Is This My Holy Grail EA :D

Quoting jnevins

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My 3000 demo is handling it though so we will see if it can push it over the edge. If it survives these moves then I will have to go live with a large amount. My friend and I are willing to go 3000 dollars, the only thing is choosing the amount. Right now .05 trades are able to survive these moves up to 8 levels but probably not much higher.

Hi Bob,

8 levels may not be enough protection for you... as an experiment, I was working with a roulette simulation to test a 1.4X martingale... I managed to go 11 levels with it in short order until the sim acct was blown. Even though mathematically the chances of that happening are theoretically remote, in practice it happened pretty quickly.

Thanks for all the work you are doing and sharing on this....

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Quoting nanningbob

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This is the final results of my work Attached are my two most successful EAs. I have not posted these before. Start them around/before the JPY session 8PM EST USA time and close all trades every day when there is a nice profit. If no profit shows up after running all day to the USA close, close all your trades and avoid the death trade. For Pics of the 100/40 system and its record go to pages 23 and 24 and see posts 338. 343, 353, 359. The pages around it will describe the system for you. This is the first time I am posting that EA.

Also included is the 50/40 system EA that profited nice using pennies last week. It uses the same philosophy as the 100/40 but will take profit more often and gets out of a bad run easier. I enclose a pic of my live test of last week using .02 a trade. The drop off at the end was not because of losing trades but me closing all trade for the weekend. I do not recommend holding trades over the weekend because of gaping. This gaping messes up the reentry feature of MM trading. Both EAs and both templates are zipped. Both EAs follow the daily trend so that is where you can view them. Also in the zip file is my Modified Martingale theory and my 7 year currency trend analysis. These are my conclusions to what works best with MM trading. I feel I have enough confidence in the system and my ability to recognize and get out of a death trade that I am now going to set up an account with 3000 USD and trade 10 - 15 currencies. I will post my results. I have given up in trying to make this work on the 250 dollars for the IBFX contest. I dont think I can do it. I have 100% confidence I can make this work on 3000 dollars and so does a good friend of mine who has been following this with me. So we have tried to be honest and upfront with you all. So here we go. Because of my job I wont be able to post as much as I have been. I will be quite busy this fall.

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Quoting PistolDave

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Thanks nanningbob, for all the hard work and testing. Good luck in your live account!

I just wanted to clear up a few points. The only hours that you want to keep the EA running is during the most active trading hours (Asia, London, US), right? Then close it during the slower hours of the day?

Yes, these two EAs are different than the ones I tried using the last 5 pages. Just couldnt make it work on small amounts of money so back to the successful system I tested earlier. Since it almost always takes more than one day to enter a death trade, if you close your trades every day when they are at a profit, you never face the death trade. If the day is a loser you get rid of the loss and go to the next day. This last Wed. Thursday and Friday were a perfect example. I was in a buy trade on the Eur/Usd. I closed it because I didnt like what I was seeing, end of the day loss. The next day you would have turned on the EA and it would have entered a sell from off the one day chart both Thurs and Fri. Those trades are shown in the pic on #542. That is a demo account. My live account I was trying a different formula and almost got wiped out. This is answered in more detail back on pages 23-24.

You probably already discussed this, but what do you consider a clear sign of an impending death trade, and when should you get out of it with a loss?
For example my EAs I posted go 8 levels deep at 40 pips so once I get past 250-300 pips Levels 6,7, or 8. I am looking for a retracement. Go back two pages and I discuss a GBP/USD trade I took for a loss for fear of the death trade. I waited for the retracement to get out minimizing my loss and then the price plunged. Meaning, if I had stayed in I would have lost my account. Page 36 Post #534 gives a real good example and why?

Also, what do you consider the highest percent of account drawdown that you will allow before you close the losing trades?

I am finding out that once you hit a level where you are spending more than 4 or 5 dollars a pip on a 3000 demo, you better watch out, you are entering an accelerated area where your losses can pile up quickly. On a 500 dollar account when it gets around 1.00 a pip you are heading for real danger. I havent finalized a decision point but it seems when you are using 30% or more of your margin you are approaching that accelerated point where the losses can really take off. Below that point it seems you can still find a retracement that gets you out of trouble. I need to see this on a demo some more before I make a hard rule but those are my thoughts for now. When I was trying to trade this with 250 dollars, I seemed to be getting into trouble when it was getting 75 to 100 in margin usage. If I stayed under 50 I always seemed to be doing great. I solve most of this problem by closing out when I am in profit or cutting my losses at the end.

