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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #181
  • Feb 11, 2007 12:31am Feb 11, 2007 12:31am
Quoting mcmep11
Do these mid market rates usually hold up at open or do they tend to return to what you see with your broker? (I am new to the idea of midmarket rates)
It seems to be some of both. Have seen it return near or at Friday close. Have seen it jump. But not as much as indicated in other posts here.


Not sure what to think? Hoping the up move is correct on gbppy but hope the EurUsd price xe is showing is not true. 1.2900 or so.

Lou
  • #182
  • Feb 11, 2007 12:44am Feb 11, 2007 12:44am
If the move held up at open, I stand to win about 150 pips on 10 different positions. So that would be nice, (although I wont count on it).

What causes all the movements in the midmarket? as I refresh I get a constantly changing price. Is there some market open on weekends?


Quoting Lou
It seems to be some of both. Have seen it return near or at Friday close. Have seen it jump. But not as much as indicated in other posts here.


Not sure what to think? Hoping the up move is correct on gbppy but hope the EurUsd price xe is showing is not true. 1.2900 or so.

Lou
  • #183
  • Feb 11, 2007 12:48am Feb 11, 2007 12:48am
It is incredible the way prices are bouncing around this weekend. Most recent prices on yen crosses from Real Time Forex Quotes is poundyen 236.96, EJ 157.96 and UJ 122.45. Apart from the activity of yen crosses there does not seem to be much else moving at the present time.

I am getting dizzy with all the ups and downs and I have absolutely no idea where the market will open tomorrow.
  • #184
  • Feb 11, 2007 2:57am Feb 11, 2007 2:57am
Yen may slump against pound in short-term again above 240.00. Next move will depend on UK and Japan fundamentals, but if BoJ will not hike aggressive slump may drag to whole year.
  • #185
  • Feb 11, 2007 6:26am Feb 11, 2007 6:26am
This is suppose to be real time quotes. I hope they are right because I have several buy stops on the gbp/jpy and gbp/chf.
  • #186
  • Feb 11, 2007 12:26pm Feb 11, 2007 12:26pm
Quoting moonchild
I have been watching Real Time Forex Quotes and according to them the prices have been all over the place this weekend, some of them first up then down. Their latest quote for poundyen is 235.27.

I can believe that it is trading at that price, I just cannot make sense of why. With such a weak statement from G7, LOGICALLY the carry trade pairs should be rising at a rapid rate, not dropping through the floor. But this is hardly the first time that the market has not made sense.
The G7 was not meant for the likes of us. If we were sitting on a "massive" short Yen position, we just might be a tad nervous this morning.
They call me "Hondo"
  • #187
  • Feb 11, 2007 2:23pm Feb 11, 2007 2:23pm
I've seen false spikes that have stopped me out but afterwards the broker (Oanda) has credited the account. The main thing to be watching for at open is a gap. Nature doesn't like gaps and they will always be filled, eventually.
  • #188
  • Feb 11, 2007 2:24pm Feb 11, 2007 2:24pm
who will long gpbjpy today?
Sorry about my english...
  • #189
  • Feb 11, 2007 2:41pm Feb 11, 2007 2:41pm
Quoting eventtrading
The G7 was not meant for the likes of us. If we were sitting on a "massive" short Yen position, we just might be a tad nervous this morning.
Anyone holding a yen short position is therefore long on the various carry trade pairs. It very well may be that a drop in the pairs which would represent a serious loss for any of us is not for them since it is highly likely that they have been long since the currency was 210 or so. This amount of drop is not hurting them one bit since they are in it for the interest not particularly for the trading gains. Only moves down which are large and 'permanent' rather than a dip or spike down are potentially harmful to them.
  • #190
  • Feb 11, 2007 2:47pm Feb 11, 2007 2:47pm
Quoting CIORIMAU--
who will long gpbjpy today?
I am going to straddle +/- 100 the GBPJPY at the open.
I am addicted to chaos. That's why I trade forex.
  • #191
  • Feb 11, 2007 3:01pm Feb 11, 2007 3:01pm
I have noticed quite a few times in the past that when a pair makes a move in one direction (usually as a spike) over the weekend, even if the price returns to at or close to the closing price, the pair usually will go in the direction of the weekend move, if not right away, then later in the week.

The problem with the moves this weekend is that they have been all over the place and this does not give me any clue as to the direction for this coming week. A move in just one direction would have.
  • #192
  • Feb 11, 2007 3:08pm Feb 11, 2007 3:08pm
market already juz opened for trading on my platform with all pairs diff of about 10-20 points from close on friday..
  • #193
  • Feb 11, 2007 5:02pm Feb 11, 2007 5:02pm
Normally,what is the side of yours stop losses if you are a daytrade?50 pips??and if you are a swing trader?100 pips?
Sorry about my english...
  • #194
  • Feb 11, 2007 5:08pm Feb 11, 2007 5:08pm
Chart with the fibs from last week
Attached Image
  • #195
  • Feb 11, 2007 5:19pm Feb 11, 2007 5:19pm
Daily Chart
Attached Image
  • #196
  • Feb 11, 2007 6:00pm Feb 11, 2007 6:00pm
look at the gap
Sorry about my english...
  • #197
  • Feb 11, 2007 6:01pm Feb 11, 2007 6:01pm
just nice get back home a minute ago and what do I see all longs TP thats a good start I think (sorry but just happy normally I think)

If I go long like I wrote there is "no" SL -would say perhaps if really falls to 235,30 or even 234,80 then I would sell it again and wait. I just traded it a few times and Im not a profi for GBP/JPY but every time I trade it the market comes back (perhaps its too risky) like the last time I had 3 longs open from thursday (237.81/237.34/236.62) end TP (238.50/238.50/237.62) like I said it just works ---> long I didnt test it short but like they say dont short it...
I just shorted the pairs u/j e/j g/j lets see (thats risky but lets try and this tim e with small SL

happy pipping
  • #198
  • Feb 11, 2007 6:02pm Feb 11, 2007 6:02pm
sorry for this english again ! cant explain and write very well in english !
thanks Pedolino
  • #199
  • Feb 11, 2007 6:05pm Feb 11, 2007 6:05pm
Pedolino,what s price do you short gpbjpy?
Sorry about my english...
  • #200
  • Edited 6:21pm Feb 11, 2007 6:18pm | Edited 6:21pm
too late 238.11 (just saw it and shorted there was no brain in function to this time) just hoping to see it fall again to 237...and not brake out over 238 SL will be- 238.90 (this are 80pips I know but for this pair...)
normally !!should have wait cause of the big jump up at opening perhaps there is some more vola in there for up so its really risky!!!
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