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Weekly 80/20 Setups

  • #421
  • Aug 6, 2008 6:17am Aug 6, 2008 6:17am
Fj,

A pity to let go of the exotics, because these seem far more profitable.

If that is the case, they could still play a part, but in such a way that the usd and eur exposure would not be in the majors, but in the exotics.
The volatility probably wont be greater than what we`re seeing in the AUD right now.

Could the CAD play a part too?
  • #422
  • Aug 7, 2008 7:54am Aug 7, 2008 7:54am
I have written a program to do some back testing. I am very curious to see how different currency pairs, and combinations of pairs, perform. Is it better to only trade with the trend? What about some different stop-loss strategies?

There are so many scenarios to test. I will be posting some results in the next several days.

P.S. I just did a quick test of the EUR/USD using daily data going back to March, 2003. It made a total of 4331 pips in173 trades, 25 pips per trade, 126 average win, -192 average loss, 68% of the trades were winners, largest win 365, largest loss -753.
  • #423
  • Aug 7, 2008 3:03pm Aug 7, 2008 3:03pm
what about hedging instead of a stop loss?
you`re in a long trade @ 1.5550 and the swing low is 1.5300. you can place a stop sell order @ 1.5200 for it to be triggered if it gets there. you might even make an extra profit out of this strategy. no extra work to do this but ofcourse you have to work out how to handle these hedges.

I seem to remember that I did a little test earlier with big stops in this thread about stop losses and it always came out second best. Unless you need short sharp stop losses.
  • #424
  • Aug 8, 2008 2:21am Aug 8, 2008 2:21am
Man, AUDUSD, EURUSD, and GBPUSD are all killing me right now. Since this is a mechanical system, I suppose it's the same for all of you who trade these pairs.
  • #425
  • Aug 8, 2008 2:24am Aug 8, 2008 2:24am
Quoting yonnie
what about hedging instead of a stop loss?
you`re in a long trade @ 1.5550 and the swing low is 1.5300. you can place a stop sell order @ 1.5200 for it to be triggered if it gets there. you might even make an extra profit out of this strategy. no extra work to do this but ofcourse you have to work out how to handle these hedges.

I seem to remember that I did a little test earlier with big stops in this thread about stop losses and it always came out second best. Unless you need short sharp stop losses.
Yes, maybe stops will make it worse. But I'd like to do some more extensive testing on this matter. It's pretty scary when you don't have stops.
  • #426
  • Aug 8, 2008 11:40am Aug 8, 2008 11:40am
Quoting mathematician
Man, AUDUSD, EURUSD, and GBPUSD are all killing me right now. Since this is a mechanical system, I suppose it's the same for all of you who trade these pairs.
I am guilty of being lazy, so I don't follow this system as is. I used to use FJ's biases as confirmations for my positions [which I base on other systems], but now that he's stopped...
I have complimented FJ in the past for this system, and I think all of this thread's participants are doing a great job. I have also had some comments and suggestions, and this might be a good time to add another.
If I understand correctly, this system determines the trend based on a 20week simple average. That means that the weekly direction 4 months ago has the same weight as last week's. What do you guys think about replacing that with an exponential moving average, which will give much more weight to recent weeks? Has anyone tried that?
  • #427
  • Aug 8, 2008 1:31pm Aug 8, 2008 1:31pm
I have written a program (in python) to back test this system. It works mechanically (just like the system): Every week, recalculate the projected 80% and 20% levels. Update all TPs to the new 80/20 value. If a TP is hit, reverse the trade and target the opposite 80/20 level.

Here are the results for the 4 major pairs and the 3 "commodity currencies." I used daily data, going back to about March 2003. I have also attached pictures of the graphs of their cumulative pips earned. There is no compounding in these tests.

