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War in ossetia influenced markets?

  • #41
  • Aug 11, 2008 1:00am Aug 11, 2008 1:00am
Quoting Clouds
No, it's not going 1.6 or higher. Please. Stop dreaming.
Maybe you're right. I said about possible upmove because i recall similar situation in october 07, when before going up to 1.48, euro made a dip to 1,34 . it was a similar picture.
  • #42
  • Aug 11, 2008 1:01am Aug 11, 2008 1:01am
[quote=Firstboss;2158084]I respectfully disagree. Russia is one of the most attractive markets now.
quote]
Yes, it is atractive till the moment it has oil and gas high priced. Unfortunatelly situation is to be changed.
  • #43
  • Aug 11, 2008 1:02am Aug 11, 2008 1:02am
Quoting Clouds
It has recently dropped the most against the dollar in 10 years.
Certainly, but that was on Friday when dollar rose against all currencies an commodities. Ruble went up against EUR at the same time. In fact, ruble exchange rate is controlled by the Russian central bank interventions, and the main problem thay have is preventing the currency from rising too much, as the exporters lobby would hate that.
Glad the link was of interest!
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #44
  • Aug 11, 2008 1:03am Aug 11, 2008 1:03am
Quoting vorschlag
Maybe you're right. I said about possible upmove because i recall similar situation in october 07, when before going up to 1.48, euro made a dip to 1,34 . it was a similar picture.
That never happened in oct. 07. You sure you reading chart right? Droped from 1.38 to 1.19 in 05-06 though. I was saying stop dreaming 1.6 for next 6-8 months. IMO. Later, anything possible.
  • #45
  • Aug 11, 2008 1:05am Aug 11, 2008 1:05am
Quoting Firstboss
That post is related to being human and humane, and noticing war crimes when they happen. Certainly, wars are great for trading as well as for making bloody money while servicing corrupt military contracts. Do you suggest discussing war profiteering only disregarding the loss of innocent lives? That would be great for a job interview at Halliburton or Blackwater
I only suugest respect rule #2.
  • #46
  • Aug 11, 2008 1:08am Aug 11, 2008 1:08am
Quoting white$
Yes, it is atractive till the moment it has oil and gas high priced. Unfortunatelly situation is to be changed.
Well, expensive oil and gas are here to stay as world oil production has peaked. In addition, enormous oil profits* and investments have been flowing into other sectors of the Russian economy, so the share of oil and gas in GDP is constantly going down.

*- Russia has the highest in the world tax on oil export - $85 per barrel, so most of the oil money goes directly into federal budget and fedeal reserves
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #47
  • Aug 11, 2008 1:16am Aug 11, 2008 1:16am
Quoting Clouds
That never happened in oct. 07. You sure you reading chart right? Droped from 1.38 to 1.19 in 05-06 though. I was saying stop dreaming 1.6 for next 6-8 months. IMO. Later, anything possible.
yes you are right I mixed up october with august. i meant that euro went down in august 07 to the support and then reached 1,48 by the end of the year. and this down move riminded me this year's picture.
  • #48
  • Aug 11, 2008 1:48am Aug 11, 2008 1:48am
Quoting Clouds
No, it's not going 1.6 or higher. Please. Stop dreaming.
by the way, why are you so confident it won't go up to 1.6 in 6-8m?
  • #49
  • Aug 11, 2008 1:51am Aug 11, 2008 1:51am
Quoting vorschlag
by the way, why are you so confident it won't go up to 1.6 in 6-8m?
we're going down to 1.35 and then up trend "may" resume, judging from past history in 05-06. We may see 1.55 first.
  • #50
  • Aug 11, 2008 5:34am Aug 11, 2008 5:34am
Good to get European ideas about this situation from prior posts.

Diplomatic efforts are underway to broker a cease fire. If Russia halts the advance then this event will be contained. If the Russian political want is for regime change in Georgia and the push into this nation progresses then there are wider ramifications.

Euro is swinging around, possibly caused by low liquidity as market makers step back from market.

The wiser course of action may well be to sit the market out until there is some calming of this most uncertain occurrence.

Focusing upon economic events is interpretable. Warfare is not.
  • #51
  • Aug 11, 2008 5:46am Aug 11, 2008 5:46am
Just a brief followup, to be profitable a trader must use probability of sucess as a filter for being in the market. Without an edge you surely will lose. Situations where there is no favorable probability of outcome become gambling. Gambling is not speculating.
  • #52
  • Aug 11, 2008 7:49am Aug 11, 2008 7:49am
Cannot view the current resilience of Eur/Jpy as anything but carry trade defense of their position. Euro instability is a large negative for this strategy.

