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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #5,161
  • Aug 12, 2008 11:01am Aug 12, 2008 11:01am
I did not trade but I studied charts and now I go for a brief bearish dance...then I am really out until tomorrow...it seems that everybody is watching the games... Yen behaving very odd to me in the 1H....

Now let me get some dollar and I will be able to buy some coffee this afternoon!
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #5,162
  • Edited 11:23am Aug 12, 2008 11:07am | Edited 11:23am
Quoting jest1081
what a day!

am short pm long. lol

im long eur now, averaged at 4889. YEN is looking to spoil my oh so perfect day....
yesh.jest.
By all standards the USDYen had found a top.
But the volitility swings are keeping aggressive sell of USDyen at bay.
Let see if this could pick up close to end of day actions.
At the moment the pulse is bear USD.
But there is this over hang of lurking (big) bulls,
Let see if the bulls got anything left.
If the charts turns today.
The Bears would be out for blood.

If trading today is too stressful or if foreign cap doesn't permit risk positions. Could wait a couple of days, the fog should lift for safer trading.
Of course the R/R would be different.

Battlestation

regards.

Funny day this 08.08.2008.
The Olympics gave great fireworks galore.
Then US ally Georgia, attempts to disturb sleeping giant ,Russia.
creating tension at Caucasus/Ukraine SSR .
And the USD goes for gold in a race of its own.

Donno , smells a rat.
Could backfire, so be vigilant.
Keep feeling her, she may tell the story soon.

If tension remains, the flight to safty instrument may not be USD , as the Us is in recession. The more prudent hedge would be precious metals. So things may backfire on the USD.
I would keep this behind my mind while I find more clues from the market dance.

I am putting USD/CHF chart on just to keep the possibilities in check.
  • #5,163
  • Aug 12, 2008 11:23am Aug 12, 2008 11:23am
Quoting fti
Battlestation

regards.

Funny day this 08.08.2008.
The Olympics gave great fireworks galore.
Then US ally Georgia, attempts to disturb sleeping giant ,Russia.
creating tension at Caucasus/Ukraine SSR .
And the USD goes for gold in a race of its own.

Donno , smells a rat.
Could backfire, so be vigilant.
Keep feeling her, she may tell the story soon.

If tension remains, the flight to safty instrument may not be USD , as the Us is in recession. The more prudent hedge would be precious metals. So things may backfire on the USD.
I would keep this behind my mind while I find more clues from the market dance.
TODAY is the day when BAN on naked short sales on biggest 10 financial intitutions is expired. As I remember it is a 10 day BAN, and the tenth day is 12 August..

""The commission pushed back expiration of its ban on so-called naked short sales of the firms’ stocks to Aug. 12, it said in a statement. The order “will not be further extended,” the S.E.C. said.
Some heavily shorted financial companies not covered by the previous order, such as National City and Wachovia, had sought to have their names added to the S.E.C.’s list. But the roster of 19 stocks remained the same.
The commission’s temporary order aims to keep traders from driving down financial stocks to bolster profits. Bear Stearns and IndyMac Bancorp collapsed amid rumors they were faltering.""



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...oao&refer=news

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/20...t-sale-limits/
  • #5,164
  • Aug 12, 2008 11:35am Aug 12, 2008 11:35am
Quoting Piters
TODAY is the day when BAN on naked short sales on biggest 10 financial intitutions is expired. As I remember it is a 10 day BAN, and the tenth day is 12 August..

""The commission pushed back expiration of its ban on so-called naked short sales of the firms’ stocks to Aug. 12, it said in a statement. The order “will not be further extended,” the S.E.C. said.
Some heavily shorted financial companies not covered by the previous order, such as National City and Wachovia, had sought to have their names added to the S.E.C.’s list. But the roster of 19 stocks remained the same.
The commission’s temporary order aims to keep traders from driving down financial stocks to bolster profits. Bear Stearns and IndyMac Bancorp collapsed amid rumors they were faltering.""



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...oao&refer=news

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/20...t-sale-limits/
Hi Piters,

IMHO, if regulators steps in to do damage control. you can be quite sure that something systemic is broken.
Only that we don't know what it is.
If the domino keeps on building up, it may take the whole system down when the shxt hits the fan.

Lets see if this is true. Its very close to october.
Anyways, follow the flow, closely.

regards
  • #5,165
  • Aug 12, 2008 11:45am Aug 12, 2008 11:45am
Quoting auxesis
Euro had begun making some higher lows, highs but over all she still looks short.

Be careful she dosen't head south, could be some type of declining ending diagional perhaps

regards,

4880 needs to hold here for the longs
Careful auxesis,
don't be too fixated by levels.
makes rigidity.

regards
  • #5,166
  • Aug 12, 2008 11:55am Aug 12, 2008 11:55am
Quoting fti
Hi Piters,

IMHO, if regulators steps in to do damage control. you can be quite sure that something systemic is broken.
Only that we don't know what it is.
If the domino keeps on building up, it may take the whole system down when the shxt hits the fan.

