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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #5,201
  • Aug 13, 2008 1:35am Aug 13, 2008 1:35am
Good morning everyone!

My redaings say this is a steady euro bull turn but let's see what London has to say about it.

Is anyone suspecting just a retracement?
  • #5,202
  • Aug 13, 2008 2:01am Aug 13, 2008 2:01am
Quoting MaMood
By the way - Katie Melua was born in Georgia.
Malicious thinks are going on there.
Hope the conflict will be finished soon ...
Yes. Hope so too. Just some thoughts on the E/U. The 2 days big reaction on the E/U could be due to the Georgian/Russian conflict. Now that a ceasefire has reportedly been sign, we could be seeing at least a retracement on the Eur/Usd. The huge down move over the last few days could be an over-reaction thus the E/U might resume its long term trend now.....

Just my 2 cents thoughts....and not trying to be predictive.
Remember....always dance with the market!

Regards,
  • #5,203
  • Aug 13, 2008 2:22am Aug 13, 2008 2:22am
Quoting piccolo
When I go to sleep, sometimes I set take profit levels on my positions, so that if market moves or spikes in my direction and comes back, I don't miss it totally..

yesterday I had -34 pips on GBP/USD and a take profit level of +17. so it exited on the spike. first time i got lucky on a glitch like this.

now imagine stop loss orders..
Hi piccolo,
This is wrong mindset and dangerous MO.
If your analysis is not top notch or if you experience variance in volitility,
you could wake up and not recognise the location where your are.

However of course it is relative and if your NORMAL exposure is 10 to 20 times the position, OR if you have much risk capital for variance risk, then it is your call. But in general, over time, it makes for bad MO and mindset.

regards
  • #5,204
  • Aug 13, 2008 2:23am Aug 13, 2008 2:23am
Good morning ALL!

Warning: I'm really euphoric.

Since friday last week I was most of time a quite reader of this thread, cos I was highly focused on dancing USDJPY. The first time in my trading life I felt the rythm of the dance. And if you really feel the lead of the lady, trading can be so easy.

THANKS to GRANDMASTER fti!!!

Many times before I thought, ok now I got it. I thought, I know what he meant by "feel the rythm". Now I can tell you: No I didn't got it! I was really far from the truth.

Well - it's very difficult/impossible to explain "dancing" by words.

All I can tell you is following:

- forget about news (of course not to reduce exposure in front of major figs)

- forget about trying to get grasp on why the market moves. May be it could be relevant, if you are fighting mid term battles with the Long Sword.

- Don't be predictive. Never! You don't need to be. All you need is PA!! Try to do practice session as often as possible. Try to dance every market. You will recognize, if you really got the rythm of the PA.

- You need a very proper kind of MM, a strong Mindset and discipline.

Sorry for my overwhelming gladness.
It's just unbelievable.
I'm sure - everyone is able to get to the end of the tunnel.

Thanx again fti!

Now I'll try to preserve the feelings I had, to become able to recall them.
Still a lot of training needed.

Be successful today, because you were able to be!
  • #5,205
  • Aug 13, 2008 2:25am Aug 13, 2008 2:25am
Quoting resistance
Good morning everyone!

My redaings say this is a steady euro bull turn but let's see what London has to say about it.

Is anyone suspecting just a retracement?
Hi resistance,
Do yourself a favour and read the thread carefully and completely if possible.
Your discussion protocol is different , therefore I sus[ect you either didn't read carefully or completely.

regards
  • #5,206
  • Aug 13, 2008 2:30am Aug 13, 2008 2:30am
Quoting sitoca
Yes. Hope so too. Just some thoughts on the E/U. The 2 days big reaction on the E/U could be due to the Georgian/Russian conflict. Now that a ceasefire has reportedly been sign, we could be seeing at least a retracement on the Eur/Usd. The huge down move over the last few days could be an over-reaction thus the E/U might resume its long term trend now.....

Just my 2 cents thoughts....and not trying to be predictive.
Remember....always dance with the market!

Regards,
Hi sitoca,
You could be right.
Only there is no evidence from market feel that it is the case.
Its hard to tell just yet. Suspicion from DuchAngel's research is that the feds may be intituting strategies thru CBs money markets.
Anyways we are very deep in a bull run so lets see if the bears are still alive.
and can claw back some ground.

Mostly seems this bull is very entrenched.

regards
  • #5,207
  • Aug 13, 2008 2:36am Aug 13, 2008 2:36am
I agree, the perceived Russian build up and military action was likely the biggest trigger for the EUR weakness. Glad to hear it has stopped for now. Consider it a warning to Ukraine, to think twice about aligning with NATO.

