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  • #1,861
  • Edited 5:29am Aug 3, 2008 5:26am | Edited 5:29am
Quoting ricki72
it is not the first PSAR dot above the candle that gives the signal, so acc. to Ash´s rules, it is not a signal ... in my opinion. Or is also the second PSAR dot valid?
On the first PSAR dot above the candle the AC is green -> so no signal.

It looks fine on my chart. MT4 & FXDD.

Are you looking at the Daily chart?

Note my screen says North Finance but this is the FXDD feed. Its just that I originally download MT4 from North Finance
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  • #1,862
  • Aug 3, 2008 6:25am Aug 3, 2008 6:25am
strange... i use the demo version of MT4
why is it different?
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  • #1,863
  • Aug 3, 2008 6:27am Aug 3, 2008 6:27am
may be because of the time zone..
i live in Germany and there it is not a signal !!!
  • #1,864
  • Aug 3, 2008 6:51am Aug 3, 2008 6:51am
Quoting ricki72
may be because of the time zone..
i live in Germany and there it is not a signal !!!
What broker are you going through? Ash has based this system on FXDD where the new daily candle opens at 22h00 UK time (GMT+1). You will see differences if you use another time frame or broker.

Also are you using the template from the first post?
  • #1,865
  • Aug 3, 2008 7:14am Aug 3, 2008 7:14am
i don´t know... i downloaded MT4 some months ago just to see, i don´t have an account on FXDD but i will have soon.

Quote
Also are you using the template from the first post?
you mean the PDF?
yes i do.

But you see how a signal can be suddenly not a signal depending on the time frame??
This is not logic somehow...
  • #1,866
  • Aug 3, 2008 7:26am Aug 3, 2008 7:26am
Quoting ricki72
i don´t know... i downloaded MT4 some months ago just to see, i don´t have an account on FXDD but i will have soon.


you mean the PDF?
yes i do.
No. You should apply the template (.tpl file) from the first post to ensure you have the correct setting for the indicators.

Quote
But you see how a signal can be suddenly not a signal depending on the time frame??
This is not logic somehow...

I think it is logical as the indicators are working on different data. On one feed there could have been a big move and will show on the current candle but on another feed ( with diff timezone ) that same move will be included in the next candle
  • #1,867
  • Aug 3, 2008 9:00am Aug 3, 2008 9:00am
Quoting ricki72
i don´t know... i downloaded MT4 some months ago just to see, i don´t have an account on FXDD but i will have soon.
But you see how a signal can be suddenly not a signal depending on the time frame??
This is not logic somehow...
You need to download a MT4 demo from FXDD. Save the template file (AshFX_Daily.tpl) from the first post to the template folder. Then after re-starting MT4 apply the template file to your charts. Brokers that have a Sunday bar or different opening times will show different signals. Having a Sunday bar creates a 6 day week with one day showing very little movement. This can effect mathimatical calculations. Since Ash created and tested his system on FXDD it is a good idea to learn the system on that demo. It also helps so you can compare trades with others in the thread. You can have MT4 platforms from more than one broker on your computer. If you compare a couple of them every day you will see the difference. It is always possible that another platform with modified parameters may work just as well or better. Time will tell.
  • #1,868
  • Aug 3, 2008 9:13am Aug 3, 2008 9:13am
Quoting ricki72
may be because of the time zone..
i live in Germany and there it is not a signal !!!
Hi,

My chart is showing the same as yours because the setting of the PSAR is at 0.03/0.2.

I have tested it by changing the setting to 0.02/0.2 and I get the entry signal.

So what is the official setting for PSAR?
  • #1,869
  • Aug 3, 2008 9:17am Aug 3, 2008 9:17am
Quoting Harry123
Hi,

My chart is showing the same as yours because the setting of the PSAR is at 0.03/0.2.

I have tested it by changing the setting to 0.02/0.2 and I get the entry signal.

So what is the official setting for PSAR?
A specific broker's server times are the same in every country. An FXDD account will have the same server time and the chart will display the same everywhere in the world. The PSAR settings are in the first post. "Parabolic Stop and Reverse (PSAR, 0.03, 0.2)"
  • #1,870
  • Aug 3, 2008 12:13pm Aug 3, 2008 12:13pm
Quoting dengzhi
10% a month is an unrealistic goal, you are on your path to failure with that kind of thinking.

try 1-5% (heck try anything above 0 for that matter!).. for a consistent 6 months......... forex.. don't quit your day job!

Thanks for the advise, but I believe that is a very narrow minded view of what can be achieved. If it works for you then by all means keep the faith.
  • #1,871
  • Aug 3, 2008 12:49pm Aug 3, 2008 12:49pm
Hi Everyone,

Interesting to see that there has been some talk about the profitability of this system and the money management aspect. I would like to throw in my thoughts and I am interested what others think.

