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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #5,081
  • Aug 7, 2008 9:08pm Aug 7, 2008 9:08pm
Quoting joypips
yes watching... are they big enough to keep it going or just a sweep do you think. btw are you still long? fti will have his whip on you sounded very much like predicting

joy
on the sides.

They were sweeping I'd say, but that would have to be some money behind it. Looking for a level with some big stops. Will the market be able to rebound back and take out any highs????? Dont know but i'd say back to the 5300 neck line would be safe.
  • #5,082
  • Aug 7, 2008 11:09pm Aug 7, 2008 11:09pm
Good morning DutchAngel,fti and all!

What a night!!
Hope you had your asian scout/troops on the right side of the move.

My overnight scout was USDJPY long, but only made a few pips.
USDJPY was the only USD related pair without a major move.

Nevertheless he is in a good situation to start these day!

Have good success today.
My motto of the day is: NIMBLENESS!

Regards,
MaMood
  • #5,083
  • Aug 8, 2008 12:13am Aug 8, 2008 12:13am
Quoting MaMood
Good morning DutchAngel,fti and all!

What a night!!
Hope you had your asian scout/troops on the right side of the move.

My overnight scout was USDJPY long, but only made a few pips.
USDJPY was the only USD related pair without a major move.

Nevertheless he is in a good situation to start these day!

Have good success today.
My motto of the day is: NIMBLENESS!

Regards,
MaMood
Hi MaMood,
Good Day too.

no, she went on without me, I was sleeping.
Thought of putting small boy in after some days of congestion.
But thats what I get for being predictive.

Your motto is good.

regards

Do you know why the yen didn't move?
Because they are the anchor behind the whole USD bull run.
Its their neutral currency to play with the rest of us.
  • #5,084
  • Aug 8, 2008 12:16am Aug 8, 2008 12:16am
Quoting joypips
yes watching... are they big enough to keep it going or just a sweep do you think. btw are you still long? fti will have his whip on you sounded very much like predicting

joy
Hi joy,

yeah, the truth joy, is we never ever know for sure.
So managing it is important.

regards
  • #5,085
  • Aug 8, 2008 12:17am Aug 8, 2008 12:17am
Quoting fti
Hi David,

Try to remember this.

YOU have to flow with the market.
NOT the market have to flow with you.

If you truely want to b successful in trading,
then she dictates the time , as well.

If you need to go off, and she is not ready to move , then you have to square your positions. Imagine , when your positions are highly skewed and you have to book the loss.

Many people wnat to be successful, bt are unwilling to put in the required.
This may be one of the reasons, why dangerous overnight positions are being carried , over time this has become the trend. AND they ask why they failed.


regards
Hi, FTI:

I understand what you mean. To make a success in whichever carreer or business, overtime hardworking should be dedicated, otherwise you have no chance. It is no problem for me either, when we are preparing tender books for an urgent project, we also work overnights without sleeping.

You are a good person. I am concerned about your health. Do you have backache, neck problem, heavy smoking? I think you have all these as I do.

For me, I use 5M to refine the timing. But if trading on 5M, I tried but it would be very tired, and over long time, tend to make more mistakes. It is not sustanable for me personally.

I know you used to trade for banks, but you are retail trader now. You had an exellent analysis on the head and shoulder pattern form from July 14~July 16. But one question, which will make more? By buying-and-holding positions of reasonable size from the time of your analysis, or by actively trading from that time.

Just my 2 pips.

Tonight there will be Olimpic Games Openning Ceremony, I will watch TV and no trading. And from today, I will watch Olimpic games, maybe no tradings at all. So see you the end of month.

Take care and good trading to you and all.
  • #5,086
  • Edited 1:00am Aug 8, 2008 12:36am | Edited 1:00am
Quoting Green_David
Hi, FTI:

I understand what you mean. To make a success in whichever carreer or business, overtime hardworking should be dedicated, otherwise you have no chance. It is no problem for me either, when we are preparing tender books for an urgent project, we also work overnights without sleeping.

You are a good person. I am concerned about your health. Do you have backache, neck problem, heavy smoking? I think you have all these as I do.

For me, I use 5M to refine the timing. But if trading on 5M, I tried but it would be very tired, and over long time, tend to make more mistakes. It is not sustanable for me personally.

I know you used to trade for banks, but you are retail trader now. You had an exellent analysis on the head and shoulder pattern form from July 14~July 16. But one question, which will make more? By buying-and-holding positions of reasonable size from the time of your analysis, or by actively trading from that time.

Just my 2 pips.

Tonight there will be Olimpic Games Openning Ceremony, I will watch TV and no trading. And from today, I will watch Olimpic games, maybe no tradings at all. So see you the end of month.

