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War in ossetia influenced markets?

  • #21
  • Aug 10, 2008 9:49am Aug 10, 2008 9:49am
After a little more reflection on the situation about a diplomatic approach to resolving this. If I were King I might say to Mr. Putin ( incidentaly that is quite a slight to the newly elected official top dog in Russia) something like the following.
Mr Putin are you suggesting by these actions that the West poises an imminent threat to Russia? For if that was the case we in the West would have to rethink our current economic and strategic deployments. Come now let us reason together to resolve this abominable event in a manner that stops the shedding of innocent blood.
Great nations do have recourse other then arms.
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As for the USD it remains the currency of a Great Nation, probably the only one on Earth that is capable of leading the path to peace.

The world slowdown continues to accelerate, demand falls, cash talks.
Europe is at the beginning, the US is well on the way. You can make your own guess as to which side of the trade is mine.
  • #22
  • Aug 10, 2008 1:46pm Aug 10, 2008 1:46pm
I`m not fan of Mr Putin at all...But this time I must admit that at the moment russian force is the only force that is able to stop the innocent blood of osetian people (most of whom are russian citizens by the way). I was really shocked and confused today when I saw news on CNN and BBC... I used to think that news are their profession, but I was totally wrong, they are politicians but not journalists. Free press is the myth as I have understood today. They are saying that russian troops attack Georgia. and just few modest words of Osetia...just think...few words. Indeed, 2000 of them was killed by Georgian army friday night. Those who are happy to stay alive lost everything (about 20000 escapees has arrived to Russia). The whole city was wiped off from the face of Earth. Do all theese terrible and unhuman things deserve only few words??? All happeninig is terible crime against Humanity. The auther of this crime and the only responible is the one who gave a command to his tanks and fighter jets to kill 2000 osetian civilians - the president of Georgia. His cruelty I think would strike even Stalin (he was also Georgian and as I heard Mr Saakashvily is his big fan). And Mr Putin and his country are to muckrake all consenqences of his madness and ambitions.
  • #23
  • Aug 10, 2008 3:03pm Aug 10, 2008 3:03pm
Wake up, traders! Putin is aiming at a regime change and that wont come without muscles being flexed. The truth is, both sides underestimated each other; Russia failed to realize how well-trained the Gerogian troops are, and Georgia may have already shot down as much as 30 Russian war planes as well as several Russian tanks (with possible hostages) while Saaskisvili certaintly didnt think Russia would retaliate with such force. It is obvious that Saakasvili has NO CHANCE to win! even if Ukraine and the rest of his EU allies join in. On the other hand, America defense is already seen cracks in the Russian army. Like U.S Marines in Iraq, Georgian snipers have been a nightmare for Russian troops. That is the reason why Russia is pouring massive military elements from soldiers (maybe up to 50,000 troops)to submarine because they want to (1) inflict severe damages to the Georgian defense and (2) they may be seeking to end this quickly but they will not do so in defeat! However, Russia true motive remains unknwon.
As such, im confident that the market will react violently but im not ready to jump into any "predictions" as to which way.
  • #24
  • Aug 10, 2008 3:07pm Aug 10, 2008 3:07pm
Unfortunately the diplomatic way forward between Georgia, Russia, and the U.S. is increasingly moving towards impass.

Russia will not be removing troops any time soon that is certain, but the hostilities do not seem to be moving towards ceasefire.