I have monitored the system rigorously during July and, if the rules were strictly adhered to, then the system is in loss. Looking at the trades I believe the reason for this is the risk to reward for second strength trades. Have a look back to 9th July at GBP/CHF and AUD/CAD and also 15th July to EUR/CHF, EUR/JPY and USD/JPY to see heavily losing trades. Those trades alone could have lost in excess of 1200 pips and indeed you would double that for the two lots that the system suggests are risked for each trade - 2400+ pips!

Now, if winning trades, massively outnumber those that lose and the second part of the trade runs on to a big win then that may not be a problem. However, quite often the second trade reverts to the break even stop loss. So, the profit is the first lot only which generally is a lot less than the risk.

Now, it may be that July is not a representative month. And, I should add, I have not given up on the system because of July's results. However, I am adopting a more conservative money management strategy for the second strength trades (see the post by AIRX3000 for further details earlier in the thread) whilst still monitoring the trades against the system that Ash designed. It could be that future months may be fine.

One final thing I would add is that I wouldn't rely on any of the EA's results just yet. As far as I am aware none of them have been tested enough to suggest that they are error free and, as such, I don't think anyone should be basing their trading strategy on them (apologies to those guys writing the EA's - I am sure that they will be of great benefit in the future).

Just my thoughts, I may not be infallible with my analysis but I thought I would put my point of view for discussion.
James The Beekeeper
  • #1,872
  • Aug 3, 2008 1:08pm Aug 3, 2008 1:08pm
Quoting edeyj999
Hi Everyone,

Interesting to see that there has been some talk about the profitability of this system and the money management aspect. I would like to throw in my thoughts and I am interested what others think.

I have monitored the system rigorously during July and, if the rules were strictly adhered to, then the system is in loss. Looking at the trades I believe the reason for this is the risk to reward for second strength trades.
Your post, IMHO, nicely illustrates the danger of taking any system and putting it on auto-pilot. This system was not meant to totally replace trader discretion. If you look back at previous posts, you will see a number of examples where Ash, the system creator, passed on a trade due to strong support or resistance.

Signals are merely that . . . a signal for each trader to take a look at a currency pair and then make a decision as to whether it's a trade they feel comfortable with. I have only been tracking results for the last couple of weeks, but in that time I have probably taken only about 50% of the AshFX signals. Blending the signal with some discretion has allowed me to earn about 550 pips in that time.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #1,873
  • Aug 3, 2008 1:09pm Aug 3, 2008 1:09pm
Quoting dengzhi
10% a month is an unrealistic goal, you are on your path to failure with that kind of thinking.

try 1-5% (heck try anything above 0 for that matter!).. for a consistent 6 months......... forex.. don't quit your day job!
Quoting Aliassmith
Thanks for the advise, but I believe that is a very narrow minded view of what can be achieved. If it works for you then by all means keep the faith.
Henry Ford said it best: “If you think you can…. or if you think you can’t…you’re right!”

60 years ago, running a 4-minute mile was an "unrealistic goal". 50 years ago, getting a man to the moon was an "unrealistic goal", and so it goes throughout history.

Will you achieve a 10% monthly return? Maybe . . . maybe not. But I think your chances are better if you believe it can be done versus calling it an "unrealistic goal."
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #1,874
  • Aug 3, 2008 1:16pm Aug 3, 2008 1:16pm
Quoting yen44x
Henry Ford said it best: “If you think you can…. or if you think you can’t…you’re right!”

60 years ago, running a 4-minute mile was an "unrealistic goal". 50 years ago, getting a man to the moon was an "unrealistic goal", and so it goes throughout history.

Will you achieve a 10% monthly return? Maybe . . . maybe not. But I think your chances are better if you believe it can be done versus calling it an "unrealistic goal."

There is nothing more powerfull than positive thinking!

Nice one Yen.
  • #1,875
  • Aug 3, 2008 1:18pm Aug 3, 2008 1:18pm
Quoting yen44x
Your post, IMHO, nicely illustrates the danger of taking any system and putting it on auto-pilot. This system was not meant to totally replace trader discretion. If you look back at previous posts, you will see a number of examples where Ash, the system creator, passed on a trade due to strong support or resistance.

Signals are merely that . . . a signal for each trader to take a look at a currency pair and then make a decision as to whether it's a trade they feel comfortable with. I have only been tracking results for the last couple of weeks, but in that time I have probably taken only about 50% of the AshFX signals. Blending the signal with some discretion has allowed me to earn about 550 pips in that time.
You are correct Yen. Couldn't agree more about trader discretion. However, the risk/reward for some trades is not advantageous regardless of whether the individual thinks the trades will be successful.

If you don't mind me asking, do you use the money management from the scheme, or one of your own for the trades you take?
James The Beekeeper
  • #1,876
  • Aug 3, 2008 1:31pm Aug 3, 2008 1:31pm
Quoting edeyj999
You are correct Yen. Couldn't agree more about trader discretion. However, the risk/reward for some trades is not advantageous regardless of whether the individual thinks the trades will be successful.
I agree completely, and that tends to be the trades I stay away from.

