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New Expert Advisor PROFIT FACTOR 19.39

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 14, 2008 10:11pm Aug 14, 2008 10:11pm
Hi everyone!

Here is my latest test of V4 of my EA. Forgive the spread sheet. I took this route because the Paramaters are proprietary for now. Don't flame me for making this up. I have the real back test and FORWARD test for the exact time frames to prove it.

As soon as I can get the .html report to black out my paramaters i will post it.

Anyhow, what do you think? Can this sustain over time? I have been working on this for over 1 year and hope I am getting close. Any suggestions?

jyett77
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls MAGIC_V4.xls   125 KB | 2,295 downloads
  • #2
  • Aug 15, 2008 2:11am Aug 15, 2008 2:11am
Quoting jyett77
Hi everyone!

Here is my latest test of V4 of my EA. Forgive the spread sheet. I took this route because the Paramaters are proprietary for now. Don't flame me for making this up. I have the real back test and FORWARD test for the exact time frames to prove it.

As soon as I can get the .html report to black out my paramaters i will post it.

Anyhow, what do you think? Can this sustain over time? I have been working on this for over 1 year and hope I am getting close. Any suggestions?

jyett77
So you have an EA that makes money, are you bragging? What good does that do for the traders here? Are you planning on selling it? Last year I doubled a 5000 demo account. What good did that do for you?
  • #3
  • Aug 15, 2008 2:51am Aug 15, 2008 2:51am
Quoting jyett77
Hi everyone!

Here is my latest test of V4 of my EA. Forgive the spread sheet. I took this route because the Paramaters are proprietary for now. Don't flame me for making this up. I have the real back test and FORWARD test for the exact time frames to prove it.

As soon as I can get the .html report to black out my paramaters i will post it.

Anyhow, what do you think? Can this sustain over time? I have been working on this for over 1 year and hope I am getting close. Any suggestions?

jyett77
jyett,

You can get some help from lots of people here if you will post your .mq4 file for your EA.

If you are concerned about someone stealing it, then just share the .exe

If you want help developing it without sharing it, there are several people who will do that for a reasonable fee. If you think it has enough potential to spend several hundred $'s for development.

If you are looking for some free help to perfect your moneymaking system without giving anything in return I think you will find that very difficult here.

Standing by,
PD
  • #4
  • Aug 15, 2008 2:56am Aug 15, 2008 2:56am
EA's are plagued with something called luck. Expert programmers admit this in the MT4 Automated Trading Championship.

The information you have given us is quite annoying. It is impossible to give critical opinion.

It's like saying " I shorted EUR USD at 1.6 and look what I have now!"
Gone to a better place
  • #5
  • Aug 15, 2008 3:27am Aug 15, 2008 3:27am
Quoting smikester
EA's are plagued with something called luck. Expert programmers admit this in the MT4 Automated Trading Championship.

The information you have given us is quite annoying. It is impossible to give critical opinion.

It's like saying " I shorted EUR USD at 1.6 and look what I have now!"
Yes it is annoying.. hehe.. i would agree..
  • #6
  • Aug 15, 2008 5:04am Aug 15, 2008 5:04am
Quoting jyett77
Hi everyone!

Here is my latest test of V4 of my EA. Forgive the spread sheet. I took this route because the Paramaters are proprietary for now. Don't flame me for making this up. I have the real back test and FORWARD test for the exact time frames to prove it.

As soon as I can get the .html report to black out my paramaters i will post it.

Anyhow, what do you think? Can this sustain over time? I have been working on this for over 1 year and hope I am getting close. Any suggestions?

jyett77
Your file seems to show about ten positions each consisting of dozens of parallel trades. Doesn't seem like a very conclusive test.
  • #7
  • Aug 15, 2008 6:40am Aug 15, 2008 6:40am
I stopped looking after the first 2 orders.

Same currency pair, same time, 2 seperate sell orders, 2 different prices.

Enough. I am concentrating developing my own.