EURUSD
Trades: 173
Total Profit: 4331
Average Profit: 25
% Won: 68.2%
Average Winner: 126
Average Loser: -192
Best Winner: 366
Worst Loser: -754

USDJPY
Trades: 157
Total Profit: 943
Average Profit: 6
% Won: 66.2%
Average Winner: 112
Average Loser: -202
Best Winner: 199
Worst Loser: -825

GBPUSD
Trades: 151
Total Profit: 1444
Average Profit: 10
% Won: 65.6%
Average Winner: 159
Average Loser: -276
Best Winner: 334
Worst Loser: -1193

USDCHF
Trades: 164
Total Profit: 3476
Average Profit: 21
% won: 68.3%
Average Winner: 131
Average Loser: -216
Best Winner: 226
Worst Loser: -997

AUDUSD
Trades: 137
Total Profit: -1431
Average Profit: -10
% Won: 58.4%
Average Winner: 89
Average Loser: -150
Best Winner: 186
Worst Loser: -780

USDCAD
Trades: 159
Total Profit: 1568
Average Profit: 10
% Won: 64.8%
Average Winner: 100
Average Loser: -155
Best Winner: 194
Worst Loser: -763

NZDUSD
Trades: 155
Total Profit: 1107
Average Profit: 7
% Won: 61.9%
Average Winner: 93
Average Loser: -133
Best Winner: 185
Worst Loser: -772
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.png Size: 50 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.png Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.png Size: 49 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF.png Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD.png Size: 43 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD.png Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD.png Size: 40 KB
  • #428
  • Aug 8, 2008 10:38pm Aug 8, 2008 10:38pm
Quoting mathematician
I have written a program (in python) to back test this system. It works mechanically (just like the system): Every week, recalculate the projected 80% and 20% levels. Update all TPs to the new 80/20 value. If a TP is hit, reverse the trade and target the opposite 80/20 level.
very cool! thank you for this effort!!
Does this work with the original rules [going only with your friend the trend], or does it enter both ways? I am guessing the latter. May I humbly suggest you compare the two?
Also, wouldn't it be simple to check the performance of an EMA for the slopes, rather than the existing SMA? I would bet this would indeed improve the system. Again, I am sorry I am not checking this myself. I appreciate all of the hard work you've put into this program, and I hope my suggestions will come as welcome improvements rather than as a burden.
Thanks again for these nice back tests. Enjoy your weekend!
6p

p.s. can anyone offer an explanation to the odd behavior of the AUD?
  • #429
  • Aug 8, 2008 11:34pm Aug 8, 2008 11:34pm
Quoting 6pack
very cool! thank you for this effort!!
Does this work with the original rules [going only with your friend the trend], or does it enter both ways? I am guessing the latter. May I humbly suggest you compare the two?
Also, wouldn't it be simple to check the performance of an EMA for the slopes, rather than the existing SMA? I would bet this would indeed improve the system. Again, I am sorry I am not checking this myself. I appreciate all of the hard work you've put into this program, and I hope my suggestions will come as welcome improvements rather than as a burden.
Thanks again for these nice back tests. Enjoy your weekend!
6p

p.s. can anyone offer an explanation to the odd behavior of the AUD?
Oh please, all suggestions are welcome. I can't promise that I will address all suggestions or how long it will take, but I would like this to be a tool we can use for analysis.

The results I posted used the version of the system that trades in both directions. I definitely plan to test the original system that only trades in the direction of the trend. I could also try to test an EMA instead of an SMA; that shouldn't be too hard to program.

My thoughts on the AUDUSD situtation: According to the back testing results, it seems to have a history of poor performance. Perhaps AUDUSD just doesn't work well with this system, at least not with these particular settings.
  • #430
  • Aug 9, 2008 1:54am Aug 9, 2008 1:54am
I think what this system needs is a gradual change of price and then it will do a stellar job.
anything fancy and out of the ordinary will upset the apple cart.

maybe AUD was too unpredictable to be of any use.

thank Math for your tests. Fj did say that a test on the daily data wouldn`t be good enough, but at least you`ll get a general idea if the system is profitable or not.

so trading in AUD was never really an option in the past, although you can see it was coming back a bit in the end
because price was becoming more predictable.

maybe Math`s backtest would be a way to avoid pairs that are too wild and will only be included if constant demoing proves otherwise.

I think its a good system, but it needs emergency stops one way or another, either a big stop loss or hedging or ?
From past trades a picture will emerge which stop loss would be best. You might have to give back some profits; on the other hand you`ll be out of a losing trade faster and it will save you in an emergency.
It will also be better for peace of mind.

