Technical Analysis Fallacy

Quoting jest1081

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fti, if its not too much to ask for, can you continue to post this kinda campaign recaps? We could use it to learn and see the various ways you approach ur skews.

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Quoting fti

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Hi ksl,
New York = - 12

regards

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TQzEQlTEVw

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WlwQTDUytQ

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Quoting fti

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12:07 -0.5 15427
13:03 -0.3 15437
13:20 -0.3 15434
13:46 -0.3 15435

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hG-yuiVyXOM

13:49 -0.8 15433
15:10 -2.0 15448

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Quoting ultima

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Hi, fti, hope not border u trading... May I ask the -0.3 meaning u short on EU or long? Need to make sure so that hopefully can see thru your shoulder, while u trade...

Thanks for all the good works

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Quoting fti

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14:48 +4 GBP/USD 19507
14:49 -2 EUR/USD 15477
14:52 -2.2EUR/uSD 15479

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Quoting piccolo

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hi fti. positioning yourself for news or? why short eur and long cable?

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Quoting fti

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14:48 +4 GBP/USD 19507
14:49 +2 EUR/USD 15477
14:52 +2.2EUR/uSD 15479

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Quoting maheswara

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i think its short ...

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Quoting Billionaire

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Hi Mr FTI,
Thank you for the reply. I am actually searching and building a MO that suits me personally. I have ponder about indicators & price action for few months, and realised on my own that price action is the ultimate indicator. I think I have overly done it because I believe price action moves randomly. We can guess the upcoming up & down based on price action, but at the end is 50/50 chance to be right, the longer term we guess, the less probability to be right. So, I agree with the concept that : to cut your losses and let the profit run, however, this need a trading method/system that need to be followed exactly with discipline. But, I am not 100% satisfied with it, what I want is a sure win method, I don't mean a holy grail (it means differently to everyone anyway), the sure win method I want is a trading set-up that can end a series of trade with profit, something like re-averaging cost method.

Before I found your thread few days ago, I have read several trading method discussed in FF, all use indicators (some are so complex that I cannot cope) except one kind of method based on breakout concept. I have go indept study a method discussed that is as follow :

Find a zone (using some MA cross or whatever) that we think price action most likely not staying long (i.e avoid congesting area), e.g :

____________________________ 1.5430 (Buy with 1.5420 as stoploss)

____________________________ 1.5420 (Sell with 1.5430 as stoploss)

Repeat the buy and sell until the breakout go either way to reach the TP target, says a Risk/Return ratio of 1:4. The R/R ratio, the lot size during the buy & sell progression is changaeble acoording to individual. Details of it was discussed in 2 threads in FF in Trading System category. I have even make myself an amendment of the lot size calculation sheet (hope the creator don't mind) as per the attachment. It has pro & con, the setback is to have large capital in order to be safe.

For your question in blue, Ans : I don't mind the winning scout beacuse if I'm able to rescue a scout in trouble maybe even with profit, I rather save the money (reserve a bit capital) by having an imaginery scout to be rescue. Please don't misunderstand me to be self-opinion, it is just my thought at the moment based on theory.

Thank you for your reply, and I hope to receive your comments of my thought and the method mentioned above.

Regards,

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Quoting Billionaire

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Hi Mr FTI,

Today, I some sort of trying your concept to dance in the market (Gold & Silver trading as I am in a 2 weeks contest organised by OSK Asia Precious Metals Limited). I now realised that having an imaginary scout will lost some feel of the market as at least, I am not able to feel the "speed" of the market where the imaginary scout was sent to. So no imagination but reality now.

I knew that you do not advocate trading rigidly such as the method I mentioned. But I appreciated very much to have a super veteran (A group of people that I can hardly meet and talked to) to comment on the pro & con aspect of the method. FYI, my point of view is price action will ultimately goes farther (up or down) from a fixed entry level after sometimes (maybe a short or long time), so, if one has sufficient capital to start small like your MO, is the method still viable ?

Kindly let me know & my apology if this is not appropriate to discuss the above in your thread. Thank you.

Regards,

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Quoting fti

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Hi
Sorry ,due to different mindset and MO, I cannot comment at the mom.
My brains are totally engaged in battle mode carrying loss book.


regards

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Quoting hemal011

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Market simply ignored the ECB rate decision. All depends on Trichet's speech it seems.

fti -> Is it preparation or actually everyone is on sidelines ?

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Quoting Jmx

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Hi FTI and the Rest,

I am new in Forex market had gone thru only afew pages so far...

It is good learning center here hope to learn more from you guys...

BTW I am reading Elliott Wave and I notice that the last move looks like wave B. Hopefully FTI, can maybe give me more advise is it good to follow elliott wave.

Regards

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Quoting auxesis

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Keep reading through the thread and his answers are there.

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