I'm going to try my luck with a target of ~201.
Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
- #106,442
- Aug 11, 2008 4:56am Aug 11, 2008 4:56am
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Dubai | 11,493 Posts
they are LONGjk
keeping my shorts on for now
Trade what you see, not what you think.
- #106,444
- Aug 11, 2008 5:05am Aug 11, 2008 5:05am
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Dubai | 11,493 Posts
Trade what you see, not what you think.
- #106,446
- Aug 11, 2008 5:10am Aug 11, 2008 5:10am
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Collector | 9,833 Posts
Long? nah it's not time yet..
keeping my shorts on for now
- #106,447
- Aug 11, 2008 5:10am Aug 11, 2008 5:10am
How much do you want?
I wish I was in the oil business too. 
- #106,449
- Aug 11, 2008 5:11am Aug 11, 2008 5:11am
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
1.5000 has never been an SR level before, it went right through it without hiccups in that uptrend. that's why i'm sooo hesitant to buy at this level. it's like hussin said, it's more like a psychological S/R level.
the monthly trend is clearly UP for euro. there's absolutely no indication of any bearish divergence out there. the recent selloff should be thought of as a retracement and NOT a reversal just yet.
i'm not sure if we're currently at a bottom yet. we might be. FE 61.8 is sometimes a bottom when price is targeting FE 100 with no bearish divergence (only continuation patterns). but i have seen price reach 50% and 38.2% before resuming to 100%.
montly CCI has formed a trendline. if the trend is to reverse then i think we need that TL broken.
potential long term bottoms for euro.
1) the current level.
2) 1.43xx
3) 1.33-37 (hardly, but will be revised if we reach there in 3-4 months (end of the year)
- #106,450
- Aug 11, 2008 5:12am Aug 11, 2008 5:12am
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Collector | 9,833 Posts
Yes ... this is how it's done. The price doesn't determinate karmostaji's actions, karmostaji's action determinate the price .... when the BoE tries to work against him, he just calls the right people in Dubai, they begin selling GBP and there you have it.
Pozdrav
- #106,451
- Aug 11, 2008 5:13am Aug 11, 2008 5:13am
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
How much do you want?
- #106,453
- Aug 11, 2008 5:21am Aug 11, 2008 5:21am
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
i take that back... that area (give or take 50 pips) HAS been significant. the shaded blue area in my monthly chart shows several bounces from that area. it's also an FE 61.8 level and a 161.8 extension. 1.59-1.6 was an FE 78.6 (something i mention all the time) and a 200% extension. the target should be 1.7x (FE 100 and 261.8 extension).
the monthly trend is clearly UP for euro. there's absolutely no indication of any bearish divergence out there. the recent selloff should be thought of as a retracement and NOT a reversal just yet.
i'm not sure if we're currently at a bottom yet. we might be. FE 61.8 is sometimes a bottom when price is targeting FE 100 with no bearish divergence (only continuation patterns). but i have seen price reach 50% and 38.2% before resuming to 100%.
montly CCI has formed a trendline. if the trend is to reverse then i think we need that TL broken.
potential long term bottoms for euro.
1) the current level.
2) 1.43xx
3) 1.33-37 (hardly, but will be revised if we reach there in 3-4 months (end of the year)
Attachment
)i guess i learned another secret of CCI/RSI trendlines: IF price doesn't collapse or rally directly after the TL is broken, OR not in the magnitude u were expecting, OR not in the timespan u had in mind, THEN short/long the NEXT strong SR level.
we might have a retest of the monthly TL i have drawn in the mid/long term.
- #106,454
- Aug 11, 2008 5:24am Aug 11, 2008 5:24am
It is not too late for you "bratko" you can move to Dubai and start OIL busines any time
Pozdrav
- #106,455
- Aug 11, 2008 5:24am Aug 11, 2008 5:24am
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Dubai | 11,493 Posts
I know... You are always consult your Daily and H4 gann
Yes ... this is how it's done. The price doesn't determinate karmostaji's actions, karmostaji's action determinate the price .... when the BoE tries to work against him, he just calls the right people in Dubai, they begin selling GBP and there you have it. I wish I was in the oil business too.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
- #106,456
- Aug 11, 2008 5:28am Aug 11, 2008 5:28am
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Collector | 9,833 Posts
I was thinking more like buying a bordel and becoming a pimp ... but the oil business is an option too.
If you are buying for pleassure .. FINE; If you are buying for Business.. then think again.. FX is way way better Buss.
