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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #5,001
  • Aug 6, 2008 10:18am Aug 6, 2008 10:18am
Here we go back into predictions, again.

Last week we saw price try a double bottom only to form a descending triangle, continuation pattern and price has broken the 5520 floor, which has been tested and held so far.

We had a couple of corrections last weeks end but we are now making lower lows / lower highs.

Price is $ bull, so how can any one now say that they are looking $ bear?????????????????????????????????????????????????????

I received a whipping for this last week
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  • #5,002
  • Aug 6, 2008 10:21am Aug 6, 2008 10:21am
Quoting Green_David
Hi, FTI:

It seems you wrote some foul language? Couldn't understand it, a slang?
What foul language, ask anyone from HK . They'll explain it to you. It is a powerful strategy to correct the mindset.

Is USD bull running the last wave(wave 5)?
Would E/U test support zone 5400~5300?
Would G/u test support zone 9350~9450?
Would U/J meet 110 resistance?

All of the above

I know "no prediction", and I paid also dearly cost for this lesson. But special attention shall be paid to.
regards
  • #5,003
  • Aug 6, 2008 10:26am Aug 6, 2008 10:26am
Quoting auxesis
Here we go back into predictions, again.

Last week we saw price try a double bottom only to form a descending triangle, continuation pattern and price has broken the 5520 floor, which has been tested and held so far.

We had a couple of corrections last weeks end but we are now making lower lows / lower highs.

Price is $ bull, so how can any one now say that they are looking $ bear?????????????????????????????????????????????????????

I received a whipping for this last week
Hi auxesis,

The media info releases all suggest that it is one of the possibilities, like always.
Moreover, people like the exitement of catching falling knifes.
There's no lesson like getting wacked on the head. then maybe, they will remember it.

I guess its hard for people to learn to feel pulse, but they most certainly can feel what (unaccountable) people's suggestions.


regards
  • #5,004
  • Aug 6, 2008 10:30am Aug 6, 2008 10:30am
Quoting Rainman
That works when the market is in tight range. But when market trends hard you could find one of your scouts 2-300 pips under. Capital used to rescue it would be better used on right side of trend. Best to kill scout at this point so really no point.
Actually, I believe you meant the opposite...in a tight range, rescue works extremnly well...rememeber we only rescue with the trend, never against the trend...as soon as we see that the trend is against up, rescuing is very risky.

What I meant: I have my scout (remember 1/6 full size for my waves), I see the trend change...what do I do? I cannot rescue against impulse or trend...

then I have 4 choices, (1)kill the poor soldier and go with the trend [definitely best solution and you are a pig], (2) forget about the poor man/woman and trade U/CH or U/J [and you are a traitor], (3) the dynamic hedging I practiced today [and you are a LOST man], or (4) freeze and pull the plug [worse case]

Hey...this is what I understand so far...I hope this help you...
I'd better keep learning...every day a lesson...
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #5,005
  • Aug 6, 2008 10:47am Aug 6, 2008 10:47am
Quoting luSan
Actually, I believe you meant the opposite...in a tight range, rescue works extremnly well...rememeber we only rescue with the trend, never against the trend...as soon as we see that the trend is against up, rescuing is very risky.

What I meant: I have my scout (remember 1/6 full size for my waves), I see the trend change...what do I do? I cannot rescue against impulse or trend...

then I have 4 choices, (1)kill the poor soldier and go with the trend [definitely best solution and you are a pig], (2) forget about the poor man/woman and trade U/CH or U/J [and you are a traitor], (3) the dynamic hedging I practiced today [and you are a LOST man], or (4) freeze and pull the plug [worse case]

Hey...this is what I understand so far...I hope this help you...
I'd better keep learning...every day a lesson...
Hi,
There is only one right thing to do.
Turn onwind.
The people who have vested interest is big, they are the wind for now.
Why do people wanna swim against the flow? Please tell me why.
Sure the logic does not click, How can an enconomy in depression be buyable?
Yes, but people are buying it, and they are big.
So why do you wanna fight them? Are you bigger?

Yeah , trying to master complex strategies, when you cannot even master one is foolish ! very foolish.

Its exackly what I said , 著虫進肛門, catching worm and putting it up your anus. Why be an itchy hindside.