A hedge would need a new system on how to handle these trades; when to enter and when to exit.

any ideas, especially from the man himself?
  • #431
  • Aug 10, 2008 9:00am Aug 10, 2008 9:00am
Quoting yonnie
I think what this system needs is a gradual change of price and then it will do a stellar job.
anything fancy and out of the ordinary will upset the apple cart.

...


any ideas, especially from the man himself?

Your first statement hits the nail on the head! That is why I pulled back my exposure to the USD by deciding to trade fewer pairs. The last two weeks, as painful as they have been, have only reinforced my belief that risk management is the most important factor in the long-term success of this system. I had my system setup to trade about 25% of my account's NAV divided by 26 pairs. Therefore, each pair represented less than 1% of my account. I have even gone further to reduce risk by taking mathematician's idea of trading heavier when the interest rate differential is in your favor. Whenever it is out of favor, I reduce my trade size to 75% of the normal size. After evaluating my total USD exposure and witnessing an unprecedented strength in the USD, I have determined that even this was too much risk. My returns were truly amazing, but the flip side became apparent recently. I will be jacking down the risk taken substantially (10% of NAV versus 25% of NAV) going forward. That, added to a more balanced exposure to the top five major currencies should still be able to produce a decent return without as much risk.

As for stop losses, I still feel this system would not work well if you used stop losses with it. This system thrives on flexibility. Stop losses would not allow this system the breathing room that it needs. If you're not sleeping at night, then I suggest lowering your risk taken per trade, as I will be doing, not hampering the system with stop losses. Just my opinion.
  • #432
  • Aug 10, 2008 9:27am Aug 10, 2008 9:27am
7 Trades Closed
2 Winning Trades
5 Losing Trades

Closed Trade #233
18-Jul-08 Short USD/JPY 106.91 03-Aug-08 107.53 -62

Closed Trade #97
07-Jul-08 Short GBP/CHF 2.0379 04-Aug-08 2.0562 -183

Closed Trade #225
15-Jul-08 Long EUR/GBP 0.7937 04-Aug-08 0.7935 -2

Closed Trade #236
20-Jul-08 Short EUR/CHF 1.6204 06-Aug-08 1.6288 -84

Closed Trade #253
29-Jul-08 Long USD/ZAR 7.4868 06-Aug-08 7.4433 -435

Closed Trade #257
3-Aug-08 Long USD/JPY 107.53 06-Aug-08 109.24 +171

Closed Trade #258
04-Aug-08 Short EUR/GBP 0.7935 08-Aug-08 0.7850 +85


Overall Results:

+44,003 Cumulative Pip Total

171 Winning Trades
65 Losing Trades
72.46% Win Rate

By Category:

Major Crosses:

+9775 Cumulative Pip Total

123 Winning Trades (+137.73 pips/win)
43 Losing Trades (-172.88 pips/loss)
74.10% Win Rate
+58.89 Pips/Trade


By Pair:

AUD/JPY +66
AUD/NZD -38
AUD/USD +689
CAD/JPY +283
CHF/JPY +952
EUR/AUD +654
EUR/CAD +1122
EUR/CHF -173
EUR/GBP +614
EUR/JPY +229
EUR/USD +1659
GBP/CHF +968
GBP/JPY +435
GBP/USD +669
NZD/USD +524
USD/CAD +336
USD/CHF +833
USD/JPY +34

I currently have open positions in: (new positions in BOLD)

Trade No. Enter Date Direction Pair Price
#230) 18-Jul-08 Long AUD/USD 0.9707
#232) 18-Jul-08 Short USD/CHF 1.0223
#235) 20-Jul-08 Long EUR/USD 1.5834
#240) 21-Jul-08 Long NZD/USD 0.7589
#245) 24-Jul-08 Long GBP/USD 1.9878
#246) 24-Jul-08 Short USD/CAD 1.0133
#248) 25-Jul-08 Short EUR/AUD 1.6412
#249) 27-Jul-08 Long AUD/JPY 102.94
#250) 27-Jul-08 Long AUD/NZD 1.2861
#251) 28-Jul-08 Short EUR/CAD 1.6061
#252) 28-Jul-08 Long CAD/JPY 105.31
#254) 29-Jul-08 Long EUR/JPY 168.27
#256) 01-Aug-08 Long GBP/JPY 212.53
#259) 04-Aug-08 Long GBP/CHF 2.0562
#260) 06-Aug-08 Long EUR/CHF 1.6288
#261) 06-Aug-08 Short USD/JPY 109.24
#262) 08-Aug-08 Long EUR/GBP 0.7850


