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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #4,861
  • Aug 4, 2008 11:22am Aug 4, 2008 11:22am
Quoting textor
Hello,

For most experienced people:

Whay do you think about this formation in 60' chart?
I saw nothing. A robot spider?
  • #4,862
  • Aug 4, 2008 11:24am Aug 4, 2008 11:24am
Quoting fti
Hi Lusan,
Why are you happy that he bulls are back,

The USD bears are in town again. Whether to stay? I don't know.
Or is it one night show only , we will know soon.

Do you have a pack with them or something.?

As traders we must be ronin, go where the money is.

regards
Ronin, that sounds so cool.
  • #4,863
  • Aug 4, 2008 11:27am Aug 4, 2008 11:27am
Quoting jimmy5330
thank you very much for the great thread (I learned a lot from here)
but my prolem i like to be in silence.
Hi jimmy,

Welcome, take what you can, learn what you must.
Its freely given.
I was a little edgy,make yourself at home.

regards
  • #4,864
  • Aug 4, 2008 11:34am Aug 4, 2008 11:34am
16:12 EUR/USD: Pavlov's Traders Rule Roost
Thin Markets Boost Vol New York, August 4th. Short staffed interbank FX teams have their work keeping up with the flow as thin liquidity on "the toys" makes it difficult to parcel flow. Traders complain that doing "30 units" in whatever major consists of a stream of ones and twos coming back, as algos provide light liquidity. The drop in oil that caught everyone off guard and squeezed a few shekels out of the P&Ls of the market makers is thought to have been aggravated by those same algos, so Pavlov's traders are in charge as thin summer markets force traders on the defensive.

EUR/USD collapsed from 1.5605 to 1.5566 but has recovered to 1.5570/75. RSI on the hourlies is in neutral, hourly oversold Bollingers 1.5535/45; overbought 1.5605/20 - the 5-day composite M/A is up at 1.5609 and when spot hit its 1.5630 peak it registered double the recommended overbought Bollinger setting, 4.0. Oil still looks weak, and the EUR is therefore still vulnerable, 1.5566 last. [email protected] /rs
  • #4,865
  • Aug 4, 2008 11:37am Aug 4, 2008 11:37am
Quoting luSan
Because I was not paying attention to the news...I forgot...so I became a real PIG...reverted got some profit....then reverted again...the bull brought back 50 % of my losses...

Learned 2 lesssons: (1) Patience and (2) no to fall in love with analysis; trade the bloody thing...

you did good...yes, daily said go south, but 5M said "I do not know. I go north for a while"..."I did not listen and I panicked." So here I am humbled one more time...still I will fight.... I think the samurai fought with the belief that today they will die, so they forfitted their life...Not a bad idea... I forfitted my account.

I am dollar bull
Hey Lusan,
That type of thinking can cripple you financially.
Fight wisely.
Didn't you learn anything from my last USD bear episode.
Go with the flow, my friend, except don't be a pig too often.
Once a while , well I guess we are human.
Don't do it for greed though.

Today was difficult, even for me. See how I had to "turn on wind".
One second late, And I would hve been road kill. But see when the ryhtym is there, its smooth as silk.

So don't go do seppuku just cos....

regards
  • #4,866
  • Aug 4, 2008 11:39am Aug 4, 2008 11:39am
Thanks Fti I learned a lot from you here & my personal life changed thanks to your insight.
please Keep the good work.
  • #4,867
  • Aug 4, 2008 11:40am Aug 4, 2008 11:40am
Quoting fti
Hey Lusan,
That type of thinking can cripple you financially.
Fight wisely.
Didn't you learn anything from my last USD bear episode.
Go with the flow, my friend, except don't be a pig too often.
Once a while , well I guess we are human.
Don't do it for greed though.

Today was difficult, even for me. See how I had to "turn on wind".
One second late, And I would hve been road kill. But see when the ryhtym is there, its smooth as silk.