As an EA programmer, I admit that there is no 1 trading pattern/strategy that can last through several economic cycles. Therefore, a good EA is looking for potential breakout and more importantly: money management.

My 2 cents.
If everyone believes it, it will work.
  • #8
  • Aug 15, 2008 7:47am Aug 15, 2008 7:47am
I would avoid any system with a profit factor in excess of around 2.5. A value of 19 is curve fit and is simply too good to be true. It wouldn't last a month in the real world.
  • #9
  • Aug 15, 2008 2:17pm Aug 15, 2008 2:17pm
Thats why I didn't actually post the file. I knew I would get flamed even more.

Here is the deal. All I was wondering is if the EA could sustain a profit factor of over 19 because I have never seen that before. Also I rarely rely on backtesting because it isn't accurate.

People can look at the orders and say what they want. I have never even seen a Expert that ever made any money in the long run ever so if someone actually has one prove it.

That beind said, if it did actually work then no I wouldn't sell it. What would be the point. You could make more money off of the EA then you ever could selling it. Other then helping people out there wouldn't be a need for selling it.
  • #10
  • Aug 15, 2008 2:22pm Aug 15, 2008 2:22pm
I have EAs with a profit factor of infinity. Do you know how?

Place one trade, take a profit, stop trading forever.

Profit Factor is dollars profit for every dollar loss. A profit factor less than 1 means your EA is losing money.

Personally, the only metric worth following is net profit. All the other values there are 'fluff' values. Meant only to make the end-user feel sophisticated. Don't take this as a personal attack, I'm just laying down my views on the results page.
  • #11
  • Aug 15, 2008 2:25pm Aug 15, 2008 2:25pm
Quoting Ronald Raygun
I have EAs with a profit factor of infinity. Do you know how?

Place one trade, take a profit, stop trading forever.

Profit Factor is dollars profit for every dollar loss. A profit factor less than 1 means your EA is losing money.

Personally, the only metric worth following is net profit. All the other values there are 'fluff' values. Meant only to make the end-user feel sophisticated. Don't take this as a personal attack, I'm just laying down my views on the results page.

Thats what I mean. I have never seen a profit factor that high before. Will it sustain? I use a longer time frame and I know it goes down but my errors go up and the data has tons of holes in it. The only way to know for sure is to forward test, real money. Every EA on the net is a POS, they work for a while or during certain conditions but never for ever.
  • #12
  • Aug 15, 2008 2:35pm Aug 15, 2008 2:35pm
Quoting Ronald Raygun
Personally, the only metric worth following is net profit. All the other values there are 'fluff' values. Meant only to make the end-user feel sophisticated.
Profit factor is a unitless number which describes the succuss of a system quite well and can be applied to any account size. It is not, however, a standalone statistic for evaluating a system.

Net Profit is an account specific term and has little bearing on the accuracy of system. It is most commonly quoted by people pretending to be traders and for impressing perfect strangers on trading forums.
  • #13
  • Aug 15, 2008 2:37pm Aug 15, 2008 2:37pm
Perhaps I should clarify:

ROI ultimately is the only metric an investor will care about. "If I give you $100, how much will I get back?"

Net Profit is a part of that, it really should be Net Profit / Deposit.
  • #14
  • Aug 15, 2008 2:39pm Aug 15, 2008 2:39pm
Quoting philmcgrew
Profit factor is a unitless number which describes the succuss of a system quite well and can be applied to any account size. It is not, however, a standalone statistic for evaluating a system.

Net Profit is an account specific term and has little bearing on the accuracy of system. It is most commonly quoted by people pretending to be traders and for impressing perfect strangers on trading forums.

So what are you saying? That I am hear to just get people fired up? Looks like it worked with you. I regret the entire thread now and just confirmed how useless back testing really is. No data set is perfect, and surely doesn't prove anything for the future. I just happen to be bored last night after watching my forward test make so much money that I tried the strat tester. Oh and by the way, the forward test made more money then the back.
  • #15
  • Aug 15, 2008 2:48pm Aug 15, 2008 2:48pm
Quoting Ronald Raygun
Perhaps I should clarify:

ROI ultimately is the only metric an investor will care about. "If I give you $100, how much will I get back?"

