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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #4,961
  • Aug 5, 2008 7:51pm Aug 5, 2008 7:51pm
Hi friends,

Dow went crazy euphoric yesterday.
Hourly indicates that USD may be reaching ceiling.

Im unsure of the trend right now, it would have been a smart option if we had stretched th range the past few days.

im not sure of anything yet right now. Data shows weak US, fomc already indicated that, the inability to increase rates and decrease it.

My predictive me thinks USD may float for a while as the rest of the world economy take a tumble and proly go on interest cuts. Thus, im not expecting anything spectacular on the YEN, but gbp, aussie and to a certain point euro, may pin the trend.

The above is of course just a mere opinion, it should not be pre-empted into my intraday trading mindset, coz it may kill me. follow where the hot money goes. Technically usd bulls are losing momentum.

Sitting out...
  • #4,962
  • Aug 5, 2008 9:23pm Aug 5, 2008 9:23pm
Fti,

I think the answer to this is yes, but asking for clarity. Do you increase the aggressiveness of the skew when price action on all time frames is in your favor?

One of my first mentors, a blacklisted professional blackjack player taught about the need for unleveled positioning. there are trades that are better setups than others, when the really good ones come along best get large.

There's been a couple of times when your positioning is larger than others, just trying to visualize the mindset. When overall daily hourly all is sinc, or ???

curious,

regards,
a
  • #4,963
  • Aug 5, 2008 9:47pm Aug 5, 2008 9:47pm
Quoting jest1081
Hi friends,

Dow went crazy euphoric yesterday.
Hourly indicates that USD may be reaching ceiling.

Im unsure of the trend right now, it would have been a smart option if we had stretched th range the past few days.

im not sure of anything yet right now. Data shows weak US, fomc already indicated that, the inability to increase rates and decrease it.

My predictive me thinks USD may float for a while as the rest of the world economy take a tumble and proly go on interest cuts. Thus, im not expecting anything spectacular on the YEN, but gbp, aussie and to a certain point euro, may pin the trend.

The above is of course just a mere opinion, it should not be pre-empted into my intraday trading mindset, coz it may kill me. follow where the hot money goes. Technically usd bulls are losing momentum.

Sitting out...
Hi jest,

It is foggy now, very.
The USD bears are mostly in bad bad shape.
The Usd bulls , well, they are not incline to turn bears yet due to daily chart considerations, YET.

Although the US may be in recession. everyone 's kissing it with optimistic opinions ,due to vested interest , and HOPing for the best.

So this is just bear test grounds.

UNLIKE, all these people , I am ronin.
I go where the money is, so am early bear against the daily charts. This is because I am disappointed with the rates announcement and that the BULL momentum suddenly died. But I am not stupid, so my skews are inwards and downsized. This is for safety in case he bulls comes charging again.
For now no one knows what to expect in the longer term for the USD. So I will be a little stream that flows away from the River. But when the river comes arushing, I will up skew.

For now am just flowing, too foggy to see anything.

regards
  • #4,964
  • Aug 5, 2008 9:58pm Aug 5, 2008 9:58pm
Good morning FTI,
I have been the occasional observer since discovering your thread in February. After 6 months of my losing money with signal services and learning TA, your MO made a lot of sense. So I began trying to adapt it into my trading. After many great victories and disastrous losses with my new sword. I must say I'm a much better trader and enjoy trading more each day due to your lessons.

After each big loss I would come back to your thread to refresh myself on the MO and tame my scorpion. The last few weeks your updates and running battles have really put all the pieces to your puzzle together for me. I hope you feel like your time and effort here is worth it. It is much appreciated by myself and lots of others I'm sure.

So thank you for sharing your experience here with us. You are a very wise and generous man to give so freely. You have helped us learn a great skill and I'll be thankful to you for the rest of my life.

thanks,
Brandon
  • #4,965
  • Aug 5, 2008 10:05pm Aug 5, 2008 10:05pm
Quoting auxesis
Fti,

I think the answer to this is yes, but asking for clarity. Do you increase the aggressiveness of the skew when price action on all time frames is in your favor?

One of my first mentors, a blacklisted professional blackjack player taught about the need for unleveled positioning. there are trades that are better setups than others, when the really good ones come along best get large.

There's been a couple of times when your positioning is larger than others, just trying to visualize the mindset. When overall daily hourly all is sinc, or ???

curious,

regards,
a
Hi auxesis,
I spiral within spirals, but this is complicated.
There are no rules, It depends on experience.
The change is dependent on several factors,
form, depending on the rhytym,
shape, depending on the volitility and sigma,
book, depending on foreign capital levels,
When aggressive, I skip rightwards levels of progressions,
when defensive, I skip leftwards levels of progressions.

