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  • #2,041
  • Aug 3, 2008 10:05am Aug 3, 2008 10:05am
EUR-USD
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Time hides Nothing
  • #2,042
  • Aug 3, 2008 10:39am Aug 3, 2008 10:39am
I've often wondered the same thing. I've also wondered just how far back most people go to figure these points. In other words how far back is too far to be relevant for todays market. It seems there will be a point of "no relevance" for each time frame. Oh well; just thinking out loud.
Hej.
  • #2,043
  • Edited 12:06pm Aug 3, 2008 11:50am | Edited 12:06pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Thanks Ironman for your intro to August I've been nervous about it myself cause I've heard a lot of talk about the dreaded month but haven't really known exactly what to expect - I'm glad to learn the market still moves!!!

Just a quick question on how you determine important levels....

It seems if you draw a random horizontal line anywhere on the chart you can scroll back and find countless times it has been used as both support and resistance so my question is this..

When is a s/r point (turning range) not a s/r (turning range) point>?

Sound like a stupid question but I think an answer here will clarify my understanding of how you go about finding these points.

I've attached a chart of GBP/USD of what I think are potential turning points - Any comments would be much appreciated cheers

The thick lines are Major points the normal lines are minor ones and the dotted line is a weaker one (In my interpretation)

Also... How many pairs do you guys watch at once?

Cheers
i always start with the monthly chart, looking for price flips. then going down to weekly, daily,240. lower is whipsaw. on the higher TF's those price flips might not look that major, but when you zoom in you see what's going on. i watch 18 fx pairs and gold, silver , crude, commodity futures

i have attached a current chart of the aussie. 1 is the upper tl i suppose as resistance and 2 is the current support. price sits on the ema 150, price flip zone and the 61.8 fib from the last correction. on the daily. imho heavy confluence. also we have a 240 pin bar forming off of the confluence level. if we are not gapping down on the open tonight i pretty much suppose a bounce northwards.

when looking for such areas you always try to find confluence. don't draw too exotic trendlines or s/r lines. the simpler the line, the more people also have seen it and the more people are ready for this trade
trading is all about manipulation and mass psychology.


another point which might give you a hint if such a level holds or not is the volume and spread. a s/r level is most likely broken, when the spread of the bar hammering on it is high and volume also. if you see tight spread bars with low volume on levels of s/r you might see the price reverse from this level.
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  • #2,044
  • Aug 3, 2008 4:56pm Aug 3, 2008 4:56pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
When is a s/r point (turning range) not a s/r (turning range) point>?
Dear Cindy

On Cable particularly, I would suggest that you examine the 76.4% level.

In my experience on Cable, 76.4%+ Fibo levels maybe 4 times out of 5 are complete reversal levels.

Take last week for example... check out the 76.4% levels on Cable.

By my calculations there are at least 4 significant swing points on Cable, worth up to 568 PIPs if you caught them all.

Gotta put your stop just above the 100% level as Cable often goes over the 76.4% level ... 88.6% is sometimes a stopping point.

Add in the other S+R bounces and the total potential profit goes up a lot.

Use the BRV S+R level closest to the 76.4% level as your turning point.

I think this approach works well for all volatile pairs, eg Cable, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF, etc.

I'm going to be looking for these trades in the coming week.

Sample chart attached.

I'd be interested to hear any comments on this idea.

(On the odd case where 76.4% doesn't hold it, and price closes decisively beyond the 76.4% level on the 1-hr chart, you can very often just take your stop penalty and go for the short / long beyond 76.4%, which is usually a good one.. more than enough to make up your previous loss on the stop.)

I am suggesting this as a possible approach to home in on those BRV S+R levels that hold out the highest probability of becoming complete reversal levels.

Don't generalise and try to apply this approach to all pairs.. only the more volatile pairs go as far as the 76.4% level before reversing.

I think that on other less volatile pairs, eg EUR/USD, you can see the same effect, but at lower Fibo levels, eg 61.8% or even 50%.

As always, let your BRV S+R levels be your guide - they are by far the most accurate and reliable.

Pure BRV S+R trading could have led you to some great profits on Cable last week.

The question I am trying to answer for myself is, "Which of those BRV S+R levels would represent complete reversal points, ie a good swing point ?".