Lets see if this is true. Its very close to october.
Anyways, follow the flow, closely.

regards
Uhhh, I know, the problem is that the DAMAGE is too big, CC, Bonds, Pension Fonds, ... they are next on a list.. The guys are too busy to keep everything ""Under Cover"" until elections finshed.. (That''s why I understand Paulson when he says, that after the elections he is leaving treassury"" Too Stresfull !

P.S.But what I am amazed is the thing that a lot of Financial Institutions are already in long/short (naked) position when the Ban started.. So the question is: what they are going to do FIRST thing when SEC lift the Ban? (maybe cover the positions? So the other question is: appart of all technical Analysis, can we expect a lot of volatility tomorrow ??

Rise your SAILS and sail
  • #5,167
  • Aug 12, 2008 12:03pm Aug 12, 2008 12:03pm
Quoting fti
Careful auxesis,
don't be too fixated by levels.
makes rigidity.

regards
Fti,

Thanks I understand! Was just looking at the 5 min chart, atm we are making lower turns, that in comparison to the supports in the prior up trend. Would like to get long again, but personally dont see it just yet, maybe in a few more minutes.

regards
  • #5,168
  • Aug 12, 2008 12:11pm Aug 12, 2008 12:11pm
Quoting Piters
Uhhh, I know, the problem is that the DAMAGE is too big, CC, Bonds, Pension Fonds, ... they are next on a list.. The guys are too busy to keep everything ""Under Cover"" until elections finshed.. (That''s why I understand Paulson when he says, that after the elections he is leaving treassury"" Too Stresfull !

P.S.But what I am amazed is the thing that a lot of Financial Institutions are already in long/short (naked) position when the Ban started.. So the question is: what they are going to do FIRST thing when SEC lift the Ban? (maybe cover the positions? So the other question is: appart of all technical Analysis, can we expect a lot of volatility tomorrow ??

Rise your SAILS and sail
Hi Piters,
These are the price to pay for interference with free markets.

If you have found the way to chase airplanes, please teach me.
IMHO, only thigy is either you're on board before take off, or you spend the night at the airport waiting for the next available.


regards
  • #5,169
  • Aug 12, 2008 12:17pm Aug 12, 2008 12:17pm
Looks like there may be panic selling USD near closing baring intervention.
  • #5,170
  • Aug 12, 2008 12:17pm Aug 12, 2008 12:17pm
Quoting fti
Hi Piters,
These are the price to pay for interference with free markets.

If you have found the way to chase airplanes, please teach me.
IMHO, only thigy is either you're on board before take off, or you spend the night at the airport waiting for the next available.


regards
Me?

No, I haven''t.

I am happy to drive my car... (slowlly on 1min-5min) I am using airplanes only for holidays LOL

Thanks FTI.
  • #5,171
  • Aug 12, 2008 12:19pm Aug 12, 2008 12:19pm
Quoting fti
Looks like there may be panic selling USD near closing baring intervention.
The market is reading our Thread, fti. LOL
  • #5,172
  • Aug 12, 2008 12:23pm Aug 12, 2008 12:23pm
Quoting Piters
The market is reading our Thread, fti. LOL
Na, couldn't be.
We are too small potatoes, for them to bother with us.
Just coincidence la.

regards

OK show of hands.
How many market makers are here reading?

And retirees , please don't be thick skin to put up your hands.
and that includes you, fti.
  • #5,173
  • Aug 12, 2008 12:28pm Aug 12, 2008 12:28pm
They are reading it, now we are in trouble, they gonna put the squeeze on us
  • #5,174
  • Aug 12, 2008 12:33pm Aug 12, 2008 12:33pm
Quoting auxesis
They are reading it, now we are in trouble, they gonna put the squeeze on us
OMG, and I was the one who thought that I had delusions of grandeur.



legards
  • #5,175
  • Aug 12, 2008 12:35pm Aug 12, 2008 12:35pm
Quoting fti
OMG, and I was the one who thought that I had delusions of grandeur.



legards

Nop, you are nOT..

Good Nite!
  • #5,176
  • Aug 12, 2008 12:36pm Aug 12, 2008 12:36pm
Battlestations, attack mode.

fire at will.
  • #5,177
  • Aug 12, 2008 12:38pm Aug 12, 2008 12:38pm
Go Euro
  • #5,178
  • Aug 12, 2008 12:47pm Aug 12, 2008 12:47pm
? Come on Euro is that all you got?
  • #5,179
  • Aug 12, 2008 12:55pm Aug 12, 2008 12:55pm
Quoting auxesis
? Come on Euro is that all you got?
I guess they are waiting for me to unload some of my Euros first.

OK, OK, take that, and that and

wait let me get some yen first.

regards
  • #5,180
  • Aug 12, 2008 1:19pm Aug 12, 2008 1:19pm
Quoting fti
I guess they are waiting for me to unload some of my Euros first.

OK, OK, take that, and that and

wait let me get some yen first.

regards

Chief, you did good by transferring some of the cash to us...I could not avoid collecting some cash for my coffe today...I jumped long with jest and I collected...not much, but enough to justify my lessons...I am out till tomorrow.

Happy trading
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
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