Exotic Crosses:

+22,513 Cumulative Pip Total

38 Winning Trades (+960.29 pips/win)
14 Losing Trades (-998.43 pips/loss)
73.08% Win Rate
+432.94 Pips/Trade


By Pair:

EUR/CZK +3324
EUR/NOK +1026
EUR/PLN +335
USD/DKK +4518
USD/NOK +2859
USD/SGD +272
USD/TWD +4618
USD/ZAR +5561

I currently have open positions in: (new positions in BOLD)

Trade No. Enter Date Direction Pair Price
#239) 21-Jul-08 Short USD/DKK 4.7121
#241) 22-Jul-08 Short USD/SGD 1.3544
#242) 22-Jul-08 Short EUR/CZK 23.280
#243) 22-Jul-08 Short USD/NOK 5.0945
#255) 30-Jul-08 Long EUR/NOK 8.0557

Metals:

+11,715 Cumulative Pip Total

10 Winning Trades (+5337.30 pips/win)
8 Losing Trades (-5207.25 pips/loss)
55.56% Win Rate
+650.83 Pips/Trade


By Pair:

XAG/USD +13,798
XAU/USD -2083

I currently have open positions in: (new positions in BOLD)

Trade No. Enter Date Direction Pair Price
#234) 18-Jul-08 Long XAG/USD 18.205
#244) 22-Jul-08 Long XAU/USD 953.50
  • #433
  • Aug 10, 2008 11:04am Aug 10, 2008 11:04am
Here are the back testing results with trading only in the direction of the 20-week trend. In other words, this is the system as Fly originally posted it, before deciding to trade in both directions.

The following pairs are much better with trend only trading:
EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF.
These pairs had much better average profits, smaller average losers, and much smaller worst losers. They were able to achieve about the same total profit, if not more, in about half the number of trades. You can see from the graphs that they are strong and steady.

The following perform poorly in both cases: GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZD

USDCAD did not change much.

EURUSD
Trades: 90
Total Profit: 4379
Average Profit: 49
% Won: 71.1%
Average Winner: 134
Average Loser: -161
Best Winner: 366
Worst Loser: -653


USDJPY
Trades: 89
Total Profit: 1600
Average Profit: 18
% Won: 67.4%
Average Winner: 115
Average Loser: -183
Best Winner: 199
Worst Loser: -549

GBPUSD
Trades: 83
Total Profit: 888
Average Profit: 11
% Won: 67.5%
Average Winner: 148
Average Loser: -273
Best Winner: 334
Worst Loser: -1193

USDCHF
Trades: 88
Total Profit: 3269
Average Profit: 37
% won: 69.3%
Average Winner: 128
Average Loser: -168
Best Winner: 215
Worst Loser: -649

AUDUSD
Trades: 81
Total Profit: -559
Average Profit: -7
% Won: 60.5%
Average Winner: 95
Average Loser: -163
Best Winner: 181
Worst Loser: -691

USDCAD
Trades: 80
Total Profit: 873
Average Profit: 11
% Won: 66.3%
Average Winner: 102
Average Loser: -168
Best Winner: 194
Worst Loser: -763

NZDUSD
Trades: 89
Total Profit: 1091
Average Profit: 12
% Won: 67.4%
Average Winner: 94
Average Loser: -156
Best Winner: 181
Worst Loser: -772
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.png Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.png Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.png Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF.png Size: 37 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD.png Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD.png Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD.png Size: 43 KB
  • #434
  • Aug 10, 2008 6:28pm Aug 10, 2008 6:28pm
thank you Fj and Math for all your input.

I respect your decision FJ to continue as before, but with less and better balanced exposure.