This situation may be deteriorating. Not good.
  • #25
  • Aug 10, 2008 3:15pm Aug 10, 2008 3:15pm
This situation is isolated to a small region of the world. It is tragic, but appears not to be spreading. There are no political leaders in Europe with the balls to challenge Putin, and the US is not about to launch a defense of Georgia, and would not even if US forces were not deployed in Iraq and Afganistan. This one if for Georgia (small and not too important to the rest of the world) and Russia (second rate military but enough to crush Georgia) to work out. Market reactions tomorrow: a shrug and then back to work.
  • #26
  • Aug 10, 2008 3:34pm Aug 10, 2008 3:34pm
Quoting rapaduski1
This situation is isolated to a small region of the world. It is tragic, but appears not to be spreading. There are no political leaders in Europe with the balls to challenge Putin, and the US is not about to launch a defense of Georgia, and would not even if US forces were not deployed in Iraq and Afganistan. This one if for Georgia (small and not too important to the rest of the world) and Russia (second rate military but enough to crush Georgia) to work out. Market reactions tomorrow: a shrug and then back to work.
I agree that this scenario is also plausible. Howver, i do believe that much of the western world is starting to be "concerned" about Russia increasingly aggressive actions including amassing submarines, troops and other equipment along Georgia borders. It appears that Ukraine may be seriously thinking about possible involvement. Such actions will only cpmplicating things if not destabilize the region. Prime minister Putin and President Medvedev are already hinting at possible war crimes charges against President Saakasvili which the Bush administration and to some extent the EU would not accept. Bottom line, Saakasvili shouldnt've started this conlict especially when one of his motives may have been to influence the U.S eclection, tilting the balance in favor o republican senator John McCain to ensure future saftey against Russian invasion. I partly agree with some of the previous posts that Oil MIGHT be on his way up but im not convinced until enough technical evidences have proven so.
  • #27
  • Aug 10, 2008 3:42pm Aug 10, 2008 3:42pm
Any time bullets fly in Europe it is dangerous. Russia believes itself to have been marginalized by the U.S. It believes itself to be a world player.
It believes itself to being eclipsed by China.

Russian nationalism when aroused is not to be taken lightly. History confirms that to be so.

Putin is playing to Russian nationalism. United Russia party is no little thing.

What triggered the timing of the Georgian offensive will not be known for a long time. This could turn into a very serious event.

Once blood spills it cannot be undone.
  • #28
  • Aug 10, 2008 5:14pm Aug 10, 2008 5:14pm
Again, both players in this are not very significant players in the world today. Russia wants to re-establish its reputation as a world power. In light of a weak Europe, all it needs is the will to attack and destroy to cause the Europeans to shake in fear. The reaction in Europe to all this may be more powerful than in the US, where Russia is a military and economic joke. But the Europeans are another thing. Perhaps I should reconsider the reaction there tomorrow. We may see a sudden fall in equities and in the euro. Have to wait and see how Asia reacts tonight.
  • #29
  • Aug 10, 2008 6:28pm Aug 10, 2008 6:28pm
Quoting white$
I`m not fan of Mr Putin at all...But this time I must admit that at the moment russian force is the only force that is able to stop the innocent blood of osetian people (most of whom are russian citizens by the way). I was really shocked and confused today when I saw news on CNN and BBC... I used to think that news are their profession, but I was totally wrong, they are politicians but not journalists. Free press is the myth as I have understood today. They are saying that russian troops attack Georgia. and just few modest words of Osetia...just think...few words. Indeed, 2000 of them was killed by Georgian army friday night. Those who are happy to stay alive lost everything (about 20000 escapees has arrived to Russia). The whole city was wiped off from the face of Earth. Do all theese terrible and unhuman things deserve only few words??? All happeninig is terible crime against Humanity. The auther of this crime and the only responible is the one who gave a command to his tanks and fighter jets to kill 2000 osetian civilians - the president of Georgia. His cruelty I think would strike even Stalin (he was also Georgian and as I heard Mr Saakashvily is his big fan). And Mr Putin and his country are to muckrake all consenqences of his madness and ambitions.
In what way this post have connection with markets and trading? google for political forums.
  • #30
  • Aug 10, 2008 9:14pm Aug 10, 2008 9:14pm
Just to keep an ongoing record of the price action of Euro/Usd Sunday open E.S.T. initial sharp selloff then rebound then resumption of downtrend. Currently below Fri. close by about 40 pips. Think carry trade support is holding up Euro. Otherwise weekly charts looks very weak to me.
opinion:
Impact of war news must be affecting Euro.