I should say this I dont always close every single trade but most of the time I did. If a currency really looked good or the retracement looked good. I would close the others and keep it going

OK this is a new rule

If you have already answered these, please excuse me. Let me know and I will re-read the thread to get the answers.

Thanks again for the help.

PD

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Quoting dowog

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Hi nanningbob,

Thank you for your hard work and great EAs.

I have one newbie question. I believe I should put the EA (the newest ones in post #542) on Daily chart and trade opens when MA cross on Daily chart. Even if I put the EA on 1H or 4H chart, trade does not open on MA cross on these charts. Am I right?

Also, I can not open your Modified Martingale theory document in the zip file.
I would appreciate very much if you could make it as Wordpad document.

Again, thank you very much for your great effort. I hope you can make a lot of pips on $3000 live account. I am always looking foward to reading your posts because I am learning a lot of things about trading from you. You must be very busy but please don't stop posting!

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Quoting PistolDave

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Hi nanningbob,

I took a look at your school website -- and it's great that you guys are doing so much to help the kids.

They look great, and that park in the pictures is awesome!

Thanks

-----------------------------

About trading, I still have a few questions for you:

You wrote in your latest Modified Martingale theory document that we should "Start the EA before the Japan session and look for a take profit of all the currencies at the middle of the Euro session, just before USA open, middle of USA market or close of USA market. If you haven’t made a profit by then, close all trades and start again the next day."

I just want to be sure I'm clear on what you mean exactly. The way I understand it, we want to start the EA before the JPY session only if the stochs and MA are above/below the 80/20 levels? Or would it be correct to go ahead and start the EA right before the beginning of the JPY even if the indicators have already started moving from 20 up or from 80 down and are somewhere in between overbought/oversold?

The problem with this thread now is I have posted about several theories and EAs. I can understand that it is very possible to mix up the different experiments. That is not your problem, it is mine because this has been a running story for 9 months now. The one that follows the MA/STOCHS is a 4 hour chart system. I tried to develop a system I could use with only 250 dollars in the IBFX contest. It just wont work with that little money. I cant go deep enough with my levels and I have to bow out of trades too quickly. Also the MACD line floats and can give a false read. So I dropped that system and went back to the tried and true; 100/40 that follows the daily trend. It has nothing to do with sto or MACD or reading a chart before entering. You just turn it on and let it run. The only exception being since some currencies have made some record runs, you should let them get back to their normal ranges. I am refering to the USD crosses. I am not turning my EA on for them today. So the information from the last 5 or 6 pages are for that system. This is a different system. I apologize for the mistake.

The 100/40 system actually works 24/7 almost most of the time. I have ran it for weeks without turning it off. However, there are times I may have to wait 2 or 3 days before making profit or dealing with the death trade. I found out if I close out every day at a profit point or close out a losing day several things happened.

1. I never faced a death trade. The gbp/chf and gbp/jpy were the only currencies that could put you in that position. However, when they make a big run they seem to always have a major retrace during the run that I never faced that problem.
2. Some currencies like to just run and run and run. Indicators are useless with them. For example: USD/CAD Aud/USD Nzd crosses and especially the eur/jpy. After one day you will be 3-5 levels deep but not in trouble but by the 2nd or third day they just keep running and now you are in trouble. So I found out that closing my trades every day the 2nd day I am now on the right side of the run and I make profits on these pairs. Wed - Fri last week was a great example of this with the Eur/usd and Gbp/usd. The 100/40 and 50/40 took small losses on wed on these pairs but were on the right side of the trade thurs and friday. The sto/ma 4H chart system got killed trading this because I never got the retracement needed to profit. Took losses on each one. So that is a comparison of the two.

3. See chart below: this is a gbp/jpy 1 day chart. The time frame from one dotted line to another dotted line is 1 month. So you can see what I am talking about. Go back 3 months and you will see April. It dipped down for 6 days and then started a slow climb up. On the turn around day, if there was no 100 point retracement would have been a small loss day. You would have closed all trades and the next day you would have been on the right side of the trade for several days. Consolidation days when prices are flat or change direction every day, this system works great on. When prices trend you are with the trend on the second day but that does not mean you are on the losing end the first day either. Any retracement puts you in profit. It is why I love this and am trying to make sure it works. No matter what the market is doing this system can make money.

