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Part Time Wealth Building Trading System - Daily Scalping

  • #261
  • Feb 12, 2007 4:25pm Feb 12, 2007 4:25pm
Quoting howard
There ARE futures contracts for GBP/USD on Globex, but NONE for GBP/JPY, unfortunately.
Right. But it would be interesting to see if the synthetic would work just the same. GBPJPY is not a true synthetic anyway because of the carry, but regardless...
Mr. Trend
  • #262
  • Feb 12, 2007 4:43pm Feb 12, 2007 4:43pm
Mr. Trend,

Isn't every trade essentially a coin toss. Even if you go with the trend and use every possible indicator to your advantage you still have a chance of a loss. You can never tell the future of where a pairs price is going to go. You may get clues to a possible direction but it is still a 50/50 chance that it is going to be the right direction. Thats why no matter what the system is that you use the KEY to success is money management and consistency. No system is perfect, but all systems will work if you follow them properly and use money management.
  • #263
  • Feb 12, 2007 4:47pm Feb 12, 2007 4:47pm
Quoting howard
I would go in the direction of the bar prior to the doji, TK has not mentioned anything on this so far.
Thanks Howard, this is what I think as well.

I've backtested the system on the GBP/USD for the last six months - this is as far as my intraday day will go back - but it does look impressive. It's averaged 70 pips per week over the last six months. This is only using two trades per day maximum - if the second trade gets stopped out then that's it for the day.

This would increase to 75 pip average per week if you didn't trade on Non Farm Payroll data day.

If anyone is interested, over the last six months the optimum time of day to get out of the trades was 15.30 GMT.

I looked at exiting at 19.00 GMT - as I knew I would be home from work at this time. (This is the figure that I took to produce my 70 pip per week average - this increases by another 5 pips per week if you'd taken the trades off at 15.30GMT).

So on a basic average of 70 pips per week it would be possible to increase this very easily to 80 pips per week, just by not trading on Non Farm Payroll day and exiting trades at 15.30 GMT.
  • #264
  • Feb 12, 2007 4:50pm Feb 12, 2007 4:50pm
Quoting bmcorcoran
Mr. Trend,

Isn't every trade essentially a coin toss. Even if you go with the trend and use every possible indicator to your advantage you still have a chance of a loss. You can never tell the future of where a pairs price is going to go. You may get clues to a possible direction but it is still a 50/50 chance that it is going to be the right direction. Thats why no matter what the system is that you use the KEY to success is money management and consistency. No system is perfect, but all systems will work if you follow them properly and use money management.
Not at all. I can show you strategies that have success rates of 35% but they are profitable. I can also show you strategies that are 75-80% profitable, but they have such horrid R:R's that you can end up losing money.

While you are correct in your understanding of money management and consistency, even with proper MM, I could still fall flat on my face with a system that is 50/50 and 1:1 because of the spread and commission factors.
Mr. Trend
  • #265
  • Feb 12, 2007 4:51pm Feb 12, 2007 4:51pm
Quoting JillyB
Thanks Howard, this is what I think as well.

I've backtested the system on the GBP/USD for the last six months - this is as far as my intraday day will go back - but it does look impressive. It's averaged 70 pips per week over the last six months. This is only using two trades per day maximum - if the second trade gets stopped out then that's it for the day.

This would increase to 75 pip average per week if you didn't trade on Non Farm Payroll data day.

If anyone is interested, over the last six months the optimum time of day to get out of the trades was 15.30 GMT.

I looked at exiting at 19.00 GMT - as I knew I would be home from work at this time. (This is the figure that I took to produce my 70 pip per week average - this increases by another 5 pips per week if you'd taken the trades off at 15.30GMT).

So on a basic average of 70 pips per week it would be possible to increase this very easily to 80 pips per week, just by not trading on Non Farm Payroll day and exiting trades at 15.30 GMT.
Good stuff jillyb thanxs for the info!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #266
  • Feb 12, 2007 6:22pm Feb 12, 2007 6:22pm
First of all, props to you for doing backtest for last six months.
However, let me offer you a tip, do backtest for 12 months and you will see quite a different picture. I mean really different.
Quoting JillyB
Thanks Howard, this is what I think as well.

I've backtested the system on the GBP/USD for the last six months - this is as far as my intraday day will go back - but it does look impressive. It's averaged 70 pips per week over the last six months. This is only using two trades per day maximum - if the second trade gets stopped out then that's it for the day.

This would increase to 75 pip average per week if you didn't trade on Non Farm Payroll data day.

If anyone is interested, over the last six months the optimum time of day to get out of the trades was 15.30 GMT.

