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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #5,061
  • Aug 7, 2008 9:52am Aug 7, 2008 9:52am
Quoting Jmx
Hi FTI and the Rest,

I am new in Forex market had gone thru only afew pages so far...

It is good learning center here hope to learn more from you guys...

BTW I am reading Elliott Wave and I notice that the last move looks like wave B. Hopefully FTI, can maybe give me more advise is it good to follow elliott wave.

Regards
Hi Jmx,

you'll find a basic statement by fti on Elliot waves here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ve#post1834759

Please scroll some pages for and back to get all his writings on that topic.

Regards,
MaMood
  • #5,062
  • Aug 7, 2008 10:03am Aug 7, 2008 10:03am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Jmx,

you'll find a basic statement by fti on Elliot waves here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ve#post1834759

Please scroll some pages for and back to get all his writings on that topic.

Regards,
MaMood
Hi MaMood,

Wow thts is useful !

Thanks for your help. If not I think I need to read for at least a month before I reach there.

Thanks
  • #5,063
  • Aug 7, 2008 10:08am Aug 7, 2008 10:08am
Jmx,

Don't just jump to the end of the thread and skip the middle, keep going from start to finish as there are several lessons to absorb and study that are needed along the journey, remember there's no quick answer.

fwiw,
  • #5,064
  • Edited 11:50am Aug 7, 2008 11:09am | Edited 11:50am
Hi ALL,
OMG, the broker keep shading me and my skew went to the dogs.
Only managed to recover about 80% of loss.
Now mu ear aches from hanging on the dang phone.

19:00 -2.0 15448
19:48 -0.8 15465
20:02 +2.0 15476
20:03 -2.0 15448
20:12 +0.8 15476
20;34 -5.0 15462
20:42 -1.0 15448
20:47 +1.5 15438
20:50 +1.5 15445
20:58 +0.3 15424
21:02 +0.3 15402
21:17 -1.0 15391
21:22 -0.4 15393
21:25 -0.8 15391
21:26 -0.5 15389
21:27 -0.9 15402
21:37 -0.3 15395
21:39 -0.4 15401
21:41 -0.3 15399
21:42 -0.5 15403
21:47 -0.5 15397
21:48 -0.5 15393
21:52 -0.5 15393
21:57 -0.5 15389
21:58 -0.5 15389
22:00 +0.5 15375
22:02 -0.4 15391
22:04 -0.4 15393
22:05 -0.4 15391
22:12 -0.9 15402
22:12 -0.8 15391
22:13 -0.5 15389
22:13 -0.3 15395
22:14 -0.4 15401
22:16 -0.1 15366
22:20 -0.3 15399
22:27 -0.3 15399
22:32 -0.3 15395
22:33 -0.4 15393
22:33 -0.4 15401
22:35 -0.5 15389
22:41 -0.2 15383
22:46 +0.2 15378
22:52 -0.8 15391
22:52 -0.9 15402
22:53 -0.3 15395
22:55 -0.1 15391
22:57 -0.3 15395
22:58 -0.5 15389
22:59 -0.4 15401
22:59 -0.4 15393
23:00 -0.6 15399
23:29 +0.1 15371
23:31 +0.2 15368
23:32 +0.1 15369
23 33 +0.1 15367
23 34 +0.2 15366
23 35 +0.1 15367
23 35 +0.1 15366
23 36 +0.2 15366
23 37 +0.2 15365
23 37 +0.2 15362
23:38 +0.2 15361
23:38 +0.5 15359
23:39 +0.4 15359
23 40 +0.3 15358
23 40 +0.1 15356
23 41 +0.1 15356
23 42 +0.1 15354
23 42 +0.1 15353
23 43 +0.1 15352
23 47 +0.3 15349
23 47 +0.2 15339


Book SQ

regards

Actually the profitaking of0.1 was to spike the broker.
as he was shading me and I didn't like it.
At times he was about 3 to 4 pips away from market.
  • #5,065
  • Aug 7, 2008 11:13am Aug 7, 2008 11:13am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
OMG, the broker keep shading me and my skew went to the dogs.
Only managed to recover about 80% of loss.
???

Were you short $ ??????
  • #5,066
  • Edited 12:11pm Aug 7, 2008 11:52am | Edited 12:11pm
Quoting auxesis
???

Were you short $ ??????
Read blotter 1 post back.

regards.

Don't be too long USD from here .
Tom is friday and your're sitting on a neckline of a double top on the daily. This is a compounded neck with a double top within, so its not gonna break easily. Be absolutely nimble.