If anyone else wishes to post the Euopean open price action here with an opinion please do.
  • #31
  • Aug 10, 2008 11:19pm Aug 10, 2008 11:19pm
Quoting vorschlag
In what way this post have connection with markets and trading? google for political forums.
That post is related to being human and humane, and noticing war crimes when they happen. Certainly, wars are great for trading as well as for making bloody money while servicing corrupt military contracts. Do you suggest discussing war profiteering only disregarding the loss of innocent lives? That would be great for a job interview at Halliburton or Blackwater
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #32
  • Edited Aug 11, 2008 12:37am Aug 10, 2008 11:29pm | Edited Aug 11, 2008 12:37am
Quoting vorschlag
In what way this post have connection with markets and trading? google for political forums.
The same connection as many other posts here have...I wonder why very my post was so irritating?
Russia is the Axil of evil
Wake up and stop quote the headlines they are far from the true situation. The most part of russian troops that arriveled to Georgia is the force of Civil Defence...you know military doctors, nurses, people who will rack damaged homes by their hands...there is no water, energy, food in the region after georgian attacks...who is able to solve all this terrible problems? only military can do it in this situation. One force is desrtroying the other is carrying the can...and only small part of russian troops ariveled to the region to defense russian peacemakers who stayed there since 1992 according to peace agreemaent between Geoergia and Osetia and was shooted straigthforward at Friday night by georgian side. 15 of them are dead, and to defence the rest is the responsibility of those who sent them to the region... The US force behaves the same in Iraq. And no one call the USA "the Axil of evil".
I suppose that situation has no influence on forex market at least today. The region and Georgia has no economy at all. It is not part of EU and has no connection to euro zone. Euro began his free long time before conflict startes, and what we are whatching at the moment is TREND.
  • #33
  • Aug 11, 2008 12:39am Aug 11, 2008 12:39am
Sell your rubles, but seriously, I hope this ends soon, and the US does not attack russia. I heard on Russian News, that Georgia was shooting up schools and burning down churchs in S. Ossetia. So Russia may have had right to strike
  • #34
  • Aug 11, 2008 12:45am Aug 11, 2008 12:45am
Quoting Clouds
Sell your rubles
Good advice. Ruble has no strenght in future.
  • #35
  • Aug 11, 2008 12:46am Aug 11, 2008 12:46am
I apologize for the off-trading post, but here is a good resource to watch alternative reports from the ground - this is English version of one of the Russian TV stations. Even if you are sceptical about comments you can still see the devastation, human tragedy and humanitary crisis in Ossetia.
http://www.vesti.ru/videos?cid=2
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #36
  • Edited 1:52am Aug 11, 2008 12:47am | Edited 1:52am
Several markets, stock and currency went strongly in one direction on friday, and I am sure it is due to some news event. but I am not sure what news affected it. Maybe there were some other news events beside the conflict in georgia. Now on the daily chart euro stoped at support of ~ 1.4980 (previosly january-february resistance). I think there is still a possibility of euro coming back to 1.6 and maybe higher.
  • #37
  • Aug 11, 2008 12:50am Aug 11, 2008 12:50am
Quoting vorschlag
Several markets, stock and currency went strongly in one direction on friday, and I am sure it is due to some news event. but I am not sure what news affected it. Maybe there were some other news events beside the conflict in georgia. Sunday's open continued the momentum and now on the daily chart euro stoped clearly at support of 1.4980 (previosly january-february resistance). I think there is still a possibility of euro coming back to 1.6 and maybe higher.
No, it's not going 1.6 or higher. Please. Stop dreaming.
  • #38
  • Aug 11, 2008 12:53am Aug 11, 2008 12:53am
Quoting white$
Good advise. Ruble has no strenght in future.
I respectfully disagree. Russia is one of the most attractive markets now. Imagine the 140mln population where 90% of consumers have zero savings/retirement plans/investments, spend all their income on retail and favor luxury items. This makes for enormous profit margins.
Imagine lines between 3 and 6 months to buy a new car priced under $20'000 - dealer inventories can't supply enough cars for the demand.
For example, the bankrupt Ford and GM corporations are expanding their production in Russia as they operate with lucrative profit there.

So, good luck shorting rubles :-)
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #39
  • Aug 11, 2008 12:56am Aug 11, 2008 12:56am
Quoting Firstboss
So, good luck shorting rubles :-)
It has recently dropped the most against the dollar in 10 years on Friday.
  • #40
  • Aug 11, 2008 12:57am Aug 11, 2008 12:57am
Quoting Firstboss
I apologize for the off-trading post, but here is a good resource to watch alternative reports from the ground - this is English version of one of the Russian TV stations. Even if you are sceptical about comments you can still see the devastation, human tragedy and humanitary crisis in Ossetia.
http://www.vesti.ru/videos?cid=2
Thanks for link.
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