You also mention that "Once you are following the monthly trend you just keep pocketing pips." Does that mean you would only take trades in the long direction if the daily/weekly/monthly trend is up? And not enter short even if the setup on the stochs is showing a short entry? If you are never in a trade for more than one day at a time I don't see how it would matter what the longer term trend is. Maybe there is something about that I still don't understand.

You are mixing up two different systems, I explained the difference above. The 100/40 and 50/40 are daily trend systems. No other charts apply.

Again, I have a great appreciation for all the testing and work you have done and I hope this is not too many questions.

Thanks in advance for your help,
PD

Also, I wanted to include this indicator that gives information on the daily range for the currency chart you put it on. Maybe it will be useful.

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Quoting dowog

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Hi nanningbob,

Thank you for your quick reply.

I have one question. You said that you are going to set up an account with 3000 USD and trade 10 - 15 currencies at the same time. How many lots do you use? How much money do I need if I use 0.10 lot (mini account, 1 pip = one dollar)? Is $3000 enough? Because my broker does not offer micro lot account (0.01 lot, 1pip = 10 cents).

P.S.
Many people say that there is no "Holy Grail" or no free EA which really works. I am only testing them but your EAs are like "Holy Grail" to me. All you have to do is avoid/manage a death trade. And these are free! I noticed that only 20 people downloded your EAs so far. I feel like I won a huge Jackpot and shared with only 20 people. It's better than winning a lotto. Because I know how to fish now. I just need some practice.

Thank you very much for your generasity.

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Quoting PistolDave

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Hi nanningbob,

I think I am on the right track now, thanks.

To make sure I'm clear on what you are trying to do:

1) Above you say "So I dropped that system and went back to the tried and true; 100/40 that follows the daily trend. It has nothing to do with sto or MACD or reading a chart before entering. You just turn it on and let it run."

So there is no need to even consider the position of the stochs and MAs in the indicator window. Just enter at the same time every day (before the open of the JPY session) and check to see if there is a good profit at the times you have suggested. Then close all positions if there is a good profit at one of the times you suggest, or close all at the end of the US session, no matter what the profit or loss is. This is correct?

Yes, That is the best guarantee that you will always miss the death trade. I also can make profit almost every day because most days of the month I am following the daily trend.

In that case it should be possible to program an EA that would open at a certain time, close at a certain time, and take profit at a set amount. It would not need to be opened and closed manually, would it?

Actually this program has everything like that in it. You would have to go inside the program and set those settings. I have tested the start and close and they work but I have not tested the take total profit. I prefer to manually close my trades because if something is losing I like to take my close off of a retracement and minimize my losses. That is something I dont think can be programmed. For instance I see it will enter level 5 just before a resistance line. I will let it enter, watch it bounce off the resistance line and wait for my losses to be cut to a small amount and then get out. This is the experience part of this EA you need to learn on a demo first. Once you have done this a couple of times it is easier to understand. Hard to explain.

I'm not sure about what would consitute a good profit because I don't have experience with the system enough to know yet. I suppose the exit would have to depend on whether you thought the run was about over for that day or not.

Where to take profit, the quest of every trader. I take profit if I see my sto lines above 90/10 lines. I take my profit when price hits resistance or support lines. I like the amount of the profit and am pleasantly surprised so I take it. News story is coming and I dont like what I see. So you have to find what you are comfortable with.

You have profit so you set Take profit lines add the 15 or more trailing stop on each currency, turn off the EA so they dont reenter and let it run. See where it takes you. Just some ideas. If you turn off the EA however, you must reset all the TP lines or it will just close the ones it hits.

You are a fundamental trader and you think price is going to run for a while. You can keep the 'EA on and let it pocket TP every 50 or 100 pips.

Under stand my TP is based on my job. I go to work just before the JPY session and come home in the middle of the EURO session. (I work in China) I see profit. I am done. I am happy. If not, I eat supper, I now am at USA open. I like what price is doing, so I keep it going. It is time for bed 11pm here, (11 am EST) I can take my profit or cut my losses. I go to bed get up at 6-7 am (pm your time) I turn on my EA before going to work. That is how I work this. This EA is based on my time frame and trading style. It fits my schedule perfectly. At IBFX the daily candle starts with the JPY session at 8 PM So you see how it all fits for me.



Correct so far?

Yup except you need experience doing this. I practiced this EA for 6 months before I felt comfortable enough to run 3000 bucks. I dont know how else to explain this. I just hope noone here puts 1.00 lots on 3000 dollars. You will get your butt whipped. Here are the levels at .01 x 1.5

. 1.5 per lot: 1,2,3,5,8,12,18,27,41,62 or 179 or 1.79 per pip at 10 levels. Now you are not talking about wiping out your account or taking crippling losses.