Looks like 1 more leg to the neck zone. BUt this gotta be small and very swift, becareful/

regards
  • #5,067
  • Edited 12:16pm Aug 7, 2008 12:04pm | Edited 12:16pm
Fti and all...thanks for the warning...
done for the day...CU tomorow.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #5,068
  • Aug 7, 2008 12:46pm Aug 7, 2008 12:46pm
Till now since 8:45 AM EST, the USD keeps going up against EUR, but gold price seem reluctant to drop much further, anybody know the correlation % between gold price & USD ?
  • #5,069
  • Aug 7, 2008 1:24pm Aug 7, 2008 1:24pm
Quoting Billionaire
Till now since 8:45 AM EST, the USD keeps going up against EUR, but gold price seem reluctant to drop much further, anybody know the correlation % between gold price & USD ?
Hi Billionaire.
There is non universal impact, only localised impact.
You seems to have a MAJOR problem with understanding market relationships.
Your training will destroy your book and your financials , not withstanding your ability to think in battle scenerios. Unfortunately you are not alone , many here on this thread, not counting those on FF, have this problem.

See if you can understand this.

There is no logical relationship whatsoever between the different markets, however there is symbiotic relationship( known as basis), in that some fundamentals influence them based on common impact , some inverse impact.
The relations exist when the markets behave in unison, otherwise the different markets may be affected by other localised factors.

By context, lets say a girl behaves in a certain manner when she is dating you, but that doesn't mean that she behaves the same when dating someone else. You have and effect on her behaviour , similarly , others impact her differently.

So when you try to relate the impact of one market on another , you must also viewthat if the markets do not behave as you expect them to, then something else that you are not privy to is affecting it.

We can argue until the cows come home, on why, how...
but the fact is that if the impact is not felt in the market place , just accept it.
Trying to split hairs on the issue , will just distract your focus on reality (whats actually happening) and make your mindset rigid. This can prove dangerous to your book.

regards
  • #5,070
  • Aug 7, 2008 1:41pm Aug 7, 2008 1:41pm
hi fti,
I have always been following your thread since the beginning, it is very illuminating. thanks for your wisdom & expertise.
Are you using the phone for trading? (post 5070)

a.w.
  • #5,071
  • Aug 7, 2008 2:05pm Aug 7, 2008 2:05pm
Quoting sevic
hi fti,
I have always been following your thread since the beginning, it is very illuminating. thanks for your wisdom & expertise.
Are you using the phone for trading? (post 5070)

a.w.
what do you mean by following? but the answer is yes, fti has mentioned several times that he does not use electronic broker.
  • #5,072
  • Aug 7, 2008 2:33pm Aug 7, 2008 2:33pm
Quoting fti
Hi Billionaire.
There is non universal impact, only localised impact.
You seems to have a MAJOR problem with understanding market relationships.
Your training will destroy your book and your financials , not withstanding your ability to think in battle scenerios. Unfortunately you are not alone , many here on this thread, not counting those on FF, have this problem.

See if you can understand this.

There is no logical relationship whatsoever between the different markets, however there is symbiotic relationship( known as basis), in that some fundamentals influence them based on common impact , some inverse impact.
The relations exist when the markets behave in unison, otherwise the different markets may be affected by other localised factors.

By context, lets say a girl behaves in a certain manner when she is dating you, but that doesn't mean that she behaves the same when dating someone else. You have and effect on her behaviour , similarly , others impact her differently.

So when you try to relate the impact of one market on another , you must also viewthat if the markets do not behave as you expect them to, then something else that you are not privy to is affecting it.

We can argue until the cows come home, on why, how...
but the fact is that if the impact is not felt in the market place , just accept it.
Trying to split hairs on the issue , will just distract your focus on reality (whats actually happening) and make your mindset rigid. This can prove dangerous to your book.

regards
Thank You for your explanation and advice, Mr FTI.
I was a bit influenced by my friend (a novice trader)who recently trade the Eur/Usd using gold price action as indicator, (I do not rely on it at all). What also influenced me is that the movement direction of the gold price seem in tandem with movement direction of Eur/Usd, and a (maybe) wrong bias that US is buying/accumulating gold & silver and depreciate the USD on purpose during this coming decate...Ha Ha! what a foolish & unconsidered opinion, your sound waken me and put me back to track where I was to just focus on price action. Yes! price action only that count.

Regards,
  • #5,073
  • Aug 7, 2008 2:44pm Aug 7, 2008 2:44pm
You wanna trade E/$ look at the Euro/Dollar chart, everything is there.
  • #5,074
  • Edited 3:45pm Aug 7, 2008 2:49pm | Edited 3:45pm
Quoting piccolo
what do you mean by following? but the answer is yes, fti has mentioned several times that he does not use electronic broker.
Hi piccolo,
Since we are on this subject and you are a geek.
I will share a little probing that I had been doing.