For me I somehow think that if we could find a better way to handle adverse conditions, we would have a truly awesome system. Maybe a hedge - better safe than sorry!
I think it would be worthwhile digging into this.

An improvement might also be in the decision which pairs to trade by looking at price action for the last 6 months.
Is the chart smooth or wild and unpredictable?

You can also look at your results: if you have quite a few losses in a certain pair, biff it for the time being.

I am not trading this strategy at the moment, but still very much interested.
  • #435
  • Aug 11, 2008 6:19pm Aug 11, 2008 6:19pm
Hi all

I’ve been following this thread almost since the beginning and I want to thank Flyjetz for sharing is system, it’s the kind of system that suits my needs, I’ve done a lot of testing and research about this concept, I’ve take the same approach and created a daily system that with some differences on how to calculate the midpoint and direction to trade. But I don’t want to hijack Flyjetz thread and I’m posting just to make some suggestions that might help to improve the system.

First I want point one important difference, besides the ones that I’ve mentioned, I close every open trade at day close and I’ve only back tested, I starting to forward testing right now, not using live yet.

When testing the most important improvement came when I cancel all the pending orders not filled at the middle of the session, meaning daily 12:00, week cancel the pending orders at Wednesday.

The results I’ve got are so incredible that I don’t trust them much, so I’m also looking to do some more backtesting.

This suggestion is also to Mathematician, if you could make some backtesting with that change and share the findings I realy appreciate.

Regards
Sjbelchior
  • #436
  • Aug 11, 2008 9:53pm Aug 11, 2008 9:53pm
Quoting Flyjetz
Make it Eleven pairs. I am going to add the AUDNZD to my trading as well. Since it doesn't add any additional exposure to the five main currencies, I feel that I can safely add this pair without harming the system. Every other pair I traded has some additional exposure to one of the five main currencies, or the AUD.
Okay, so I've changed my mind again. I've decided not to trade this pair. I'm back to the ten pairs I originally mentioned. It will be easier to keep tabs on only five currencies, instead of seven.
  • #437
  • Aug 11, 2008 11:09pm Aug 11, 2008 11:09pm
SJ,

I`m really curious as to what you have come up with.

Another poster was going to trade this method daily instead of weekly and Fj asked him/her to write about the experiences.
Hopefully Fj wont mind you posting here with your backtest for daily trading.

As to closing open orders at 12.00 is that 12.00 EST, because after this time the forex day only has 5 hours to run, am I right?

I also have backtested the EUR/USD with an other way of placing the trade.
If I place a trade I would like to buy at a discount so I take the 20-week ATR, take 60% as per this system and place an order 25% of this 60% range under the closing price and add 75% of this 60% range above the closing price for my sell price.

So closing price 1 Feb is 1.4803 - 60% 20-week ATR = 60% of 261 = 157 pips.
buy price for 3 Feb = closing price 1.4803 - 25% of 157 pips = 39 pips is 1.4764
sell price = 1.4803 + 75% of 157 pips is 1.4921.

This way the method produced 1,649 pips in 9 trades, long only.

FJ: good to biff AUD/NZD - too volatile in my opinion so no good for this strategy.
  • #438
  • Aug 12, 2008 5:05pm Aug 12, 2008 5:05pm
hi folks,

although the results from my backtest above are not far from Fj`s, my example is more suitable for a daily system.

sorry guys.
  • #439
  • Aug 15, 2008 8:23pm Aug 15, 2008 8:23pm
Quoting yonnie
For me I somehow think that if we could find a better way to handle adverse conditions, we would have a truly awesome system. Maybe a hedge - better safe than sorry!
I think it would be worthwhile digging into this.


