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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #105,881
  • Aug 6, 2008 12:43pm Aug 6, 2008 12:43pm
Now 220 seems to be in cards ..may be in another 1-2 months

Here is my chart..

http://www.lolpal.com/files/pz2dwo9r...0rqx_thumb.gif
  • #105,882
  • Aug 6, 2008 12:46pm Aug 6, 2008 12:46pm
Quoting Piters
Scalping only.. one of the crazy trades.. SL is just 20-30pips above..


61,8 FIBO from 215.60, + 5sma High (daily) + 200ema(daily) ...finished

pins on 1h on UY + GY..

.. possible, retrace.. Targeting 50ema[1h], gann[1h]

if played GOOD, if not -> not a big deal: R:R is very good... from this point..
We shal see!!!
Price does what price wants , I just need to be prepared.
  • #105,883
  • Aug 6, 2008 12:49pm Aug 6, 2008 12:49pm
Quoting PJkiller
We shal see!!!
Only..
  • #105,884
  • Aug 6, 2008 12:52pm Aug 6, 2008 12:52pm
Quoting Big Bruv
mornin pips or should i say afternoon...hmmm looks like GJ decided to bounce earlier than i predicted...oh well gives me an opportunity to add to my shorts...213.88 looking spicey...baby

an arguement i had with a trading buddy of mine yesterday ... he was going short I said why ignore the trend .

Now it is not only the trend but the markets / gold / oil support gj going higher from ehere.

In bad times when all news was bad .. loosses every where gj went form 192 to 215.

why when the fundies align with the technicals would everyone go short ??? not sure that makes sense to me. but hey there has to be a bull and a bear to every sales otherwise the market just does not work

A break of 213.5 and we are above the bear flag on the 4 hour and will almost be above the centre of the 4 hour channel

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.gif Size: 23 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #105,885
  • Aug 6, 2008 1:05pm Aug 6, 2008 1:05pm
Quoting malcolmb14
an arguement i had with a trading buddy of mine yesterday ... he was going short I said why ignore the trend .

Now it is not only the trend but the markets / gold / oil support gj going higher from ehere.

In bad times when all news was bad .. loosses every where gj went form 192 to 215.

why when the fundies align with the technicals would everyone go short ??? not sure that makes sense to me. but hey there has to be a bull and a bear to every sales otherwise the market just does not work

A break of 213.5 and we are above the bear flag on the 4 hour and will almost be above the centre of the 4 hour channel

Attachment
i agree, at this stage with gbp/jpy im only looking for oppertunities to go long as i believe long is the short term trend
  • #105,886
  • Aug 6, 2008 1:17pm Aug 6, 2008 1:17pm
GY chart 240: retrace @ FIBO 78.6 and upper TL on 4H:

http://doske.com/Charts/ES-33.png

DAILY CHART: Retarce @ FIBO 61.8 + 5sma(high) + 200Ema

http://doske.com/Charts/ES-34.png


But This are my Targets: my SL is only 30pips above the high:

http://doske.com/Charts/ES-35.png
  • #105,887
  • Aug 6, 2008 1:22pm Aug 6, 2008 1:22pm
Quoting malcolmb14
an arguement i had with a trading buddy of mine yesterday ... he was going short I said why ignore the trend .

Now it is not only the trend but the markets / gold / oil support gj going higher from ehere.

In bad times when all news was bad .. loosses every where gj went form 192 to 215.

why when the fundies align with the technicals would everyone go short ??? not sure that makes sense to me. but hey there has to be a bull and a bear to every sales otherwise the market just does not work

A break of 213.5 and we are above the bear flag on the 4 hour and will almost be above the centre of the 4 hour channel

Attachment
Like most people here..i'm still learning..however note..i see things on a very long term basis so i'm not into the intraday moves..this is probably why i spend so much time on here..baby

What i see this month is a fall to 204...i've been short since 215..so i do not intend closing my short until i see a close above 214.50...baby

i could be wrong...but my view is the fundies do not support a bullish GBP..i'm bullish YEN.
  • #105,888
  • Aug 6, 2008 1:27pm Aug 6, 2008 1:27pm
I'm not planning on closing my longs till after 5pm est for triple interest then going short from there
  • #105,889
  • Aug 6, 2008 1:30pm Aug 6, 2008 1:30pm
Quoting Big Bruv

i could be wrong...but my view is the fundies do not support a bullish GBP..i'm bullish YEN.
YEN was very weak today.. this is the reason.. why: H&S on 4H

http://doske.com/Charts/ds37.gif
  • #105,890
  • Aug 6, 2008 1:36pm Aug 6, 2008 1:36pm
Quoting Big Bruv
Like most people here..i'm still learning..however note..i see things on a very long term basis so i'm not into the intraday moves..this is probably why i spend so much time on here..baby

What i see this month is a fall to 204...i've been short since 215..so i do not intend closing my short until i see a close above 214.50...baby

i could be wrong...but my view is the fundies do not support a bullish GBP..i'm bullish YEN.

The set up looks like a classic flag to me. Break out of trend line on the 4 hour and the top of the flag is broken ... price could form that 217 / 220 area at top of MAIN channel .. that I think is wave 3. I think this flag could be the a-b-c correction in the main wave up. But then I am new to ew theory.