I looked at exiting at 19.00 GMT - as I knew I would be home from work at this time. (This is the figure that I took to produce my 70 pip per week average - this increases by another 5 pips per week if you'd taken the trades off at 15.30GMT).

So on a basic average of 70 pips per week it would be possible to increase this very easily to 80 pips per week, just by not trading on Non Farm Payroll day and exiting trades at 15.30 GMT.
"Every battle is won before it is ever fought." - Sun-tzu, The Art of War.
  • #267
  • Feb 12, 2007 6:34pm Feb 12, 2007 6:34pm
Daily scalping:

g-u:
- open @ 1.9458, previous day trend = down; this is the 4th day after 3 in a row down so first trade would be BUY
- buy @ 1.9458; sell @ 1.9418

g-j:
- open @ 237.13, previous day trend = down; this is the 4th day after 3 in a row down so first trade would be BUY (as i said in my previous post, i think friday was down, not up: open @ 237.26, close @ 237.20; even if MT has a very small green candle for that day...)
- buy @ 237.13; sell @ 236.63

(results from MT chart)
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #268
  • Feb 12, 2007 6:48pm Feb 12, 2007 6:48pm
i use MT for all the charts... the answer is friday candle for me.

Quoting toti1972
I think I need to clarify a point:

because i entered the market both G-U and G-J in the opposite direccion than you...
My first monday trade is based on sunday candle/bar...which in both cases was up...then my entry was "Buy" on both...
What do you base your monday entries, on sunday bar, on friday's, or the result of both?
Based on my understanding of this procedure, I was stopped out on both -40 (g-u) and -50 (g-j)
Today I caught 100 PIPS on G-J...which was all for today on that pair.
and now I am a few PIPS up on cable...
Please help me get this point straight...
Thank you in advance...
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #269
  • Feb 12, 2007 7:09pm Feb 12, 2007 7:09pm
Quoting Scrat
Daily scalping:

g-u:
- open @ 1.9458, previous day trend = down; this is the 4th day after 3 in a row down so first trade would be BUY
- buy @ 1.9458; sell @ 1.9418

g-j:
- open @ 237.13, previous day trend = down; this is the 4th day after 3 in a row down so first trade would be BUY (as i said in my previous post, i think friday was down, not up: open @ 237.26, close @ 237.20; even if MT has a very small green candle for that day...)
- buy @ 237.13; sell @ 236.63

(results from MT chart)
HI Scrat,

So do you place order on 00 GMT?

Appreciate your help

AJ
  • #270
  • Feb 12, 2007 7:25pm Feb 12, 2007 7:25pm
i'm looking at MT chart when i place my orders, it's 0:00 by their time... but now i realize that i'm probably placing my orders at 23:00 GMT. i'll look it up...

Quoting ajasso
HI Scrat,

So do you place order on 00 GMT?

Appreciate your help

AJ
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #271
  • Feb 12, 2007 7:31pm Feb 12, 2007 7:31pm
Quoting Scrat
Daily scalping:

g-u:
- open @ 1.9458, previous day trend = down; this is the 4th day after 3 in a row down so first trade would be BUY
- buy @ 1.9458; sell @ 1.9418

g-j:
- open @ 237.13, previous day trend = down; this is the 4th day after 3 in a row down so first trade would be BUY (as i said in my previous post, i think friday was down, not up: open @ 237.26, close @ 237.20; even if MT has a very small green candle for that day...)
- buy @ 237.13; sell @ 236.63

(results from MT chart)
I have another questions, if you don't mine.

How did you get the buy and sell numbers for g-J. I think I understand that you take the closing number and add 40 pips to buy and take 40 pips off for sell.

Thank you for your help.

AJ
  • #272
  • Feb 12, 2007 8:27pm Feb 12, 2007 8:27pm
my entry point is previous day close. you decide if it's a buy or a sell. then the other entry is actually at the stop loss of your previous trade.

Quoting ajasso
I have another questions, if you don't mine.

How did you get the buy and sell numbers for g-J. I think I understand that you take the closing number and add 40 pips to buy and take 40 pips off for sell.

Thank you for your help.

AJ
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #273
  • Feb 12, 2007 9:47pm Feb 12, 2007 9:47pm
Quoting JillyB
I think you misunderstand me, I am not asking in the vein of trying to predict price movement using candlesticks, only trying to understand how you would trade your system when this scenario happens.

I was only asking as a doji represents an open and close that are the same, therefore it is neither a bull or bear bar/candle. Seeing as your system takes the previous days bar/candle and trades in the same direction, my question was - how do you trade when the previous candle open/close are the same? Do you trade the same as the day before this one, or stay out altogether?
The likelihood of the open and close being the same is very slim but if it happened, I would continue in the same direction of the previous bar until the market told me otherwise.