Cheers, loudoniii
.
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  • #2,045
  • Aug 3, 2008 5:25pm Aug 3, 2008 5:25pm
tanks tanks tanks tanks tank a million,ur post is timely, happy to hear from you, pls keep up your good work
Quoting Iron-man
It all started here. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=324

Don't worry there's plenty of info to trade on here as well as the occassional product validation.
  • #2,046
  • Aug 3, 2008 5:36pm Aug 3, 2008 5:36pm
I gotta admit, this "support & resistance" strategy is quite a success. It seems that with prices bouncing off of S&R the way they do this is probably one of the most exciting threads on FF. I say that as a newbie who has never made a live trade and did not know what a currency pair was until late June this year. This thread though is a seemingly the real deal. In my demo trading I began scalping and then moved up to emulating trades posted here on NB but now it is time that I read every single post by BRV on post # 1 many times over and really began to study S&R and figuring all this out, looking back on charts, but then more importantly creating a daily game plan like BRV does based on opportunities that might present themselves today and then beginning to act on them as they become available.

thanks to all that make this thread what it is.....truly a blessing for those that have "ears to hear."

Best,
Kyle
The way is narrow
  • #2,047
  • Aug 3, 2008 7:45pm Aug 3, 2008 7:45pm
As my usual posts go......price has hit the 61.8% retracement level and stochs are oversold on most time frames (weekly, daily, 4H). Also the 61.8% retracement level happens to fall in line with the 200 ema on the Daily chart.
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  • #2,048
  • Aug 3, 2008 9:36pm Aug 3, 2008 9:36pm
hmmm... this is interesting... i've been using almost similar strategy.. i normally call it.. "the way of the samurai"...just to have fun! but i gotta read more on the infos on the first page.. will learn from this guys!
  • #2,049
  • Aug 3, 2008 9:53pm Aug 3, 2008 9:53pm
while i'm reading, anybody here went long for AU? my samurai is in it..
  • #2,050
  • Aug 3, 2008 9:57pm Aug 3, 2008 9:57pm
Quoting winston
while i'm reading, anybody here went long for AU? my samurai is in it..
winston,
still pinoy in lion city??? r u doing FX full time??

sonic
  • #2,051
  • Aug 3, 2008 9:57pm Aug 3, 2008 9:57pm
Thank you Dr Geppynius and Loudoniii - Theres some great help on this thread cheers
Time hides Nothing
  • #2,052
  • Aug 3, 2008 10:00pm Aug 3, 2008 10:00pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Thank you Dr Geppynius and Loudoniii - Theres some great help on this thread cheers
Cindy,
I 'd like to see AUD/USD H4 analysis of urs....

thx
sonic
  • #2,053
  • Aug 3, 2008 10:03pm Aug 3, 2008 10:03pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
winston,
still pinoy in lion city??? r u doing FX full time??

sonic
nah... my thread is boring!

so, i'll join thread where i find the same way of trading.. this looks like it!!

yeah.. full time to take a break from work..
  • #2,054
  • Aug 3, 2008 10:07pm Aug 3, 2008 10:07pm
Quoting winston
while i'm reading, anybody here went long for AU? my samurai is in it..
momentum is not really strong... anyway, our samurai is already safe on this...
  • #2,055
  • Aug 3, 2008 11:02pm Aug 3, 2008 11:02pm
i got my samurai on the lookout for EJ...
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  • #2,056
  • Aug 3, 2008 11:32pm Aug 3, 2008 11:32pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
Cindy,
I 'd like to see AUD/USD H4 analysis of urs....

thx
sonic
Ok ?? here it is....
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Time hides Nothing
  • #2,057
  • Aug 3, 2008 11:37pm Aug 3, 2008 11:37pm
Quoting winston
i got my samurai on the lookout for EJ...
167.5x..here I come..

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1217822569

sonic
  • #2,058
  • Aug 3, 2008 11:50pm Aug 3, 2008 11:50pm
Quoting ssteiner87
As my usual posts go......price has hit the 61.8% retracement level and stochs are oversold on most time frames (weekly, daily, 4H). Also the 61.8% retracement level happens to fall in line with the 200 ema on the Daily chart.
so are you long at this point? or will you wait for news to come out on either currency to confirm the direction? my chart reads the same as yours, but im sceptical that maybe its just testing the 61.8 fib level, i want to open long on this pair but i will maybe wait until the mayjor news is released for the aussie tomorrow.
  • #2,059
  • Aug 4, 2008 12:06am Aug 4, 2008 12:06am
Quoting sonicdeejay
167.5x..here I come..

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1217822569

sonic
A lot of resistance there Daily R1 15m 200 EMA and of course horizontal S/R
Time hides Nothing
  • #2,060
  • Edited 12:31am Aug 4, 2008 12:13am | Edited 12:31am
- deleted -
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