Ultimately it weakens the USD military reputation in the area. A huge factor for Georgia, Iraq, and even Saudi protection by America. This could translate to huge oil consequences if the the US military is perceived as faltering or waning in strength. America is too addicted to oil to lose 20% of its supply from the region on failed or impotent military, but also faces trouble at home.
  • #5,208
  • Aug 13, 2008 2:46am Aug 13, 2008 2:46am
Quoting MaMood
Good morning ALL!

Warning: I'm really euphoric.

Since friday last week I was most of time a quite reader of this thread, cos I was highly focused on dancing USDJPY. The first time in my trading life I felt the rythm of the dance. And if you really feel the lead of the lady, trading can be so easy.

THANKS to GRANDMASTER fti!!!

Many times before I thought, ok now I got it. I thought, I know what he meant by "feel the rythm". Now I can tell you: No I didn't got it! I was really far from the truth.

Well - it's very difficult/impossible to explain "dancing" by words.

All I can tell you is following:

- forget about news (of course not to reduce exposure in front of major figs)

- forget about trying to get grasp on why the market moves. May be it could be relevant, if you are fighting mid term battles with the Long Sword.

- Don't be predictive. Never! You don't need to be. All you need is PA!! Try to do practice session as often as possible. Try to dance every market. You will recognize, if you really got the rythm of the PA.

- You need a very proper kind of MM, a strong Mindset and discipline.

Sorry for my overwhelming gladness.
It's just unbelievable.
I'm sure - everyone is able to get to the end of the tunnel.

Thanx again fti!

Now I'll try to preserve the feelings I had, to become able to recall them.
Still a lot of training needed.

Be successful today, because you were able to be!
Hi MaMood,
Thanks for the kind words.

I am so glad that you, do understand the basic mindset and methodology.
Be aware that your mindset may change from challenge to challenge.
If you had felt the pulse, you will probably recognise when you are off. With all market opinion and reports, this is inclined to happen. If you revert to basic always, you will gain the experience to manage all possibkle variances she may throw at you.
try never to place yurself out of control from your comfort ability and you would do well.

As you just learned , its hard to describe the methodology in words, took me 300 pages to explain the simple concepts of truely professional trading and use of technical analysis.

Looking forward to your developing the skills at master levels . Go slowly, there isn't any short cuts.

This is just the begining.

regards
  • #5,209
  • Aug 13, 2008 2:49am Aug 13, 2008 2:49am
Hi fti and all

fti trust me you don't want to retire to europe, we never have a summer (ask MaMood, he is my neighbour).

MaMood it seems as if you have had a light bulb moment. Congrats.

Today I am neither bull nor bear nor pig. I am a . Will just be observing therefore. Good trading to all.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #5,210
  • Aug 13, 2008 3:07am Aug 13, 2008 3:07am
Quoting DutchAngel
Hi fti and all

fti trust me you don't want to retire to europe, we never have a summer (ask MaMood, he is my neighbour).

MaMood it seems as if you have had a light bulb moment. Congrats.

Today I am neither bull nor bear nor pig. I am a . Will just be observing therefore. Good trading to all.
Hi DutchAngel,

LOL, I don't have to retire to Europe now, many traders took the Eurs off me yestrerday and today. Now squared except for the little boy dancer.

The frame of mind is not bad. With this markets, it is appropriate.This USd bear is like in labour for days, and still cannot deliver. The relax mindframe is probably from protective stance of profits. This dance really benefits gutsy bulls mostly.

If thing starts to happen, then you should put on your battle gear. LOL.

enjoy.

regards
  • #5,211
  • Aug 13, 2008 3:09am Aug 13, 2008 3:09am
Hi Fti,

Like to hear your opinion on this. The long tail that just formed on the hourly chart....was this caused by the stops position above 1.4960 or do you see it as some major players trying to push this market down?
  • #5,212
  • Edited 3:31am Aug 13, 2008 3:16am | Edited 3:31am
Quoting sitoca
Hi Fti,

Like to hear your opinion on this. The long tail that just formed on the hourly chart....was this caused by the stops position above 1.4960 or do you see it as some major players trying to push this market down?
Hi sitoca,

Thelong tail haave little significance. If you look at the dailt chart, many bears will be trying. The only problem is thare are much break-out traders , and this is the result of the markets, traps for them. Any bear over extends and they will be game.