Downside must have higher probability then upside. Greed for yield has undone many a position.

Trade at your own risk levels you can tolerate.
  • #53
  • Aug 11, 2008 8:53am Aug 11, 2008 8:53am
In 2001 a video game was released called Ghost Recon. This video game perfectly forshadows the current war between russia and [COLOR=#d0d060! important][COLOR=#d0d060! important]georgia[/color][/color] over south ossetia. keep in mind it was released in 2001, but was supposed to take place in the future.

The date in game for the conflict was...get this...August 2008! so 7 years ago a game was released that not only predicted what would happen and where but even predicted the time down to the month!

Ghost Recon begins in August 2008, with civil unrest in Russia. Ultra-nationalists have seized power in Moscow, with plans to rebuild the Iron Curtain. Their first step is clandestine support of rebel factions in Georgia and the Baltic States. This storyline foreshadows the 2008 South Ossetia War. This is where the Ghosts come in: to silence the rebellion. Armed with some of the most advanced weaponry in the world, the soldiers of the Ghost Recon force are covertly inserted into Eastern Europe and given specific missions to curtail the rebel actions and overthrow their benefactors.

During the first few missions of the game, the Ghosts battle South Ossetian rebel forces from the north of Georgia, who are harassing the legitimate government and its allies.
  • #54
  • Aug 11, 2008 11:02am Aug 11, 2008 11:02am
Spooky post there Pippy
  • #55
  • Aug 11, 2008 11:52am Aug 11, 2008 11:52am
I think there'll be no effect really as it'll all end within a few days. Georgia is a small and weak country with pathetic military forces, part of which the Russians already destroyed as I understand. I heard they had 9 fighter aircraft total, and that was a few days ago. Nobody in the world in their sane mind will help them against Russia so within a few days at most they'll either give it up or have nothing left to fight with. Shouldn't have been stupid anough to provoke this in the first place.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #56
  • Aug 11, 2008 12:09pm Aug 11, 2008 12:09pm
Quoting Firstboss
I apologize for the off-trading post, but here is a good resource to watch alternative reports from the ground - h ttp://www.vesti.ru/videos?cid=2
FB, i don't imagine you need to apologize for anything, some people have earned the right here to post thoughtful and insightful things whenever they feel it's appropriate. I've had you on that list for some time. Given the level of rant that goes on in these threads, there certainly should be room for a comment or two from someone who knows what they're talking about... and thanks for the "off-topic" link... i was gonna pm you for something like that anyway.
FUBAR...
  • #57
  • Aug 11, 2008 12:13pm Aug 11, 2008 12:13pm
There may be more to the story then the elimination of Georgia. This is one of the fledgling democracies courted by the E.U. and the U.S. There are several others whose independence is now cast under a shadow.

The global move towards democracy and free markets will be injured if other states think they will be left out in the cold for moving towards the West.

This is big time politics in action. Russia is asserting soverignty over former Soviet states. It is Autocracy vs. Democracy if Russia does not stop within the boundaries of the disputed lands.
  • #58
  • Aug 11, 2008 2:35pm Aug 11, 2008 2:35pm
Oh well! update timehttp://forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Euro looks like it will close holding below big support of 1.50. This big downtrend ala weekly on three year charts looks ominous.
Commodities are weak, carry trade is starting to liquidate.

Whatever the market may be doing it is moving again. This has directionality. We are out of the range bound doldrums.
Any retracement in the dollar index will be good entry for bullish USD. Europe is in trouble across the board.
  • #59
  • Aug 12, 2008 7:09am Aug 12, 2008 7:09am
As we all know the Russian offensive has been halted.
What are some of the consequences?
Great damage has been done to the notion that Europe is immune to world events outside its borders. An unreliable source of energy lies within itself and there is no safe passage. Europe is now vulnerable and no longer can relie upon isolationist policies to shelter the E.U. from economic instability.

The U.S. has to rethink foreign policy as it is evident the Bush administration was blindsided by Russia's actions.

For now it is a whole new world. This cannot be undone. The attempt to downplay in the press will most likely occur. Reality remains the dictator.

Commodity markets weakened in spite of open War in Europe, this World slowdown is for real.
Against this backdrop we must trade, I would suggest that the future will not be a continuation of the past several years.

One should keep their eyes, ears and mind open as events unfold in the days to come.

Thank you
Foto
  • #60
  • Aug 12, 2008 8:01am Aug 12, 2008 8:01am
No intention of hijacking this thread.
one postscript. How the market reacts today will set the tone for the future.
If the relief rally in both Euro and Gbp has weak carry through then the argument is stronger for the downside then upside.
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