, your best assumption is, the trend will go on.

Maybe after such a freefall, short again is risky?

OK, here is the some words from REMINISCENCES OF A STOCK OPERATOR Chapter 5:

"That's all right," said Elmer, looking angry because of
his disappointment. "I know this is a bull market as well as you
do. But you'd better slip them that stock of yours and buy it
back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to
yourself."

"My dear boy," said old Partridge, in great distress "my
dear boy, if I sold that stock now I'd lose my position; and
then where would I be?"

So why square all the time and lose your position?

See you guys next week
  • #5,309
  • Edited 5:46am Aug 15, 2008 5:22am | Edited 5:46am
Quoting piccolo
i don't agree fully but to some extent.

100 pip loss really depends on size. if its just scout bleeding (which should be only scout at this point), then you should either cut it or rescue when the wave/move is complete according to PA, could be 300 pips down easily but then again, scout should not hurt your book that much.

when you are in with bigger size, some attack/rescue troops caught in the red, then you have to be much more agile than just waiting for your loss tolerance to hit, because believe me.. it will!
provided, price do not make any swings. those kinda predicaments usually happens during news period, if i find my scout down a 100pip without retracement, id put the chap to sleep.

usually by the time i reach -80 from scout, im most likely in lvl3 or a very big lvl2 i.e. fib5 or fib8, if this happens there will be no level 3. Remember, the average daily range of eurusd is abt 130-150pips. if u can take ur rescues all the way to that level, then u should be in better shape than i am.

im not sure if ur talking abt cable, but i dont often trade cable, i just monitor her.

Its not hard rescuing as long as you need price to rally back 10-20pips for you, any bigger, you may need to wait multiple swings or even scalp swings, the further you let it bleed the bigger the rescue troop you have to send and that is if you pass on the first rescue, else you will will have to add on an even bigger position in the 3rd level, the snowballing is too big to handle. That MO is similar to leighsww's, if im not mistaken, taking over 100pips in loss before sending rescues.. i apologise if im totally wrong.

What im working towards is to get a book big enough to handle -200pips (this would almost, and i said almost surely result in a no loss book considering Euro's daily range is lesser than that and from my calculation u will need to be able to handle 5 rescue lvls for this). Right now best i can do is 100 without hurting my books, rescues need to be fast, in order for that to happen i dun expect its range to be more than 20pips from BE
  • #5,310
  • Aug 15, 2008 5:35am Aug 15, 2008 5:35am
Quoting jest1081
provided, price do not make any swings. those kinda predicaments usually happens during news period, if i find my scout down a 100pip without retracement, id put the chap to sleep.

usually by the time i reach -80 from scout, im most likely in lvl3 already. Remember, the average daily range of eurusd is abt 130-150pips. if u can take ur rescues all the way to that level, then u should be i better shape than i am.

im not sure if ur talking abt cable, but i dont often trade cable, i just monitor her.

Its not hard rescuing as long as you need price to rally back 10-20pips for you, any bigger, you may need to wait multiple swings or even scalp swings, the further you let it bleed the bigger the rescue troop you have to send and that is if you pass on the first rescue, else you will will have to add on an even bigger position in the 3rd level, the snowballing is too big to handle. That MO is similar to leighsww's, if im not mistaken, taking over 100pips in loss before sending rescues.. i apologise if im totally wrong
one of us has wrong mindset, I can't tell which one it is. you see, I don't snowball loosing positions.. i mean, there has to be something in PA to place a rescue (not just -x pips). so if the move goes 300 (a number it will not reach easily) on E/U against me without giving room to rescue, I won't. So my lvl2 would be there, except I would skip lvl2 and go with lvl3 or 4 to reduce number of pips I need to get to B/E.

I might be wrong, so let's keep the discussion going.
  • #5,311
  • Aug 15, 2008 5:49am Aug 15, 2008 5:49am
Hi All,
many request for me to comment on your rigidities.
I am sorry, there is much mis-communications.

When Have i ever presented to cut after 100 pips and the likes.
You want to be rigid , then its your choice.

I said dance the rhytym, then apply appropriate MM.

Some of you are so engrossed with levels , I can't see How you can dance.

And also David is so worried about levels that he can't dance.

Look I took profits of my Eur yesterday at 1.4855
then I went short Eur again after that at 1.4830.
So am I stupid or what?
Later I appied attack seq at 14810/15 zone.
Guess where I took profits.