That is why you sometime see me stay a progression, a few times , before moving along. This stay is the precursor to the mode change that will come by. This is not easy to understand, unless you are very experienced with the MO and MM you are being introduced to. When you become more season in the methodology this tweaking , it just comes. It like a natural development to another stage of skills.

It is difficult to explain, this further takes out any rigidity, and that the risk taking shifts more and more to experience from the initial MO. But for many here, the initial basic AOW MO is still not within their grasp, yet.

regards
  • #4,966
  • Aug 5, 2008 10:11pm Aug 5, 2008 10:11pm
Quoting fxwolfe
Good morning FTI,
I have been the occasional observer since discovering your thread in February. After 6 months of my losing money with signal services and learning TA, your MO made a lot of sense. So I began trying to adapt it into my trading. After many great victories and disastrous losses with my new sword. I must say I'm a much better trader and enjoy trading more each day due to your lessons.

After each big loss I would come back to your thread to refresh myself on the MO and tame my scorpion. The last few weeks your updates and running battles have really put all the pieces to your puzzle together for me. I hope you feel like your time and effort here is worth it. It is much appreciated by myself and lots of others I'm sure.

So thank you for sharing your experience here with us. You are a very wise and generous man to give so freely. You have helped us learn a great skill and I'll be thankful to you for the rest of my life.

thanks,
Brandon
Hi Brandon,

Thank You for your kind words.
I am glad to have helped.

Good Fortune.
regards
  • #4,967
  • Aug 5, 2008 10:24pm Aug 5, 2008 10:24pm
fti,

again, i found myself playing at the 80 level. yest fomc was dissapointing. I regretted staying up lol but i had suspected that i may have to wait for asia to find anything lucrative. I did away with some 18pips downwards, reduced the skew and closed out after the announcement. Did you see how clueless the markets reaction was after the announcement? It went up and down and there, NY boys did it again, they're becoming the backstreet boys of fx now...

I think that did it for me, clues are suggesting that they dont want a dollar to go beyond 400, now we have to see how accepting they are towards 500.

10 members here, only 8 visible. 2 Ronins, are u one em, fti? lol, i think i should be ronin too.
  • #4,968
  • Aug 5, 2008 11:30pm Aug 5, 2008 11:30pm
Quoting jest1081
fti,

again, i found myself playing at the 80 level. yest fomc was dissapointing. I regretted staying up lol but i had suspected that i may have to wait for asia to find anything lucrative. I did away with some 18pips downwards, reduced the skew and closed out after the announcement. Did you see how clueless the markets reaction was after the announcement? It went up and down and there, NY boys did it again, they're becoming the backstreet boys of fx now...

I think that did it for me, clues are suggesting that they dont want a dollar to go beyond 400, now we have to see how accepting they are towards 500.

10 members here, only 8 visible. 2 Ronins, are u one em, fti? lol, i think i should be ronin too.
Hi jest,
If you want to know my opinion, I do not believe the plays now are coming from the US. I believe the "investors" had punped alot into USD and are doing everything possible to prop up the USD, I don't know if this is with the feds blessings, but it sure is working favourably for them to have ronins fight the battle for them.

Anyway, I don't care how big or powerful they are or may be. I trust the girls, they will go where it should be ultimately. Only that manipulation , will make the journey more painful than otherwise.

No , jest , I was signed out for lunch, just got back. Those arn't ronins. they 're ninjas.
I am trying to find out who they are, and excommunicate them. Otherwise failing , this thread dies.


regards
  • #4,969
  • Aug 5, 2008 11:39pm Aug 5, 2008 11:39pm
i am a lurker and learner just identifying myself - lol
  • #4,970
  • Aug 5, 2008 11:42pm Aug 5, 2008 11:42pm
Quoting fti
Hi jest,
If you want to know my opinion, I do not believe the plays now are coming from the US. I believe the "investors" had punped alot into USD and are doing everything possible to prop up the USD, I don't know if this is with the feds blessings, but it sure is working favourably for them to have ronins fight the battle for them.

Anyway, I don't care how big or powerful they are or may be. I trust the girls, they will go where it should be ultimately. Only that manipulation , will make the journey more painful than otherwise.

No , jest , I was signed out for lunch, just got back. Those arn't ronins. they 're ninjas.
I am trying to find out who they are, and excommunicate them. Otherwise failing , this thread dies.


regards

There is always ninjas, an all threats on FF fti, dont't worry about them. There is always a peoples hiding behind. they like ""watching""

I noticed that on other threat is the same situation, whenever the technology gives them a right, they are using.. (what is the difference between guests and ninjas? ) thay are the same !!
  • #4,971
  • Aug 6, 2008 12:05am Aug 6, 2008 12:05am
Quoting Piters
There is always ninjas, an all threats on FF fti, dont't worry about them. There is always a peoples hiding behind. they like ""watching""

I noticed that on other threat is the same situation, whenever the technology gives them a right, they are using.. (what is the difference between guests and ninjas? ) thay are the same !!
Hi Piters,

I guess what you say is true. There's always ninjas everywhere in life.
But it would be nice to be able to identify the hostiles from the friendlys.
Not that all friendlys will be allies, but at least knowing helps to avoid certain dangers.