From info that I had gathered from discussion with "big boys".
It seems that the prices that the ECN is receiving are thru, broking house quotations. This is because after extensive search thru spot interbank treasuries, the result is that no one is pumping prices to the e broking system.

There was some comments that the e broker are trying to setup, but treasuries does not seem to be behind it. There is strong suggestion that it is run by "big customers" and they use prices pumped to them to make markets. Whats disturbing to me is it seems that amongst these "bigs", they are split into different levels. It was suggested that there is level 1 where the bigs spar with the bigs. Then there is level 2 where the corps spar with the bigs. And then there is level 3 , whereby the smalls get prices , which are filtered thru computers and shaded against the smalls book.So there is a hair cut on the prices and the computer are programmed to shade according.

Someone , suggested that thats why, the prices are streamed (spot interbank we have to request prices to trade), moreover , althought prices are streamed, it was suggested that they had implimented algorithms that the computers use to "flip" an additional decimal pip. It was suggested that it is here where the flipping is done that certain critical prices are either not hittable due to the "flipping".or too fast to be hittable. If this was true then it would be diavantages to trade against a computer. Of courese it may be posible to write scripts to track individual and have the computer do advantage activities as well.

Due to this concerns I went back to trading thru the conventional trading avenues until such time when the ECN systems are legitimised, for my fears.

In the conventional systems , dealers quote only to 4 decimal points and we are allowed to hold his price for up to 5 seconds , baring fast markets were they will "off quote", and requote when requested. All the electronic quotes I had withness and tested with small accounts, seem to indicate that the speed whereby the quotes are 'flipped" makes hitting difficult, esp those that quote to 5 decimal pips.

As you are a geek, may I ask you if my fears are unfounded and unreasonable?

Another alternative is that I could trade thru interbank broking, except that my size and name is not marketable , they requires min tickets of 1 mio . If I could tap into that then I would have realtime streaming spot interbank prices to trade. For now, I would have to content with proxy derivative based broking for trades.
These are small time bank backed dealers. But they are painful to deal with at times.

regards
  • #5,075
  • Aug 7, 2008 4:14pm Aug 7, 2008 4:14pm
01:37 -0.2 15319
01 44 -0.1 15315
01 47 -0.1 15320
01 48 -0.1 15323
01 49 -0.1 15321
01 50 -0.2 15321
02 04 -0.8 15324
04 16 +1.6 15314

SQ

End of day.

If you analyse the day's trades, You may find some errs that I made in trading.
Due to whippy markets and fig releases.
Net book today suffered a 1+% loss.on cap.

Goodnight
  • #5,076
  • Aug 7, 2008 4:31pm Aug 7, 2008 4:31pm
Quoting Green_David
Impressive. But it is not the trading style I am devoloping. Look the time you closed the positions.
Hi David,

Try to remember this.

YOU have to flow with the market.
NOT the market have to flow with you.

If you truely want to b successful in trading,
then she dictates the time , as well.

If you need to go off, and she is not ready to move , then you have to square your positions. Imagine , when your positions are highly skewed and you have to book the loss.

Many people wnat to be successful, bt are unwilling to put in the required.
This may be one of the reasons, why dangerous overnight positions are being carried , over time this has become the trend. AND they ask why they failed.


regards
  • #5,077
  • Aug 7, 2008 6:33pm Aug 7, 2008 6:33pm
Quoting auxesis
I'll show mine, .....
B .1 5460
B .1 5450
B .1 5449
B .1 5439

Tried to long the market from here and was a battle

Why? I thought the we trade with the impulse...It was clearly dollar bull...
Ouch!!...quite a few trades, my friend!
The broker was very happy.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #5,078
  • Edited 7:14pm Aug 7, 2008 6:38pm | Edited 7:14pm
Quoting luSan
Ouch!!...quite a few trades, my friend!
The broker was very happy.
If I would have stayed short, it would have been a banner day! Had 2 chances to turn on wind after committing back north , But i didnt, yes lots of trades trying to find the bottom, she ran south all day.

Broker and me we both made $ and for the moment I believe have found the bottom, will try to trade north from it for a while. time will tell.

regards,

a

tis probably a better lesson on what not to do.

follow up remaining runners out at 12
  • #5,079
  • Aug 7, 2008 7:27pm Aug 7, 2008 7:27pm
somebody big is showing it through the levels
  • #5,080
  • Aug 7, 2008 8:50pm Aug 7, 2008 8:50pm
Quoting auxesis
somebody big is showing it through the levels

yes watching... are they big enough to keep it going or just a sweep do you think. btw are you still long? fti will have his whip on you sounded very much like predicting

joy
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