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Interesting GBP/USD MA Crossover system

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 4:02pm Feb 12, 2007 2:36pm | Edited 4:02pm
Hey guys, this is part of a system I've been working on, I thought I'd share it so everyone could point out faults and help me find make it better.

GBP/USD - 1 Hour charts.

48 EMA
72 EMA

Buy or Sell when candle opens below/above 48 ema and closes above/below 72 ema(so it crosses through the channel in one candle). Keep trade open till opposite happens, ie, it crosses channel in other direction.

You get 1-2 trades a week, with the trades giving you between 30-200+ pips.

I'm working on a stop that will place stop at break even after a certain number of pips, and/or only allow stop to be negative so many pips and hours after opening trade.

there are a few other additions I'm considering but I want to hear other people's ideas first.

Also it's okay if it takes maybe 1.5 candles to pass through the channel, or if one of the candles starts right on the other side of the 48 ema inside the channel.
  • #2
  • Feb 12, 2007 3:46pm Feb 12, 2007 3:46pm
hmmm....people don't seem to be biting...

The strategy gives a 1000% to 1500% ROR since the beginning of October, with drawdowns between 15%-25%. I'm working on keeping the drawdowns lower than 15% with a spike detector and stops. With further testing I believe I can get those ROR's any four months. A rule of thumb I follow is to keep the max drawdown below the % of account I risk per trade, which is determined by the kelly formula.
  • #3
  • Feb 12, 2007 3:49pm Feb 12, 2007 3:49pm
We all read a lot of claims from folks. The bottom line is, show us your P and L. Post it up and lets see the real numbers and the real trades.
  • #4
  • Feb 12, 2007 3:52pm Feb 12, 2007 3:52pm
okay. It would be backtesting though with an EA, not actual trading but I hope it's good enough.
  • #5
  • Feb 12, 2007 4:06pm Feb 12, 2007 4:06pm
How did you discover this system? Why those particular EMA's?

This looks very similar to just plotting a 21SMA and taking trades when prices closes above or below. A simple trend following system but things can get ugly when the chop starts.
  • #6
  • Feb 12, 2007 4:09pm Feb 12, 2007 4:09pm
Quoting bugscoe
How did you discover this system?
through many many months of observation and testing
  • #7
  • Feb 12, 2007 4:13pm Feb 12, 2007 4:13pm
Can you please post a chart of your system

Thanks
  • #8
  • Feb 12, 2007 4:25pm Feb 12, 2007 4:25pm
Or how about posting your backtesting results?
  • #9
  • Feb 12, 2007 4:25pm Feb 12, 2007 4:25pm
I don't know if I got it from you serveral months ago, but i've been using a 45EMA instead of a 48, and it's a pretty solid line. Good resistance and support on some charts. When it breaks a certain amount, I buy or sell the next candle. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. It seems to work more than it doesn't, but the percentage isn't great yet. I'm working on what time of day is best, how big the previous candle should be or something else to give a better clue for success.
You added a target for close. I don't know how much different 45 is over 48, but there definately seems like there's something to it. I need to backcheck all the penetrations over the last month one of these days.
  • #10
  • Feb 12, 2007 4:41pm Feb 12, 2007 4:41pm
Quoting aicccia
okay. It would be backtesting though with an EA, not actual trading but I hope it's good enough.
Backtesting is fine. As long as everything is set up as if you were making real trades with real money. For me, the P and L is everything, it tells the real story.
  • #11
  • Edited 5:05pm Feb 12, 2007 4:42pm | Edited 5:05pm
open the xml with excel. If there's an easier way to post this stuff let me know.
Attached Image
Attached File(s)
File Type: xml moneymaker01.xml   41 KB | 1,991 downloads
  • #12
  • Feb 12, 2007 4:48pm Feb 12, 2007 4:48pm
Are you using any RSI setting at all? RSI 21 or RSI 14 ect)

kevin
  • #13
  • Feb 12, 2007 4:55pm Feb 12, 2007 4:55pm
no I don't believe in rsi, stochastics....they seem too arbitrary. They indicate when a pair is over/undersold, but since being over/undersold doesn't mean they may be about to change direction. And even if I did, I'd never use their default values.
  • #14
  • Feb 12, 2007 5:06pm Feb 12, 2007 5:06pm
It sounds like it is worth a look, I will study this for a while and see how it does.

kevin
  • #15
  • Feb 12, 2007 5:30pm Feb 12, 2007 5:30pm
worth observing ... to see if it might rake in the pips. Is there an EA that you can share?
  • #16
  • Feb 12, 2007 6:36pm Feb 12, 2007 6:36pm
Quoting aicccia
Hey guys, this is part of a system I've been working on, I thought I'd share it so everyone could point out faults and help me find make it better.

GBP/USD - 1 Hour charts.

48 EMA
72 EMA

Buy or Sell when candle opens below/above 48 ema and closes above/below 72 ema(so it crosses through the channel in one candle). Keep trade open till opposite happens, ie, it crosses channel in other direction.

You get 1-2 trades a week, with the trades giving you between 30-200+ pips.

I'm working on a stop that will place stop at break even after a certain number of pips, and/or only allow stop to be negative so many pips and hours after opening trade.

there are a few other additions I'm considering but I want to hear other people's ideas first.

Also it's okay if it takes maybe 1.5 candles to pass through the channel, or if one of the candles starts right on the other side of the 48 ema inside the channel.
Here is the perfect EA for that.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 ManageTPv2-4.mq4   6 KB | 1,084 downloads
File Type: doc TP2ea.doc   34 KB | 1,343 downloads
  • #17
  • Feb 12, 2007 6:47pm Feb 12, 2007 6:47pm
Quoting aicccia
hmmm....people don't seem to be biting...

The strategy gives a 1000% to 1500% ROR since the beginning of October, with drawdowns between 15%-25%. I'm working on keeping the drawdowns lower than 15% with a spike detector and stops. With further testing I believe I can get those ROR's any four months. A rule of thumb I follow is to keep the max drawdown below the % of account I risk per trade, which is determined by the kelly formula.

aicccia, can you use this thread to post your entries from this week?
from there we can evaluate where to improve on.
I'm just moving clouds today - tomorrow I'll try mountains.
  • #18
  • Edited 7:10pm Feb 12, 2007 6:53pm | Edited 7:10pm
maybe jamdown....GBP/USD is a more of a trending pair, and this is a trending system so I'm more partial to leaving the whole trade open till the very end. I was thinking of using my original stop method that I developed for an ealier system.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...5&postcount=81
  • #19
  • Feb 12, 2007 7:05pm Feb 12, 2007 7:05pm
Quoting awsl
aicccia, can you use this thread to post your entries from this week?
from there we can evaluate where to improve on.
sure...I only expect 1-3 trades a week but I'll list them. The lastest entry would have been on feb 8th, 3:00 am ET, @ 1.9669.
  • #20
  • Feb 12, 2007 9:32pm Feb 12, 2007 9:32pm
Good stuff. Thanks for sharing. Will be interested to see your weekly trades.
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