I wonder, if there are such rooms somewhere. But this is chicken and egg thingy. Sure don't want to exclude people trying to learn. For now I guess I will depend on the mods as protection mechanism , unless something untowards happens again.

regards
  • #4,972
  • Edited 2:36am Aug 6, 2008 12:13am | Edited 2:36am
Quoting fti
Hi Piters,

I guess what you say is true. There's always ninjas everywhere in life.
But it would be nice to be able to identify the hostiles from the friendlys.
Not that all friendlys will be allies, but at least knowing helps to avoid certain dangers.

I wonder, if there are such rooms somewhere. But this is chicken and egg thingy. Sure don't want to exclude people trying to learn. For now I guess I will depend on the mods as protection mechanism , unless something untowards happens again.

regards
I agree, at least there must be an option that the "invisible mode" is not invisible for owners (members who started) of the threats.

But this is an Internet, and this is the public forum, I am sorry that you feel that way, but Honestly it is very little chances for any changes. (IMHO)

there is only few options, but first is to talk with the FF.

Thank you for your time and effort FTI..
  • #4,973
  • Aug 6, 2008 1:04am Aug 6, 2008 1:04am
Quoting piccolo
Hi MaMood, the scripts.. did you have time?
Hi piccolo,

no - sorry. Not finished yet.

There are so much tasks on my list and only small time.
But I have not forgotten about that.
You can be sure, it's in progress ....
  • #4,974
  • Aug 6, 2008 2:25am Aug 6, 2008 2:25am
wow eur looks like its well herded. i wonder whos the sheperd.
  • #4,975
  • Aug 6, 2008 2:36am Aug 6, 2008 2:36am
Hello Fti,

Thought I'd speak up since lurking on your thread for so long.

Thank you for sharing your wisdom with us.

I have truly enjoyed the lessons.

R
Enter Signature
  • #4,976
  • Edited 7:35am Aug 6, 2008 3:26am | Edited 7:35am
Good Morning and good night..

I do not like this type of candle..A bullish Harami in a falling trend...and on top of 5M is going up...fishy, unclear game...Mixed directions...Bulkowski talks about statistical randomness...etc...

Back to bed..I am out..this market is good only for the braves..Enjoy!

Edit: back at 8:00. Bulls are back and gave 3 steps down.

PS: Yes, I know that this is and incomplete candle...but this is also forex and I am not aware of anyone that have done an statistical analysis of forex candles...
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #4,977
  • Aug 6, 2008 3:46am Aug 6, 2008 3:46am
good evening fti and all

fti, I am most often sitting at the back of the class (revision way back in thread) this is when I don't sign in. I feel you have enough to deal with... your own trading and your top students take all your time and I didn't want to detract from that...I feel I am not the only one that does this, however I will respect your wishes and always sign in and am so sorry if I have caused any unease or distress.

joy
  • #4,978
  • Aug 6, 2008 4:12am Aug 6, 2008 4:12am
Hello all, just want to reassure all of you that I am nothing but an interested observer at this time. I am very new to this forex game. About 3 months live trading. So far all I have managed to do is get my butt kicked. Guess that's what you call paying school fees. LOL. Anyway, I am determined to learn and to win in the end. I am currently exploring a few threads on FF. Trying to find those that are seriouse about forex and learn from them. So many appear to be treating forex as a video game. It is not. I like the way you are approaching this battle. Hope you don't mind if I continue to listen and learn. I could really use the help. BTW it is morning here in Africa. Tom
  • #4,979
  • Aug 6, 2008 6:13am Aug 6, 2008 6:13am
hi all

am way back in thread and fti mentioned 'managed pegging' in a post ... have searched for meaning but no luck... can someone please tell me what it means.

joy
  • #4,980
  • Aug 6, 2008 6:18am Aug 6, 2008 6:18am
Hi Mr FTI,

I am not sure whether any body has ever talked about what I'm going to ask because I read till page 97 ATM.

My thought :
Instead of sending a scout into the battlefield to feel the dance, can we imagine that there was a scout already at centain point of the battlefield by looking at the chart ? Then, we will now to decide how to rescue or attack accordingly ? Maybe, this imaginary thing can be extended to cover our 1st troop of rescue/attack, can we try to be smart like that so that we can reserve more troop force ?http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

regards,
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