Chances is that the bear attack isn't really ready , and so there will be many trapped bears, until the attack comes in force, if it does comes. So its a, How much stamina do you have , type of test.

No one can tell that the bears may come home. Based on their performance yesterday, they do not have critical mass yet for an attack. Only egor skimises, for ground. The bulls seems still in command of battlefield. There should be viloent test for the ground , before the bears may plant their flag. Stay tuned to the events there. it may give clues.

TIP: The possibilities of the bear attack is not gonna come from how the tops will be tested , but from how the bull support behaves.

regards.
  • #5,213
  • Aug 13, 2008 3:30am Aug 13, 2008 3:30am
Quoting fti
Hi DutchAngel,

LOL, I don't have to retire to Europe now, many traders took the Eurs off me yestrerday and today. Now squared except for the little boy dancer.
Good to hear that. You had me worried there for a while.

Quoting fti
The frame of mind is not bad. With this markets, it is appropriate.This USd bear is like in labour for days, and still cannot deliver. The relax mindframe is probably from protective stance of profits. This dance really benefits gutsy bulls mostly.

If thing starts to happen, then you should put on your battle gear. LOL.

enjoy.

regards
I get impatient when its like this, so better to sit out than jump in and get hyper frustrated.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #5,214
  • Aug 13, 2008 3:36am Aug 13, 2008 3:36am
Quoting DutchAngel
I get impatient when its like this, so better to sit out than jump in and get hyper frustrated.
The trader's chief enemies are always boredom from within - Livermore
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #5,215
  • Edited 4:30am Aug 13, 2008 3:53am | Edited 4:30am
Quoting DutchAngel
Good to hear that. You had me worried there for a while.



I get impatient when its like this, so better to sit out than jump in and get hyper frustrated.
Hi DutchAngel,
hmm...mindset weakness detected.

Gotta keep that at check.
See if this helps, take two , and call me in the morning.LOL
Inserted Video


Try repeating this to the market, it may help.
Inserted Video


regards
  • #5,216
  • Aug 13, 2008 4:05am Aug 13, 2008 4:05am
Quoting fti
Hi DutchAngel,
hmm...mindset weakness detected.

Gotta keep that at check.
See if this helps, take two , and call me in the morning.LOL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAq57aXjyAs

regards
Hi dr fti

Thanks for prescription, was very relaxing. lol
Got too much on my mind right now, so just trying to be more cautious. You know the saying "Fools rush in where angels fear to tread."
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #5,217
  • Edited 4:59am Aug 13, 2008 4:40am | Edited 4:59am
Oop , Iron Lady has no mercy !
The cable sinks, LOL
And what is she saying?

OMG Europe employment capacity s 94.6% with production capacity at ZERO?, huh ! comeon cannot be zero, who the fish did the figs compilation?

Oh ya, I remember, MaMood was reminiscing in the garden and DutchAngel was out shopping.OK now it makes sense.LOL

Ok next year, I suggest that take a larger sampling, please.

regards
  • #5,218
  • Edited 5:14am Aug 13, 2008 4:58am | Edited 5:14am
So , my friends, looks like the bulls rules again.
all bears back to hybernation. Back to the caves.

WILL the bulls charge?
send out the scouts.(clowns)
Inserted Video


assemble the troops and I want the catapults repositioned and aim at the bear caves . And wheres the small boy, ok he's home safe.

Battlestations.
  • #5,219
  • Aug 13, 2008 5:03am Aug 13, 2008 5:03am
hi fti and friends,

what happened here? lol

gbp seems to be dragging the rest down too as it seems.

Euro girls failed to charm with those legs? Maybe just not yet.
I din buy her seduction tactics (but gbp's recent suicide might cause just me to rout), thus im still long averaged at 4930...fighting.

back to battlestations.

PS : hang sengs price action to day mimicked yesterdays....
  • #5,220
  • Aug 13, 2008 5:21am Aug 13, 2008 5:21am
Quoting jest1081
hi fti and friends,

what happened here? lol

gbp seems to be dragging the rest down too as it seems.

Euro girls failed to charm with those legs? Maybe just not yet.
I din buy her seduction tactics (but gbp's recent suicide might cause just me to rout), thus im still long averaged at 4930...fighting.

back to battlestations.

PS : hang sengs price action to day mimicked yesterdays....
No fighting est , you are being over runned.
Get out and join them , you certainly cannot beat them. 90/00 zone at best.

Careful the yen boys may be coming into battle soon.
No chance just bail out now.



regards
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