You go looking for trouble in the market carrying that chip on your shoulder , and rest assured, YOU WILL FIND IT.


regards
  • #5,006
  • Aug 6, 2008 10:51am Aug 6, 2008 10:51am
Lusan is a modern day Paul Neuman

Inserted Video
  • #5,007
  • Aug 6, 2008 10:53am Aug 6, 2008 10:53am
Lusan ur not a pig if u trade with the trend.

It seems that the pig word, doesnt go well with you. hehe. If you were long, the only way was to fight to save the book, u did the right thing there, but im not familiar with ur hedge tho. Dont break too much brain cells on it. i was already confused with the trend during asia, fti said 'foggy'. Technically there was no bull in sight on the longer charts yet. Any long trades must be kept nimble. coz u know ur swimming against the wave.

I will make only 1 option when i know i am trading against the trend : Cut and switch.
If i am trading with the trend but got the wrong swing on small frame : Rescue....

You are after all trading price, there really no neural science other than managing skews.

best regards my friend
  • #5,008
  • Aug 6, 2008 10:58am Aug 6, 2008 10:58am
Quoting fti
Hi,
There is only one right thing to do.
Turn onwind.
The people who have vested interest is big, they are the wind for now.
Why do people wanna swim against the flow? Please tell me why.
Sure the logic does not click, How can an enconomy in depression be buyable?
Yes, but people are buying it, and they are big.
So why do you wanna fight them? Are you bigger?
Nothing make sense...the US economy is in trouble, people are confused..the dollar is very weak...Stock market went up while dollar went to hell...Now dollar is suddenly strong and the market is going up!?...what is this?...Oil is falling like a rock on a deep well...a good predictor of economical contractions...China games are ongong...so their construction business will slowdown or stop...higher unemployment?...economical constraction?...so many factors...worldwide high inflation all over...But we follow PA and the trend is down..

Quoting fti
Yeah , trying to master complex strategies, when you cannot even master one is foolish ! very foolish.
Foolish. Before I was a pig, now I am mr. LOST and I carry a funny worm.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #5,009
  • Edited 11:28am Aug 6, 2008 11:06am | Edited 11:28am
Hi Lusan

Do you know how many pips I had collected today?

I took profits too early more than 3 times.
The last one was at 27.

Now I am long USD again at 14, 10, 07
Just go with the flow, why is that so difficult?
WHY?

Have you ever heard of the term "foolish intelligent".
What matters is book. If its losing money, all the intelligence does not matter.You are still losing.

You are NOT dancing the market. You are trying to predict it by your intelligence. If the market doesn't follow your intelligence. It can only mean that she is dancing something else. Something that your are not privy to,now.

regards

s x 17

It seems to me that the more skillful you think you have become the more rigid your mindset. Watch that egor !

S X 13
  • #5,010
  • Aug 6, 2008 11:30am Aug 6, 2008 11:30am
Quoting fti
Hi Lusan

Do you know how many pips I had collected today?

I took profits too early more than 3 times.
The last one was at 27.

Now I am long USD again at 14, 10, 07
Just go with the flow, why is that so difficult?
WHY?

Have you ever heard of the term "foolish intelligent".
What matters is book. If its losing money, all the intelligence does not matter.You are still losing.

You are NOT dancing the market. You are trying to predict it by your intelligence. If the market doesn't follow your intelligence. It can only mean that she is dancing something else. Something that your are not privy to,now.

regards
Fti, bear with me...My training is in experimental science...I learn by running tests and by being honest with the results...my nature...

My book was not hurted at all: I needed to make a decision: Either turn around or experiment this idea...I chose to experiment...I did not even make a prediction. I saw as an opportunity for testing....totally agree: this was not a dance.

After the fact, from the profit making point of view, if the impulse is strong, I would go strongly go with it...That is the most important lesson I learend today....and that is what I will do next time...Actually this is what I normally do.

but if the news is coming out and I have losing positions that I do not want to close, I will not stand as a sitting dock nor close them..I will probably do it again!

Again, I have not losses (book happy) but I do not recommend anyone to try this thing...fair enough?
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #5,011
  • Aug 6, 2008 11:35am Aug 6, 2008 11:35am
Quoting fti
Hi Lusan

Do you know how many pips I had collected today?

I took profits too early more than 3 times.
The last one was at 27.

Now I am long USD again at 14, 10, 07
Just go with the flow, why is that so difficult?
WHY?

Have you ever heard of the term "foolish intelligent".
What matters is book. If its losing money, all the intelligence does not matter.You are still losing.

