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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #107,121
  • Aug 14, 2008 8:18am Aug 14, 2008 8:18am
Quoting Kn1vez
D'oh! I shouldve waited for a close below 205.15. Entered a short then had to close, lost pips! I will come back if I can spot a stronger move.
Looks like the beast has a problem breaking 205.15. we could see a retrace to around 206.20
  • #107,122
  • Aug 14, 2008 8:19am Aug 14, 2008 8:19am
Quoting kinzu
Looks like the beast has a problem breaking 205.15. we could see a retrace to around 206.20
I also forgot about the psych level of 205.00 providing support. From now on I need to draw more lines!
  • #107,123
  • Aug 14, 2008 8:21am Aug 14, 2008 8:21am
GBP/USD can you please kindly short
  • #107,124
  • Aug 14, 2008 8:22am Aug 14, 2008 8:22am
Quoting Eulogy
WHAT IS PRICE DISTRIBUTION OF GJ?????
Am I to assume that somehow you have access to data which perhaps simulates a Chi-Squared distribution curve around each tick?

Obvious????
Assume I have no idea what you are talking about. Tell me how the dynamic and vector for correlation supports your view that GJ and Gold are becoming increasingly and "intensifyingly" positively correlated.
Hey guys i looked at spot gold and GBP JPY. I see there is some correlation in recent prices..but notice that gold has a clear high at Jul 14. GBP/JPY doesn't. So, mathemetical details or not, any correlation is short term or weak.
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Attached Image
  • #107,125
  • Aug 14, 2008 8:23am Aug 14, 2008 8:23am
I am surprised that it is falling before going up to the Fib level at 206.13
  • #107,126
  • Aug 14, 2008 8:35am Aug 14, 2008 8:35am
Quoting Kn1vez
Hey guys i looked at spot gold and GBP JPY. I see there is some correlation in recent prices..but notice that gold has a clear high at Jul 14. GBP/JPY doesn't. So, mathemetical details or not, any correlation is short term or weak.
Spot on Kn1vez. The only problem is that metlife777 keeps claiming that GJ and Gold have since 2000 had a trend of increasing positive correlation and he's using that basis to claim that since Gold has fallen so much its time for a move up which "in his opinion" should push up GJ to his target of 221. He goes as far as to tell other people to get out of their short trade as early as 210. Even more annoying is that he purports to know what he's saying but has yet to refute any of my evidence other than to keep reiterating his "Its obvious that the correlation is intensifying" argument. As of yet he hasn't even demonstrated he understands the basics of what the mathematical definition of correlation is.

Personally I think its more to do with sour grapes after he took a failed long at around 214.50 and got stopped out with a 800+ pip loss.
  • #107,127
  • Aug 14, 2008 8:38am Aug 14, 2008 8:38am
it is shorting now... GBP/USD pls continue
  • #107,128
  • Aug 14, 2008 8:42am Aug 14, 2008 8:42am
Edit: deleted by Empryrium
Buying Tops, Selling dips xP
  • #107,129
  • Aug 14, 2008 8:42am Aug 14, 2008 8:42am
Quoting Eulogy
Spot on Kn1vez. The only problem is that metlife777 keeps claiming that GJ and Gold have since 2000 had a trend of increasing positive correlation and he's using that basis to claim that since Gold has fallen so much its time for a move up which "in his opinion" should push up GJ to his target of 221. He goes as far as to tell other people to get out of their short trade as early as 210. Even more annoying is that he purports to know what he's saying but has yet to refute any of my evidence other than to keep reiterating his "Its obvious that the correlation is intensifying" argument. As of yet he hasn't even demonstrated he understands the basics of what the mathematical definition of correlation is.

Personally I think its more to do with sour grapes after he took a failed long at around 214.50 and got stopped out with a 800+ pip loss.
ROFL. Just remember that correlation does not imply causation. Plus, we are talking about Gold, GBP, and JPY. You have institutional (big bank) traders, big time day traders, and the herd, buying and selling gold as well as the GBP and JPY. Everyone's moves are affected by day to day news. GBP/JPY hitting 220 is a long ways off :-P

I just closed a short at 204.90, anybody else still in?
  • #107,130
  • Aug 14, 2008 8:42am Aug 14, 2008 8:42am
Quoting Kn1vez
I also forgot about the psych level of 205.00 providing support. From now on I need to draw more lines!
In at 204.95. I see 203 today
  • #107,131
  • Aug 14, 2008 8:46am Aug 14, 2008 8:46am
Quoting kinzu
In at 204.95. I see 203 today
Lol i shouldve just stuck with my short at 205.15. I saw an M1 candle jump above the sma 20 and assumed I was wrong, when I was right :-P. I'm down for the day but will come back later on. Lunch time for me, be back later gentlemen.
  • #107,132
  • Aug 14, 2008 8:54am Aug 14, 2008 8:54am
Quoting Kn1vez
ROFL. Just remember that correlation does not imply causation. Plus, we are talking about Gold, GBP, and JPY. You have institutional (big bank) traders, big time day traders, and the herd, buying and selling gold as well as the GBP and JPY. Everyone's moves are affected by day to day news. GBP/JPY hitting 220 is a long ways off :-P

I just closed a short at 204.90, anybody else still in?
Don't worry. Correlation's always just been a weak short term indicator for me. I know from experience that the beast can flip-flop all over the place whilst gold squats there. On the other side GJ has recently been known to have entered hibernation bouts too when Gold starts an Irish jig.

Just as an extra barb, on my original chart the 26 MCC is close to 0. Hopefully metlife777 understands what that means.
  • #107,133
  • Aug 14, 2008 8:56am Aug 14, 2008 8:56am
Quoting kinzu
In at 204.95. I see 203 today
As i said before, if this week closes below 203.80 then chances are next week, 203 will be the least of the long's problems
  • #107,134
  • Aug 14, 2008 8:57am Aug 14, 2008 8:57am
Quoting Kn1vez
Lol i shouldve just stuck with my short at 205.15. I saw an M1 candle jump above the sma 20 and assumed I was wrong, when I was right :-P. I'm down for the day but will come back later on. Lunch time for me, be back later gentlemen.
Sorry G/J is very unpredictable
  • #107,135
  • Aug 14, 2008 9:08am Aug 14, 2008 9:08am
Quoting kinzu
Sorry G/J is very unpredictable
You should trade USD/CAD to see what "unpredictable" means. I think USDCAD is the most unpredictable pair. I never trade it. I Just keep a chart of it open to watch EURCAD's movements.
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #107,136
  • Aug 14, 2008 9:12am Aug 14, 2008 9:12am
Watching the TLs
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Buying Tops, Selling dips xP
  • #107,137
  • Aug 14, 2008 9:14am Aug 14, 2008 9:14am
Anyone else seeing this?
My H1 seems to be indicating overbought territory
My Stoch has just intersected around 73 mark after a rejection from above 80
CCI 30 got a firm rejection right on the 100
  • #107,138
  • Aug 14, 2008 9:22am Aug 14, 2008 9:22am
Quoting Eulogy
Anyone else seeing this?
My H1 seems to be indicating overbought territory
My Stoch has just intersected around 73 mark after a rejection from above 80
CCI 30 got a firm rejection right on the 100
So are you short biased?
Buying Tops, Selling dips xP
  • #107,139
  • Aug 14, 2008 9:23am Aug 14, 2008 9:23am
Quoting Empyrium
So are you short biased?
  • #107,140
  • Aug 14, 2008 9:23am Aug 14, 2008 9:23am
A nice bear flag on 1h chart
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Trade what you see, not what you think.
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