Technical Analysis Fallacy

Quoting fti

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Interim bottom found. Profitaking is wisdom here.

Lets see how high Eur/USD can rally?

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Quoting fti

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Hi ALL,

After a mild Bull run.
Seems that she is stalled and no clues whatsoever.
I am still bias USD bull, but I have to wait for time windows to open, nothing for now.

Lets hope London do have some clues.
They seem to have been clue less and driven by paper for a while.
But seems that papers are early so hitting out of either Frankfurt or zurich.
Could it be sun parties, doing covert activities in Euro time?

Good Fortune.

regards

London , please don't be
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFBBvifJI70

Every ones still in beijing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTy3WA0Pq8M

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Quoting MaMood

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Hi fti,

wow - a really long legged lovely lady.

Well I hope London boys won't be shy, but I don't expect so. There are major GBP figs (CPI...) at 0830 GMT this morning.

Once again my poor english makes me helpless. What do you mean with "driven of paper"? Paper = Newspaper???

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Quoting DutchAngel

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Hi fti and all

Interesting article by James Turk I read.

On July 16, 2008 (the closest date of the weekly reports to the July 15th low in the Dollar Index), the Federal Reserve reported holding $2,349 billion of US government paper in custody for central banks. In its report released today, this amount had grown over the past three weeks to $2,401 billion, a 38.4% annual rate of growth. To put this phenomenally high growth rate into perspective, for the twelve months ending this past July 16th, assets in the Federal Reserve's custody account grew by 17.3%, which is less than one-half the growth rate experienced over the past three weeks.
So central banks were accumulating dollars over the past three weeks at a rate far above what one would expect as a result of the US trade deficit. The logical conclusion is that they were intervening in currency markets. They were buying dollars for the purpose of propping it up, to keep the dollar from falling off the edge of the cliff and doing so ignited a short covering rally, which is not too difficult to do given the leverage employed in the markets these days by hedge funds and others. So central banks pushed in one direction and funds and traders then stepped on board. In other words, central banks ignited the fuse of a bear market rally.


For the full article http://www.goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php#current

Be extremely cautious today.

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Quoting fti

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Hi DutchAngel,

So if this is true , the CBs were in the market, only that they were not doing OMO. So they were hiding behind the GBs and draining away the USDs.

Thanks DutchAngel, for the info.

Here's a little song for you. Perfidia.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydsWPnAj2nY

regards

This is the usefulness of Technical Analysis/ Chart Analysis.
It can highlight to traders, major activities behind the curtains before such info is available to the masses.

Miss-use of the tools, in making them crystal balls is dangerous MO.

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Quoting DutchAngel

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Hi fti

You are right. We see it happening but we also want to know why. I am not being predictive with my following statement, I am voicing a fear. Fed has two agendas, namely to keep inflation low and to keep economic activity high. ECB has one agenda and that is to keep economy stable. My fear is Euroland still has to face same economic drama US is going through and that ECB will be forced to drop rates. This will strengthen dollar further.jmo.

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Quoting DutchAngel

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Hi fti and all

Interesting article by James Turk I read.

On July 16, 2008 (the closest date of the weekly reports to the July 15th low in the Dollar Index), the Federal Reserve reported holding $2,349 billion of US government paper in custody for central banks. In its report released today, this amount had grown over the past three weeks to $2,401 billion, a 38.4% annual rate of growth. To put this phenomenally high growth rate into perspective, for the twelve months ending this past July 16th, assets in the Federal Reserve's custody account grew by 17.3%, which is less than one-half the growth rate experienced over the past three weeks.
So central banks were accumulating dollars over the past three weeks at a rate far above what one would expect as a result of the US trade deficit. The logical conclusion is that they were intervening in currency markets. They were buying dollars for the purpose of propping it up, to keep the dollar from falling off the edge of the cliff and doing so ignited a short covering rally, which is not too difficult to do given the leverage employed in the markets these days by hedge funds and others. So central banks pushed in one direction and funds and traders then stepped on board. In other words, central banks ignited the fuse of a bear market rally.


For the full article http://www.goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php#current

Be extremely cautious today.

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Quoting fti

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Hi DutchAngel,

I see.
But the statement after signing off from my song for you, was not directed at you. Rather it was a general statement about Technical Analysis.

In my opinion, the ECB has little downside rates potential. The general policies before EU was created were firm rates across Euroland, due to recovery efforts from the WW2 which is still in repair. Weakness in rates would drive away much of the foreign funds inflows , which is still much needed in recovery from her historicals. I would look forward to no rates movement to mildly hawkish rates outlook in response to US wooings.

regards

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Quoting DutchAngel

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fti

I realized the song was not directed at me, no need for clarification. I have edited my post as it was predictive. There is more than one way to skin a cat and rates could be raised if inflation fear becomes greater. Who knows what goes on behind the scenes. I try to find explanation by picking up crumbs here and there, but still in the dark.

Anyway, I am off to spend some euro's now.
regards
DutchAngel

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