Take care and good trading to you and all.
Hi David,

Yeah, A lot of activities and celebration.
Olympics opening, then we have Singapore Independence day (national Day)
celebrations on the 9th August.

Happy Birthday SINGAPORE,
Inserted Video


Maju lah Singapura !
Inserted Video


One People, One nation , One Singapore.
Inserted Video


Inserted Video


Inserted Video


regards
  • #5,087
  • Aug 8, 2008 1:22am Aug 8, 2008 1:22am
Hi guys,

First time posting, I have to thank fti for this great methodology.
Been reading since early July, however I'm still at page 148. Now I've skipped over abit just to see whats up with this thread.

Thanks again fti.
Read 'The disciplined trader'.
  • #5,088
  • Aug 8, 2008 1:23am Aug 8, 2008 1:23am
Quoting fti
Hi MaMood,
[...]
Do you know why the yen didn't move?
Because they are the anchor behind the whole USD bull run.
Its their neutral currency to play with the rest of us.
Thanks for that insight.
Never thought about that.
I have to ponder about that.

Just cos I can't really imagine your "MO" with your broker:

If you are doing so much trades in a very short time (sometimes there have been only 2 minutes betwenn them) do you have a leased line to your broker?
Or is it on a call by call basis?
For your convenience I hope you have a headset ...
  • #5,089
  • Aug 8, 2008 1:33am Aug 8, 2008 1:33am
happy birthday singapore

also looking forward to olympics but will not be watching 24/7 like david...

go aussie go

joy
  • #5,090
  • Aug 8, 2008 1:38am Aug 8, 2008 1:38am
Quoting MaMood
Thanks for that insight.
Never thought about that.
I have to ponder about that.

Just cos I can't really imagine your "MO" with your broker:

If you are doing so much trades in a very short time (sometimes there have been only 2 minutes betwenn them) do you have a leased line to your broker?
Or is it on a call by call basis?
For your convenience I hope you have a headset ...
Hi MaMood,

How I wished I had broker voice boxes, like I used to, at home.
Now that I am retired , its just not possible.

I have a setup of multi, autodial lines , and sometimes I hold on phone speakers if I expect to trade. They pick me up very quickly, as I am old gun.
I can complain quite vigourously if service is not to mark. Iguess with this protocol, I do sometimes miss certain trades which is sometime good, and sometimes bad.

I am experimenting small with a couple of ECNs but I find that their prices at always hit at a disadvantage. However I look forward that when this retail forex industry matures from its infancy to be able to migrate the trading there. But they have to have acceptable ecthics before this can happen.

Sometimes I am a bit laid back , for health reasons.

These few weeks I am more on the ball , as am trying to do handson for some here to appreciate whats presented. But really , I guess I am a little rusty,and haven't put my best foot forward.

regards
  • #5,091
  • Aug 8, 2008 1:49am Aug 8, 2008 1:49am
Quoting fti
Hi MaMood,

How I wished I had broker voice boxes, like I used to, at home.
Now that I am retired , its just not possible.

I have a setup of multi, autodial lines , and sometimes I hold on phone speakers if I expect to trade. They pick me up very quickly, as I am old gun.
I can complain quite vigourously if service is not to mark. Iguess with this protocol, I do sometimes miss certain trades which is sometime good, and sometimes bad.

I am experimenting small with a couple of ECNs but I find that their prices at always hit at a disadvantage. However I look forward that when this retail forex industry matures from its infancy to be able to migrate the trading there. But they have to have acceptable ecthics before this can happen.

Sometimes I am a bit laid back , for health reasons.

These few weeks I am more on the ball , as am trying to do handson for some here to appreciate whats presented. But really , I guess I am a little rusty,and haven't put my best foot forward.

regards
Wow - you are a really tough professional!
As most of us (at least me) were stressed to feel the market and not to lose alignment with her moves, you have to handle that kind of communication on top ...

RESPECT!!!!
  • #5,092
  • Edited 3:12am Aug 8, 2008 2:07am | Edited 3:12am
Quoting MaMood
Wow - you are a really tough professional!
As most of us (at least me) were stressed to feel the market and not to lose alignment with her moves, you have to handle that kind of communication on top ...

RESPECT!!!!
Thanks MaMood,
Makes me feel valid.

Some feelings to vent.

Inserted Video


Dedicated to Richard Loke and to my many friends in the frontlines of the market battles, who had kicked the bucket......May you all be dealing away,,, wherever you are !.

Inserted Video


regards

Inserted Video
  • #5,093
  • Aug 8, 2008 2:53am Aug 8, 2008 2:53am
Quoting fti
Thanks MaMood,
Makes me feel valid.