Net Profit is a part of that, it really should be Net Profit / Deposit.

That is exactly what I try and build any EA for cause the rest doesn't matter. On top of that you should include time frame. NET PROFIT/DEPOSIT over what TIME frame.

The strat tester is junk, same data sets will show one thing on a laptop and something entirely different on another computer.
  • #16
  • Aug 15, 2008 2:49pm Aug 15, 2008 2:49pm
another ea writer picks up his spreadsheet and goes home....

Quoting jyett77
So what are you saying? That I am hear to just get people fired up? Looks like it worked with you. I regret the entire thread now and just confirmed how useless back testing really is. No data set is perfect, and surely doesn't prove anything for the future. I just happen to be bored last night after watching my forward test make so much money that I tried the strat tester. Oh and by the way, the forward test made more money then the back.
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
  • #17
  • Aug 15, 2008 2:51pm Aug 15, 2008 2:51pm
Quoting jyett77
So what are you saying? That I am hear to just get people fired up? Looks like it worked with you. I regret the entire thread now and just confirmed how useless back testing really is. No data set is perfect, and surely doesn't prove anything for the future. I just happen to be bored last night after watching my forward test make so much money that I tried the strat tester. Oh and by the way, the forward test made more money then the back.
I wasn't referring to anyone specifically so take it any way you want. You are the one that started a thread on a public forum asking for ideas. You wouldn't be the first guy here who pretended he wanted an opinion when what you really wanted to do was brag about your secret system.

Backtesting doesn't work for you because you are not doing it properly. Arriving at a PF of 19+ and thinking you might be on to something tells any system developer worth his/her salt that you are on the wrong track.

Have a good weekend.
  • #18
  • Aug 15, 2008 2:54pm Aug 15, 2008 2:54pm
Quoting mrgreen
another ea writer picks up his spreadsheet and goes home....

Actually this was just an experiment to see how bad I would get flamed. FACT is, no one will ever believe that you made an EA that makes money because every programmer has an ego issue and thinks they can do better.

Then there are people like you who have no contribution what so ever but rather enjoy being with the crowd on the sidelines acting like they are the real professionals.
  • #19
  • Aug 15, 2008 2:58pm Aug 15, 2008 2:58pm
Quoting philmcgrew
I wasn't referring to anyone specifically so take it any way you want. You are the one that started a thread on a public forum asking for ideas. You wouldn't be the first guy here who pretended he wanted an opinion when what you really wanted to do was brag about your secret system.

Backtesting doesn't work for you because you are not doing it properly. Arriving at a PF of 19+ and thinking you might be on to something tells any system developer worth his/her salt that you are on the wrong track.

Have a good weekend.
If I am doing it so wrong then what is the magic answer? Prove to me that backtesting wil EVER work better then forward or live tests! I was asking if a profit factor could sustain that high thats all. My EA isn't different then anyone else on here trying to make it work.

Money Management, scaling and order selection variables. What is so bad about that. It made great money in one week. Big deal, I have done that lots before. If anyone has actully made one that does it day in and day out that is impressive that is the goal. So, sit back and relax. Next goal is to see if it will actually run all month. Then I can "BRAG" that.

By the way. Nothing personal, Have a good weekend as well. I am just glad I don't have Drill.
  • #20
  • Aug 15, 2008 2:59pm Aug 15, 2008 2:59pm
And just what exactly was I supposed to contribute - accolades

Get real sport - you screwed up your testing. You need to quit being so thin skinned.

Quoting jyett77
Actually this was just an experiment to see how bad I would get flamed. FACT is, no one will ever believe that you made an EA that makes money because every programmer has an ego issue and thinks they can do better.

Then there are people like you who have no contribution what so ever but rather enjoy being with the crowd on the sidelines acting like they are the real professionals.
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
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