So don't go do seppuku just cos....

regards
Sepuuku?...kiddding me?...Only have scout out...and waiting for the cows to come home...

the flow?...Confusing news action...my economical analysis said..."hey, good for bulls"...news, looks like a no event...we return to the beginning of london open...so bulls, I think, are fighting hard
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #4,868
  • Aug 4, 2008 11:45am Aug 4, 2008 11:45am
Quoting Mr. G.
16:12 EUR/USD: Pavlov's Traders Rule Roost
Thin Markets Boost Vol New York, August 4th. Short staffed interbank FX teams have their work keeping up with the flow as thin liquidity on "the toys" makes it difficult to parcel flow. Traders complain that doing "30 units" in whatever major consists of a stream of ones and twos coming back, as algos provide light liquidity. The drop in oil that caught everyone off guard and squeezed a few shekels out of the P&Ls of the market makers is thought to have been aggravated by those same algos, so Pavlov's traders are in charge as thin summer markets force traders on the defensive.

EUR/USD collapsed from 1.5605 to 1.5566 but has recovered to 1.5570/75. RSI on the hourlies is in neutral, hourly oversold Bollingers 1.5535/45; overbought 1.5605/20 - the 5-day composite M/A is up at 1.5609 and when spot hit its 1.5630 peak it registered double the recommended overbought Bollinger setting, 4.0. Oil still looks weak, and the EUR is therefore still vulnerable, 1.5566 last. [email protected] /rs
Hi Mr. G,
Thanks for the info.

For us , this is no summer holiday.
Do the best we can, not withstanding.
Fight tooth and nails , if we have to.

For me, gone are the days of corporation perks.
But I am blessed with freedom.

regards
  • #4,869
  • Aug 4, 2008 11:45am Aug 4, 2008 11:45am
Quoting fti
...
yes, I'll be trading Ny afternoon , gotta make the pips back,
But very cautious, as I have a skidding feeling.
Only market flow saved my behind today, I am getting rusty.

regards
Hello fti,

is it normal protocol to always fight to get your pips back before end of trading day and this is how u teach your trainees as well? so, book doesn't fall behind too much in reaching a weekly target figure(??? - not sure of this at the banks as well)... or more of for mindset and habit conditioning.

anyway, love the running battles... adds another dimension to the learning... especially, in these weird market conditions...

Cheers,
bl
  • #4,870
  • Aug 4, 2008 11:50am Aug 4, 2008 11:50am
Quoting luSan
Sepuuku?...kiddding me?...Only have scout out...and waiting for the cows to come home...

the flow?...Confusing news action...my economical analysis said..."hey, good for bulls"...news, looks like a no event...we return to the beginning of london open...so bulls, I think, are fighting hard
Hi Lusan lets see, if the Bulls wanna play.
I look at the USD/Yen daily chart, can't help it but feel like it trapped betwwen the rocks and a hard place.

regards

OK Battlestations, old chaps
  • #4,871
  • Aug 4, 2008 11:51am Aug 4, 2008 11:51am
Quoting gfsr
Hello fti,

is it normal protocol to always fight to get your pips back before end of trading day and this is how u teach your trainees as well? so, book doesn't fall behind too much in reaching a weekly target figure(??? - not sure of this at the banks as well)... or more of for mindset and habit conditioning.

anyway, still enjoying the running battles... adds another dimension to the learning... especially, in these weird market conditions...

Cheers,
bl
gsfr,

fti is quite a different breed from most of us, maybe he's conditioned for years. He has already shown that he does take losses now and then but ui dont think anyone of us could beat him for stamina. I've read him fight for two days to even out his book. For us, im not sure if its remotely doable without burning out.
  • #4,872
  • Aug 4, 2008 11:53am Aug 4, 2008 11:53am
Quoting fti
Hi Mr. G,
Thanks for the info.

For us , this is no summer holiday.
Do the best we can, not withstanding.
Fight tooth and nails , if we have to.