Some feelings to vent.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nJTqpKlZ9U

Dedicated to Richard Loke and to my many friends in the frontlines of the market battles, who had kicked the bucket......May you all be dealing away,,, wherever you are !.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_-mmu4pcJM

regards
Thanks fti for that little "sentimental jouney".
I stopped my trading.
A lot of memories came over me.
Memories about some lost friends ...

Will take a little rest in the garden with all my memories ...
Will take some time ...

Well - there is a live beside the markets
Sometimes I forget about it.
  • #5,094
  • Aug 8, 2008 3:11am Aug 8, 2008 3:11am
Quoting Billionaire
Till now since 8:45 AM EST, the USD keeps going up against EUR, but gold price seem reluctant to drop much further, anybody know the correlation % between gold price & USD ?
Nice take!
if you clearly look at the daily charts for both E/U and GOLD.
you can see a clear divergence . which gives us a warning not to got short here and to keep our eyes open.
the correlation between USD and GOLD is an inverse one that can be used as base of a trade idea.
however, IT'S NOT A TRADE ENTRY OR TIMING INDICATOR, just a fundamental indicator that gives you an additional edge and sometimes a trade filteration tool, people just don't understand this little concept, they just jump in as soon as they see it.
you have got to understand this pretty well.
after you take note of this divergence , it's time to bring the techinicals to position yourself in the trade.
and if they don't agree ( technicals and intermarket relationship ) just be warned and stay on the side lines waiting for a major thing to happen.

John murphy and murray ruggiero has done great job on this topic.
Enter Signature
  • #5,095
  • Aug 8, 2008 3:21am Aug 8, 2008 3:21am
Watch this, you will be amazed
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=etyFS6N-91s
Enter Signature
  • #5,096
  • Edited 5:42am Aug 8, 2008 5:05am | Edited 5:42am
I see that I have picked the wrong week to go on vacation.. usd bulls are here to stay it seems. moves like this on e/u happen like 10 times per year only.

fti, about ECNs and others.. this is the wrong thread to discuss this as we can talk till cows come home.

in general any systematic approach can lead to big gains with small means.. like slipping/flipping a pip here and there for 100 000 trades per day.

if your ECN is a bucket shop and you trade big size and know what you are doing then you will be set up on manual execution.. thus a dealer will accept/deny every trade you make. Leverage will be decreased rapidly till its about 20:1 without warning. they don't trust computers that much themselves (as for Oanda.. they got almost bankrupt because of their system exploits during news).

A big broker is like a clearing house, if 50% are long and 50% are short.. they cross out each other and the broker doesn't need to do a thing, except collect commission. when everybody is short or long bucket shops hedge themselves.. if they don't manage to do it on time, they pull the plug.. "oh we got a hardware error, sorry for the inconvenience, we will be back in 5min (when the move is over).."

Sometimes they just don't allow you to trade, so they requote or offquote and then cancel the trades (can happen even several hours after the trade). All brokers send end of day statements which are final, till then you are exposed.

Having said that, I believe you can trade through ECNs.. brokers like Dukascopy and HotSpotFx have good liquidity and will not go offline during news or volatility.

In the end if you grow you have to go via a bank anyway, would be my guess.

Computers are a source of exploits from both sides. Yet it is convenient and cheap.. good brokers have phone lines open, in general they want 1mio sizes over phone but if something happens to their electronic hardware, all sizes are fine. So it is possible to square any time.. no need to be afraid.

I must say most of this stuff I have gathered over the years and not all of it is from my personal experience.
  • #5,097
  • Aug 8, 2008 5:06am Aug 8, 2008 5:06am
Hi ALL,
Ah... , the plunging knife.
Unfortunately , didn't have the energy to trade today.
Missed it twice, and all within my time zone.
Sure ly a waste.

MaMood, didi you manage to climb on this stampede?

regards
  • #5,098
  • Aug 8, 2008 5:10am Aug 8, 2008 5:10am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
Ah... , the plunging knife.
Unfortunately , didn't have the energy to trade today.
Missed it twice, and all within my time zone.
Sure ly a waste.

MaMood, didi you manage to climb on this stampede?

regards
I did
  • #5,099
  • Aug 8, 2008 5:22am Aug 8, 2008 5:22am
Quoting joypips
I did
Hi joy,

Clever.
Must be making quite a bomb by now,huh?

regards
  • #5,100
  • Aug 8, 2008 5:30am Aug 8, 2008 5:30am
Quoting fti
Hi joy,

Clever.
Must be making quite a bomb by now,huh?

regards
hi fti
scout... 290
2 troops...234
1 troop...158

remember i'm still on baby steps but still learning from this thread. live mini a/c.
will close soon, opening ceremony to watch

have a great weekend everyone

joy
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