Why you people so rigid?
I tell you why, you people have little conidence of you ability to dance.
It is that which you need to focus, not the MM. The MM is only a tool to help yourposition average. You dance bad, and you average to the poor house.


regards
  • #5,312
  • Edited 6:07am Aug 15, 2008 5:51am | Edited 6:07am
piccolo,

this is what i mean by a 5 level rescue. 2k, thats 2% of a 100k account. by the time i reach level 4, it becomes hard to get a 20pip rescue, so we really have to be nimble in it.

the ideal would be the second one. if ur willing to swallow 5% loss for 100k acc in the books.

fti said before that he went 700(mini) or 70lot or 7mio highest, so i can assume that his trading account is more bigger than 1mio.

so u see. even with 100k acc, u will still need a mini to begin with. (in order to play safe)
Attached Images
  • #5,313
  • Aug 15, 2008 5:57am Aug 15, 2008 5:57am
Hi fti!

As I read your thread i realise my trading is different from yours in only one aspect. You do multiple entries and I only do single ones. Open n lots - close n lots when PA dictates.

For now I havent really got a feel of your scaling in entries so can you please post your trades with volumes from the past 10 hours so I can visualize them on my charts?

Thank you!
  • #5,314
  • Edited 6:16am Aug 15, 2008 6:06am | Edited 6:16am
Quoting resistance
Hi fti!

As I read your thread i realise my trading is different from yours in only one aspect. You do multiple entries and I only do single ones. Open n lots - close n lots when PA dictates.

For now I havent really got a feel of your scaling in entries so can you please post your trades with volumes from the past 10 hours so I can visualize them on my charts?

Thank you!
i think he has placed a few before, you need to track back.

anyway the method follows very closely to the ongoing going trend, i.e. the movement of the ticks in a 5minute frame. so as long as the price keeps heading down we will keep adding up to the skews. Its different from PA based entries which is based more on timing and form.

you will need to read the thread thogoughly in order to get a better picture.

why do you need volumes? hehe. you wanna confirm if he's a big boy issit?
i can confirm for you that a few here can are already quite ready to take a level 5 loss. So you can imagine how big the boss is.
  • #5,315
  • Aug 15, 2008 6:07am Aug 15, 2008 6:07am
Thanks fti

more beautiful music added to my favourites....waves a bit hard to count though

David... were you giving us a lecture will ponder your message. Lost my remin. of stock broker when had to reformat computer.

anyway have a great weekend all and safe trading through n.y.

joy

btw David did you know australia are leading the medal count on a revised per capita basis

joy
  • #5,316
  • Aug 15, 2008 6:14am Aug 15, 2008 6:14am
Quoting jest1081
i think he has placed one before, you need to track back.

Th latest I found are some hints in #5317 but thats way before i can look back in oanda.

fti, could you let me know about your trades in the very recent swing b/w 1,4780 and 1,4700?

Sorry but oanda lets me see only the last 300 bars or so.

Thanks
  • #5,317
  • Aug 15, 2008 6:26am Aug 15, 2008 6:26am
Quoting jest1081
i think he has placed a few before, you need to track back.

anyway the method follows very closely to the ongoing going trend, i.e. the movement of the ticks in a 5minute frame. so as long as the price keeps heading down we will keep adding up to the skews. Its different from PA based entries which is based more on timing and form.
Thats exactly what I do. I had a hard time definig it so you can imagine how glad I was when I found this thread

you will need to read the thread thogoughly in order to get a better picture.
Im on it

why do you need volumes? hehe. you wanna confirm if he's a big boy issit?
i can confirm for you that a few here can are already quite ready to take a level 5 loss. So you can imagine how big the boss is.
Hehe, no. I'd just like to see this scale in sequence u guys are into
Oh and the other thing: I work on the 1min chart
  • #5,318
  • Aug 15, 2008 6:45am Aug 15, 2008 6:45am
Quoting jest1081
piccolo,

this is what i mean by a 5 level rescue. 2k, thats 2% of a 100k account. by the time i reach level 4, it becomes hard to get a 20pip rescue, so we really have to be nimble in it.

the ideal would be the second one. if ur willing to swallow 5% loss for 100k acc in the books.

fti said before that he went 700(mini) or 70lot or 7mio highest, so i can assume that his trading account is more bigger than 1mio.

so u see. even with 100k acc, u will still need a mini to begin with. (in order to play safe)
i lost you here. i base it on the PA and feel.. so my rescue sizes vary depending on how deep in red I am and if there are any good impulses in my direction for a rescue. then i take it.
  • #5,319
  • Aug 15, 2008 6:47am Aug 15, 2008 6:47am
Quoting resistance
Th latest I found are some hints in #5317 but thats way before i can look back in oanda.

fti, could you let me know about your trades in the very recent swing b/w 1,4780 and 1,4700?

Sorry but oanda lets me see only the last 300 bars or so.

Thanks
open a demo with other broker and follow the thread.
  • #5,320
  • Aug 15, 2008 6:50am Aug 15, 2008 6:50am
Quoting resistance
Oh and the other thing: I work on the 1min chart
1minute and 3 minute charts are nice but you need the Larger charts to see the overall picture. Dont get so microscopic and focused on the small ripple that a big wave washes you away
81 traders viewing now