For me, gone are the days of corporation perks.
But I am blessed with freedom.

regards
I was more curious if you've heard about Pavlov's Traders Rule and if so, can you explain what it is... I have seen the reference to Pavlov's Traders Rule a few times laity on the thompson's news feed
thks
  • #4,873
  • Aug 4, 2008 12:02pm Aug 4, 2008 12:02pm
Quoting fti
Hi Lusan lets see, if the Bulls wanna play.
I look at the USD/Yen daily chart, can't help it but feel like it trapped betwwen the rocks and a hard place.

regards

OK Battlestations, old chaps
Correct...Stocked..they cannot get out from the gate..from the yen..so you think that U/Y goes south?...actually that is what 5M is saying...am I again a Pig or Seppuku?...I mean: rescue mode.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #4,874
  • Aug 4, 2008 12:04pm Aug 4, 2008 12:04pm
Quoting jest1081
gsfr,

fti is quite a different breed from most of us, maybe he's conditioned for years. He has already shown that he does take losses now and then but ui dont think anyone of us could beat him for stamina. I've read him fight for two days to even out his book. For us, im not sure if its remotely doable without burning out.

Hello jest,

have to agree with you. fti sure does have enduring strength and energy to battle it out... superman. : -)

cheers,
  • #4,875
  • Aug 4, 2008 12:07pm Aug 4, 2008 12:07pm
Lusan,

i dont think thats what FTI want you to think. He's just saying that USD/JPY dont have the momentum to surge upwards, it seeems to be stalling for some reason, to be short right now? I dont think anyone is tango-ing that way yet, less ur doinf nimble swing scalps.
  • #4,876
  • Aug 4, 2008 12:12pm Aug 4, 2008 12:12pm
Quoting jest1081
Lusan,

i dont think thats what FTI want you to think. He's just saying that USD/JPY dont have the momentum to surge upwards, it seeems to be stalling for some reason, to be short right now? I dont think anyone is tango-ing that way yet, less ur doinf nimble swing scalps.
that is exactly what I meant...I am an early bull...I saw the U/J ..thanks for making it even more clear...

I just rescued...talking a short break...Gosh...today it is actually my first full trading day...the feel is so different...Back in 10
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #4,877
  • Aug 4, 2008 12:13pm Aug 4, 2008 12:13pm
EUR and YEN looks ugly, while the Queen.....she's sexy! (Well at least she knows where she wants to go)

Ok guys, im feeling the zzzz monster already, 1.2% to the book today. yes, im getting used to the bigger sizes now. The legs are still shaking at lvl4 but im getting a hang of it. See ya'll
  • #4,878
  • Aug 4, 2008 12:14pm Aug 4, 2008 12:14pm
Hi FTI & other smart contributors in this thread,

I've been reading a lot of threads on FF since late 2006 but I actually discovered this thread around mid December 2007 but paid little attention to it.
I eventually registered as a member on FF around March 2008. Ever since, I've been digging very deep into all that you've presented here (very complex stuff but I think a lot of people here don't realize this even the so called members - sorry !!!).
I'm a quiet person by nature and I always prefer to stay quiet to assimilate uptimally. However, it will be a great dis-service not to at least say THANK YOU for all that you've freely given and for you precious time share with all of us here.

Great stuff that will keep me busy in terms of thought process, analytical evaluation & research for the next 1-2 years.

FTI, Thank you, Thank you and Thank you.

Special regards,

Nuplanet
  • #4,879
  • Aug 4, 2008 12:15pm Aug 4, 2008 12:15pm
Quoting Mr. G.
I was more curious if you've heard about Pavlov's Traders Rule and if so, can you explain what it is... I have seen the reference to Pavlov's Traders Rule a few times laity on the thompson's news feed
thks
Hi Mr, G
I think its about trading to the edge, and pushing some more, Or something like that. I think this for yuppy dealers.
I'm not from that school of thoughts.
I'm more from "the book" school . "Make the book, the bottom line is king."

regards
  • #4,880
  • Aug 4, 2008 12:19pm Aug 4, 2008 12:19pm
Quoting luSan
Correct...Stocked..they cannot get out from the gate..from the yen..so you think that U/Y goes south?...actually that is what 5M is saying...am I again a Pig or Seppuku?...I mean: rescue mode.
Hi Lusan,
I think you may be on track, but you sure are gonna watch the grass grow.

regards
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