Yonnie,

I didn't mean to completely pass over your suggestion on a hedge to complement this strategy. This strategy obviously works VERY well when it stays within the normal and expected boundaries. When a currency like the USD decides to completely break free, then we have a problem. If we could find an alternate system that picks up on these breakouts and profits from them, then we may have a nice hedge. The only problem is how do you set up a system like that, that will not lose money while it waits for a trade to be triggered? I can tell there are a lot of smart people following this thread, so let's put our heads together and see if anyone has any ideas.
  • #440
  • Aug 15, 2008 8:41pm Aug 15, 2008 8:41pm
6 Trades Closed
4 Winning Trades
2 Losing Trades

Closed Trade #251
28-Jul-08 Short EUR/CAD 1.6061 10-Aug-08 1.5998 +63

Closed Trade #255
30-Jul-08 Long EUR/NOK 8.0557 10-Aug-08 8.0455 -102

Closed Trade #242
22-Jul-08 Short EUR/CZK 23.28 12-Aug-08 23.927 -6470

Closed Trade #261
6-Aug-08 Short USD/JPY 109.24 12-Aug-08 108.59 +65

Closed Trade #262
8-Aug-08 Long EUR/GBP 0.7850 13-Aug-08 0.7923 +73

Closed Trade #263
12-Aug-08 Long USD/JPY 108.59 15-Aug-08 110.25 +166





Overall Results:

+37,798 Cumulative Pip Total

175 Winning Trades
67 Losing Trades
72.31% Win Rate

By Category:

Major Crosses:

+10,142 Cumulative Pip Total

127 Winning Trades (+136.28 pips/win)
43 Losing Trades (-172.88 pips/loss)
74.71% Win Rate
+59.66 Pips/Trade


By Pair:

AUD/JPY +66
AUD/NZD -38
AUD/USD +689
CAD/JPY +283
CHF/JPY +952
EUR/AUD +654
EUR/CAD +1185
EUR/CHF -173
EUR/GBP +687
EUR/JPY +229
EUR/USD +1659
GBP/CHF +968
GBP/JPY +435
GBP/USD +669
NZD/USD +524
USD/CAD +336
USD/CHF +833
USD/JPY +265

I currently have open positions in: (new positions in BOLD)

Trade No. Enter Date Direction Pair Price
#230) 18-Jul-08 Long AUD/USD 0.9707
#232) 18-Jul-08 Short USD/CHF 1.0223
#235) 20-Jul-08 Long EUR/USD 1.5834
#240) 21-Jul-08 Long NZD/USD 0.7589
#245) 24-Jul-08 Long GBP/USD 1.9878
#246) 24-Jul-08 Short USD/CAD 1.0133
#248) 25-Jul-08 Short EUR/AUD 1.6412
#249) 27-Jul-08 Long AUD/JPY 102.94
#250) 27-Jul-08 Long AUD/NZD 1.2861
#252) 28-Jul-08 Long CAD/JPY 105.31
#254) 29-Jul-08 Long EUR/JPY 168.27
#256) 01-Aug-08 Long GBP/JPY 212.53
#259) 04-Aug-08 Long GBP/CHF 2.0562
#260) 06-Aug-08 Long EUR/CHF 1.6288
#264) 13-Aug-08 Short EUR/GBP 0.7923
#265) 15-Aug-08 Short USD/JPY 110.25


Exotic Crosses:

+15,941 Cumulative Pip Total

38 Winning Trades (+960.29 pips/win)
16 Losing Trades (-1284.38 pips/loss)
70.37% Win Rate
+295.20 Pips/Trade


By Pair:

EUR/CZK -3146
EUR/NOK +924
EUR/PLN +335
USD/DKK +4518
USD/NOK +2859
USD/SGD +272
USD/TWD +4618
USD/ZAR +5561

I currently have open positions in: (new positions in BOLD)

Trade No. Enter Date Direction Pair Price
#239) 21-Jul-08 Short USD/DKK 4.7121
#241) 22-Jul-08 Short USD/SGD 1.3544
#243) 22-Jul-08 Short USD/NOK 5.0945

Metals:

+11,715 Cumulative Pip Total

10 Winning Trades (+5337.30 pips/win)
8 Losing Trades (-5207.25 pips/loss)
55.56% Win Rate
+650.83 Pips/Trade


By Pair:

XAG/USD +13,798
XAU/USD -2083

I currently have open positions in: (new positions in BOLD)

Trade No. Enter Date Direction Pair Price
#234) 18-Jul-08 Long XAG/USD 18.205
#244) 22-Jul-08 Long XAU/USD 953.50
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