Quote
If you don't mind me asking, do you use the money management from the scheme, or one of your own for the trades you take?
I'm using a blend of the two. I tend to take profits on the first lot a little earlier than the rules state. For example, if my first target is 175 pips, I'm usually more than content to put my first lot to bed at 100 pips. By the same token, though, I think it's ill-advised to close out the first lot at 25-30 pips, which I've seen done at times, simply because a system based on Daily charts should be able to generate far more profit that that if it's worthwhile at all.

Likewise, on the second lot, I'm not going to sit by and watch the profits disappear on a trade that's up considerably. At some point, I will cash in on the winnings prior to seeing the trade return to breakeven. For example, on the recent eur/usd short, I was up on the second lot over 200 pips. Price then retraced over 175 pips, and I decided to close the second lot at +100. It has since moved back down, but it ended the day at a previous S & R level, so I'm content with my decision.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #1,877
  • Aug 3, 2008 2:27pm Aug 3, 2008 2:27pm
Quoting yen44x
I agree completely, and that tends to be the trades I stay away from.

I'm using a blend of the two. I tend to take profits on the first lot a little earlier than the rules state. For example, if my first target is 175 pips, I'm usually more than content to put my first lot to bed at 100 pips. By the same token, though, I think it's ill-advised to close out the first lot at 25-30 pips, which I've seen done at times, simply because a system based on Daily charts should be able to generate far more profit that that if it's worthwhile at all.

Likewise, on the second lot, I'm not going to sit by and watch the profits disappear on a trade that's up considerably. At some point, I will cash in on the winnings prior to seeing the trade return to breakeven. For example, on the recent eur/usd short, I was up on the second lot over 200 pips. Price then retraced over 175 pips, and I decided to close the second lot at +100. It has since moved back down, but it ended the day at a previous S & R level, so I'm content with my decision.
Im just going to throw my 2 cents in here. Its good read both your points of view, and both of you are on the money. From what I have learned by using the system since July is this 1. If you look at the indicators to tell you when to buy and when to sell, in the long run you will probably end up loosing. I dont look at the indicators to tell me when to trade, I look at it as an invitation to look more into the price action of the pair, such as support, resistance, trends etc.. this is where it becomes discretionary. 2. I have seen all my trades in July hit the profit target on the first lot, only to have all the second lot close at break even. This is where I will listen to Yen's advice and adjust to taking profits on my second trade, whether it is by a trailing stop or just adjusting my stop loss when I am in the green, either way I dont want to be up 200 pips and see it break even 2 days later, that hurts. I had a great month in July, but it would have been that much better if I would have taken profits on the second trade.

I backtested this system for myself over the weekend, on one of the pairs I tested since 2005 out of over 100 trades, only one kept going on the second trade without breaking even first, it made +589 pips. Every other second trade either broke even or closed at very little. Those are not good odds.

Sorry not trying to hijack your conversation, just wanted to share my information.
  • #1,878
  • Aug 3, 2008 3:09pm Aug 3, 2008 3:09pm
Hey Gang,

I love the Ash System and it usually makes a profit. That being said, I am retired as a Contractor of 30 years. I love spending the day on my charts every day. I don't use the Ash take profit rules. I exit while in profit and use a predetermined stop that is different for each trade depending upon what I see on the chart, support and resistance, fib., etc. I don't take many losses in any of my trades. By the way, I have seen many posts here where people report any losses... not just profit... but then I read the posts every day. Unless it's mandatory to be away from your computer (i.e.JOB), You shouldn't suffer many losses if your on your charts and know how to read what they are telling you.. If I was gone I would lower my TP in the trade and use a shorter stop loss of about 30 pips. When I'm on the chart and take a 10 pip loss out of existing profit, I'm usually out at that point. If it reverses, it's easy enough for me to get back in and I enjoy the extra pips I saved. Just my thoughts and strategy. Keep up the good work and posts gang and thanks again Ash. Eric
  • #1,879
  • Aug 3, 2008 3:23pm Aug 3, 2008 3:23pm
Many thanks for the feedback from all. Helps to hear other traders experiences.

Now back to the two potentials - EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. Both look tempting - worth a go, do you think?
James The Beekeeper
  • #1,880
  • Aug 3, 2008 3:24pm Aug 3, 2008 3:24pm

puuh...
lots of long posts with much forex-science and know how!
if it was in german it would be easyer for me.

But i follow half the way some how.
To the last one, Eric from Munich:
Did i understand it right?
You close the trade when for ex. the chart goes 10 pips in the wrong direction?
If i set my stop loss to 30 pips before i leave to work, then it would nearly always reach the stop loss. The waves always go up and down.
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