Just plotting the old 1-2-3 buy formation on the 4 hour with the low at 204, high at 216 and low at 210.5 ish I get fes to

214.77 ,
217.50
221.60

now do not get me wrong i will trade this sucker up and down ....

but in longer term and using waves .. .one of three primary rules of EW theory wave 3 has to be longer than wave 1 ... we are still wave 3 this has not finished yet and could end up there at 217 zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.gif Size: 28 KB
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  • #105,891
  • Aug 6, 2008 1:41pm Aug 6, 2008 1:41pm
Quoting malcolmb14
but in longer term and using waves .. .one of three primary rules of EW theory wave 3 has to be longer than wave 1 ... we are still wave 3 this has not finished yet and could end up there at 217 zone.

Attachment
One correction Malcolm

Wave 3 is not the Shortest wave,

mean that can be shorter than wave 1, but then wave5 has to be shorter than wave 3.. or vice versa. Which gives us a different count. From the other side If you are looking @ wave 4 on weekly (we are now in), then wave 4 is corrective, mean usually goes in 3 waves. or zig zag formation. Until we get the confirmation for ending of wave 4, we are still in correction. (you, aus, and others are right, we might see upper price like 217 or so.)
  • #105,892
  • Aug 6, 2008 1:46pm Aug 6, 2008 1:46pm
Quoting malcolmb14
The set up looks like a classic flag to me. Break out of trend line on the 4 hour and the top of the flag is broken ... price could form that 217 / 220 area at top of MAIN channel .. that I think is wave 3. I think this flag could be the a-b-c correction in the main wave up. But then I am new to ew theory.

Attachment
yep thanks bro..i deffo see it..i can see a case for longs but i'm not going long till at least i see a close above the GanHilo....baby

my bias will change if this happens..i'm learning all the time especially trying to use smaller TF's @ the minute i only trade off the weekly and use daily for confirmation.

If i see a close above 214.80 on the daily i'm Deffo going Long..baby
  • #105,893
  • Aug 6, 2008 1:47pm Aug 6, 2008 1:47pm
Quoting Piters
One correction Malcolm

Wave 3 is not the Shortest wave,

mean that can be shorter than wave 1, but then wave5 has to be shorter than wave 3.. or vice versa.

wrong one of three rules that most elliot wave guys get wrong all the time is that wave 3 has to be longer than wave 1 ... it cannot be shorter.

Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1.

also been studying Robert Prechters cds .... he says only three rules ...rule 2 is that wave 3 has to be longer than wave 1 and 90% of ew guys break that rule all the time..
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #105,894
  • Aug 6, 2008 1:47pm Aug 6, 2008 1:47pm
Please look @ this form, it is usefull, describes everything..
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf EW Cheat Sheet.pdf   113 KB | 509 downloads
  • #105,895
  • Aug 6, 2008 1:49pm Aug 6, 2008 1:49pm
Quoting malcolmb14
wrong one of three rules that most elliot wave guys get wrong all the time is that wave 3 has to be longer than wave 1 ... it cannot be shorter.

Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1.

also been studying Robert Prechters cds .... he says only three rules ...rule 2 is that wave 3 has to be longer than wave 1 and 90% of ew guys break that rule all the time..

only got thru the 1st 2 .... put me to sleep a few times lol
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #105,896
  • Aug 6, 2008 1:53pm Aug 6, 2008 1:53pm
Quoting Piters
Please look @ this form, it is usefull, describes everything..

that is awesome thanks and greek to me at the moment ....

cannot wait to get thru all the course . I much prefer fib expansion on 1-2-3 set ups ,and was hoping to use the waves to verify which fe we were going to for swing trades as frankly my swing trading sucks ...lol.

I get along better with the 10 min chart.

did ok on gbpjpy , gbpchf and gbpaud today
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #105,897
  • Aug 6, 2008 1:54pm Aug 6, 2008 1:54pm
ym is ripping ..... check out Lilmoes new futures thread

I post abit in there on open range trading and breakout trading ...YM only moved 370 points so far today
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #105,898
  • Aug 6, 2008 1:55pm Aug 6, 2008 1:55pm
Quoting malcolmb14
eurjpy may test 169.6 ... broke the downward trend line / channel , been long this one since 167.90
Yes I agree with you. I'm targeting 156 as my long term plan. EJ has been clear to me these days. I think when GJ's huge fall starts, EJ will drop like a rock to very low levels. First 163 and then lower.
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #105,899
  • Aug 6, 2008 1:55pm Aug 6, 2008 1:55pm
Quoting malcolmb14
only got thru the 1st 2 .... put me to sleep a few times lol
how about life seminar... LOL..

Anyway, look @ tha PDF.. I agree with you most of the times, but I know that rules, so maybe there is also more EW theories...

My view is that we are still in corrective wave4. but this is another topic, we can discuss maybe some other time.. it is my time to sleep now 4:45 am
  • #105,900
  • Aug 6, 2008 1:57pm Aug 6, 2008 1:57pm
malcolmb, my daily candle closes in 2 hours,
IŽll wait this time, but then IŽll give you confirmation
of your bulish analyses.


Quoting malcolmb14
The set up looks like a classic flag to me. Break out of trend line on the 4 hour and the top of the flag is broken ... price could form that 217 / 220 area at top of MAIN channel .. that I think is wave 3. I think this flag could be the a-b-c correction in the main wave up. But then I am new to ew theory.

Just plotting the old 1-2-3 buy formation on the 4 hour with the low at 204, high at 216 and low at 210.5 ish I get fes to

214.77 ,
217.50
221.60

now do not get me wrong i will trade this sucker up and down ....

but in longer term and using waves .. .one of three primary rules of EW theory wave 3 has to be longer than wave 1 ... we are still wave 3 this has not finished yet and could end up there at 217 zone.

Attachment
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