For this system, the indicators are not used at all are they?

Not for starting the EA however I do use indicators to take Profit. The most common ones are Pivot lines, support/resistance or sto lines above or below 10/90.

Please let me know if I am on the right track here.

Note: I included the daily range indicator that could be useful in letting you know if the average price move is nearly over for that day. For example, say you entered the GBPCHF (see attached screenshot) at the beginning of the Asian session Friday. You would have suspected that there was more to the run up after the tweezer top at 3:00 and might have decided to stay in the postion knowing that the average daily range is recently around 150 pips. Could be helpful in deciding when to exit.

I can see where this can be very helpful in determining TP.

Also, I'm including another version of the same indicator with the comments deleted that usually clog up the upper right of the chart on the other one. They both work the same way.



Thanks,
PD

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Quoting nanningbob

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Quoting dowog

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Hi nanningbob,

Thank you for your quick reply.

I have one question. You said that you are going to set up an account with 3000 USD and trade 10 - 15 currencies at the same time. How many lots do you use? How much money do I need if I use 0.10 lot (mini account, 1 pip = one dollar)? Is $3000 enough? Because my broker does not offer micro lot account (0.01 lot, 1pip = 10 cents).

P.S.
Many people say that there is no "Holy Grail" or no free EA which really works. I am only testing them but your EAs are like "Holy Grail" to me. All you have to do is avoid/manage a death trade. And these are free! I noticed that only 20 people downloded your EAs so far. I feel like I won a huge Jackpot and shared with only 20 people. It's better than winning a lotto. Because I know how to fish now. I just need some practice.

Thank you very much for your generasity.

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Quoting PistolDave

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dowog, in my opinion you would be trading with way to large a position and risking blowing out your account by trading a mini with this system.

It has to have a lot of room to move so you would be better off opening an account with a broker that offers micro lots and using only 100:1 leverage with $3000.

What do you think nanningbob?

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Quoting nanningbob

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I agree, this system takes some serious practice time and some experience. It is not a get rich quick plan but a steady daily growth. It took me almost three months to double the 3000 in my live demo test but as far as investments go that is excellent. So this time I will try it with real money and see what happens. When you understand the Math behind this you realize you can make money with just penny trades. You also understand with dollar trades you need a tremendously big account, probably 50K or more. The biggest fear is greed. You push the EA beyond its limits because you want to make money too fast. I have done it many times testing this and have toned down my expectations to being a good investment over a period of time. If you take that attitude you can do well.

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Quoting Romano

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your system works very well -
The leave work a few days then we will see better, but the beginning is very good.
I started yesterday evening at 00.00 hours because here in Italy, the market begins.
At this moment in Italy are the 16.15 hours, I do not know in China ....
I see that you are online at this time.
I have an account from 10.000,00 usd but I can not work with a cent.
The least I can do is to work with 10 cents.
You have the reason, it may be prudent.
Question: what cross work? On those cross
work?
Thank you
regards
Romano

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Quoting nanningbob

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10,000 is plenty to work with .10 That is nice and safe and should make you good money over time. All you have to do is make sure you dont let a trade get too much out of hand. This system works with any currency pair but the smaller the pip spread the better. For instance AUD/NZD is 11 pips and does not move much, The Gbp/jpy is 9 but it moves around a lot. IBFX has 19 pairs and I will use 10-15 at a time. The only time I dont use a pair is if it has moved way out of range as I mentioned earlier in a previous post. The one pair I have had the most trouble with is the USD/CAD. I think that is because it is such a small currency and the USD is the biggest. It can overpower it at any time and it only really trades during one session. The Aud/USD and the NZD/USD both have periods they will trade out side the USA session so they will retrace if you are on the wrong side of a trade. I have been in some USD/CAD trades that never seem to retrace. So I dont mess with it. Sorry Canadians, love you guys but dont like trading your currency with he USD. Please demo for a good period of time first though. Get to understand the system.[/quote

thank you for your reply.
I would like to make a comparison:
if you work with 1 cent to 15 cross me, with 10 cents, at most, I can work on 3 or 4 cross.
I want to know what are the best, if possible according to your experience.
Let me know what MAX_DD you have reached your demo on 15 cross.
We enclosed an address. I hope that it can be useful, talks about the correlation between the currencies.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles.../05/051905.asp

thanks for everything

Romano

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