You are NOT dancing the market. You are trying to predict it by your intelligence. If the market doesn't follow your intelligence. It can only mean that she is dancing something else. Something that your are not privy to,now.

regards

s x 17

It seems to me that the more skillful you think you have become the more rigid your mindset. Watch that egor !

S X 13
Hi, fti:

Now E/U is 22, what did you do with these two openned positions?
  • #5,012
  • Aug 6, 2008 11:50am Aug 6, 2008 11:50am
S x 19

ok now you're on your own.
I am preparing for attack sequenses/

regards
  • #5,013
  • Aug 6, 2008 11:52am Aug 6, 2008 11:52am
Quoting Green_David
Hi, fti:

Now E/U is 22, what did you do with these two openned positions?
What two positions.

S x ,14, 10, 07,17, 13, 19,

regards
  • #5,014
  • Aug 6, 2008 11:58am Aug 6, 2008 11:58am
Quoting fti
What two positions.

S x ,14, 10, 07,17, 13, 19,

regards
Yes, with all these short positions. Now it is 30, where is the flow?

Today, I cut the loss @60, and no trading after that.
  • #5,015
  • Aug 6, 2008 12:00pm Aug 6, 2008 12:00pm
david u read wrong...he is selling dollar
  • #5,016
  • Aug 6, 2008 12:11pm Aug 6, 2008 12:11pm
Quoting jest1081
david u read wrong...he is selling dollar
Long Dollar?
  • #5,017
  • Aug 6, 2008 12:14pm Aug 6, 2008 12:14pm
Jest ...read post #5015
  • #5,018
  • Aug 6, 2008 12:28pm Aug 6, 2008 12:28pm
Quoting seeit
Jest ...read post #5015
oh me bad
  • #5,019
  • Aug 6, 2008 12:37pm Aug 6, 2008 12:37pm
Quoting fti
Hi billionaire,
Yes it is very creative, BUT

A scout is exposure, it is trading, when wrong , you may have saved money. but when right, How are you going to initiate that position in a market thats away??

For me , my scout is correct most of the time , and that allows foreign capital for attacks. if wrong I skew to save them.
Tell me how your MO may look like?

regards
Hi Mr FTI,
Thank you for the reply. I am actually searching and building a MO that suits me personally. I have ponder about indicators & price action for few months, and realised on my own that price action is the ultimate indicator. I think I have overly done it because I believe price action moves randomly. We can guess the upcoming up & down based on price action, but at the end is 50/50 chance to be right, the longer term we guess, the less probability to be right. So, I agree with the concept that : to cut your losses and let the profit run, however, this need a trading method/system that need to be followed exactly with discipline. But, I am not 100% satisfied with it, what I want is a sure win method, I don't mean a holy grail (it means differently to everyone anyway), the sure win method I want is a trading set-up that can end a series of trade with profit, something like re-averaging cost method.

Before I found your thread few days ago, I have read several trading method discussed in FF, all use indicators (some are so complex that I cannot cope) except one kind of method based on breakout concept. I have go indept study a method discussed that is as follow :

Find a zone (using some MA cross or whatever) that we think price action most likely not staying long (i.e avoid congesting area), e.g :

____________________________ 1.5430 (Buy with 1.5420 as stoploss)

____________________________ 1.5420 (Sell with 1.5430 as stoploss)

Repeat the buy and sell until the breakout go either way to reach the TP target, says a Risk/Return ratio of 1:4. The R/R ratio, the lot size during the buy & sell progression is changaeble acoording to individual. Details of it was discussed in 2 threads in FF in Trading System category. I have even make myself an amendment of the lot size calculation sheet (hope the creator don't mind) as per the attachment. It has pro & con, the setback is to have large capital in order to be safe.

For your question in blue, Ans : I don't mind the winning scout beacuse if I'm able to rescue a scout in trouble maybe even with profit, I rather save the money (reserve a bit capital) by having an imaginery scout to be rescue. Please don't misunderstand me to be self-opinion, it is just my thought at the moment based on theory.

Thank you for your reply, and I hope to receive your comments of my thought and the method mentioned above.

Regards,
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  • #5,020
  • Aug 6, 2008 12:43pm Aug 6, 2008 12:43pm
possible small inverted crown forming on the 5's careful.

Move may be running out of steam for the session, looking for equilibrium
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