Sorry for the confusion,

Tk
  • #274
  • Edited Feb 13, 2007 7:42am Feb 12, 2007 9:51pm | Edited Feb 13, 2007 7:42am
Quoting Mr Trend
Jill... this system is basically a coin toss system anyway, so it doesn't matter. With this system, you're just looking for that good volatility to bring you a lot of pips when you're right and you cut your losses when you're not. That's why this system, as it is now, would fail miserably on less volatile pairs -- which is pretty much anything other than Guppy or Cable...

I have yet to see a day where you don't lose AT LEAST once, so that just proves it's a coin toss. Which is fine -- so long that volatility stays the same on these pairs. But as soon as that changes (anyone remember EUR in the early days?), this system will be untradable.
This system is a trending system that relies completely on real-time price movement to signal entries and exits instead of lagging indicators. To say that the system would be untradable is simply silly. Granted, less volatile markets will produce smaller PIP results, you can still do quite well if you marginalize your expectations to be consistent with market volatility and adhere to stringent money management techniques. Less volatility, less profit, more volatility, more profit. It is just that simple...

Happy Trading,

TK
  • #275
  • Feb 13, 2007 5:22am Feb 13, 2007 5:22am
Took another 100 PIP gain from the GBP/JPY market. That is 300 GBP/JPY PIPs so far this week with three more days in the trading week remaining. Only one 40 PIP loss thus far. The GBP/JPY market is currently at 235.58 which means I have left approximately 50 PIPS on the table.

The GBP/JPY chart clearly indicates one more short trade which will be the third consecutive short trade this week. Will reverse to a LONG position after this third and final SHORT trade.

Additionally up 81 GBP/USD PIPS with at TP of 100 PIPs.

Will pursue the 100 PIP TP strategy for the immediate future using the daily system.

Happy Trading,

Tk
  • #276
  • Feb 13, 2007 5:35am Feb 13, 2007 5:35am
Quoting tkimble
Took another 100 PIP gain from the GBP/JPY market. That is 300 GBP/JPY PIPs so far this week with three more days in the trading week remaining. Only one 40 PIP loss thus far. The GBP/JPY market is currently at 235.58 which means I have left approximately 50 PIPS on the table.

The GBP/JPY chart clearly indicates one more short trade which will be the third consecutive short trade this week. Will reverse to a LONG position after this third and final SHORT trade.

Additionally up 81 GBP/USD PIPS with at TP of 100 PIPs.

Will pursue the 100 PIP TP strategy for the immediate future using the daily system.

Happy Trading,

Tk
Likewise have a 100TP and 50SL today after FXDD entered long first trade using Rhythm .. +150 for the week so far on just the GBP/JPY
  • #277
  • Feb 13, 2007 5:47am Feb 13, 2007 5:47am
Quoting petersurrey
Likewise have a 100TP and 50SL today after FXDD entered long first trade using Rhythm .. +150 for the week so far on just the GBP/JPY
Excellent trading. Keep building your skills...

TK
  • #278
  • Feb 13, 2007 7:59am Feb 13, 2007 7:59am
Stopped long on GBP/USD this morning, now currently short and down 21 pips. Currently down 61pip for day.

My close was 1.9474, went long on first trade, using 80pip take profit
  • #279
  • Feb 13, 2007 8:26am Feb 13, 2007 8:26am
Quoting tkimble
Additionally up 81 GBP/USD PIPS with at TP of 100 PIPs.
How?? This is GBP so far this week:

11-Feb s 1.9524 1.9548 -24
11-Feb b 1.9548 1.9508 -40
12-Feb s 1.9508 1.9472 36
12-Feb b 1.9462 1.9426 -36
13-Feb s 1.9426 1.9466 -40
13-Feb b 1.9466 1.9440 -26

Perhaps I'm doing something wrong.
Mr. Trend
  • #280
  • Feb 13, 2007 8:38am Feb 13, 2007 8:38am
We've got some serious issues with what each of us is seeing on the chart then, because here's GBPJPY for the week:

11-Feb b 238.14 237.64 -50
12-Feb s 237.64 237.14 50
12-Feb b 237.11 236.55 -56
12-Feb s 236.55 237.05 -50
13-Feb b 237.05 236.55 -50
13-Feb s 236.55

I'm not trying to be a pain... seriously. I'm just really confused how you're getting a 300 pip week out of the above.

And, when I go back through these charts, even if I set 100 pip TPs, it still wouldn't hit my TP before reversing, so...
Mr. Trend
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