BTW can you open one in Sofia ?
Still illegal in Bulgaria ... but I can open one in other EU countries like Germany 
I'll be wearing a pink coat and get myself a nice golden grill -> 
- #106,459
- Aug 11, 2008 5:39am Aug 11, 2008 5:39am
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
as for cable's prediction earlier this month. so far so good
i'm starting to favor the bearish side of the longer term trend. the latest selloff was obviously dollar strength and NOT pound weakness (yes the pound is weakening, but it wasn't as fast as the dollar strength) last week.
we all know that the pound should head to the shitter in the soon future, and when that happens, get ready for round 2 of el crappy doo.
price is current just a millimeter below the monthly 0 line, if this month closes below this level, then selling rallies in the longer term is the thing to do.
ok, no for the cons of my analysis: monthly chart is showing a congestion zone, that could potentially trigger a fake breakout. only for price to head shooting up and breaking previous highs... just like we had with the daily GJ chart. HOWEVER, this "fake" monthly breakout (which some traders might think of as a major trend reversal for cable) might extend one more leg downwards (Same as with GJ) before heading back up in the speed of light.
potential bottoms for cable.
1) the current level.
2) 1.89 (although i prefer 1.86)
3) 1.79 (my prediction 4 months ago.)
and yes, just like euro, i'm going to go long on all of those potential bottoms, for i believe a GOOD bounce is due when price reaches each. and don't forget we ARE at one of those levels right now
i'm starting to favor the bearish side of the longer term trend. the latest selloff was obviously dollar strength and NOT pound weakness (yes the pound is weakening, but it wasn't as fast as the dollar strength) last week.
we all know that the pound should head to the shitter in the soon future, and when that happens, get ready for round 2 of el crappy doo.
price is current just a millimeter below the monthly 0 line, if this month closes below this level, then selling rallies in the longer term is the thing to do.
ok, no for the cons of my analysis: monthly chart is showing a congestion zone, that could potentially trigger a fake breakout. only for price to head shooting up and breaking previous highs... just like we had with the daily GJ chart. HOWEVER, this "fake" monthly breakout (which some traders might think of as a major trend reversal for cable) might extend one more leg downwards (Same as with GJ) before heading back up in the speed of light.
potential bottoms for cable.
1) the current level.
2) 1.89 (although i prefer 1.86)
3) 1.79 (my prediction 4 months ago.)
and yes, just like euro, i'm going to go long on all of those potential bottoms, for i believe a GOOD bounce is due when price reaches each. and don't forget we ARE at one of those levels right now
- #106,460
- Aug 11, 2008 5:42am Aug 11, 2008 5:42am
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
i think cable should be heading up now for a retracement. i went ahead with a long and will lock profit when the gap is nearly closed. i will set the rest of my longs to B/E because i believe we might get more upwards movement this week. price will reverse downwards targeting 1.900x-1.89xx (somewhere at or around weekly 200sma and 78.6 fib) or even lower to 1.86xx (61.8) later this week or next week (assuming the strength of the bear we saw last week). if those low levels are broken we are looking at a VERY strong trend reversal that could reach well below 1.8.
i've stated here before the behavior of some pairs when bouncing from 127.2 fibo. they either bounce back from 78.6 or 68.1 targeting 161.8 OR completely reverse if 61.8 is taken out.
i believe our key level here is 1.95xx (100% fibo). If broken upwards on a weekly level, then the resumption of the bullish movement upwards would be due, potentially taking out the previous highs. however, that's a low possibility right now since weekly CCI is pretty bearish and the -100 CCI level was taken out badly. on the other hand, CCI says we're due for a retracement since it's at 127.2 fibo (yes fibos do work for CCI
i believe these are the potential tops for cable:
1.92xx
1.95xx
Attachment
on the daily level:
CCI 161.8 (potential temporary bottom, but not necessarily), it might just signal a retracement just like the weekly 127.2 i stated earlier.
fibo fan was also hit with this gap (i was wondering why price stopped before it was hit last week, but i guess the gap here made me feel better)
a 23.6 fib retracement is at 1.9350 (the level that acted as TOUGH support and turned resistance), and yes, that's my second target after closing the gap.
the only think not supporting my decisions here and what's worrying me is the daily/weekly momentums (pointing down, maybe because of the gap?)
good luck everyone! and trade at your own risk!
Attachment
of course, those are still valid (what i'm currently doing), and only support my monthly (longer term) prediction.