Somehow, this thread now seems to be the main outlet for the Pouria method, so I post here...
I've spent the day manually backtesting the data for GBPUSD and then optimizing SLs and TPs usin a computer program. I tested Jan through Oct 2006. Initially intended to go further, but the results were pretty stable, so I stopped after 10 months.
I've used signals provided by Lux' indicator. Somehow, it missed a few good trades (don't know, why), but I sticked to it for the sick of objectivity. Nevertheless, the backtesting that served as input to the optimization program has a subjective element in it (I don't know, how the price behaved in real time), so take the results with MUCH caution.
Anyway, these are the results. As it frequently happens with GBPUSD (anyone knows, why?), most trades on Tuesdays were losers. So I just eliminated all Tuesday trades. There are some Asian hours that seem to be not profitable (like midnight to 0200 GMT), but there is not enough data to decide, so I left them in.
The system produced 136 trades in 10 months. I found that the optimal SL would be 32 p., and TP - 56 p. (not accounting for spread). Assuming a 4 p. spread, 58% of trades would be winners, and 42% losers. Altogether, 2000 pips would be earned net during these months. I think, it's quite fair. More pips can be made using a 46 p. SL, however, this would not be optimal in terms of MM (see the Kelly discussion earlier in this thread).
Clearly, used with fixed SL and TP, the method doesn't allow for making the most from long trends. There were about 20 nice 200 p.+ trends that were not "taken care of" by the method. I'm not sure it must take care of everything... Personally, I got in love with SHI channels used in Perky's fxovereasy method (it may be known to some people here as Barishpolets channels), so I'll try in future to combine them. But this would be another method - and we still know too little about Pouria in its pure form...
I've spent the day manually backtesting the data for GBPUSD and then optimizing SLs and TPs usin a computer program. I tested Jan through Oct 2006. Initially intended to go further, but the results were pretty stable, so I stopped after 10 months.
I've used signals provided by Lux' indicator. Somehow, it missed a few good trades (don't know, why), but I sticked to it for the sick of objectivity. Nevertheless, the backtesting that served as input to the optimization program has a subjective element in it (I don't know, how the price behaved in real time), so take the results with MUCH caution.
Anyway, these are the results. As it frequently happens with GBPUSD (anyone knows, why?), most trades on Tuesdays were losers. So I just eliminated all Tuesday trades. There are some Asian hours that seem to be not profitable (like midnight to 0200 GMT), but there is not enough data to decide, so I left them in.
The system produced 136 trades in 10 months. I found that the optimal SL would be 32 p., and TP - 56 p. (not accounting for spread). Assuming a 4 p. spread, 58% of trades would be winners, and 42% losers. Altogether, 2000 pips would be earned net during these months. I think, it's quite fair. More pips can be made using a 46 p. SL, however, this would not be optimal in terms of MM (see the Kelly discussion earlier in this thread).
Clearly, used with fixed SL and TP, the method doesn't allow for making the most from long trends. There were about 20 nice 200 p.+ trends that were not "taken care of" by the method. I'm not sure it must take care of everything... Personally, I got in love with SHI channels used in Perky's fxovereasy method (it may be known to some people here as Barishpolets channels), so I'll try in future to combine them. But this would be another method - and we still know too little about Pouria in its pure form...
sans peur et sans reproche
